100美元 701.2人民币 100欧元 814.23人民币 100日元 4.3958人民币 100港元 89.884人民币 100英镑 938.5人民币 100澳元 467.12人民币 100新西兰元 400.86人民币 100新加坡元 542.61人民币 100瑞士法郎 872.81人民币 100加元 503.28人民币 100人民币114.54澳门元 100人民币57.956马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1128.9俄罗斯卢布 100人民币234.36南非兰特 100人民币21130韩元 100人民币52.558阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币53.658沙特里亚尔 100人民币4744.1匈牙利福林 100人民币51.742波兰兹罗提 100人民币91.82丹麦克朗 100人民币131.93瑞典克朗 100人民币144.33挪威克朗 100人民币617.381土耳其里拉 100人民币254.77墨西哥比索 100人民币451.3泰铢 新华社北京1月14日电 中国外汇交易中心1月14日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the recent depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the exchange rate set at 7.0120 yuan per dollar, reflecting a decrease of 17 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Information - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to announce the interbank foreign exchange market's central parity rate for the yuan against various currencies [2]. - As of January 14, 2026, the exchange rates are as follows: 1 USD = 7.0120 CNY, 1 EUR = 8.1423 CNY, 100 JPY = 4.3958 CNY, and 1 GBP = 9.3850 CNY [2]. - The yuan's exchange rate against other currencies includes: 1 AUD = 4.6712 CNY, 1 NZD = 4.0086 CNY, and 1 CAD = 5.0328 CNY [2].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）北京时间03:00收报6.9795元，较周一夜盘收盘跌62点。成交 量403.81亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expert predictions are based on probabilities rather than certainties, and the market often misinterprets these insights as definitive forecasts [1][4] - The analysis of the potential for a market peak in the second half of the year is linked to four key factors: Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic industrial product prices (PPI), RMB exchange rate, and capital flows [1][6] - The current market environment presents both opportunities and risks, with external favorable conditions and internal recovery providing a window for investment, while uncertainties and inflation pressures pose potential threats [3][7] Group 2 - Historical context shows that market cycles are influenced by various factors, and the prediction of a peak in the second half of the year is based on the convergence of macroeconomic indicators [6][9] - The importance of a stable policy environment is highlighted, as it is crucial for market predictability and coherent reform paths, which can support investor confidence [7][9] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamentals and valuations rather than being swayed by short-term market trends, emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies [3][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy may still be in a difficult exploration to break deflation in 2026, with weak domestic demand and low prices persisting [1][59][78] - The recent improvements in CPI and PPI are not sustainable and are characterized by a lack of strong domestic demand support, indicating that they do not signal a genuine break from deflation [1][58][77] - The RMB is expected to reach around 6.85 to 6.8 against the USD in the first quarter of 2026, but this is influenced by seasonal factors and may not indicate a long-term trend [1][56][67] Group 2 - The Hong Kong real estate market has seen a rise in both volume and price, which may provide a reference for mainland China's real estate policies [1][60][80] - In 2025, Hong Kong's housing volume increased by 18%, and prices are expected to rise by 10% in 2026, along with an increase in rental levels [1][81][82] - The easing of policies and declining mortgage rates in Hong Kong have significantly improved housing demand, which could serve as a model for mainland China to stabilize its real estate market [1][25][30] Group 3 - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $14 billion in 2025, reversing the outflow trend of 2024, and there is confidence in maintaining net inflows in 2026 [1][63][102] - The anticipated two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have been postponed to June and September, but the market's reaction is expected to be moderate [1][62][96] - The overall sentiment in the capital market remains cautiously optimistic, despite some weaknesses in corporate earnings [1][54][101]

新华社北京1月13日电 中国外汇交易中心1月13日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里 亚尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 1月13日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 701.03人民币 100欧元 814.63人民币 100日元 4.4222人民币 100港元 89.914人民币 100英镑 940.38人民币 100澳元 468.27人民币 100新西兰元 402.6人民币 100新加坡元 543.68人民币 100瑞士法郎 875.82人民币 100加元 503.08人民币 100人民币 114.6澳门元 100人民币 58.036马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1123.81俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 4748.46匈牙利福林 100人民币 51.68波兰兹罗提 100人民币 91.74丹麦克朗 100人民币 131.27瑞典克朗 100人民币 144.2挪威克朗 100人民币 617.796土耳其里拉 100人民币 256.39墨西哥比索 100人民币 2 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月13日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.0103元，1欧元对人民币8.1463元，100日元对人民币4.4222元，1港元对人民币0.89914 元，1英镑对人民币9.4038元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6827元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0260元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4368元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7582元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0308元，人民币1元对1.1460 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58036马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.2381俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3446南 非兰特，人民币1元对210.48韩元，人民币1元对0.52613阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53715沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.4846匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51680波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9174丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3127瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4420挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.17796土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5639墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4752泰铢。 (责任编辑：关婧) 中国经济网北京1月13日讯 来 ...

