2025年7月，百城二手房挂牌总量达258.56万套，同比增长11.58%，一线城市增长10.55%，深圳以36.7% 的同比增幅领跑。7月份，各个城市挂牌价普遍下跌，百城挂牌均价同比降8.5%。在挂牌量增长的同 时，销售量有所下降，特别是一线城市，在近期高品质新房交易受到市场欢迎的情况下，对二手住房交 易造成的较大影响，这是其价格跌幅扩大的重要原因。 李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 8月15日，国家统计局发布数据，2025年7月份，70个大中城市新房价格指数环比跌幅连续两个月保持 在-0.3%的水平上。其中，一线城市在土地出让高溢价（克而瑞数据显示，7月份一线城市为25.7%，创 今年新高）、高品质新房交易带动下，新房指数跌幅从上月的-0.3%收窄至-0.2%，二线城市跌幅从上月 的-0.2%扩大至-0.4%，三线城市保持在-0.3%的水平上。 二手住房方面，7月份70城二手住房价格指数环比下跌0.6%，跌幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点，但仍保持在 较高的回调水平上。其中，一线城市跌幅扩大，从上月的-0.7%扩大至-1.0%，连续4个月下跌。北京、 上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.1%、0.9%、1.0 ...

国家统计局昨日发布的最新数据显示，7月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市房价同比降幅整体有所收 窄。其中，一线城市新房价格同比环比降幅收窄；二、三线城市二手房价格环比降幅收窄，新房价格同 比降幅收窄。 业内人士认为，7—8月份是房地产市场的淡季，市场仍处于调整阶段。值得注意的是，一线城市新房市 场呈现止跌企稳迹象，二、三线城市二手房市场率先释放边际改善信号，未来楼市止跌回稳的趋势不 变。 数据显示，7月份，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，北京持平， 上海上涨0.3%，广州和深圳分别下降0.3%和0.6%。二线城市新房价格环比下降0.4%，降幅扩大0.2个百 分点。三线城市新房价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。 同比来看，7月份，一线城市新房价格下降1.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。其中，上海上涨6.1%， 北京、广州和深圳分别下降3.6%、4.6%和2.2%。二、三线城市新房价格同比分别下降2.8%和4.2%，降 幅分别收窄0.2个和0.4个百分点。 值得注意的是，7月份，新房价格同比上涨的城市有5个，比上月增加2个。其中，上海同比上涨6.1%， 杭州同比上涨2.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the decline in housing prices across major cities in July has narrowed, suggesting signs of stabilization in the real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities [1][2][4] Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In July, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase in the decline of 0.2 percentage points [1] - Third-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% in new home prices, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.1%, with a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Shanghai was the only first-tier city to see an increase, with a rise of 6.1%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 3.6%, 4.6%, and 2.2% respectively [2] - Second-tier cities' new home prices decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 4.2%, with both declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently in an adjustment phase, with first-tier cities showing signs of stabilization in new home prices, while second and third-tier cities are beginning to show marginal improvements in the second-hand housing market [1][3] - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is characterized by a high volume of listings, leading to downward pressure on prices as sellers adjust their expectations [3] - The overall trend indicates a potential for stabilization in housing prices, supported by policy adjustments aimed at restoring fundamental market conditions [4]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in investment and housing prices, necessitating continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore the market's focus on housing as a necessity and for public welfare [1][2][3] Investment Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1] - The new construction area of residential buildings fell by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Price Movements - In July, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with reductions also narrowing [3] Market Recovery Indicators - The trend of price declines in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with some cities experiencing price increases [3][4] - Financial support for real estate is improving, with bank approvals for loans significantly increasing, which may lead to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in real estate investment in the second half of the year [2] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that local governments should focus on stabilizing housing prices and adapt pricing strategies to better match market demand [5] - There is a call for continued exploration of policies to encourage housing demand and improve the overall market environment [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with a notable decline in housing prices across various cities, although some positive policy changes are expected to stabilize the market [2][17]. Sales Performance - From January to July, the total sales area of new commercial housing in China reached approximately 5.16 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, with residential sales area down by 4.1% [8]. - The sales revenue for new commercial housing was 49,566 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.5%, with residential sales revenue down by 6.2% [8]. Price Trends - In July, the new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [3][6]. - The average sales price of commercial housing nationwide from January to July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down by 2.4% year-on-year [9]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, particularly the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing, are seen as potential catalysts for market recovery, with expectations of increased market activity in the coming months [2][17]. - The introduction of favorable policies, such as adjustments to housing loan standards and increased public fund support, aims to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [16][17]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with a noted increase in the number of cities experiencing price declines, indicating a continued adjustment phase [2][7]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of resilience in first-tier cities, where demand remains relatively strong, and some new projects are seeing positive buyer engagement [6][14].

