中诚信国际肯定了大众汽车集团（VolkswagenGroup，除大众汽车股份公司外，合并财务报表还包括由 大众汽车股份公司直接或间接控制的所有重要的德国和外国子公司，包括结构化公司，以下或简称"集 团"）领先的市场地位、显著的规模优势、极为宽广的产品谱系、先进的研发技术、畅通的融资渠道、 极高的收入规模和盈利能力整体处于高位等方面的优势。同时，中诚信国际也关注全球经济复苏情况和 贸易环境波动对汽车需求的冲击、电动化转型以及中国乘用车市场竞争激烈等对其经营和整体信用状况 造成的影响。 资料显示，大众汽车股份公司（VolkswagenAG，以下或简称"大众股份"）注册于德国沃尔夫斯堡，是 大众汽车集团（除大众汽车股份公司外，合并财务报表还包括由大众汽车股份公司直接或间接控制的所 有重要的德国和外国子公司，包括结构化公司。以下或简称"集团"）的母公司。集团是全球最大的汽车 制造商之一，旗下拥有大众、奥迪、保时捷、斯柯达等多个享誉世界的汽车品牌。集团由汽车业务部门 和金融服务业务部门组成，其中汽车部门主要业务包括开发、生产及销售乘用车、轻型商用车、卡车、 公共汽车、摩托车和零部件，以及制造大口径柴油发动机、涡轮机械等 ...

Group 1 - The IMF calls for the U.S. to reduce its fiscal deficit in light of rising debt burdens, emphasizing that the current deficit is too large [1][2] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over increasing debt, with projections indicating that the deficit-to-GDP ratio could rise from 6.4% last year to nearly 9% by 2035 if proposed tax cuts are implemented [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attributes the downgrade to the previous administration's policies and expresses a commitment to reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% before the end of the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 98% in the fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a continuous rise in debt levels [2] - Despite expectations of a decrease in the fiscal deficit due to rising tariff revenues, these forecasts do not account for the potential impacts of Trump's tax cut proposals currently under congressional review [2][4] - Concerns over the deficit and Moody's downgrade have led to a weakening of the dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.04%, the highest level in 2023 [3][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the deficit implies that the government will need to issue more bonds, raising questions about the stability of the U.S. market among domestic and international investors [4] - The IMF has revised down its economic growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.8% and for global growth to 2.8%, factoring in the effects of Trump's tariffs [4] - Recent announcements of significant tariff reductions between the U.S. and China are seen as positive developments, although the actual tariff rates remain higher than last year, and uncertainties persist regarding the implementation of new tax rates [5]

债市"科技板"相关政策发布后，市场机构积极参与，整个市场显示出衔枚疾进的态势。 多家机构对证券时报·券商中国记者表示，伴随科创债升级扩容和配套支持机制的不断完善，科创债市场 规模将进一步快速增长，科创债市场的发行人结构、期限结构、品种结构等将进一步优化，市场深度将进 一步走深，市场韧性将不断增强，有利于不断培育一二级联动、投融资协同的良好科创债市场生态。 债市"科技板"的加速建设，也给机构投资者带来了大量的机会。政策红利将驱动科创债市场供给扩容，产 品创新将拓宽收益空间，二级市场流动性将进一步提升，市场深度和韧性有望不断加深增强，科创债券品 种在"收益性、安全性、流动性"三个维度上将实现更好的平衡，投融资协同将进一步提升，这些都是科创 债市场发展给投资端带来的机遇。 政策夯实债市"科技板"基础 5月7日，央行、证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》，提出了一系列鼓励债 市"科技板"建设的政策，其中"创新信用评级体系"和"完善风险分散分担机制"等政策均是以创新制度机 制供给来更好适配科技企业融资需求，破解科创融资难点和痛点。 第一创业证券有关负责人告诉证券时报·券商中国记者，"创新信用评级体系 ...

特朗普又放大招，对中国撂下狠话：84天内不签贸易协议，就加征关税，这话喊得响，可还没等中国回应，美国自个儿先掉链子了，美国的信用评级先被 穆迪砍了一刀，这下子，特朗普想靠关税吓唬人的底气，怕是得打个折扣。 各国拖着不谈，很显然不吃这一套，特朗普急得直跳脚，可信用崩盘的麻烦却让他有点慌了神，这场贸易大戏，特朗普还能不能唱下去？84天后，到底是 谁先眨眼？ 特朗普的关税威胁喊得凶，可各国却不怎么当回事，除了英国早早表态配合，其他国家像日本、欧盟、印度等，都在拖时间，摆出一副"慢慢来"的架势。 这种拖延不是无缘无故的，而是各国看透了特朗普的套路。 过去几个月，特朗普多次放狠话，最后却总给缓冲期，比如对加拿大和墨西哥的威胁，最后不了了之，对其他国家的关税喊话，也多半以延期收场。各国 心里有数，特朗普的威胁多半是喊喊罢了，真要动手，他也得掂量掂量。 文案|编辑：清 特朗普刚回到白宫，就迫不及待地挥起了关税大棒，对中国，他下了90天的最后通牒：要么签协议，要么加税，时间已经过去6天，只剩84天，对其他18 个国家，他也通过财长贝森特放出狠话，警告它们必须在90天内拿出诚意，否则关税会回到4月初的高水平。 这不是特朗普第一 ...

