Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy faced significant challenges but showed resilience, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [1][15] - China's total import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, and a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time [1][3] Trade Dynamics - Despite a decline in exports to the US by 18.9%, China saw increased exports to ASEAN and the EU, indicating a diversification of trade markets [4][6] - Private enterprises have become the mainstay of foreign trade, with their imports and exports growing by 7.1%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [6][8] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to boost domestic demand and consumer spending, with a focus on addressing the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [19][25] - The proportion of final consumption in GDP reached 56.6%, indicating room for growth compared to developed countries [17] Policy Initiatives - A new initiative to implement a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan" aims to enhance income levels and stimulate consumption [27][28] - The government plans to optimize policies related to consumption, including doubling the budget for the "two new" policies to 300 billion yuan, which has already driven significant sales growth [26][30] Market Stability and Quality Improvement - The focus is shifting from quantity to quality in production, with measures to combat "involution" in various industries [21][24] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market to boost consumer confidence, with policies to manage inventory and improve supply [33][35]

Economic Outlook - The economic situation in China this year is better than expected, with major economic indicators showing strong resilience and vitality, leading to a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1] - China continues to be the largest engine of global economic growth [1] Innovation and Technology - The government emphasizes the need to accelerate original innovation and expand international technology innovation centers, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai [3][5] - A focus on innovation-driven growth is set for next year's economic work, aiming to cultivate new economic drivers [3][36] Environmental Policies - From next year, there will be effective control over high energy-consuming and high-emission projects as part of a comprehensive green transition [7] - The government plans to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and promote the application of green and low-carbon technologies [9] Consumer Spending - The government aims to boost consumption through special actions and plans to increase urban and rural residents' income, including raising basic pensions [11] - Policies will be optimized to remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, thereby unleashing the potential for service consumption [13] Film Industry Growth - As of December 13, 2025, China's film box office has surpassed 50 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 7.5 billion yuan [13] - Domestic films account for nearly 82% of the total box office, with a diverse range of genres achieving international standards [15] - The film industry is transitioning from traditional box office revenue to a multi-consumption ecosystem, contributing significantly to economic growth [21] Forestry and Sustainable Practices - A three-year pilot program for sustainable forest management has been initiated, covering 40.49 million acres [23] - The program aims to enhance forest quality and economic benefits, with significant increases in tree growth rates and biodiversity [25][29] - The initiative has generated economic benefits of 7.86 billion yuan and increased labor income for forestry workers by 10.52 billion yuan [34] Industrial Transformation - The focus on innovation is driving the modernization of the industrial system, with traditional industries undergoing transformation through technology [36] - Companies are increasingly adopting artificial intelligence to enhance production efficiency and product quality [38][40] - Efforts are being made to improve the business environment, with significant reductions in approval times for projects [45][47]

中国经济面面观｜中央经济工作会议释放哪些重要信号？ "深入实施提振消费专项行动""扩大优质商品和服务供给""优化'两新'政策实施""清理消费领域不合理限 制措施"……聚焦提振消费，会议作出一系列部署。 复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇认为，通过财政政策与货币政策协同发力，短期补贴与长 期社会保障并重，消费潜力将进一步激发；同时，投资领域将迎来更多重大工程和项目，为经济增长提 供强劲动力。 会议强调，"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，并提出"制定一体推进教育科技人才发展方案""建 设北京(京津冀)、上海(长三角)、粤港澳大湾区国际科技创新中心"等一系列具体部署。 稀宇科技副总裁严奕骏认为，每一次的技术迭代和发展，都给整个社会非常大的信心，京津冀、长三 角、粤港澳大湾区各自拥有强势产业，并与人工智能有很好的结合，新技术的应用会更好地赋能经济增 长，前景非常广阔。 "十四五"临近收官，"十五五"即将开篇。资深金融工作者滕印认为，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基 本趋势没有改变，坚定了我们鼓足干劲、应对挑战、砥砺前行的信心和决心，我们对经济的发展充满信 心。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized the need for practical and innovative measures to boost consumption, focusing on optimizing policies and enhancing service consumption [1] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement - The conference highlighted the importance of implementing a consumption upgrade policy, including the promotion of trade-in programs for consumer goods [1] - There is a call to accelerate the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to improve supply quality [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The meeting discussed the need to comprehensively address "involution" competition and foster new development dynamics [1] - It emphasized the importance of cultivating emerging and future industries, particularly through the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] - The conference also mentioned the need to enhance the low-altitude economy and promote high-quality development in the digital economy [1] Group 3: Reform and Market Integration - The conference proposed the formulation of a national unified market construction regulation to facilitate integrated reforms in access, scenarios, and factors [1] - There is a focus on improving investment attraction and addressing key issues in bidding and tendering processes to eliminate various barriers [1] Group 4: Support for Private Economy - The meeting called for greater efforts to develop the private economy and promote the establishment of supporting systems for the Private Economy Promotion Law [1]

