Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Chongqing has experienced significant price declines, with many properties now valued below their purchase prices, indicating a prolonged downturn in the housing market [1][2][5]. Market Trends - The average transaction prices for second-hand residential properties in Chongqing's top five districts have decreased by 13.5% to 24.4% compared to 2018 [2][11]. - The overall housing inventory in Chongqing is substantial, with a broad stock of approximately 42.7 million square meters, suggesting an estimated clearance period of about eight years [23][24]. Property Performance - Properties purchased by individuals like Xiao Yao have seen significant depreciation, with some homes losing up to 70% of their value since purchase [6][10]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a notable increase in listings, with over 280,000 properties available for sale, reflecting a 14.4% year-on-year increase [12][28]. Sales and Supply Dynamics - The supply of new residential properties has drastically decreased, with planned land supply for 2025 being only 35% of that in 2022, leading to a shift towards second-hand property transactions [28][29]. - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has risen significantly, surpassing new home sales for the first time, indicating a changing market preference [28][29]. Economic Context - Despite the downturn in the real estate market, Chongqing's GDP has shown resilience, ranking fourth in China, which contrasts with the declining property prices [26][29]. - The government has implemented measures to alleviate the burden on homebuyers, including the cancellation of two-year resale restrictions and incentives for upgrading homes [28][29].

Core Insights - The price of the Country Garden Yun Ding project in Guangzhou's Zengcheng district has significantly dropped from a peak of 41,000 yuan per square meter to a current low of 11,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a drastic price adjustment in the market [3][4][5] - The project, which was once a "land king" in 2017, is now priced below the original land acquisition cost, reflecting broader trends in the real estate market where prices in suburban areas are experiencing sharper declines [3][4][5] - The overall market is seeing a shift in developer strategies, moving from large-scale developments to more refined, location-focused projects, as evidenced by the changing dynamics in Zengcheng and other suburban areas [11][14] Price Trends - The current selling price of the Country Garden Yun Ding project is approximately 11,000 yuan per square meter, which is significantly lower than the average new home price in the area, and even below the price of second-hand homes [2][7][9] - The project has seen a drastic price reduction, with a three-bedroom unit priced at 1.194 million yuan, translating to about 11,600 yuan per square meter [5][9] Market Dynamics - The Zengcheng area is witnessing a broader trend of price adjustments, with other large-scale developments also experiencing significant price drops, indicating that the situation at Country Garden Yun Ding is not an isolated case [11][12] - The inventory turnover period in Guangzhou's core areas is reported to be 21 months, while non-core areas like Zengcheng have an even longer turnover period of 29.01 months, suggesting a sluggish market [14] Developer Strategies - Developers are increasingly cautious in their land acquisition strategies, focusing on high-quality plots and shifting from a broad, large-scale development approach to a more meticulous, location-driven strategy [14] - The historical context of land acquisition in Zengcheng highlights two key periods (2013 and 2016) when many developers entered the market, but the current market dynamics suggest a shift away from such aggressive land grabbing [14]

Macroeconomic Overview - The economic situation in China showed some marginal changes in late May 2025, with a temporary tariff agreement reached between China and the US on May 12, leading to some improvement in export conditions, although exports to the US continued to decline [1][2] - Domestic economic activity indicators remained stable in late May, with high furnace operating rates and grinding machine utilization rates holding steady, indicating a maintained high level of activity in the automotive sector [10][19] - Real estate sales remained weak, with noticeable price corrections in some second-hand housing markets, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities also saw a temporary decline in second-hand housing price indices [19][20] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI data for May indicated a mild recovery in economic sentiment, although price levels faced downward pressure. The PMI was slightly higher than in April, with improvements in import and export indices, but domestic demand remained weak [23][28] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continued to show signs of weakness, with property sales remaining low since the Spring Festival, particularly in second and third-tier cities. First-tier cities also experienced a phase of price correction in the second-hand housing market [19][20] Export and Trade - Despite a temporary improvement in export conditions due to the tariff agreement, the overall export situation remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff frictions and diminishing "export rush" effects posing challenges for future export trends [2][19]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].

