Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, criticized the Federal Reserve's approach, advocating for a return to a more traditional, low-profile stance in monetary policy and less public communication [1][2] Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Warsh argued that the Fed has been too vocal and involved in social issues, failing to hold lawmakers accountable for excessive spending [1] - He emphasized that the Fed should not rely heavily on economic data for decision-making, as such data is often lagging and subject to revisions [1][2] - Warsh suggested that the Fed should operate without the expectation of public applause or scrutiny, indicating a need for a strategic reset to restore credibility [2] Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Warsh referenced a historical Fed motto of "never explain, never apologize," highlighting a time when the Fed maintained a more reserved public presence [2] - He noted that past Fed leaders, like Paul Volcker, often avoided public discussions about the economy, contrasting with the current Fed's more open communication style initiated by Ben Bernanke [2] Group 3: Political Context and Future Implications - Warsh's potential nomination as Fed Chair has been a topic of speculation, especially following Trump's recent comments about Powell's performance and the independence of the Fed [3] - He affirmed the importance of the Fed's operational independence from political pressures while also stating that the Fed should be open to serious questioning when monetary policy outcomes are poor [3]

价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...

欧洲央行管理委员会成员Peter Kazimir称，欧洲央行将在未来几个月实现通胀目标，但面临高度不确定 性之际必须保持谨慎。"通胀正在接近其目标，我相信我们将在未来几个月内达到目标，"这位斯洛伐克 官员周二在专栏文章中表示。"不过，我们仍保持谨慎态度。我们必须这样做，尤其是在当今动荡且混 乱的环境下。我们必须保持警惕和灵活。"此番讲话意味着欧洲央行将更快实现2%的通胀率目标，央行 在3月的上一轮季度预测中表示这一里程碑可能要到2026年初才能实现。在官员们计划下一步行动之 际，6月的展望可能至关重要。 ...

卡兹米尔：欧洲央行接近通胀目标 金十数据4月22日讯，欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔说，欧洲央行可能在未来几个月实现2%的通胀目标，但整 体经济前景太不确定，欧洲央行无法就下一步政策举措提供任何有意义的指导。卡兹米尔表示："通胀 正在接近目标，我相信我们将在未来几个月内达到目标。"欧洲央行早些时候预测，到2026年初，通胀 率只会达到2%，因此卡兹米尔的言论表明，在当前环境下，价格增长可能会比上次预测的下降得更 快。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，尽管美国关税政策带来不确定性，日本央行官员认为目前基本无 需调整既有的渐进加息方针。 知情人士表示，日本央行官员认为特朗普政府的关税政策及各国的反制措施可能削弱日本经济，或延缓 央行实现通胀目标的进程。但他们补充道，在等待更多数据评估关税影响期间，官员们对整体经济前景 的预测基本保持不变。 多位消息人士指出，鉴于经济走势存在多种可能性，官员们认为现在将其纳入基准情景并大幅调整政策 立场为时尚早。 据悉，在5月1日结束的为期两天的政策会议上，官员们将根据届时掌握的全部数据信息对政策利率作出 最终决定。消息人士透露，虽然日本央行将提出基准情景预测，但很可能同时明确表示，由于关税政策 的不确定性，经济前景仍不明朗。 面对经济与通胀的多重风险，知情人士称央行正在研究极端情况下的应对预案。 据透露，央行很可能在本次政策会议结束后发布的季度经济报告中下调物价预期。调整主要源于日元走 强、油价下跌及经济可能疲软等因素。消息人士称，央行对2027财年的首份核心通胀预测值可能维持在 2%左右。 自日本央行1月发布展望报告以来，日元对美元已升值约11%，而截至本周一原油价格下跌约13%。经 济 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Developments - The UK government announced a suspension of global tariffs on 89 products, saving UK businesses at least £17 million annually [1] - Japan's Prime Minister warned that US tariffs could disrupt the global economic order, with no current plans for additional budgets or retaliatory tariffs [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor stated that monetary policy will be guided by the sustainable achievement of a 2% inflation target, without pre-judging economic conditions [1] - Japan's ruling party official emphasized that Japan should not use its US Treasury holdings as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations, highlighting the need to strengthen the yen through corporate strength [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister indicated that foreign exchange issues will be handled by the Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary [1] Group 2: International Trade and Economic Policies - Argentina has abandoned its crawling peg exchange rate mechanism, allowing the peso to float within a range [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore adjusted the slope of the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate while maintaining the width and midpoint unchanged [1] - US Commerce Secretary expressed no concerns regarding the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted that the risk of economic recession depends on the progress of trade agreements [2] - Reports suggest that the actual savings from the US government's efficiency department may be less than the claimed 15% [2] - The EU is considering establishing a defense fund to alleviate defense debt issues [2] - Germany's incoming Chancellor stated that Trump's tariff policies have increased the risk of a financial crisis and advocated for a US-EU free trade agreement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel stated that tariffs have severely worsened the global growth outlook [1] Group 1 - Financial market volatility is expected to persist [1] - The European Central Bank is likely to achieve its inflation target this year [1] - The ECB will make responsible decisions next week based on data and new information [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have declined by 0.67% due to improved market sentiment and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with current prices at $3,002 [1] - The optimism in Wall Street trading is reflected in the slight increase in market sentiment, despite gold prices failing to maintain upward momentum, which has risen over 13% this year [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has shown a significant decline from 52.7 to 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 54.3, highlighting strong growth in the services sector [5] Group 2 - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the Fed may only cut rates once this year, with inflation expected to return to target levels around 2027 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged by 8 basis points to 4.331%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [4] - The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.20% to 104.35, further impacting gold's performance [5] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently facing pressure, with a potential drop below $3,000 if the downward trend continues, exposing previous volatility highs [7] - If gold maintains above $3,000, the first resistance level will be the peak of $3,047 reached in March, followed by this year's high of $3,057 and the $3,100 mark [7]

