1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] - **Main Risk Points**: Implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,577.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 147 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The net position of the main position is short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,827 - 4,887 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿正常生产，部分偶发事故煤矿有所停产。焦炭落实第一轮降价后下游焦企利润压 缩，对原料煤多按需采购，贸易环节观望居多，煤矿销售一般，考虑终端需求欠佳，市场看降情绪仍存， 部分煤种价格有继续回落预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差13；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游部分焦企产能利用率相对持稳，但多数焦钢企业补库接近尾声，市场需求渐弱，叠加近 期钢材价格偏弱，市场情绪趋于谨慎，焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: There are few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass declines, and terminal demand weakens. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1281 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 91 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - demand situation, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a historical high [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1278 | 1210 | - 68 | | Current Value | 1281 | 1190 | - 91 | | Change Rate | 0.23% | - 1.65% | 33.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. -开工率 and production: The weekly industry operating rate is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 75.17 tons, including 41.12 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio is 97.80% [25]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% and stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues to decline significantly [28][34]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the building asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 6.05% month - on - month, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3447 - 3489 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production volume in August decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, with a decrease in capacity utilization rate and output and an increase in maintenance volume. Supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit and the profit difference with delayed coking changed, and crude oil weakening may lead to weaker support [9]. - **Likely factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On September 4th, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 98 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month. Social and factory inventories are in a destocking state, while port inventory is in a stocking state, which is neutral [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20, which is negative [11]. - **Main position**: The main position is net long, but the long position decreased, which is positive [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China base differences [20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratios [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly shipment volume [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: The report shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output [56]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly开工率 [59]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trend of maintenance loss volume estimate [61]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) [64]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) [68]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio [71]. - **Import - export situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference from South Korea [74][77]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke output**: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output [80]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of apparent consumption [83]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) [95][98][99]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - The daily view on PVC is bearish. Positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][13][14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,667.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - **Basis**: On September 4th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 153 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. Ethylene factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. Social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,853 - 4,913 [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory levels, operating rates, and cost - profit data for different types of PVC products and related production methods [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes analyses of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures contracts [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry [27][30][32][35][37] - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of different downstream products of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][49][52][53][55][56] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [57] - **Ethylene Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences related to the ethylene method [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data for 2024 and 2025 [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery's recent production scheduling has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory levels remain unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 263,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 682,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily profit from asphalt processing was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly profit from delayed coking at Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The loss from asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Expected Outlook**: The refinery's recent production reduction has eased supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory remains unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. - **Lido Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [13]. - **Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is intensifying [14]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 3, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%. Factory inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing, factory inventory has been continuously decreasing, and port inventory has been continuously increasing. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Futures Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. The evaluation is bullish [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. The evaluation is bullish [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and decline, closing with a small positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with the short positions decreasing more. Overall, it was a shrinking - volume fluctuation. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed above the short - term moving averages, strengthening the moving average support. Short - term indicators like KDJ rose, and the trend indicator also rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Information - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons. The basis was - 15, considered neutral. On September 3, LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons to 55,225 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,992 tons to 40,947 tons, also considered neutral. The main positions were net long, but long positions decreased. The LME inventory warrants continued to decrease, and SHFE warrants remained at a high level [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market on September 3 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on the SHFE was 181,512 lots, with a trading value of 2.02425621 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 214,025 lots, a decrease of 3,014 lots compared to the previous day. Different delivery months had different price changes, such as the 2510 contract closing at 22,285 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous settlement [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market on September 3 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 16,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; zinc ingots in Shanghai were 22,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; galvanized sheets in China were 4,040 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; galvanized pipes in China were 4,459 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; zinc plates in Changsha were 27,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 21 - September 1, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets increased from 117,400 tons on August 21 to 133,300 tons on September 1. Compared with August 25 and August 28, the inventory increased by 8,500 tons and 3,500 tons respectively [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on September 3 - The total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 40,947 tons, an increase of 1,992 tons. The increase was mainly in Tianjin, where the warehouse receipts of Shanggang Yunhe Tianjin increased by 1,992 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory on September 3 - The LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The registered warrants were 42,450 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12,775 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 23.13% [7]. 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price on September 3 - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and others were priced between 16,760 - 16,960 yuan/ton, all up 80 yuan [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on September 3 - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from different manufacturers like Hunan Zhuzhou Zhuoying, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., were priced between 21,940 - 22,840 yuan/ton, all up 90 yuan [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the plan, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on September 3 - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 3 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2510 contract, Guotai Junan had the highest trading volume of 39,555 lots, up 3,019 lots. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures held 8,409 lots, up 403 lots. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures held 15,644 lots, down 850 lots [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.02%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.0135万吨，环比增加0.57%,乙烯法企业产 量12.516万吨，环比减少8.34%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.6%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为42.6%，环比增加.95个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比持平，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply has decreased significantly due to strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts. The total sample inventory has decreased by 28.1 tons compared to last week. Considering factors such as the decline in steel prices, the narrowing of steel mill profits, and the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is still restricted, and the supply is at a low level. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement rhythm of coke has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the supply will increase after the parade, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events have led to a significant reduction in supply. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of - 57.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons compared to last week [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position has decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The decline in steel prices and the narrowing of steel mill profits have led to a low acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises. With the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted, and the supply is at a low level. The procurement rhythm of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 3.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: After the parade, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weakness of steel prices [6]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The squeeze on the profit space of steel mills and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons compared to last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons compared to last week [27]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [32]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].