8月15日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，7月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市房价同比降幅整体有所收窄。其中，一线城市新房价格同环比降幅收窄；二、三线 城市二手房价格环比降幅收窄，新房价格同比降幅收窄。 另外，新房价格同比上涨城市比上月增加2个，上海涨幅位居第一。环比来看，上海、乌鲁木齐新房价格环比涨幅居前，太原二手房价环比上涨。 一线城市新房价格同环比降幅收窄 业内人士认为， 未来楼市止跌回稳的趋势不变。 业内人士认为，7—8月份是房地产市场的惯例淡季，市场仍处于调整阶段。值得注意的是，一线城市新房市场呈现止跌企稳迹象，二、三线城市二手房市场率先释 放边际改善信号，未来楼市止跌回稳的趋势不变。 对于7月份的房地产市场运行情况，中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为，7—8月份是房地产市场的惯例淡季，市场仍处于调整阶段，不同能级城市分化特征进一步凸 显。一线城市新房市场呈现止跌企稳迹象，二手房压力仍大；二、三线城市则在二手房市场率先释放边际改善信号，新房市场仍需政策加力。 国家统计局的数据显示，7月份，70个大中城市中，一线城市新房价格同环比降幅收窄；二、三线城市二手房价格环比降幅收窄，新房价格同比降幅收窄。 数据显示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is at a critical juncture, with uncertainty about how much prices will drop before stabilizing, which is a key goal for 2025 [1][3] Market Adjustment - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with predictions of a 10%-20% potential decline in national housing prices and an adjustment period lasting 1-3 years [3] - The adjustment may vary significantly by region, with first-tier cities remaining relatively stable while third and fourth-tier cities face higher risks of price declines [3] Factors Influencing Prices - Various factors, including declining birth rates and an aging population, contribute to a decrease in demand for housing, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - The current policies have reduced speculative buying, which previously supported high housing prices [3] Economic Implications - A significant drop in housing prices could disproportionately affect low- to middle-income families, for whom real estate constitutes 60%-70% of their wealth, while high-income families are less impacted [7][8] - The importance of stabilizing housing prices is emphasized due to its impact on multiple industries and employment [5][7] Policy Actions - Recent government actions have focused on promoting a stable and healthy real estate market, with a call for more targeted and effective policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand [8][9] - The necessity of synchronizing the recovery of the economy with the stabilization of the real estate market is highlighted, as both are interdependent [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak investment sentiment in the real estate sector, but new home sales data shows signs of bottoming out and recovery [7] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a bottoming phase, with new home sales showing a week-on-week increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 9% in 47 cities [4][50] - The land market has seen a decline in activity, with a total of 493,000 square meters of residential land sold in the week of May 17-23, representing a 6% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [44] - Special bonds for land acquisition have accelerated, with over 350 billion yuan allocated for the purchase of idle land across nearly 3,000 plots [5][14] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector declined by 1.5% this week, ranking 23rd among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector fell by 0.7%, ranking 11th [30] - The property service and management index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.8%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.4% [38] New Home Sales - In the week of May 17-23, new home sales totaled 404,000 square meters, with a 16% increase from the previous week and a 9% increase year-on-year [4][50] - Sales in first-tier cities saw a slight increase of 1% week-on-week but a decrease of 1% year-on-year [50] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home transactions totaled 284,000 square meters, with a 4% week-on-week increase and a 10% year-on-year increase [58] - First-tier cities experienced a 2% decrease week-on-week but a 25% increase year-on-year [58] Land Market Activity - The total area of residential land sold in 300 cities reached 131.98 million square meters year-to-date, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [44] - The average premium rate for land sales was 13% during the week [44] Investment Recommendations - Developers are advised to focus on first-tier and core second-tier cities, emphasizing improved products and maintaining land acquisition capabilities [7] - Real estate agencies with strong competitive advantages, such as Beike, are recommended due to increasing market activity [7]

Core Insights - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a "stop falling and stabilize" trend in the housing market, with both new and second-hand housing prices fluctuating within 1% in March 2025 [1] New Housing Market - Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 29 cities saw new housing prices either increase or remain stable compared to February, with Shanghai showing the highest month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - Other cities with notable increases include Hangzhou and Chengdu, both at 0.5%, while cities like Ningbo, Tianjin, Jinan, and Hefei also experienced slight price increases [1] - Year-on-year, only 2 cities reported an increase in new housing prices, with Shanghai at 5.7% and Taiyuan at 1%, while most cities maintained stable prices compared to the same period last year [1] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the second-hand housing market, 14 cities reported either an increase or stable prices month-on-month, with Hangzhou leading at 1%, followed by Beijing at 0.5% and Shanghai at 0.4% [1] - The trend of stabilizing prices is particularly evident in first and second-tier cities [1] Market Structure - There are notable differences in performance across different cities and between new and second-hand housing markets [1] - In Shanghai, new housing prices for properties larger than 144 square meters saw the highest increase, while for second-hand housing, the price increase was most significant for units sized between 90 to 144 square meters [1][2] - In Hangzhou, the most resilient new housing prices were in the 90 to 144 square meter range, while for second-hand housing, the best performance was seen in units smaller than 90 square meters [2] - Taiyuan's new housing prices increased the most for units 90 square meters and below, while the strongest second-hand price performance was in the 90 to 144 square meter category [2]