整理记录：郭怡萍 晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 183 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 9 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1.1 银行（郭怡萍） 三季度货币政策例会召开，强调政策执行与效应释放 中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开 2025 年第三季度例会。 投资建议 货币政策强调执行落实，预计银行资产端利率压力缓解，随着存款成本下行与息差降幅 收窄，银行业绩增长有望保持相对稳健。银行股经历市场调整后，股息率已经明显回升， 高股息将吸引配置型资金流入，看好银行股绝对收益投资价值。建议关注国有大行稳健高 股息配置价值，以及经济改善预期下股份行和区域行估值修复机会，推荐中信银行、江苏 银行、成都银行、沪农商行、渝农商行、常熟银行、苏州银行等。维持行业"增持"评级。 风险提示 经济增长不及预期，信贷需求弱修复；信贷资产风险扩大；政策利率下降 ...

央视网消息：为促进金融更好服务实体经济、推动扩大有效投资，国家发展改革委会同有关方面积极设 立新型政策性金融工具。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金，重点支持科 技创新、促进消费、稳定外贸等，促进经济平稳健康发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the proactive implementation of macroeconomic policies under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, resulting in a stable economic performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting strong vitality and resilience [1] Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [1][5] - In May, the reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, while maintaining ample liquidity through open market operations and other tools [1][3] Financing Costs and Credit Structure - The PBOC has worked to reduce overall financing costs, lowering policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points and structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which has led to a decrease in both corporate and personal housing loan rates [2][3] - A total of 500 billion yuan was allocated for consumption and pension refinancing, along with an additional 300 billion yuan for technological innovation and transformation loans, aimed at boosting consumption and innovation [2] Risk Management and Stability - The report emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and resolution, with a focus on monitoring and assessing financial risks, ensuring that the monetary policy's counter-cyclical adjustments are effective [3][4] - By the end of June, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [3] External Environment and Strategic Focus - The external environment is described as increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers, yet China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with a focus on maintaining strategic determination and advancing modernization goals [4] - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while striving to meet annual economic and social development targets [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the bond market, expecting a continued decline in bond yields in the second quarter of 2025 due to accelerated fiscal and monetary policies [14][16]. Core Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasizes the acceleration of fiscal policy implementation, with a notable increase in the issuance of government bonds and special bonds in 2025, aiming to mitigate risks in key areas and address local government debts [1][3]. - Monetary policy is expected to adapt by potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio and introducing innovative structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and stabilize foreign trade [5][10]. - The real estate policy focuses on urban renewal and the transformation of urban villages, with plans to expand the scale of these projects and improve the supply of high-quality housing [7][23]. - The impact of new U.S. tariff policies on Chinese exports is acknowledged, but the report highlights that Chinese listed companies primarily rely on domestic demand, which mitigates the overall impact [12][13]. - The report suggests that the second quarter of 2025 may present a favorable trading window in the bond market, driven by monetary policy easing and increased fiscal support [16]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The meeting highlighted a clear acceleration in fiscal policy, with government bond issuance progress at 25.6% and special bonds at 25.8% as of April 25, 2025, compared to 8.6% and 18.0% in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The focus is on utilizing existing policies more effectively, with expectations for increased bond issuance in May and June to support economic stability [4][10]. Monetary Policy - The report discusses the potential for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and the introduction of new financial tools to support consumption and innovation [5][21]. - The stability of the RMB exchange rate is noted, providing room for interest rate cuts [5][18]. Real Estate Sector - The political bureau plans to enhance urban renewal projects and optimize policies for the acquisition of existing housing, with a target of increasing the supply of high-quality housing [7][23]. - The report indicates that the overall housing market is expected to stabilize, with a gradual recovery in transaction volumes and prices over the next 1-3 years [26]. Consumer and Technology Sectors - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting domestic consumption and technological innovation, particularly in the context of external pressures from tariffs [32][33]. - The Chinese home appliance industry is highlighted for its global competitive advantages, with a focus on enhancing overseas production capacity [38]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods and telecommunications, as well as long-term investments in technology and domestic substitution concepts [15][31]. - Specific investment opportunities include cement companies and consumer building materials, which are expected to benefit from urban renewal and consumption stimulus policies [31].

Economic Performance Overview - 31 provinces have released their economic "report cards" for the first half of the year, with Guangdong and Jiangsu leading the "6 trillion yuan club" [1][2] - Guangdong achieved a GDP of 6.87 trillion yuan, while Jiangsu followed closely with 6.7 trillion yuan; Shandong exceeded 5 trillion yuan [4] - 20 provinces reported GDP growth rates above the national level of 5.3% [7] Growth Dynamics - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed rapid growth, with value-added increasing by 5.9% and 6.0% respectively, accounting for 55.4% and 33.0% of industrial value-added [11] - Emerging industries are developing well, indicating a trend towards structural adjustment and high-quality development [11][17] Regional Economic Trends - The central and western provinces have emerged as new engines of national economic growth, benefiting from industrial upgrades and major project constructions [14][17] - The economic reports highlight a clear regional economic differentiation, with central and western regions performing notably well [17] Future Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on three key areas for the second half of the year: expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade [20] - Various regions are implementing measures to boost consumption, such as cultural and sports events that drive revenue growth [23] Trade and Market Diversification - Industry experts emphasize the need to stabilize the foreign trade base and support enterprises in exploring diversified international markets [25]

