Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The metal industry is experiencing significant changes due to export controls and price fluctuations, particularly in rare earth elements and industrial metals [1][7]. - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented export controls on certain rare earth-related items and technologies containing Chinese components, impacting supply chains [1][7]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large-scale mine production cuts, with the current market influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing supply disruptions [2]. - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could lead to shortages if demand increases or supply is disrupted [2]. Group 3: Tin and Precious Metals - Global visible tin inventories have significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [3]. - Gold prices are reaching new highs, driven by economic signals from the Federal Reserve and increasing global central bank purchases of gold, with expectations for continued price elevation through 2025 [4][5]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The introduction of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a long-term bullish trend for cobalt prices due to anticipated supply shortages [6]. - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by stable domestic supply and increasing demand from the global energy storage market [6]. Group 5: Minor Metals - The strategic importance of tungsten is rising, with prices expected to increase due to supply constraints and heightened demand [7]. - The uranium market is projected to grow significantly, with demand expected to reach 91,000 tons by 2035, driven by increased nuclear power generation [8]. Group 6: Recommended Stocks - Companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth Group, among others, reflecting strong positions in the metal industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights a positive outlook for the growth of new orders for power and energy storage cell equipment manufacturers, driven by the recovery in demand for power batteries and energy storage cells starting from Q2 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From 2022 to Q2 2024, the expansion of battery manufacturers has significantly slowed due to supply and demand issues in the power battery sector, leading to pressure on new orders for equipment manufacturers [1][3]. - Since Q2 2024, there has been a rapid increase in sales of new energy vehicles, resulting in a rebound in power battery installation volume and an expansion in demand for energy storage cells [1][3]. - Major battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD have seen their capacity utilization rates approach full capacity, prompting a restart of capital expenditures since Q4 2024 [1][3]. Group 2: Export Regulations - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that certain lithium battery materials and core manufacturing equipment will be subject to export controls, effective from October 9 [2]. - The new export control does not equate to a ban; companies can still engage in export activities through a licensing application process, benefiting compliant enterprises with global operational experience [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Chinese lithium battery equipment manufacturers are positioned competitively on a global scale, with key players in overseas expansion including Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers, as well as new entrants from Europe and the U.S. [2]. - The report expresses optimism about the overseas expansion of Chinese battery manufacturers and automotive companies, highlighting that domestic equipment manufacturers like Xian Dai and Hanke possess global competitiveness [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on full-line equipment suppliers such as Xian Dai Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like Lianying Laser, and formation and capacity equipment suppliers like Hanke Technology [3]. - Other companies to watch include fiberization equipment manufacturers, roller press suppliers, and various electrode equipment manufacturers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has experienced a significant rebound after a collective pullback in September, with a notable increase in stock prices driven by improving demand and strategic value in rare earth products [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 13, the Wind rare earth index rose by 9.49%, leading all popular concept sectors, with several stocks, including Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth, hitting the daily limit [1]. - Northern Rare Earth's stock has surged over 170% year-to-date, with its current valuation reaching 75 times the expected annual profit of 2.8 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Despite the stock market's enthusiasm, the rare earth industry remains rational, with prices for various rare earth products, except for dysprosium, showing a downward trend [2]. - Baotou Steel, despite being the largest rare earth raw material base globally, derives only a small portion of its revenue from rare earth products, with steel products accounting for 77% of its total revenue in 2024 [2][4]. Group 3: Profitability Trends - Northern Rare Earth's net profit for the first three quarters is projected to be between 1.51 billion and 1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [2][3]. - The profit growth rate for Northern Rare Earth is considered typical for the basic materials sector and does not stand out significantly [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - Northern Rare Earth's profits have not returned to the historical peak levels of over 5 billion yuan in 2021 and 2022, yet its stock price is nearing the 2021 high [5][6]. - Other companies in the sector, such as China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous, have also seen their stock prices exceed the 2021 cycle highs [7]. Group 5: Regulatory Impact - Recent export control measures by the Ministry of Commerce have expanded the scope of restrictions on rare earth-related items, which may strengthen supply rigidity in the market [8][9]. - Since the announcement of these measures, the rare earth sector has experienced a continuous upward trend, with the Wind rare earth index increasing by approximately 14% [9]. Group 6: Valuation Concerns - The current valuations of rare earth companies are exceptionally high, with estimates for China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Shenghe Resources at 177 times, 83 times, and 52 times, respectively [10]. - The valuation re-evaluation in the sector has already begun, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [11].

