美东时间6月9日周一美股早盘时段，媒体称，美国总统特朗普授权，可能谈判调整出口举措。 消息传出后，美股芯片股和热门中概股总体加速上涨。 费城半导体指数刷新日高，日内近3%，纳微半导体涨约21%，Wolfspeed涨9.3%，半导体ETF SOXL涨约9%，AMD涨4.8%，Arm 控股涨4.5%，新思科技涨4%，阿斯麦ADR涨3.4%，英伟达涨约2%，台积电ADR涨1.7%。 北京时间6月5日上周四晚，中美两国元首通电话。央视新媒体玉渊谭天发文指出，有关两国元首通电话的新闻稿提到： "中国人一向言必行、行必果，既然达成了共识，双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方 应实事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。" 文章称，这段话有两个重点词，分别对应两层意思。一个是"言必行、行必果"，它表达了中方不满。在日内瓦会谈之后，中方 按照联合声明达成的共识，取消或暂停了针对美"对等关税"采取的相关关税和非关税措施。美方却小动作不断，陆续新增出台 多项对华歧视性限制措施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件（EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等。 文章写道，中方明确表达了不满 ...

特朗普政府可能对白银和铜等金属征收关税的担忧导致市场持仓量快速 增加，黄金价格在 3,000 美元/盎司以上企稳，关税叙事减弱，贵金属向 上突破阻力减小，投资者应关注相关标的。 4 月关税冲击和中重稀土管制后，终端需求和出口需求担忧加剧，5 月 谈判缓和后衰退预期减弱，但出口管制持续。5 月末，海关总署出口审 批周期及海外企业库存见底，中国商务部释放改善出口善意，增强外需 修复预期，带动稀土价格上涨。 6 月初中美元首通话后，美国总统拜登表示稀土复杂性不再是问题，中 国商务部表示已依法批准一定数量合规申请，将继续加强审批工作，稀 土资源板块战略属性得到市场认可，值得关注。 当前铜铝市场处于强现实弱预期阶段，估值性价比突出。考虑到特朗普 政府面临美债到期压力，预计全球宏观层面将保持平稳，铜铝现实层面 的强势将有所修复。 港股市场中黄金和磁性材料标的更具投资价值，AH 股市场都有的标的 一般港股存在折价，且港元挂钩美元联系汇率制，若美国最终走放水路 线，将利好港股标的。 Q&A 贵金属市场近期的表现及未来预期如何？ 近期铂、钯、银等贵金属价格出现上涨，主要原因有两点。首先，4 月份以来 关税避险情绪有所下降，衰退 ...

Group 1 - China has implemented export controls on rare earths three times since the end of last year, impacting various industries including electric vehicles, semiconductors, and military sectors, particularly in the United States [1] - The recent issuance of temporary export licenses for rare earths to three major American automakers is seen as a strategic move by China, rather than a complete cessation of supply [5][7] - China's dual objectives are to exert pressure on its competitors to alter their protectionist trade practices while maintaining its dominant position in the rare earth market [9] Group 2 - In response to the U.S. imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, China enacted export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths in April, which took immediate effect [11] - Key rare earth elements like gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium are critical for U.S. military applications, with the F-47 fighter jet requiring 8-12 kilograms of rare earths, double that of the F-35 [13] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earths, with 83.7% of imports in 2024 coming from China, and a staggering 97% dependency on heavy rare earths [13][19] Group 3 - China controls 90% of global rare earth refining capacity and holds 37 high-purity extraction patents, giving it a significant technological advantage [17] - In 2023, China's rare earth production reached 240,000 tons, accounting for two-thirds of global output, with reserves of 44 million tons, representing 40% of the world's total [19] - The U.S. faces a long road to re-establishing a complete supply chain for rare earths, with estimates suggesting it could take at least 20 years [21] Group 4 - China's strategy of "controlled release" of rare earths aims to keep competitors in a state of dependency, balancing pressure and supply to align with its national interests [23] - To maintain its long-term advantage, China must combat smuggling of rare earth materials and enhance resource recycling, particularly from waste electric motors [25] - The recent adjustments in China's rare earth export policy demonstrate strategic acumen, effectively constraining competitors while solidifying its market dominance [27]