导语 1 、 营业收入下降17%至34579亿，毛利润下降33% 2024年，房地产调控政策延续宽松基调，政策着力点更聚焦于去库存。尽管政策宽松，但市场信心和预期尚未根本 恢复，房地产市场仍在深度调整，2024年全国新建商品房销售额同比继续下降17%。在此背景下，企业整体结算规 模相应受到影响，住宅开发业务的利润空间仍在收窄。 2024年行业典型上市房企 1 整体实现营业收入34579亿元，同比下降17% ；营业成本30619亿元，同比下降15%。 营业收入在2023年短暂回升后，2024年再次出现加速下滑态势。 从毛利润来看，从2021年开始就保持下滑趋势，2024年典型上市房企实现毛利润3446亿元，同比下滑33%，下滑幅 度为历年较高。 2024年确认存货跌价损失1677亿，相比2023年大幅提升26%。 ◎ 文 / 房玲、易天宇 2024年，中国房地产调控政策延续宽松基调，政策着力点更聚焦于去库存。尽管政策宽松，但房地产市场整体依然 维持底部震荡。据统计局数据，2024年，全国新建商品房销售面积97385万平方米，比上年下降12.9%，新建商品 房销售额96750亿元，下降17.1%。 同时市场销售价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Real Estate Listed Companies Evaluation Research" report highlights a significant decline in the performance of listed real estate companies in China, with key metrics such as total assets, revenue, and profitability showing negative trends, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][19][40]. Evaluation Results - The evaluation covers eight major aspects with 20 secondary indicators and 44 tertiary indicators, making it one of the most important professional assessments of listed real estate companies in China [1]. - The report indicates that the average total asset scale of listed real estate companies in 2024 was 1334.04 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6.66% [19][27]. - The average revenue from real estate development for listed companies was 228.49 billion, down 11.42% year-on-year, reflecting a significant contraction in the market [19][27]. Financial Performance - The average net profit for listed real estate companies was -1.37 billion, marking a 114.35% year-on-year decline, with the net profit margin turning negative for the first time [19][23][27]. - The average net asset return rate decreased to 0.24%, down 1.18 percentage points from the previous year, indicating reduced profitability [19][23][27]. Market Trends - The report notes that the real estate market in 2024 continued to experience a downward trend, with new residential sales area and sales amount both showing negative growth, returning to levels seen in 2009 and 2015-2016, respectively [24][40]. - The average earnings per share for listed real estate companies saw a significant drop, reflecting a lack of confidence among buyers due to economic pressures [23][24]. Debt and Financing - The average net debt ratio for listed real estate companies rose to 83.99%, an increase of 7.24 percentage points from the previous year, indicating growing leverage and financial strain [19][27]. - The total financing amount for the top 30 listed real estate companies was 3934.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.02%, suggesting ongoing efforts to manage debt [27][29]. Operational Efficiency - The average inventory turnover rate for listed companies was 0.36, down from the previous year, reflecting challenges in sales and inventory management [36]. - Approximately 80% of listed real estate companies reported a decline in inventory, with an average decrease of 9.75%, indicating a contraction in operational scale [36][40]. Social Responsibility - The average tax amount paid by listed real estate companies was 9.32 billion, down approximately 23.92% year-on-year, reflecting the industry's overall revenue decline [37]. - All top 10 listed real estate companies published their social responsibility reports for 2024, indicating a commitment to ESG practices amid market challenges [37].