| HK 01810 | 04.1 JIL | 21.1416 | +7.61 Z | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中芯国际 | 31.68 乙 | 18.82亿 | 50.50亿 | | HK 00981 | | | +12.86亿 | | 腾讯控股 | 26.66亿 | 18.03亿 | 44.69亿 | | HK 00700 | | | +8.63 乙 | | 来可未营体 HK 01347 | 17.99亿 | 12.39 乙 | 30.38亿 | | | | | +5.60 乙 | | 盈富基金 | 21.01亿 | 2683.27万 | 21.28亿 | | HK 02800 | | | +20.75亿 | | 美团-W | 9.741Z | 4.62亿 | 14.36亿 | | HK 03690 | | | +5.12 乙 | | 中兴通讯 | 8.33亿 | 5.35亿 | 13.68 乙 | | HK 00763 | | | +2.97 乙 | | 药明生物 | 4.28亿 | 6.96亿 | 11.24亿 | | HK 02269 | | | -2.68 Z- | ...

美国财政部长贝森特“甩锅”中国 ，称中国在特朗普见证签署加沙和平协议的同一天宣布了将给全球经济带来压力的严厉出口管制措施。“试图在与特朗普会面前获得筹码是个坏主意！特朗普周五发布了两条非常好的推文，扭转了局势，谈到了提高关税和实施任何我们需要的制裁。”“也许这是一次错误的尝试，目的是在两位领导人10月份韩国会晤之前获得筹码。”“中国人太注重象征意义了！我可以告诉你，他们在和平协议宣布当天宣布这些出口管制，给和平协议蒙上阴影，这是非常不合适的。”“中国经济表现非常糟糕。也许他们想转移人们对中国的注意力。美国在推动和平，中国在资助战争，购买俄罗斯石油、伊朗石油……也许是为了转移人们对中国的注意力。”“这是一个误判。我们现在正在沟通。” ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term evolution of imports and exports is characterized by a slight decline in export momentum and a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to elevated baselines, alongside a rebound in import growth, which compresses trade surplus and highlights the importance of domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - The current critical issue is how China's exports will perform during the strategic stalemate phase of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, especially after effectively countering U.S. trade barriers through tariffs and export controls [2]. - The impact of traditional U.S. trade barriers on China's exports is decreasing, while China's export controls have a minimal direct impact on its own exports but significantly affect other countries' industries [2][6]. - In September 2025, China's export growth rate in dollar terms was 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while import growth was 7.4%, up from 1.3% [6]. Group 2: Import Trends - The import growth rate has shown a significant seasonal rebound, indicating a potential impact on trade surplus in Q4 due to the recovery of import growth since July [2][6]. - The trade surplus has decreased, and the decline in growth rates for exports to ASEAN may be attributed to re-export regulations or a normal cooling off after a technical surge in August [6]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The long-term trend of "de-Americanization" in China's exports continues, with a sustained decline in export growth to the U.S. and re-export destinations, while maintaining high growth rates to other regions [6]. - The current export resilience is strong, with previously rushed orders being gradually digested, indicating that the impressive export performance has already accounted for the negative impacts of tariffs and order front-loading [6].

林剑表示，中国和巴基斯坦是全天候战略合作伙伴，两国铁杆友谊历久弥坚。双方始终保持高度战 略互信，在事关双方共同利益的重大问题上密切沟通。 "据我所知，关于巴美矿产合作事，中巴双方有沟通，巴方强调，巴方与美方的交往绝不会损害中 方利益和中巴合作。"林剑说："巴方领导人向美方领导人展示和赠送的矿石，是工作人员购买的巴宝石 原矿样品。你刚才提到的相关报道或是不了解实情，或是捕风捉影，甚至是挑拨离间，是缺乏根据 的。" 新华社北京10月13日电（记者邵艺博）外交部发言人林剑13日表示，中方日前发布关于稀土等相关 物项的出口管制措施，与巴基斯坦没有任何关联，这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系 的正当做法。 当日例行记者会上，有记者问：近日，有媒体报道，巴基斯坦利用中国设备和技术向美国出口稀 土，触发了中国出台严格管控稀土相关技术出口的新规，部分自媒体发表视频和文章，称"巴方向美赠 送稀土样品并同意开展稀土合作""中国出招反制巴基斯坦向美国出口稀土"。请问发言人对此有何评 论？ 林剑表示，中方日前发布关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，与巴基斯坦没有任何关联，这是中 国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正 ...