在中央明确定调"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"的工作要求下，商业银行将 以扎实的金融服务落实工作。 中经记者 郭建杭 北京报道 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议确定，明年经济工作抓好八项重点任务，其 中"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"被置于首位。会议明确指出，深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定 实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实施。清理消费领域不合理限制措 施，释放服务消费潜力。推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优 化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推 进城市更新。 在释放服务消费潜力方面，商业银行消费金融服务创新是落实金融赋能民生消费的重要一环。《中国经 营报》记者了解到，以往银行的大额消费贷业务主要惠及企事业单位及公务员等群体，但这一格局正在 发生显著变化。随着信用数据持续完善，银行线上消费贷风控技术能力加强，目前银行正加速将大额消 费贷业务向更多的企业客群下沉，进一步释放消费市场潜力。 释放民企员工消费潜力 消费金融服务下沉至民营企业员工群体将对 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF智选） 昨天的会议通稿，让人信心十足。 两相对比之下，可以看到：去年实际上是存在着"问题不一定能很快解决"的担忧的，但经过了一年的实 践，发现这些问题"经过努力是可以解决的"，相比去年的会议而言，信心大增。 信心大增对市场一定是好事吗？那倒也不全然如此。 事实上，通稿中更强调存量政策发挥效果，而非继续强调使用增量超常规政策。 也就是说，在某些大家都没想到的行业出现超预期的政策，概率不大。 更可能的是，在大家已经知道的行业持续发力，量变产生质变。 比如说，这次对于消费的表述出现了重大变化，把消费放到了很高的位置上。 会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突 出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势 没有改变。 而2024年的表述是： 会议指出，当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，我国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战，主要是国内 需求不足，部分企业生产经营困难，群众就业增收面临压力，风险隐患仍然较多。 同时必须看到，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting led by Wang Wentao emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in commerce and ensuring the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's directives in the business sector [1] Group 1: Consumer and Trade Development - There is a strong focus on boosting consumption and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [1] - The implementation of policies for replacing old consumer goods with new ones is prioritized to unleash the potential of service consumption [1] - The meeting calls for innovative development in trade, promoting the integration of trade and investment, as well as the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1] Group 2: Open Market and Foreign Investment - The meeting stresses the need for steady progress in institutional openness and the orderly expansion of self-initiated openness in the service sector [1] - There is a commitment to reforming the foreign investment promotion system to create new advantages for attracting foreign capital [1] - The meeting encourages the signing of more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements to enhance international cooperation [1] Group 3: Digital and Green Trade - The promotion of digital trade and green trade is highlighted as a key area for development [1] - The meeting aims to optimize and upgrade goods trade while supporting service exports [1] - There is an emphasis on guiding the rational and orderly cross-border layout of supply chains [1]

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

消息面上，中央经济工作会议于2025年12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议确定了2026年"八大"经济工作 重点任务，将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于2026年经济工作重点任务首位，进一步明确了提 振消费专项行动、城乡居民增收计划、扩大优质商品和服务供给、优化"两新"（大规模设备更新、消费 品以旧换新）政策实施、释放服务消费潜力等措施及政策的重要作用。 中银证券表示，结合会议确定的2026年重点任务，从社会服务行业的视角，预计内需主导是提振消费的 重要支撑动力。 12月12日，港股三大指数午盘持续走强，港股消费ETF（513230）涨幅持续扩大，现涨近1.5%，其持仓 股多数飘红，老铺黄金、名创优品、理想汽车、创科实业、蒙牛乳业、小米集团等涨幅靠前，仅古茗、 雅迪控股、中国儒意、统一企业中国等跌幅居前。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米等 互联网电商龙头。 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘诗萌 北京报道 在"十五五"时期新型城镇化成为扩大内需重要抓手的背景下，县域经济将在2026年迎来新的发展机遇。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中 求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治 理效能。其中明确提到，要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施 城乡居民增收计划。 《华夏时报》记者注意到，早在2025年3月中办、国办发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》中就明确提到 要实行七大行动，其中包括城乡居民增收促进行动。不过作为"城乡居民增收计划"，此次这一新提法是 首次被写入了年末最重要的高层会议。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞向《华夏时报》记者表示，此次会议明确提出"制定实施城乡居民增收计 划"，建议可以通过进一步提高最低工资水平、降低税赋、提高居民财产性收入等方式提高居民收入， 进一步释放消费潜能。 袁海霞也认为，一方面，通过调整完善个税体系，促进中等收入群体的消费能力与意愿，包括下调中低 档个税税率、延续并加大个税优惠政策力 ...