如今，国内房地产市场正处于长期调整的趋势之中。先是像郑州、天津、石家庄等二三线城市的房价跌。之后，像深圳、上海等一线城市也加入到调整的队 伍中。目前，全国平均房价跌幅已经超过了30%，而环京三四线城市房价跌幅超过50%。 此外，房子也越来越不好卖了，开发商只能选择大幅降价促销策略，而那些有"限价令"的城市，房企就只能是"买房送装修"、"买房送阳台"、"买房送车 位"等变相降价的措施。 实际上，本轮房地产市场的调整与过去有所不同，主要体现在三个方面：①像2008年、2011年、2014年的这几轮房地产市场调整，都是政策性调控楼市，意 在遏制房价过快上涨，而这次却是基本面驱动的；②以往房价调整只是在个别城市，而现在是全面范围内都在下跌；③以往调整期都不超过1年，而这轮房 地产调整已经快4年了。 而面对当前国内房地产市场形势，有业内人士提醒：6月开始，房产"贬值潮"或更严重，将会超出预料。让我们一起来分析一下： 第三，各种利好政策已经出尽 从2023年开始，国内各种政策利好消息不断，这让开发商抱有很大希望。比如，各地取消限购政策，上调公积金贷款额度，银行降低房贷利率和首付款，减 免契税和增值税。总之，能出台的利好政 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600159 证券简称：大龙地产 编号：2025-023 北京市大龙伟业房地产开发股份有限公司 关于2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会 召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 为便于广大投资者更加全面深入地了解公司2024年度和2025年第一季度业绩和经营情况，公司于2025年 5月10日披露了《关于召开2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会的公告》。2025年5月20日上午9:00- 10:00，公司参会人员通过网络互动的方式与投资者进行了沟通交流，就投资者普遍关注的问题进行了 回答。 一、业绩说明会召开情况 2025年5月20日（星期二）上午9:00-10:00，公司董事、总经理范学朋先生，董事、董事会秘书刘宗先 生，财务总监贾子婷女士，独立董事李金通先生、孙志强先生、张小军先生出席了本次业绩说明会。投 资者通过互联网登录上海证券交易所上证路演中心（https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/），在线参与本次业绩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the overnight night - session market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, and the situation of various financial markets. It also gives the schedule of significant events for the day. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Session Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，沥青、菜油、棕榈油涨近1%，对二甲苯（PX）、PTA跌超1%，瓶片、乙二醇、短纤、菜粕跌近1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.41%报3232.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司 [3] - International oil prices走强，美油主力合约收涨0.29%，报62.15美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨0.17%，报65.52美元/桶 [4] - London basic metals收盘涨跌不一，LME期锡涨0.98%报32960.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.81%报9516.00美元/吨 [5] - International agricultural product futures多数上涨，美大豆涨0.12%，美玉米涨0.79%，美豆油涨1.12%，美豆粕跌0.24%，美小麦涨0.86% [6] Important News Macro - economic News - In April 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier of cities were flat or slightly decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In first - tier cities, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [9] - The real estate market is moving towards stabilizing, but it is still in the adjustment and transformation process, and there is still pressure to release rigid and improved demand [9] - In April, affected by external shocks, macro - policies worked together, and the main economic indicators grew steadily and rapidly, but the foundation for the continuous recovery of the national economy needs to be further consolidated [9] - Fed's Bostic still worries about tariff - induced inflation but expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut this year [12] - Starting from May 20, many large state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks will cut the RMB deposit listing rates [12] - The US Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting this week [13] - Russia is ready to cooperate on the peace negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are intentions for face - to - face meetings between Russian and US leaders [13] - Iran's deputy foreign minister warns that nuclear negotiations will fail if the US insists on Iran stopping uranium enrichment [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs is cautious about oil price prospects, maintaining the forecast of Brent/US crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [16] - As of May 19, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China decreased by 2.65 tons, and the benzene - ethylene port sample inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.46 tons, a decrease of 8.11% [16] - On May 19, the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively [19] - The EU will propose to the G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [20] Metal Futures - On May 19, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased compared with May 12 and May 15, with different changes in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [22] - As of May 19, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased compared with May 12 and May 15 [23] - From May 12 - 18, the shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month [23] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of copper ore and copper concentrate decreased compared with May last year, while that of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate increased significantly [23] Black - series Futures - From May 12 - 18, the global iron ore shipment increased by 3.188 million tons month - on - month, with the shipment from Australia and Brazil increasing by 2.836 million tons [27] - From May 12 - 18, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 2.896 million tons month - on - month [27] - In April 2025, the coal export from Gladstone Port in Australia decreased by 19.38% month - on - month and 1.76% year - on - year [28] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [28] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of iron ore decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 