所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-11 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-11 所长 早读 美商务部长称中美谈判"进展顺利" 观点分享： 据环球时报，媒体称卢特尼克 10 日表示，谈判"进展顺利"。"昨天我们整天都在谈， 今天估计也是一整天。"卢特尼克对记者称，"谈得很顺利，我们花了很多时间一起交流。" 本次美方代表团主要成员包括美国财政部长贝森特、美国贸易代表格里尔和美国商务部长卢 特尼克。其中贝森特和格里尔参与了日内瓦会谈，卢特尼克是新加入的谈判代表。据央视旗 下媒体玉渊谭天的评论，"卢特尼克的加入也意味着，中方有权继续就美方实施的出口管制 这一问题提意见、要解释、要回应。" 今 日 发 现 期货研究 | | | 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢 | ★★★★ | 不锈钢：短期低位震荡运行，中期压力的缓和需关注减产动向。短线基本面仍显偏弱，前期 高排产叠加淡季消化压力，钢价上方弹性受限，关税缓和后的压力释放并未很明显。6 月负 反馈向供应端传导，上游或开启被动式减产，不锈钢 6 月排产 323.9 万吨， ...

稀土：出口管制催化，供需或加速错配 20250610 摘要 中国对锗、镓、铟、镝、铽、镨和钕等小金属实施出口管制后，由于中 国供应占比高，这些金属价格普遍上涨，半年内涨幅至少 50%，反映了 出口管制对市场供需的直接影响。 稀土资源涨价的核心逻辑在于出口管制导致进口原料价格与国内定价倒 挂，推动内盘价格跟随外盘上涨。中国汽车产量占比高，海外市场反应 迅速，进口替代抬升成本，最终实现补涨。 中国在全球稀土产业链中占据主导地位，尤其在冶炼分离和合金粉末环 节，份额超过 90%。出口管制直接影响海外供需，导致欧洲氧化镓和氧 化铽价格迅速翻倍，国际市场补库需求持续。 稀土元素在现代工业中具有不可替代的作用，尤其是在国防军工和新能 源汽车领域。中国磁材产量占全球近 90%，凸显了中国在稀土供应链中 的重要地位。 出口管制刺激海外终端厂商补货需求，在低价和低库存背景下，海外厂 商加速补库。2024 年中国氧化锑出口量减少，瓷材出口量小幅增加， 表明海外需求增长主要来自实际需求增加。 Q&A 中国在 4 月份实行中重稀土的出口管制后，海外市场的价格变化情况如何？ 自中国在 2025 年 4 月实行中重稀土出口管制以来，海外 ...

Core Points - China has recently implemented export controls on certain rare earth items with dual-use military and civilian attributes, affecting foreign automotive companies and raising concerns about the impact on the defense industry [1][5] - The export restrictions are seen as a response to the U.S. government's unilateral tariff measures and technology blockades against China, leading to increased tensions between the two countries [1][5] - Analysts indicate that Western defense giants are also feeling pressure from these export controls, with stock prices of European defense companies declining [1][5] Group 1: Impact on Industries - The automotive and robotics sectors have experienced significant impacts due to the rare earth export controls, with specific mention of the importance of samarium in the manufacturing of F-35 fighter jets [2][4] - The defense industry is facing a potential shortage of rare earth elements, which are critical for various defense technologies, including sonar systems and radar [4][5] - Concerns have been raised that if the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide remains below $60 per kilogram by 2030, nearly half of the non-Chinese rare earth supply could become economically unviable [5] Group 2: Responses and Future Outlook - China has stated that it will continue to review export applications for rare earth items in accordance with international practices, emphasizing the need to maintain national security and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations [6][7] - The Chinese government is open to establishing a green channel for compliant applications to expedite approvals, reflecting a willingness to accommodate reasonable demands from other countries [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to a series of countermeasures from China against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, indicating a broader strategy of using export controls as a tool in international relations [7]

