[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 放量上涨，微盘调整 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 摘要。2025 年 12 月 12 日周五，A 股市场回暖上涨，成交额 2.12 万亿创近一个 月新高；国债期货市场全线调整；商品指数微涨，焦煤延续弱势。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场回暖，放量上涨，微盘连续调整 回暖上涨，微盘连续调整。今日 A 股核心指数集体反弹，成长类指数表现更优。 上证指数低开后震荡回升，收盘报 3889.35 点，涨幅 0.41%；深证成指报 13258.33 点，涨幅 0.84%；创业板指收于 3194.36 点，涨幅 0.97%。科创 50 指数表现突 出，上涨 1.74%，或反映硬科技板块情绪升温。 ...

智通财经APP注意到，一些分析师本周指出，在周五进行的年度成份股调整中，比特币囤积巨头Strategy(MSTR.US)可能面临被纳斯达克100指数剔除的风 险，这源于对其商业模式的质疑，该质疑已对其股价造成压力。 Strategy最初是一家软件公司，但在2020年转向比特币投资。今年早些时候，其市值在一轮火热上涨中达到1280亿美元的峰值，并于去年12月被纳入纳斯达 克100指数的科技子类别。这一决定曾受到一些市场观察人士的质疑，他们认为这种催生了数十家模仿者的先驱商业模式，更像一只投资基金。 Strategy报告称，截至9月30日的三个月实现净利润27.8亿美元，而上年同期为亏损3.402亿美元。这主要得益于一项会计变更，使其可以将所持比特币的升值 确认为收益。与此同时，这家公司的传统软件业务收入仅为1.287亿美元。 折线图显示了过去两年中Strategy和比特币的表现 指数成份调整受到密切关注，因为它们决定了哪些公司能受益于数十亿美元的被动投资者资金流。不过，Strategy创始人迈克尔·塞勒总体上淡化了对可能被 指数剔除的担忧，其他一些分析师也表示，他们预计纳斯达克周五不会删除Strategy。 盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America upgraded Visa's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price to $382, believing that concerns over stablecoin impacts and regulatory risks are overstated, as stablecoins could actually strengthen Visa's position, particularly in the cross-border B2B payment sector [1] Group 1 - Visa has facilitated over $140 billion in cryptocurrency-related transactions, which Bank of America attributes to the company's efforts in establishing new payment infrastructure [1] - The forward P/E ratio for Visa is approximately 22 times, which is about 113% of the S&P 500 valuation and close to a ten-year low, indicating that the market is undervaluing a strong company [1] - Bank of America describes the current risk-reward ratio for Visa as increasingly attractive, supported by its valuation and robust profitability [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（12月11日）纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周三纽约尾盘涨0.78%，报 93510美元。CME以太币期货DCR主力合约跌2.56%，报3277美元。 ...

责任编辑：小讯 美教师联合会敦促参议院银行委员会重新考虑一项加密市场结构法案，称其可能危及养老金；与此同 时，美银（BAC）、花旗（C）等金融企业的首席执行官正向立法者简报情况。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

美国教师联合会敦促美国参议院银行委员会重新考虑一项加密市场结构法案，称其可能危及养老金；与 此同时，美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）和富国银行（WFC）的首席执行官正向立法者简报情况。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美国教师联合会敦促美国参议院银行委员会重新考虑一项加密市场结构法案，称其可能危及养老金；与 此同时，美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）和富国银行（WFC）的首席执行官正向立法者简报情况。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced a decline, with Coinbase Global falling by 2.1% [1] - Riot Platforms saw a decrease of 2% [1] - Mara Holdings dropped by 2.8% [1] - Strategy Inc. declined by 2.9% [1] - Bitfarms' U.S. listed stock fell by 2.3% [1] - Bit Digital experienced a drop of 3.2% [1]

