根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，联邦基金利率期货走势显示，市场预计美联储在9月16-17日会议上降息的 概率为71.8%，远低于周三的82%和一周前的95%。 从技术上来看，美元指数周四上涨在98.70之下遇阻，下跌在98.15之上受到支持，意味着美元短线下跌 后有可能保持上涨的走势。如果美指今天下跌在98.30之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向98.80--99.00 之间。今天美元走势短线阻力在98.75--98.80，短线重要阻力在98.95--99.00。今天美指短线支持在98.30- -98.35，短线重要支持在98.00--98.05。 技术动能指标好坏参半，5日、10日、21日移动均线攀升21日布林带区间收缩，显示底部正在形成，初 步支撑位是上日低点98.18，然后是本周低点97.80，上周高点98.67是第一阻力位，下一道阻力是8月5日 高点99.08。 周五（8月22日）亚市早盘，美元指数持稳近两周高位附近，鲍威尔讲话前，三位美联储官员给9月降 息"泼冷水"，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔讲话的基调对市场至关重要。 周四（8月21日），美联储内部关于是否降息的讨论再度升温，亚特兰大联储主席博斯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.41% to 98.65, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies declined, with the euro falling by 0.39% to 1.1606 against the dollar [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.32% to 1.3413 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar dropped by 0.20% to 0.6421 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.73% against the Japanese yen, reaching 148.3780 [1] - The dollar rose by 0.25% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.3910 [1] - The dollar also increased by 0.57% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8087 [1]

格隆汇8月21日｜PMI数据公布后，美元指数短线拉升13个点，现报98.49。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值 55.4，预期 54.2，前值 55.7。 美国8月Markit综合PMI初值 55.4，预期 53.5，前值 55.1。 美国PMI数据公布后，美元指数短线走高，现涨0.22%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

能够激发市场避险情绪的事件越来越少。以色列和伊朗，6月24日正式结束冲突；泰国和柬埔寨7月28日结束冲突。现如今，持续三年多时间的 俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突，也面临偃旗息鼓的局面。 本周一，美国总统在与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤后表示，已经开始计划俄罗斯总统普京与泽连斯基的会晤，地点尚未确定。此次会晤后，特朗 普还将举行包括普京、泽连斯基和他本人的三方会晤。已经有政府官员声称，俄罗斯和乌克兰的会晤将会在未来两周内进行，地点有可能在匈 牙利。 从媒体报道来看，俄罗斯和乌克兰签署和平协议，已经是大概率事件。或者说，已经是市场的主流预期。延续三年多时间的避险情绪，在面对 和平协议大概率签署的局面时，将会彻底丧失对国际金价的提振作用。 黄金的最新报价在3338美元上下，距离历史最高点3499美元仅有161美元差距，金价依旧处于相对历史高位区间。但是，这种抗跌的属性并不主 要来自于避险属性，而是主要来自于美元指数的下跌。 特朗普入主白宫以来，各项激进的对内和对外措施，令华尔街以及全球金融机构无比紧张和失望。资金纷纷出逃美国，导致美元指数持续重 挫。今年1月份，美元指数最高触及110.18高点，现如今，美元指数最低跌至96.37， ...

今年以来，美国持续对全球多国滥施关税威胁，并通过这些关税构建"美国胜利"的叙事——似乎征收关税就等于美国赢了。 表面看，美国平均有效关税税率飙升至18.6%，创下1933年来最高纪录。仅2025年7月，美国关税收入就进账296亿美元，全年已突破1500亿美元。 然而，关税的财政收益并未转化为货币强势——就在美国凭借关税大获收入的同时，美元却在持续走弱。 年初至今，美元指数已下跌近10%。今年上半年，美元更是创下50年来最大的年中跌幅。 一进一退之间，也折射出了一个深层问题：美国收获了关税，失去了什么。 一个舞台剧再精彩，也需要有观众。对于美元这个全球最大的金融舞台来说，最重要的观众，就是国际资本。 而现在，一些观众似乎正在悄悄离席。 最直观的指标，就是美元指数。今年以来，美元指数从约109跌至约98，跌幅达到近10%。而在此之前，美元指数一直处于上升趋势。 从今年的几个节点来看，美国政府的关税政策加速了这场下行。4月3日，在美国政府宣布对全球加征所谓"对等"关税后，美元指数下跌1.6%，创下2022年 来单日最大跌幅。 美元指数诞生于1973年，是美元相对于其他六种主要货币的加权汇率。其中欧元权重最大，为57 ...

