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国新国证期货早报-20250827
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 26, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3868.38, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13. The trading volume of the two markets was 2679 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down 16.63 [2]. - Futures: The weighted index of coke closed at 1679.6, down 40.8; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1155.5 yuan, down 37.7 [3][4]. 2. Core Views on Different Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The 7 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented this week, and the coking profit has improved. However, some coke enterprises may face short - term production restrictions due to the military parade, and there is a regional shortage of coke resources. The demand for coke is currently high but may decline during the military parade [5]. - Coking coal: More mines have resumed production this week, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high. Although the theoretical import profit of sea - borne coal is narrowing, the short - term supply is still abundant [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Asian high rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, which suppresses the price of US sugar. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined significantly on August 26 due to the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to the decline of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and heavy rainfall in Thailand, but falling in the afternoon due to the poor financial reports of German car companies and concerns about future rubber demand [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated on August 26, with good crop growth conditions. In the domestic market, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The price of soybean meal is in a state of shock, and the future trend depends on Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On August 26, the LH2511 contract closed down 0.36%. The supply of suitable pigs is sufficient, and the terminal consumption may improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual consumption recovery is restricted by many factors. The price of live pigs may fluctuate widely [9]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On August 26, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate in a high - level range. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased week - on - week [10]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement has increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to copper prices. The supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season [10]. 2.8 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14085 yuan/ton on the night of August 26, and the cotton inventory decreased by 127 lots [11]. 2.9 Logs - The futures price of logs was affected by the increase of foreign quotes. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to the price, import data, inventory changes and macro - expectations in the peak season [12]. 2.10 Steel - On August 26, the rb2510 contract closed at 3113 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3367 yuan/ton. The weak reality still restricts the rebound of steel prices, but there are still expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. 2.11 Alumina - The supply of alumina is increasing, while the growth of downstream electrolytic aluminum capacity is slowing down, resulting in a prominent supply - demand contradiction and downward pressure on prices [12]. 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and real - estate policies. The inventory has increased, and the future price depends on consumption performance [13].
关税大棒砸向欧洲!德国经济火车头熄火,万亿产业链紧急转向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 01:01
最新欧盟统计局数据显示,今年6月欧盟对美出口同比暴跌27%,贸易顺差从156亿欧元断崖式收窄至28亿欧元,创下历史性跌幅。这场由美国对欧盟商品加 征15%关税引发的风暴,正在将欧洲经济推入寒冬。 作为欧洲工业心脏的德国,经济引擎已发出刺耳的警报——二季度国内生产总值(GDP)环比下滑0.1%,若三季度继续萎缩,将正式陷入技术性衰退。 美国前政府今年初挥舞关税大棒,将欧盟输美商品税率从平均不足5%猛增至15%,部分领域如钢铝关税高达50%,这一涨幅相当于此前税率的7倍,直接推 高欧洲企业的出口成本。 欧盟虽以承诺7500亿美元能源采购和6000亿美元对美投资为代价换取协议,但高关税的杀伤力远超预期,荷兰国际集团研究主管布热斯基指出,关税生效前 企业曾"抢出口"透支订单,随后出口断崖式下跌,叠加欧元走强和全球需求疲软,形成三重打击。 更严峻的是,欧盟试图通过第三国转口贸易规避关税的路径已被堵死。现代原产地规则监管严密,美国海关对规避行为高度警觉,加之贸易伙伴国不愿卷入 美欧争端,转口贸易可行性几乎为零。 关税冲击:27%暴跌背后的"7倍成本" 德国衰退:汽车业沦陷与29万岗位危机 作为欧盟经济"火车头",德国首当 ...
有棵树: 2025年半年度报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-26 16:45
| 有棵树科技股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 有棵树科技股份有限公司 | | | | 【2025 年 8 月】 | | | | 有棵树科技股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 | | | | 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容 | | | | 的真实、准确、完整,不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并承担 | | | | 个别和连带的法律责任。 | | | | 公司负责人肖燕、主管会计工作负责人肖燕及会计机构负责人(会计主管 | | | | 人员)肖燕声明:保证本半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 | | | | 所有董事均已出席了审议本次半年报的董事会会议。 | | | | 本报告涉及的发展战略及未来前瞻性陈述,不构成公司对投资者的实质承 | | | | 诺。投资者及相关人士均应对此保持足够的风险认识,并且应当理解计划、 | | | | 预测与承诺之间的差异。 | | | | 公司在经营管理中需要投资者关注的重大风险已在本报告中"第三节管理 | | | | 层讨论与分析"之"十、公司面临的风险和应对措 ...