#夏季图文激励计划#'三A'这面旗：倒了，风往哪吹？ 钱，一个冰冷又现实的东西。评级，给钱打的分。三A，最高的等级。像武林里的盟主，像草原上的 王。谁拥有它，谁就拥有最高的信用，最低的借钱成本。美利坚，它曾拥有这最高的荣耀。这最后的'三A'，像一道坚不可摧的防线。现在，这道防线，被 划破了，三A，没了。 主权信用评级，被下调了。失去，最后一个三A。这意味着什么？风向，变了。江湖的目光，变得复杂。财政状况，有人说，将继续 恶化。借钱的成本，提高了。一分一厘，都是白花花的银子。债的压力，像山一样压过来。还债的能力，似乎也下降了。美股市场，有抛售的暗流在涌动。 美元，这枚硬币，似乎也站得没那么稳了。可能会走弱，无人知晓会弱多少，何时会弱。但变数，增加了。 全球的金融江湖，空气凝固了一瞬。然后，是 窃窃私语，是暗流涌动。三A，这面旗帜，倒下了。多少人曾在这面旗下，感到安心？感到强大？现在，那份安心，那份强大，有了裂痕。钱的流动，市场 的信心，都像受了惊的鸟群。它们的目光，盯着那面倒下的旗帜。随时可能，改变方向。 评级，不是凭空而来。它看的是冰冷的基本面，是财政的窟窿有多大，是债台高筑到何种程度。是江湖里，隐藏的病灶。 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]

在5月12日，中美两国通过协商，在关税问题上终于取得了初步进展，发布了联合声明，宣布双方将推进进一步谈判，并暂时冻结部分原定的加税措施。此 举本应为局势带来一些喘息机会，然而，现实并未如预期那般平稳发展。美国总统特朗普随即放出了强硬言辞，明确表示如果在90天内未能与中国签署正式 协议，便将恢复对中国商品加征关税。换句话说，中方仅剩84天的缓冲期，特朗普的强硬立场再度施压中方，给出了"签协议或加税"的清晰选择。 这一言论背后，除了对中方的压力，也体现出特朗普在全球谈判中的战略意图，即通过施压保持强势地位，迫使各方妥协。与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特 也向全球发出了警告，声称包括日本、德国、法国和印度在内的18个国家，如果未能在接下来的90天内与美国展开实质性的关税谈判，便将恢复此前宣布的 报复性关税。此举不禁让人感到，这不仅是对中国的外交施压，更是向全球其他国家发出的"最后通牒"，要求它们在短时间内作出回应，否则便面临关税加 征的严厉后果。 与此同时，美国国内经济的隐忧也在逐步显现。2025年5月初，美国一家主要信用评级机构宣布，将美国主权信用评级下调一级，理由是美国的财政赤字高 企、债务风险上升及外交政策的不确 ...

中原证券认为，周二A股市场高开高走、小幅震荡上行，盘中汽车、食品饮料、光学光电子以及文化传 媒等行业表现较好；航运港口、航天航空、煤炭以及房地产等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震 荡上行的运行特征。一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，经济复苏动能强劲，企业盈利增速拐点显现，现金流 改善为市场提供基本面支撑。人民币汇率企稳回升，外资流入预期增强，流动性环境整体宽松。预计短 期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，市场有望延续结构性行情，政策支持与流动性宽松为市场提供底部支撑。 仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 东莞证券认为，周二，大盘高开后红盘震荡，北证50、微盘股指数均创历史新高。海外市场方面，美联 储副主席杰斐逊表示，在制定货币政策时，将把穆迪下调美国信用评级视为普通的经济数据；纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯表示，在贸易动荡的背景下，对外国投资者撤离美国资产的担忧确实存在，但他认为，美 国"避风港"地位目前并未面临紧迫风险。国内市场方面，4月经济数据顶住压力稳定增长。往后看，外 部环境不确定性仍存在，但当前A股市场具备较高的战略定力和更强的韧性，大盘在此位置也有进一步 上行的动力。短期市场或维持震荡走势，长期看市场有 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3280 per ounce, with an increase of over 1.5% during the day amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade outlooks [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, with expectations for two rate cuts later in the year [3] - The decline in the U.S. credit rating has further weakened the credibility of the dollar, which has already been affected by fluctuating tariff policies from Washington [3] Group 2 - A bullish trend line has been established from the low of 3120 to recent lows, with current gold prices around 3280 showing resistance to further upward movement [5] - The trading strategy suggests waiting for a pullback to around 3263 to enter long positions, with key resistance levels at 3285 and 3300, and a final target of 3318 [5] - Short-term upward breaks do not confirm a trend reversal; a break above 3500 to 3440 is needed to establish a longer-term bullish trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - Despite Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating triggering market sell-offs, US stocks and bonds rebounded strongly, primarily driven by record buying from retail investors [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors net bought $4.1 billion by 12:30 PM ET, marking the largest net buying in history for that time period, exceeding 11 standard deviations [3]. - Retail trading volume accounted for approximately 36% of total trading volume, also a historical high, with total net buying reaching an astonishing $5.4 billion by market close [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Historical Context - Analysts noted that Moody's downgrade was seen as "academic," with the interest rate market already factoring in the unsustainable nature of the US fiscal deficit [3]. - Historical data suggests that after previous downgrades of US government debt, the stock market underperformed compared to bonds in the following months [6]. - In 2011, during the debt ceiling negotiations, the stock market began to decline and underperformed against bonds after the S&P downgrade [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Market Sentiment - There is a paradox where significant spending cuts, even if wasteful, could lead to an economic recession, as highlighted by JPMorgan's analysis [9]. - The market's resilience is likened to an acquired immunity, suggesting that past extreme conditions have altered investor perceptions of risk [9]. - JPMorgan's trading desk maintained a bullish outlook, indicating that any weakness in economic indicators should be viewed as a buying opportunity [10].