2.59% [28] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the level of a 9.5% export tariff [30] - As of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, reached 98%, and the expected output in the 2024/25 season decreased by 27.4% compared with the previous season [32] - In April, China's palm oil import increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the import of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 18.4% year - on - year [32] - As of May 16, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills increased, and it is expected to continue to rise to 2.25 million tons this week [33] - As of May 15, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased compared with the previous week [34] - From May 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased [35] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of soybeans decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 11.34% [35] - As of May 17, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 98.9% [37] - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output is estimated at 169.7 million tons, with a slight downward adjustment of the export volume estimate [37] - As of May 18, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than expected, and the corn planting rate was 78%, lower than expected [37] Financial Markets Commodities - International precious metal futures rose due to the increase in global market risk - aversion sentiment after Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating [39] - International oil prices strengthened due to the enhanced expectation of global economic recovery and the gradual increase in demand [39] - London basic metals had a mixed performance, with the market trend being differentiated under multiple factors [39] - Zhongcai Futures' chairman has become China's largest copper bull, accumulating nearly $1 billion in bets [41] Bonds - In the domestic bond market, treasury bond futures rose, and most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [42] - The US Treasury will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations on May 20 [42] - In April, overseas institutional investors net - bought RMB 301.5 billion of domestic bonds, and as of the end of April, overseas institutions held RMB 4.44 trillion of inter - bank market bonds [42] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [42] - The main European bond markets stabilized, with the 10 - year UK Treasury yield rising slightly, and those of Germany, France, Italy, and Portugal remaining basically flat [43] Foreign Exchange - In April, the domestic foreign exchange supply and demand were basically balanced, and cross - border funds showed a net inflow, with foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continuing to improve [44] - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the central parity rate was raised [47] - Hedge funds and long - term investors are re - establishing positions betting on the appreciation of the yen [47] - The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [47] Upcoming Events - There are a series of important events on May 20, including central bank meetings, press conferences, and corporate events such as the listing of CATL's H - shares and the release of corporate financial reports [50]

Core Insights - The Ganzhou real estate market is experiencing a critical turning point, with new home prices declining while the second-hand home market shows signs of recovery [1] - New home prices in Ganzhou fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend observed since the beginning of the year [1] - In contrast, the second-hand home market saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, ending a three-month decline, driven by demand for school district properties [1] New Home Market - The decline in new home prices is attributed to reduced interest in high-priced improvement projects, with sales dominated by inventory clearance and promotional properties [1] - In April, new home registrations in the central urban area dropped by 3% to 885 units, with only the Nankang District showing strong performance with 406 units [1] - Prices for different unit types showed a decline, with units larger than 90 square meters experiencing a 0.2% decrease, indicating weak improvement demand [1] - Structural opportunities remain, particularly in the Zhangjiang New District, where new home prices remain stable above 10,000 yuan per square meter [1] Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home market in Ganzhou experienced a "V-shaped" recovery in April, with prices rising across all size categories [1] - The increase in demand for school district properties, particularly in the old city and Zhangjiang New District, has driven up transaction prices [1] - High-value properties like Binhai City Square have become attractive options for first-time buyers due to their lower total prices [1] Price Trends - The average transaction price in Zhangjiang New District is 12,787 yuan per square meter, despite a slight decrease of 0.47% month-on-month [5] - The old city area has an average price of 7,427 yuan per square meter, reflecting a minor decline of 0.09% [5]