高达262%关税!中国木制橱柜出口美国面临“高墙”转口策略或成关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 06:47
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has ruled to continue anti-dumping and countervailing duties on wooden cabinets and vanities imported from China, indicating that lifting these measures would likely harm the U.S. domestic industry [1] Timeline of Events - March 27, 2019: The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chinese wooden cabinets and vanities [3] - February 24, 2020: The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a positive final ruling, implementing the "double remedy" measures [3] - March 3, 2025: The first sunset review investigation for the "double remedy" measures was initiated [3] - July 2, 2025: The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a rapid final ruling for the first countervailing sunset review [3] - July 3, 2025: The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a rapid final ruling for the first anti-dumping sunset review [3] - August 21, 2025: ITC confirmed the continuation of the "double remedy" measures [3] Tariff Rates - The anti-dumping tariff rates for Chinese wooden cabinets and vanities remain high: - Jiangsu Hongjia Wood Industry Co., Ltd.: 4.37% - Rizhao Fukai Wood Industry Co., Ltd.: 101.46% - Dalian Meisen Woodworking Co., Ltd.: 262.18% - Other companies with separate rates: 48.5% - Companies without separate rates: 262.18% [3] Industry Impact - The high tariff rates significantly weaken the competitiveness of Chinese wooden cabinets and vanities in the U.S. market, leading to potential loss of market share and even exit from the market for some companies [5] - There are concerns that without effective strategies, the global layout and supply chain stability of Chinese companies will face further challenges [5] Third-Country Transshipment Trade - In light of the ongoing high tariff barriers, the industry is shifting focus towards third-country transshipment trade routes, utilizing countries like Malaysia and Turkey to mitigate tariff pressures [6] - This approach may provide short-term relief for exporters while maintaining some export channels, although legal and policy risks remain [6] Future Strategies - Analysts suggest that Chinese companies may need to adopt several strategies: - Diversifying market presence by exploring emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to reduce reliance on the U.S. [6] - Exploring transshipment trade while ensuring compliance with customs and trade regulations [6] - Upgrading products and value chains through design, craftsmanship, and service differentiation to lessen dependence on price advantages [6][7] Long-term Outlook - The sustained enforcement of the "double remedy" measures reflects a long-term trend of protectionism in the U.S. home building materials sector [6] - The pressure on Chinese wooden cabinet and vanity exporters remains significant under the maximum tariff rate of 262.18%, necessitating a focus on enhancing competitiveness and optimizing industry layout for robust supply chain and market development [7]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:06
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, but the decline in online quotes has stabilized. Some airlines have shown a willingness to support prices in September. Considering the uncertainty of tariffs and the large actual damage to foreign trade, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. This year's freight rates may show the characteristic of an even weaker off - season. The main October contract has a deep discount, and the decline in spot freight rates has slowed down, so the short - term decline in futures may narrow. In the long run, the freight rates may still show a downward trend, and the October contract should be short - allocated on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and the decline in online quotes has stabilized. For example, the lowest online quote for a 40GP large container on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the fourth week of August was $2384 from Maersk, and other airlines also kept their quotes stable in the range of $2500 - $2900. CMA CGM, HPL, and ONE have announced higher freight rates for September, showing a willingness to support prices. The uncertainty of tariffs has a great impact on foreign trade, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season, and this year's freight rates may be weaker in the off - season. The main October contract has a deep discount, and the decline in spot freight rates has slowed down, so the short - term decline in futures may narrow. In the long run, the freight rates may still decline, and the October contract should be short - allocated on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - From August 18th to August 22nd, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Most route freight rates declined, and the comprehensive index continued to adjust. On August 22nd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period. In the European route, although the eurozone economy continued to recover, the impact of US tariff policies began to appear, and foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing industry declined for the second consecutive month. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on August 22nd was $1668/TEU, down 8.4% from the previous period. The Mediterranean route was similar to the European route, and the spot booking price continued to fall. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports on August 22nd was $2225/TEU, down 2.4% from the previous period. In the North American route, the US labor market cooled, and the freight demand growth was weak. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on August 22nd were $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU respectively, down 6.5% and 3.9% from the previous period. US President Trump announced a "major" tariff investigation on imported furniture, which will further impact the industry. In addition, the Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation also has potential impacts on the market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On August 25th, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1990.2 points, down 189.97 points (-8.7%) from August 18th. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1041.38 points, down 64.91 points (-5.9%) from August 18th [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 25th showed different performance for each contract. For example, the EC2510 contract had an opening price of 1323.0, a closing price of 1358.0, a settlement price of 1356.3, a rise of 34.0, and a rise rate of 2.57%. The trading volume was 39234, and the open interest was 54357 with an increase of 102 [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]
美国关税大棒砸出神反转!中印一夜达成10项协议,美印太战略现致命裂缝
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 22:45
峰回路转:中印联手,美国关税阴影下的"新平衡" 在美国对印度施加关税壁垒,意图施压的"前脚"刚刚落下,新德里便以一种意想不到的方式"回敬"了华盛顿。就在2025年8月,特朗普政府突然宣布对印度 商品加征25%的惩罚性关税,将此前对印度的整体关税推升至惊人的50%,此举无疑对印度的农业、汽车及医药等关键产业构成了直接冲击,预估年损失高 达70亿美元。然而,仅在关税生效后的短短48小时内,局势便发生了惊人的逆转。印度外交部突然宣布了莫迪总理即将访华的消息,而中国外交部长王毅也 紧急启程飞赴新德里,双方连夜签署了十项意义重大的合作协议,勾勒出一幅截然不同的地缘政治图景。 此次中印两国在边境管控方面的突破尤为引人注目。在中印边界问题特别代表第24次会晤中,双方首次在边境的东段和中段建立了将军级会谈机制。此前, 此类直接军事沟通渠道仅存在于西部边境,而今,三段边界均已打通,这标志着双方在军事互信方面迈出了关键一步。更具象征意义的是,在海拔4500米的 乃堆拉山口,中印双方同步撤除了去年刚刚部署的装甲车编队,这一举动向外界释放了缓和边境紧张局势的强烈信号。据印度军方消息人士透露,双方还就 边境部队"枪口不得朝天"的实操细 ...
前7月,印度与中国贸易逆差600亿美元,对美国贸易顺差250亿美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 14:23
Core Insights - India's foreign trade performance for the first seven months of the year shows both positive and negative aspects, with total import and export value reaching $683.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][3] Trade Performance - Exports decreased by 0.3%, while imports increased by 3.9%, leading to a trade deficit of $154.6 billion, which is an 11.8% year-on-year increase [3] - The United States has become India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade amounting to $88.124 billion, a 20.3% increase year-on-year. Exports to the U.S. reached $60.019 billion, up 24.2%, while imports were $28.105 billion, a 12.7% increase [4][6] - India has a trade surplus of $25 billion with the U.S., a significant increase of 38.7% year-on-year [4][6] - Trade with China amounted to $79.126 billion, a 12.6% increase year-on-year, with exports to China at $9.584 billion (up 0.7%) and imports at $69.541 billion (up 14.5%), resulting in a trade deficit of $60 billion, which is a 17% increase [4][6] Economic Implications - The contrasting trade figures with the U.S. and China highlight India's unique position in the global trade network, showcasing both its economic strengths and vulnerabilities [4][7] - India's manufacturing sector shows a deep reliance on Chinese products across various industries, indicating a significant dependency on China's supply chain [6] - The trade surplus with the U.S. supports India's economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, while the deficit with China exposes challenges in domestic manufacturing capabilities [7][9] Future Considerations - The dual trade dynamics present a long-term challenge for India in balancing bilateral relationships and enhancing domestic innovation [9] - The open trade system provides India with essential development opportunities, allowing it to leverage its comparative advantages in manufacturing and services [9][12] - The Modi government faces the challenge of balancing multilateral trade systems with domestic industry upgrades, advocating for participation in international rule-making rather than resorting to protectionism [10][12]
美欧关税战升级,欧洲经济如何应对挑战?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 09:53
Group 1 - The recent joint statement between the US and EU indicates an agreement on trade framework, but high tariffs continue to cast a shadow over the European economy [1][3] - The US will impose tariffs of up to 15% on most EU goods, affecting key export products such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [3][4] - In June, Eurozone exports fell significantly, with exports to the US dropping over 10% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of US tariff measures [3][4] Group 2 - The Eurozone's trade surplus has sharply decreased, with exports declining by 2.4% month-on-month in June while imports increased by over 3%, leading to a drop in trade surplus from €15.6 billion in May to €2.8 billion [3][4] - The automotive industry is under significant pressure due to high tariffs, with German and French car manufacturers heavily reliant on the US market [4][5] - The metal industry is also struggling, facing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products, resulting in reduced orders from major exporting countries like Germany and Italy [4][5] Group 3 - European companies are actively seeking strategies to cope with high tariffs, including price increases to pass costs onto consumers and expanding local production to mitigate tariff risks [4][5] - Some small and medium exporters are shifting their market focus to Southeast Asia and the Middle East to reduce dependence on the US, although this transition poses challenges [5] - The Eurozone's industrial output fell by 1.3% month-on-month in June, indicating pressure on the manufacturing sector, which could impact investment and employment in export-dependent countries like Germany and the Netherlands [5]