Market Overview - On October 13, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, photolithography machines, semiconductors, small metals, and military equipment saw significant gains, while automotive parts, gaming, consumer electronics, cultural media, and weight loss drugs experienced declines [1] High-Performing Stocks - Bluefeng Biochemical achieved a 9.98% increase, marking its 8th consecutive trading day of gains [3] - Controlled nuclear fusion concept stock Hezhong Intelligent rose by 10.01%, with 6 consecutive days of gains [3] - Tianji Co., a lithium hexafluorophosphate concept stock, increased by 9.99%, with 5 days of gains [3] - Other notable stocks include Shida Shenghua (+9.99%), Shen Zhenye A (+9.97%), and Antai Technology (+9.99%) [4] Trading Dynamics - The top three net purchases on the daily leaderboard were China Rare Earths (267 million yuan), Duofluor (262 million yuan), and Wangzi New Materials (238 million yuan) [6] - The top three net sales were Ganfeng Lithium (165 million yuan), Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (153 million yuan), and Guanzhong Ecology (88.9 million yuan) [6] Sector Highlights - China Rare Earths saw a significant increase in its stock price following the announcement of export controls on certain rare earth equipment and materials, which is expected to enhance supply chain management [13] - Baogang Group and Northern Rare Earth raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates to 26,205 yuan per ton, a 37.13% increase, boosting industry profitability expectations [13] - Duofluor, involved in lithium hexafluorophosphate and solid-state batteries, reported a trading volume of 33.62 billion yuan with a 9.98% increase [14] - Wangzi New Materials, focusing on controlled nuclear fusion and military electronics, also saw a trading volume of 12.31 billion yuan with a 9.98% increase [17] Institutional Activity - Institutional net purchases were significant in stocks like Duofluor (177 million yuan), Wangzi New Materials (139 million yuan), and Northern Long Dragon (113 million yuan) [8] - Conversely, net sales were observed in Ganfeng Lithium, Tianji Co., and China Rare Earths, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][4] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downward space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuations. [7] - Due to low production, rebar production increased before the holiday, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease, and the export performance remained strong, so the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [7] Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (- 20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3250 yuan (- 20). [6] Market Judgement - **Market Situation**: The black metal sector showed differentiation. Steel maintained a weak oscillating trend, while iron ore prices rose. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative trading at low prices being acceptable during the market rebound, but rigid demand was average. Some steel mills reduced production of hot - rolled and rebar, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday, with the inventory increase exceeding previous years and apparent demand dropping rapidly. [7] - **Price Forecast**: The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with limited downward space. Short - term steel prices may be under pressure due to news, but the impact of this tariff may be weaker than the "reciprocal tariff" in April. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. [7] - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Important Information** - In October 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. [8][10] - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a 10.0% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel export was 87.955 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, a 9.6% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel import was 4.532 million tons, a 12.6% year - on - year decrease. [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [14][16][18]

Group 1: Trade Restrictions - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the U.S., effective November 1[1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "entity list" on October 8, further tightening trade restrictions[2] - China announced export controls on five categories of rare earth materials and lithium battery components, effective November 8, 2025, claiming limited impact on supply chains[1] Group 2: Regulatory Measures - The U.S. will impose port fees on Chinese vessels starting October 14, as part of the Section 301 measures targeting maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries[2] - China responded with its own port fees on U.S. vessels, citing legal grounds to protect its interests[2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated an antitrust investigation against Qualcomm on October 12, indicating increased scrutiny on foreign companies operating in China[2] Group 3: Political Developments - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is scheduled for October 20-23, focusing on economic and social development under the Party's leadership[3] - The meeting emphasized the importance of high-quality development and risk prevention in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan[3]