2026 年 01 月 12 日 12:49 大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：开门红之后 260112_原文 发言人 00:04 54321。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到每周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。我周末也在上海待了 半天左右，陆家嘴突然降温，但好像参加了一些研讨，大家的心头是比较热火的，为什么呢？因为开年 同脸周的开门红，还是给 26 年的市场奠定了一个积极的色彩基调。 发言人 00:35 这里面我们观察到全球地缘政治的格局出现了东稳西荡的局面，人民币汇率突破走强，A 股港股的活跃 度在回升。CPI、PPI 这些反应通缩的指标，最近回弹了一些，包括楼市的一个先行指标。香港的楼市 量价齐升，所以开门红是比较热闹的。当然我想热闹背后大家还是关注能不能持续下去，那就是今年的 核心命题，打破通书，让柴米油盐消费民生更好的恢复可能才能决定这些迹象能否持续。所以今天我们 就基于在 25 年年底收官的策略谈和 26 年第一期提到的三个进行时的核心框架，再结合最新的内外局 势，请来了我们的首席策略师罗 A 我们的经济学家郑宁，我们的反映整个亚太的固定收益和汇率的分析 师 get，还有我们关于香港的房地产市场 ...

从货币属性来看，郑后成认为，在美联储持续降息、美元走弱背景下，黄金与白银均不具备系统性下跌 基础，仍是资产配置中重要的稳定器。 来源：@究竟视频微博 #洪灏称黄金已不再只是避险资产# 【#经济学家称人民币大概率稳步升值#】 黄金与贵金属：从避险资产到"估值锚" 在对贵金属的判断上，洪灏的立场较为乐观。他认为，在全球信用体系重塑背景下，黄金已不再只是传 统意义上的避险资产，而正逐步成为新一轮资产定价体系中的"核心锚"。从长期技术形态与全球流动性 指标来看，黄金仍处于大周期上行阶段，其价格中枢有望显著抬升。 在此基础上，他进一步强调白银及部分有色金属的弹性机会。由于白银在历史尺度上与全球流动性高度 相关，且金银比、金铜比等指标仍处于偏低区间，贵金属内部的结构性行情或尚未充分展开。 人民币资产：汇率与股市的共振逻辑 在人民币资产方面，多位首席经济学家形成了较为一致的判断。郑后成认为，在美联储降息周期与中国 价格水平回升的共同作用下，2026年人民币汇率大概率呈现稳步升值态势，升值节奏可能延续至2027 年。 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟进一步指出，人民币已于2025年进入升值通道，从2026年起，未来数年内可 能形成更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of the RMB exchange rate is stable with a tendency to strengthen, with the USD/RMB remaining below the 7.0 mark. The future trajectory of the RMB is expected to exhibit a pattern of two-way fluctuations due to a combination of internal and external factors, as well as market expectations [1][10]. Group 1: Internal and External Factors - The recent RMB appreciation is driven by multiple factors, including external influences such as the significant depreciation of the USD, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB. The weakening of the USD is attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the dollar's credibility [3][4]. - Internally, positive shifts in China's macroeconomic narrative, proactive measures against external shocks, stable economic growth of around 5%, and progress in US-China trade negotiations have collectively rebuilt market confidence in Chinese assets, providing support for the exchange rate [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - China's external demand has shown unexpected resilience, with exports increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months, contributing to a growing trade surplus that supports liquidity in the foreign exchange market. Additionally, year-end corporate foreign exchange settlement demands have further bolstered RMB appreciation [3][5]. - The attractiveness of Chinese assets has improved, with the A-share market performing well, as evidenced by a 16.5% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index for the year, shifting market expectations from a "weak RMB" to a "stable and rising RMB" [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2026, domestic monetary policy is expected to remain "appropriately loose," with predictions of two interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points each, which is an increase from the 10 basis points cut in 2025. This is anticipated to have a limited impact on the RMB exchange rate [7][8]. - The central bank's focus on preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate is expected to maintain the RMB's stable foundation, with a moderate appreciation trend likely to continue. The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is also expected to support RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 4: Future Exchange Rate Projections - The RMB exchange rate is projected to exhibit a two-way fluctuation pattern in 2026, with short-term movements influenced by domestic economic recovery, progress in trade negotiations, and USD interest rate paths. Long-term trends will fundamentally depend on the progress of domestic reforms [10][11]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around a central range of 7.0 to 7.2, with potential depreciation pressure, but supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations, which could lead to GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.0% in 2026 [10][11].