来源：闫瑞祥_ 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出震荡的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至98.418的位置，最低则下探至98.055位置，最终以 98.225的 价格收盘。回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格向上延续刺破周线及日线阻力，随后价格再度向下回撤调整，从当天最终收盘看价格十字状态收 尾，目前美指属于低位震荡盘整，整体依旧看震荡后上行。 从多周期分析，周线级别来看近期价格在周线支撑上下盘整，本周重点关注98.30位置站稳，一旦站稳则中期多头将延续上行。在日线级别上，在 上周价格压制在日线阻力位置下方持续震荡，目前日线阻力于98.20位置，目前在此区域震荡，后续关注进一步突破上涨。从四小时上看，四小时 上是我们一直强调短期价格走势的关键，目前价格依旧在四小时支撑98.20上方，所以暂时短期依旧偏多。从一小时上看，观察下方图表趋势线可 以看到，目前短线先关注98.10-20区间支撑，上方关注98.60-99区域。 欧美 欧美方面，周三欧美价格总体呈现上涨的状态。当日价格最低下跌至1.1621位置，最高上涨至1.1673位置，收盘于1.1649位置。回顾周三欧美市场 表现，早盘价格短线先向下运行， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Wednesday, indicating that downstream demand cannot absorb high prices in the short term. In the short run, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. - Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe that current prices have largely fulfilled previous expectations, but it takes time to digest price increases. - Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the short term, the US dollar index has strong support below, which exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2510C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased interest - rate cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level is raised [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - Adjustments to US copper tariff policies result in an extremely high COMEX inventory [4][5] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,640 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 240 | - 0.3% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,721 | 36.5 | 0.38% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | - 0.01 | - 0.12% | [4] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,770 | - 330 | - 0.42% | | Shanghai Material Trade | yuan/ton | 78,685 | - 365 | - 0.46% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 340 | - 0.43% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,850 | - 370 | - 0.47% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 190 | - 5 | - 2.56% | | Shanghai Material Trade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | - 15 | - 11.54% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | - 15 | - 9.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | - 10 | - 5.41% | [11] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 944.04 | - 105.85 | - 10.08% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,487.1 | - 4.25 | - 0.28% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 543.06 | - 101.6 | 23.01% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,610 | - 125 | - 2.18% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,162.47 | - 29.5 | - 0.48% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 552.47 | - 95.5 | 20.9% | [16] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts - Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts: 25,223 tons, a daily decrease of 275 tons (- 1.08%) - Total international copper warehouse receipts: 6,724 tons, a daily decrease of 2,056 tons (- 23.42%) [20] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME copper inventory: 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons (0.77%) - LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 145,600 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons (1.18%) - LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 4.44%) [22] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX copper inventory: 270,536 tons, a weekly increase of 3,741 tons (1.4%) - COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 136,699 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,299 tons (- 0.07%) - COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 133,837 tons, a weekly increase of 693 tons (0.52%) [23] Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 354.75 | 22.36 | 6.73% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 38.2 | - 0.53 | 1.41% | [24]

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.03% to 98.25, with most non-US currencies experiencing declines [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.04% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1651 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.27% against the US dollar, trading at 1.3456 [1] - The Australian dollar declined by 0.32% against the US dollar, at 0.6434 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.25% against the Japanese yen, priced at 147.3070 [1] - The US dollar increased by 0.05% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.3875 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.45% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8042 [1]