► 文 观察者网 王一 面对中国的稀土管控，一向非常有民族自信的印度低下了头。印度《经济时报》6月10日报道称，印度 商务和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔透露，在接到国内公司关于稀土储备即将耗尽的反馈后，他们正在与中 国进行谈判，以确保稀土供应。 "存在担忧，"戈亚尔称，"我们的大使馆正在与他们（中国）对话……商务和工业部也在努力。" 戈亚尔承认，中国停止向印度出口稀土永磁体显然会有影响，"尤其是我们的汽车行业"和一些其他行 业。他称，一些公司已提交了稀土出口许可申请，"我们希望理智会占据上风，他们能获得稀土的出口 许可"。 这位时常发表涉华消极言论的印度官员也没有忘记借此朝中国"泼脏水"。脑回路清奇的他对美国挑起全 球贸易战、滥用出口管制的行径选择性地视而不见，反而暗戳戳地指责中国，拿中国的对美反制措施说 事，污蔑中国不值得信赖。 戈亚尔渲染称，这件事情"对所有过度依赖特定地区的人来说是一个警钟"，"提醒大家在供应链中需要 值得信赖的合作伙伴"。 稀土储量世界排 名前七的国家的储量（左）和产量（右）图 印度商务和工业 部长皮尤什·戈亚尔 视频截图 他的说法完全站不住脚。《经济时报》在4日的报道中就指出，已有9家印度 ...

Group 1 - China has approved a certain quantity of rare earth product export applications, indicating a shift in policy after previously imposing export restrictions [1][3] - The export restrictions on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements have significant implications for various industries, including automotive, semiconductors, and military hardware [1][3] - The slow progress in issuing export licenses has led to a sharp decline in global rare earth supply, affecting multiple sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government emphasizes that the export control of rare earths is a common international practice aimed at safeguarding national security and interests [3][4] - The recent approval of some export applications is seen as a strategic move to balance pressure from the U.S. while maintaining China's dominant position in the rare earth market [3][4] - The U.S. military could face significant production challenges if China were to completely cut off rare earth exports, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials [3][4] Group 3 - Trump's recent welcoming of Chinese students to the U.S. marks a significant shift from previous policies that were more restrictive, reflecting a potential change in U.S.-China relations [6][7] - The U.S. economy may benefit from the presence of Chinese students, who contribute to consumption and talent in various fields, despite concerns over technology transfer [6][7] - The fluctuating U.S. policy on Chinese students indicates a complex interplay between competition and cooperation in the context of U.S.-China economic relations [6][7] Group 4 - The long-term outlook suggests that both countries will continue to experience a mix of cooperation and competition across economic, technological, and educational domains [9] - China is encouraged to enhance resource management and improve domestic education quality to attract talent, while also maintaining a strategic stance in trade negotiations [9] - The evolving U.S.-China relationship will have significant implications for the global political and economic landscape, necessitating ongoing dialogue and cooperation [9]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. has escalated actions against China, including imposing high tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods, aiming to disrupt China's economic development [3] - In the technology sector, the U.S. continues to implement chip export controls and collaborates with allies to restrict high-end chip technology exports to China, attempting to hinder China's semiconductor industry [3] - The U.S. has also revoked numerous student visas for Chinese students, significantly disrupting educational exchanges between the two countries [3] Group 2: China's Countermeasures - In response to U.S. actions, China has imposed corresponding tariffs on U.S. imports, targeting key U.S. export sectors such as agriculture and energy [3] - China has placed several U.S. entities on an unreliable entity list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China and from making new investments in China [3] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry Dynamics - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry, possessing a significant share of global reserves and advanced extraction and processing technologies [6] - The U.S. faces challenges in its rare earth sector, with high extraction costs and a lack of skilled engineers, making it heavily reliant on Chinese imports for rare earth materials [6] - China's export controls on rare earths have severely impacted U.S. high-tech manufacturing and military modernization efforts, causing production slowdowns and shortages of critical components [6] Group 4: Diplomatic Engagement - The U.S. attempts to discredit China in the international arena, attributing its difficulties to China's countermeasures, while China defends its actions as legitimate and seeks international support [8] - China advocates for dialogue and cooperation to resolve differences, emphasizing the need for equality, respect, and mutual benefit in negotiations [8] - Despite challenges, there remains an openness to dialogue and cooperation between the U.S. and China, which is essential for the stability and prosperity of the global economy [8]

