Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Trump's plan to arrange a shadow chairman before Powell's term ends to promote rapid interest rate cuts, along with the negative final Q1 GDP growth and decreased May personal consumption in the US, increased the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Rising interest rate cut expectations and the weak US dollar boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, the global copper concentrate supply shortage was more severe than expected, LME visible inventories declined continuously, the LME0 - 3 BACK structure was crowded, and domestic social inventories were low. The tightened global refined copper balance provided a solid bottom and upward support for copper prices in the medium term [2]. - Overall, the intensified stagflation risk in the US, the weakening US dollar, and the slightly rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year provided a good basis for copper prices to rise in the short term. The calming of the Middle - East situation increased the capital market's risk appetite for bulk assets. The US's desire to revitalize the manufacturing industry elevated copper to a strategic asset. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage persisted, the long - term TC benchmark price for the second half of the year between Antofagasta and some Chinese smelters dropped to $0, global visible inventories were at a low level and declining, there was a certain risk of a short squeeze in LME0 - 3, and the global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an upward - fluctuating channel and gradually open up upward space in the short term [3][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From June 20th to June 27th, LME copper rose from $9,660.50/ton to $9,879.00/ton, a 2.26% increase; COMEX copper rose from 483.4 cents/pound to 512.5 cents/pound, a 6.02% increase; SHFE copper rose from 77,990 yuan/ton to 79,920 yuan/ton, a 2.47% increase; international copper rose from 69,170 yuan/ton to 71,250 yuan/ton, a 3.01% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly from 8.07 to 8.09, the LME spot premium dropped from $274.99/ton to $240.67/ton, a 12.48% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 120 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 27th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 445,288 tons, a 3.49% decrease from June 20th. LME inventory decreased by 7,925 tons to 91,275 tons, a 7.99% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 8,084 short tons to 209,281 short tons, a 4.02% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,532 tons, a 19.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 63,200 tons, a 4.98% increase [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The weakening US dollar and the tightened global refined copper balance supported copper prices. As of June 27th, the total global inventory decreased, and the decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the weakening US dollar [8]. - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the consideration of replacing him increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and boosting the metal market. The US economy showed signs of stagflation or shallow recession, and the Fed might resume interest rate cuts in the future. The cease - fire in the Middle - East was a positive sign for the capital market [9]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: The global copper concentrate supply shortage persisted. Some small and medium - sized smelters in China reduced production slightly, and new production capacity might be postponed. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, which could offset the decline in demand from traditional industries. The global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year [10] 3. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In April, Peru's copper production reached 220,200 tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the cumulative production was 886,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Las Bambas copper mine became the third - largest copper mine in Peru [12]. - **Western Mining's Project**: Western Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, received approval for its third - phase project. After completion, the ore - processing scale will increase to 30 million tons/year, and the annual copper metal output is expected to reach 180,000 - 200,000 tons [13]. - **Antofagasta's Expansion**: Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine has produced over 8.5 million tons of copper. After the first - phase expansion, two new projects are in progress. The company's copper production guidance for 2025 is 660,000 - 700,000 tons [14]. - **Copper Rod Market**: The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly. The copper rod market in East and South China was weak, and the start - up rate of copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in early July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and the trends of copper premiums, spreads, and import profits and losses [19][22][26]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices increased by 0.6%, reaching $9,754 per ton [1] Group 1 - The rise in copper prices indicates a positive trend in the metal market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper futures prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions from halted mining operations and a significant drop in copper inventories to a one-year low [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Mining operations have been paused, leading to concerns over copper supply shortages [1] - Copper inventories have decreased to a one-year low, indicating tightening supply conditions in the market [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The potential for further increases in copper prices is being questioned, given the current supply constraints and inventory levels [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have reached a two-week high, driven by a significant decline in inventory levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] - Ongoing trade tensions remain a potential risk factor for the copper market, which could impact future price movements [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in copper inventory has contributed to the upward pressure on copper prices [1] - The current price trend indicates a potential bullish sentiment in the copper market, contingent on inventory levels and external economic factors [1] - Trade tensions are highlighted as a looming concern that could affect market stability and investor confidence in copper prices [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices are expected to challenge the $9,950 mark as LME copper inventories hit an 11-month low, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis may act as an invisible driver for copper prices, influencing market dynamics [1] Group 1 - LME copper inventories have reached their lowest level in 11 months, suggesting tightening supply conditions [1] - The anticipated rise in copper prices to $9,950 reflects market speculation and potential demand increases [1] - The U.S. debt crisis is highlighted as a possible factor affecting copper market trends, potentially leading to increased volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The energy trader, Mercuria, anticipates record copper prices to emerge soon, rather than later [1] Group 1 - Mercuria's forecast indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices, suggesting a significant upward trend in the near future [1] - The company emphasizes that the anticipated price surge is not a distant expectation but rather imminent [1]

伦铜日内涨幅达2.00%，现报9543.50美元/吨。 ...

LME伦铜向上触及9500美元/吨，最新报9500.95美元/吨，日内上涨1.45%。 ...

中国缺铜吗？中国铜储量为3000万吨，全球铜储量为8.3亿吨，我国每年都要大量进口铜矿石，优质的铜精矿数量依然不足，中国因为在电力、电子产品生 产领域，在建筑、机械和很多制造业方面，对一些元器件的制造，都需要用到铜材料，比如电线电缆的铜芯，对铜的需求稳定提升，因此成为世界铜消耗量 大的国家，2024年中国进口铜的总量达到了3604万吨，也是进口铜量可观的国家。 铜被称为红色黄金，是因为它具有特殊的紫红色的金属光泽，全球铜矿资源的供需市场将会出现进一步的变化，很多采购国家也将会争夺铜矿合作资源，变 成明里暗里的对同资源的竞争。 为何说对于红色黄金的争夺战将要打响？我国作为铜资源进口大国，其他国家也要进口铜，比如日韩，德国，印度，也是消耗铜的进口国，而且日韩国家铜 资源匮乏，对进口铜依赖度高，自身甚至没有资源。德国作为欧洲工业强国，进口铜制造电子领域的产品，消耗总量不断增加，在全球市场中占据较为重要 的位置，一旦铜出口国的产能降低，其他国家没有新增铜矿，必然会有竞争出现。不排除有的国家为了获得进口订单，抬高价格或者能接受较高的价格。 我国铜精矿进口第一大国，就是智利，2024年进口将近千万吨的规模，进口总额高达1 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 行业研究 2025 年 7 月国内空调排产同比增长 14%，线缆企业开工率续创年内新高 ——铜行业周报（20250421-20250425） 要点 本周小结： 7 月国内空调排产同比+14%、线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，看好 宏观预期改善后的铜价上行。截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 77440 元 /吨，环比上周五+1.7%；LME 铜收盘价 9360 美元/吨，环比上周四+1.9%。当 前铜行业处于宏观压制与供需紧张的背离中。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对铜价的情 绪影响已基本反映，但涨幅或仍受制于关税对经济负面预期的压制。（2）供需： 国内线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，7 月空调排产延续高增长，国内延续去库。 铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-22%，LME 铜库存环比-6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 80.2 万吨，环比上周+13.5%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 50.7 万吨（近 6 年同期最 ...