Policy Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2023-2025, indicating a stable economic outlook[2] - The inflation target has been lowered to 2.0%, suggesting a focus on optimizing indicators rather than aggressively boosting growth[2] - Fiscal policies have seen marginal increases in deficit rates and special bonds, but these adjustments remain within previously disclosed limits[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted towards moderate easing; however, liquidity remains tight in the short term, indicating a cautious approach[2] - The government is expected to maintain a precise and effective policy stance rather than aggressively driving GDP growth[2][3] External Factors - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, surpassing initial optimistic expectations for improved relations[4] - Gradual tariffs may peak in the second quarter, as both sides recognize the need for time to address underlying issues[1] Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is under pressure, and any upward price movements in domestic commodities may rely heavily on supply-side constraints[5] - Inflation is unlikely to show significant improvement in the first half of the year, with a focus on the second half for potential policy adjustments[6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in the index by over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [35]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the US service sector, but concerns about "stagflation" are resurfacing due to significant declines in consumer spending and persistent inflation pressures [1]. - In Europe, while service inflation has eased, overall CPI growth has exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in risk appetite within the Eurozone [1]. - Domestic manufacturing and service PMI have shown seasonal recovery post-holiday, but sustainability of this recovery remains a concern [3]. - The government has indicated a proactive stance on economic policies, emphasizing the importance of consumption, technological innovation, and stability in real estate and stock markets [3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The US economy is facing challenges with consumer spending showing the largest decline in four years, while inflation remains difficult to control [1]. - European economic indicators are stabilizing, supported by expectations of loose fiscal policies in Germany [1]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic PMI for manufacturing and services has rebounded, but future sustainability needs monitoring [3]. - The government has set clear economic growth and inflation targets, with a focus on flexible policies to support consumption and innovation [3]. High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are recovering, while prices for various commodities show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and non-ferrous metals generally rising [3].