交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货22760，基差+40；中性。 3、库存：11月7日LME锌库存较上日增加800吨至34900吨，11月7日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1246吨至69268吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空减；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单保持低位；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2512：震荡 回落。 11月7日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结障 | 今开盘 | 覆高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结模参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4610 - 4666. The factors affecting the market include supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and inventory levels. [6][8][9] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. [6] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had varying trends in开工率, but overall, the current demand may remain sluggish. [6] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month. The double - ton spread was 2,249.75 yuan/ton, with no change in profit month - on - month. All were below the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis On November 5, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,630 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.6 Market MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.7 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.8 Expectation The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, production, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related downstream sectors. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures contracts, which helps to understand the market sentiment and price dynamics. [18][21][22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and production status of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., which are crucial for understanding the cost structure of calcium carbide - based PVC production. [27][30][32] 3.5.2 PVC Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, reflecting the supply - side situation of PVC. [40][41][43] 3.5.3 PVC Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the relationship with the real estate market and macro - economic indicators, which helps to understand the demand - side situation. [45][47][50] 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory levels of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory warehouses, ethylene - based factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises, which reflects the inventory status of the PVC market. [57][58] 3.5.5 Ethylene - Based - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, which are important for understanding the ethylene - based PVC market and international trade situation. [59][60] 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of the market. [63]

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1195元/吨，基差为-50元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.2万吨，较前一周减少0.01%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳回升。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices are seeking a bottom through oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. With increased production by construction steel mills, rebar output has been rising continuously, and the high inventory level has increased supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved seasonally and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the sustainability of the improvement is questionable. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, strong cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices are oscillating to find a bottom [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar has little change. Steel mill production has increased, leading to a continuous rise in output and high inventory, increasing supply pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but remains at a low level in recent years, and the sustainability is uncertain. In the context of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure. Cost support is strong, and rebar is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, with demand performance being a key factor [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.26%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量32.925万吨，环比增加4.10%,乙烯法企业产 量14.771万吨，环比减少1.76%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为50.54%，环比增加.68个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.83%，环比增加.96个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为42%，环比增加.799个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 3, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,950 yuan, up 360 yuan from October 31; the price of LME Nickel was 15,115 dollars, down 135 dollars; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,630 yuan, down 25 yuan [11] - For spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,000 yuan on November 3, up 50 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan [11] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, an increase of 648 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 31,206 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [14] - As of October 31, the total nickel inventory was 48,746 tons, an increase of 1,050 tons [14] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 3, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons compared to October 31 [18] - As of October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On November 3, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 58 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from October 31; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet ton was 923 yuan/nickel point, down 1.5 yuan [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,800 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,899 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,628 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 121,176 yuan/ton [26] Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The firm price of nickel ore provides support for the cost line [6] - Negative factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; both domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22400，基差-165；偏空。 3、库存：11月3日LME锌库存较上日减少1475吨至35300吨，11月3日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少125吨至67649吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%; the main basis was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.68% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia-alkali method was -92.40 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co-production method was -199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [21] 3.4 Demand for Soda Ash - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, and the operating rate was 76.35%, showing signs of stabilization [27] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [2] 3.5 Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34] 3.6 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided a supply-demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] - Rebar supply and demand are both rising. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, with limited improvement space. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] Market Driving Logic - Rebar supply and demand are both increasing. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited and the positive effect is not strong. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2]