Core Viewpoint - China's new export control regulations on certain rare earth items are seen as a proactive alignment with international norms, driven by the dual-use nature of rare earth elements and the need for sustainable industry development [1][2][5]. Group 1: Export Control Regulations - The core legal basis for China's export control is the dual-use nature of rare earth materials, which are essential for both civilian and military applications [2]. - The regulations aim to prevent these strategic resources from being used in activities that could undermine international peace and security, fulfilling international non-proliferation obligations [2][5]. - China's approach is characterized as a responsible action to maintain world peace and regional stability, rather than a targeted barrier against specific countries [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Development and Governance - The introduction of the 2024 Rare Earth Management Regulations marks a new phase of legal governance in China's rare earth industry, addressing past issues of unsustainable development and illegal mining [3]. - The establishment of a traceability information system for rare earth products aims to create a transparent network across the entire industry chain, targeting smuggling and tax evasion [3]. - China's reforms are focused on transitioning the rare earth industry from an environmentally damaging growth model to one that emphasizes high-quality, sustainable development [3]. Group 3: Balancing National and Global Interests - China recognizes its responsibility as the largest producer and exporter of rare earths and seeks to balance national security, industrial development, and global supply chain stability [4]. - The goal is to regulate exports rather than prohibit them, promoting compliant trade while maintaining open commercial relations [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed willingness to expedite approvals for compliant applications, demonstrating a commitment to minimizing the impact of control measures on normal trade [4].

【文/观察者网 熊超然】"中国在稀土供应链上的成功，改变了贸易谈判中的力量平衡。" 当地时间6月8日，英国《金融时报》围绕这一观点，同时援引分析人士和商界人士报道指出，中国掌握着关键矿产供应链的主导权， 在美国总统特朗普咄咄逼人滥施关税后，中方出台一系列稀土出口管制，这不仅给美方带来了压力，还为中方提供了对美博弈的筹 码，更表明中方有能力对更为广泛的关键商品实施出口管制措施。 分析人士指出，出口管制不仅帮助中国反制了美国，还打击了那些迫于美国压力而对中国采取更强硬立场的第三国，而在稀土出口管 制方面发现杠杆作用后，中国未来还可以将这种方式复制到高科技供应链的其他领域，比如：针对美方可能进一步收紧的芯片管制， 将钛、镁和轻稀土等材料也纳入出口许可制度中。 此外，中国还在新型超强磁铁、晶体管、电池、新型芯片和软件等生产方面具有主导地位，在电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车、无人机、机 器人、传感器、智能手机等领域构建了"强大的产业协同生态系统"，以及相应的半导体、电池和人工智能技术。"杠杆平衡正迅速向有 利于中国的方向倾斜，特朗普和他的团队才刚刚开始意识到这一事实。"一名分析人士表示。 江苏连云港等待出口的稀土 路透社 今年 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | ...

Core Insights - The rare metals theme index has shown a positive trend, with a 0.58% increase as of June 9, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Zhongke Magnetic Materials (up 11.96%) and Beikong Technology (10% limit up) [1] - The rare metals ETF has experienced significant trading activity, with a turnover of 2.79% and a transaction volume of 25.27 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past year [4] - The valuation of the index tracked by the rare metals ETF is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.18, indicating strong value for investors [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for medium and heavy rare earths in civilian applications is increasing globally, driven by industries such as robotics and electric vehicles, as stated by the Ministry of Commerce [4] - Since the implementation of partial rare earth export controls in April, the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets has decreased by over 50% month-on-month, reaching a historical low in the past five years [4][5] - Analysts suggest monitoring the issuance of rare earth quotas in China and the demand situation overseas as export controls may ease, with expectations of moderate price increases for rare earths benefiting the equity sector [5] Investment Opportunities - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metals theme index account for 54.9% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [5] - Investors can also participate in the rare metals sector through the rare metals ETF linked fund (014111) [5]

Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism will take place in London from June 8 to June 13, with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng attending at the invitation of the UK government [2] - US President Trump announced that key officials, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross, will meet with Chinese representatives on June 9 to discuss trade agreements [2] - The talks are expected to address the expansion of rare earth exports from China, which is a significant point of interest for the US [2][3] Group 2: US Army Parade - A large-scale parade will be held in Washington on June 14 to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, coinciding with President Trump's 79th birthday [4] - The event is estimated to cost between $25 million and $45 million and will involve 50 aircraft, 150 military vehicles, and 6,600 soldiers [4] - The parade will include various celebrations such as fireworks, military displays, and performances, aiming to showcase the history of the Army from the Revolutionary War to the present [4] Group 3: G7 Summit - The G7 summit will take place in Canada from June 15 to June 17, with leaders from G7 countries expected to attend, along with invited leaders from South Africa, Ukraine, and Australia [6][7] - US tariffs are anticipated to be a major topic of discussion during the summit, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Japan regarding tariffs [6] - Indian Prime Minister Modi confirmed his attendance at the G7 summit, emphasizing the strong ties between India and Canada [7]

稀土矿藏集中在中国，产量占全球份额的7成。在冶炼领域（从矿石中提取稀土并制造化合物），中国 的市场份额超过9成。中国产稀土磁铁也被认为占到市场的8成以上。 稀土磁铁不仅用于汽车，对于美军主力战斗机F35和导弹等的制造也不可或缺。过去，日本企业在用于 高科技设备的高性能磁铁领域具有优势。但中国政企携手推进提高技术和降低成本，赢得了全球订单。 出产稀土的内蒙古自治区政府5月29日宣布，在包头市的稀土产业开发区，稀土磁铁的新工厂将从10月 启动试产。该开发区2024年投资318亿元。将推进增强稀土冶炼和磁铁制造能力等。 | 和舒 | 对于生产用于纯电动汽车和战斗机 的高性能磁铁不可或缺 | | --- | --- | | | 应用于医疗激光和照明用发光二极 | | | 管(LED) | | | 用于医疗器械和核能发电设备等 | 稀土矿藏集中在中国，产量占全球7成。在冶炼领域，中国的份额超过9成。中国产稀土磁铁 也被认为占到市场的8成以上。在加强稀土管制的4月，中国的磁铁出口同比减少4成…… 中国在重要矿物稀土的加工领域也在加强1强格局。使用稀土的磁铁对于高科技产品和武器的制造不可 或缺，中国占到全球产量的8成以上。 ...

中信证券研报认为，自4月我国实行部分稀土出口管制以来，4月稀土永磁出口量环比下降50%以上，创 下近5年稀土永磁出口数据的历史新低，含有镝铽等元素的稀土磁材是新能源车驱动电机的关键材料， 海外多家车企宣告原料库存紧张。 机构指出，后续稀土出口管制放松或对价格上涨呈助推作用，稀土板块迎估值提升之后再迎利润增厚双 击。 该研报进一步指出，近期商务部回应，对符合规定的稀土出口许可申请中方将予以批准。受出口或逐步 放松预期影响，市场上调稀土原料报价。参考此前国内锗、镓、锑等出口管制金属价格走势，多数金属 在出口管制后初期价格下跌或持稳，海外价格快速上涨，随着出口许可发放，金属出口逐步恢复，国内 价格锚定海外高价明显上涨，内外价差收敛以国内上涨方式进行。因此，后续稀土出口管制放松或对价 格上涨呈助推作用，稀土板块迎估值提升之后再迎利润增厚双击。 6月9日，稀土永磁板块涨幅居前，截至发稿，九菱科技涨超16%，中科磁业涨超13%，北矿科技、科恒 股份、英洛华等多股大涨。 | 代码 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | 主力净量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 873305 九菱科技 | 16.44% ...