中国越买越少,美国盟友先扛不住了,主动上门劝中方回心转意
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 03:53
Group 1 - Canada and the US are facing unprecedented economic pressure due to strained relations with China, particularly affecting Canada's canola industry, which is vital for its agriculture and has an annual value of CAD 43 billion [1][2] - The implementation of electric vehicle tariffs by Canada, following the US, has led to China imposing anti-dumping duties on Canadian agricultural products, significantly impacting the market [1][2] - The loss of the Chinese market poses a serious threat to Canada's agricultural competitiveness, especially if Australia begins to capture more market share in canola [2] Group 2 - The US agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, is also suffering from the trade war, with significant inventory buildup due to a lack of orders from China [4] - The trade relationship between the US and China is increasingly tense, leading traditional allies like Canada and the EU to reassess their economic ties with China [6] - China's response to the trade tensions emphasizes adherence to international rules and the consequences of unilateral actions, highlighting the need for fair and cooperative trade practices [6][7] Group 3 - The ongoing trade conflict illustrates the detrimental effects of political maneuvering and tariff wars, resulting in a lose-lose situation for farmers in Canada and the US while China maintains its market interests [8]
关税摩擦对中国钢材出口影响分析
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Market Analysis - Multiple countries and regions have increased tariff frictions and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, leading to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [4]. - China's steel industry holds an important position globally, with its crude steel output accounting for about 55% of the world's total in 2024, and has long accounted for over 50% [4]. - China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the billet export volume increased significantly [4]. - The export of high - value - added products in China has increased significantly. From January to July 2025, the export volume of thick plates and large - section steel increased by 10.7% and 38.9% respectively year - on - year [4]. - The structure of China's steel exports has changed. The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased [5]. - China's steel exports to North America and some countries that have imposed additional tariffs have continued to shrink, while exports to emerging economies have maintained growth [5][6]. Strategy - Pay attention to changes in steel export regions and objectively evaluate the resilience of China's steel exports and consumption [7]. Summary by Directory Preface - China's steel exports show strong resilience and adaptability. Facing challenges from anti - dumping investigations in traditional markets, China has accelerated the exploration of emerging markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative has provided strategic support [14]. Part One: Anti - Dumping Investigation on Chinese Steel Exports by Some Countries and Regions - Since 2025, economies such as India, the EU, the US, and Vietnam have launched anti - dumping investigations or made anti - dumping rulings on various high - value - added steel products from China, which may lead to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [15]. Part Two: China's Crude Steel Output Holds an Important Position Globally - China's crude steel output reached a record high in 2020 and decreased in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it was 1.005 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. China's crude steel output accounts for over 50% of the world's total [18][19]. Part Three: China's Steel Export Volume Continues to Show a Growth Trend - Despite the challenges of global trade protectionism and anti - dumping measures, China's steel export volume has continued to grow. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.4%. The export of high - value - added products has also increased significantly [26][37]. Part Four: Changes in China's Crude Steel Export Structure - The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased significantly, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased, indicating a shift from pursuing quantity growth to structural optimization [41]. Part Five: China's Steel Exports Are Shifting to Emerging Markets - China's steel export destination is shifting from traditional developed markets to emerging markets. Exports to North America have decreased, while exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America have increased [49]. Part Six: Conclusion - Multiple countries and regions have imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, and the global steel trade pattern is facing a new round of adjustment. China's steel industry holds an important position globally, and its steel exports continue to grow. The export structure is changing, with a shift towards emerging markets [83][84].