Group 1: Economic Work Deployment - 31 provinces and regions are focusing on expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade as key priorities for the second half of the year [1][2] - The deployment reflects the urgency of local governments to stabilize growth and the need for innovative policy execution to activate endogenous economic momentum [1][3] - Short-term measures like issuing consumption vouchers may boost data but lack long-term effectiveness without a sustainable mechanism [1][2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment in super long-term special government bonds and urban renewal projects is emphasized, but there is a warning against "investing for the sake of investment" [1][2] - Effective investment should focus on practical areas such as upgrading old residential communities and county-level cold chain logistics, which can drive employment and enhance economic resilience [1][2] Group 3: New Productive Forces - The term "new productive forces" is frequently mentioned, with many regions pursuing artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy sectors [2] - Caution is advised against blind imitation, as some regions lack the foundational research capabilities to support ambitious projects like chip industrial parks, leading to underutilization [2] - The core of new productive forces lies in technological innovation and industrial collaboration, with a recommendation for regions to develop based on their unique endowments [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade Challenges - In the context of increasing global trade friction, regions are urged to stabilize orders and expand markets, as traditional low-cost competition is becoming unsustainable [2][3] - The key to foreign trade transformation is enhancing product added value rather than relying solely on subsidies or overseas warehouse construction [2][3] Group 5: Market Expansion Opportunities - Initiatives like the "Belt and Road" and China-Europe Railway Express present market expansion opportunities, but participation from small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises remains low due to information gaps and risk concerns [3] - Local governments are encouraged to create service platforms to provide market analysis and legal consulting, thereby lowering the barriers for enterprises to "go global" [3] - Encouraging the integration of foreign and domestic trade can help adapt export-to-domestic sales enterprises to local standards, forming a "dual circulation" support system [3]

Group 1 - The recent economic work deployment by 31 provinces emphasizes expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade as the three main focuses [1][2] - Local governments are implementing measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and promoting project construction to boost consumption and investment, but these short-term measures may not address the underlying issues of consumer confidence and spending [1][2] - Effective investment should focus on practical areas that enhance people's livelihoods and industrial upgrades, rather than large-scale projects that may lead to resource waste [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of developing new productive forces is gaining traction, with many regions focusing on emerging industries like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy, but there is a risk of redundant construction and resource misallocation [2][3] - There is a need for a shift in policy focus towards supporting research and development and talent cultivation, rather than just equipment procurement [2][3] - The transformation of foreign trade is crucial, as traditional low-cost competition is becoming unsustainable; enhancing product value is key to overcoming challenges from Southeast Asia and market barriers in Europe and the U.S. [2][3] Group 3 - Initiatives like the Belt and Road and China-Europe Railway Express present opportunities for market expansion, but participation from small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises remains low due to information gaps and risk concerns [3] - Local governments are encouraged to create service platforms to facilitate market entry for businesses and promote the integration of foreign and domestic trade [3] - The effectiveness of the economic deployment will depend on precise execution and local adaptation to find breakthrough points in consumption, investment, industry, and foreign trade [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need for sustained and timely macroeconomic policy support, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve the efficiency of fund usage [1] - There is a commitment to ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, which likely refers to ensuring basic living standards, employment, and education [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain ample liquidity to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society [1] - The use of various structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] Group 3: Economic Strategy - The meeting highlights the importance of major economic provinces playing a significant role in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call for strengthening the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation to ensure effective implementation [1]

Group 1: Historical Policy Financial Instruments - Historical policy financial instruments were introduced during counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy and enhance local investment capabilities, characterized by their ability to leverage social funds into long-term infrastructure investments, low costs, and rapid deployment [1][7][8] - The Special Construction Bonds, created in 2015 to address domestic economic downturn pressures, helped alleviate local expenditure pressures and meet funding needs for key projects, becoming a crucial tool for stabilizing growth in infrastructure [9][15] - In 2022, the Policy Development Financial Instruments were launched to actively expand effective investment, with a rapid implementation timeline that allowed for quick project initiation and support for infrastructure investment growth [21][27] Group 2: New Policy Financial Instruments - The new policy financial instruments are expected to focus on technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with a market-oriented mechanism to address fiscal shortfalls and support key project capital needs [31][36] - Recent meetings in various regions indicate a proactive approach to deploying these new financial tools, with local governments emphasizing the importance of leveraging these instruments to stimulate effective investment [33][35] - The operational model for the new instruments will likely continue to involve policy banks leading the initiatives, with the central bank providing funding support through structural monetary policy tools [36]