（来源：链科天下） 在科技与金融的交汇点上，一个可能改写数亿人数字生活方式的重磅消息震撼了加密货币与消费电子两大领域。高性能公链Sei Network宣布与全球智能型手机巨头小米（Xiaomi）达成一项里程碑式的战略合作。这项合作的核心内容是，从2026年起，小米 旗下在全球市场（不含中国大陆与美国）销售的新款智能型手机，将直接预装一款由Sei驱动的Web3应用程序。 这不仅仅是在手机上增加一个App那么简单，它代表着加密世界向主流用户迈出的、迄今为止最雄心勃勃的一步。这场跨界联 手，是否真的能为全球用户铺设一条"一键直达"加密货币的康庄大道，并引爆下一个大规模应用的浪潮？ 生态融合 根据双方于2025年12月10日发布的公告，这次合作的范围涵盖了小米旗下的主要手机品牌，包括小米（Mi）、红米（Redmi） 及POCO。这意味着，未来在欧洲、拉丁美洲、东南亚和非洲等小米拥有显著市占率的地区，消费者购买的新手机开机后，就能 在桌面上看到这款内建的加密应用。 小米在全球市场的影响力是这次合作最引人注目的基石。根据官方数据，小米在2024年的全球智能型手机出货量高达1.68亿台， 市场份额约13%，稳居全球前三。在 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked a significant period for the cryptocurrency industry, characterized by both opportunities and challenges, influenced heavily by political events and regulatory developments [1][2]. Group 1: Trump Effect and Market Dynamics - The inauguration of Trump as President of the United States in January 2025 reignited bullish sentiment in the crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices approaching $100,000 [3][5]. - The launch of the "Trump official Meme coin" saw its market cap surge from approximately $4 billion to over $80 billion, creating substantial wealth for many investors [4]. - Trump's influence on crypto regulation became evident as he appointed pro-crypto officials and pushed for clearer regulatory frameworks, including the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve [6][10]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Economic Impact - The onset of a global trade war initiated by Trump in April led to significant market corrections, with BTC dropping to around $77,000 and Ethereum (ETH) hitting a low of $1,540 [10]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell to $2.6 trillion, reflecting a daily decline of over 9% [10]. - Despite the downturn, ETH began to recover, eventually surpassing its previous all-time high of $4,800, driven by the emergence of ETH treasury companies [11][14]. Group 3: Innovations in Financial Products - The second quarter saw the rise of stock tokenization platforms, with major exchanges like Kraken and Bybit launching services for trading tokenized stocks [17][20]. - The introduction of stablecoins gained traction, with companies like Circle going public, further integrating stablecoins into mainstream finance [10][17]. - The emergence of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi gained prominence, with valuations reaching $110 billion and $120-150 billion, respectively [24][25]. Group 4: Market Corrections and Future Outlook - A significant market crash occurred on October 11, 2025, with BTC dropping to $101,516 and ETH to $3,400, resulting in estimated losses of $30-40 billion [22][23]. - The aftermath of the crash led to a slow recovery in the market, with a shift in focus towards prediction markets as a new trading venue [24][25]. - The ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape continues to be shaped by regulatory developments and traditional financial market dynamics, indicating a complex future ahead for investors [25].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $90,000 mark, driven by new concerns regarding the profitability outlook in the artificial intelligence sector, which negatively impacted tech stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price dropped by 2.5% to $90,056.24, while Ethereum fell by 4.3% to $3,196.62, erasing gains from the previous two days [1][2] - Asian stock markets declined, and European and U.S. stock index futures indicated a lower opening for both regions [3] Analyst Insights - Sydney IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that despite a generally positive performance in risk assets, cryptocurrencies failed to follow suit, indicating a need for more concrete evidence to confirm the end of the market sell-off that occurred on October 10 [3] - Standard Chartered Bank downgraded its Bitcoin price forecast from $200,000 by the end of 2025 to $100,000 [3] - Jeff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that the buying behavior of Bitcoin reserve companies is likely coming to an end, suggesting that future price increases will depend primarily on demand from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2][3]