A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.44%，收报3384.82点；深证成指跌0.86%，收报10162.18点；创业板指跌1.17%，收报2037.27点。 板块方面，港口航运股集体大涨；创新药概念股维持强势；美容护理、稀土永磁等板块涨幅居前，华为昇腾、军工、半导体、软件开发等板块跌幅 居前。 沪深两市全天成交额1.42万亿，较上个交易日放量1290亿。 01 中科曙光复牌一字涨停 6月10日，此前因筹划战略重组而停牌的海光信息和中科曙光复牌，中科曙光实现开盘涨停。海光信息也收涨4.4%。 截至收盘，中科曙光涨停板上 仍有50万手封盘排队等买进。 | 中科曙光 | | | ... () | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603019 已收盘 06-10 15:00:00 北京 | | | | | 68.09 +6.19 +10.00% | | | 36.32万人加自选 = 2 > CN 融 通 L1 | | 高 68.09 | 开 68.09 | 量 67196.00手 | 总市值 996.30亿 。 | | 低 68.09 额 4.58亿 | 换 0.46% | | 市盈 ...

Group 1 - The operating rate of PDH units is expected to remain below 70% due to poor profitability, despite new units starting up in June and July [1] - The demand for alkylation and MTBE units is increasing, driven by gasoline demand, while there is a slight increase in demand for C4 [1] - The international LPG price is declining, with US propane inventories continuing to rise and overall market resources being abundant [1] Group 2 - The domestic LPG supply is rebounding, with inventory levels remaining high and port storage capacity slightly decreasing after reaching a seasonal high [2] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment due to tariff issues, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and chemical demand being weak [2] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization has slightly rebounded but remains at a multi-year low, while alkylation capacity utilization has also increased, with margins near zero [2] Group 3 - Domestic refinery prices are weak, with terminal gas sales declining and increased refinery output leading to a loose supply of domestic gas [3] - Chemical demand is recovering month-on-month, but PDH margins have slightly decreased due to falling naphtha prices, limiting future growth potential [3] - Overall market pressure is evident with rising inventories at both terminals and refineries, despite some support from strong crude oil prices [3]

针对中重稀土的出口管制措施，中国近期发布了哪些重要声明？其中，中方特别强调了哪两个关键字？美国是否能够 如愿以偿地获得中方的稀土资源？ 在特朗普政府推出"对等关税政策"后，中国随即采取了一系列反制措施，其中之一就是加强了对中重型稀土的出口管 制。这一决策不仅反映出国家的战略考量，也彰显了中国在稀土领域的重要地位。 实际上，中国的稀土矿产量占全球总产量的60%以上，而精加工后的稀土产量更是高达90%以上，这使得中国在全球 稀土市场中占据绝对的优势。因此，世界各国对中国的稀土管制措施高度关注，纷纷探讨这些措施将持续多长时间。 人们普遍关心的是，未来中国是否可能彻底禁止稀土出口？ 在发言中，中方特别反复提到"民用"这两个词，向各国说明，只要进口的稀土能被用于民用领域，中国将不会对此施 加过多的限制。这一政策旨在确保正确使用中国的稀土资源，但出于对国防安全的考虑，中方也已经采取了一系列预 防措施，以避免进口的稀土被用于军工领域。例如，目前中国正在逐步完善出口许可制度，并近期推出了稀土追踪系 统，这标志着对稀土最终去向的管理变得更加严密。 这一措施的提出，主要是因为之前曾出现外企利用购买自中国的稀土产品转售给第三方的情 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-10 中美经贸磋商开启，关注国新办新闻发布会 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月CPI同比降0.1%，环比由涨转降，其中主要拖累项为能源 和食品；PPI同比降幅扩大至3.3%，主要原因有两方面：一是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价格下降；二是国 内部分能源和原材料价格阶段性下行。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%， 进口下降3.4%。从集装箱的船运数据来看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色 一般的背景下，前期透支的需求会重新回到偏弱的去库周期中。中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着 力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》，其中提到，合理提高最低工资标准、全面取消在就业地参加社会保险的户籍限制等 政策。国新办6月10日上午10时将就进一步保障和改善民生有关政策情况举行新闻发布会。面 ...