金十数据5月29日讯，周三，美国总统特朗普对是否就乌克兰冲突制裁俄罗斯表达了犹豫，他说，他不 希望制裁影响停火。特朗普在白宫说："如果我认为我即将达成协议，我不想这样做，以免搞砸这件事 情。"特朗普还表示，俄罗斯总统普京可能有意拖延乌克兰战争停火谈判，并对俄罗斯最近的轰炸表示 失望。特朗普说："我们要弄清楚他是否在利用我们，如果是的话，我们的反应会有所不同。" 特朗普对制裁俄罗斯感到犹豫 ...

俄乌最新消息！ 佩斯科夫表示，俄乌双方分别起草的有关解决冲突的备忘录内容将很快揭晓，届时才会谈及俄乌谈判的 下一阶段。目前尚未就俄乌下一轮谈判的地点做出任何决定，但谈判地点对双方而言都应该是便利的。 佩斯科夫表示，俄乌双方谈判团队正在制定有关临时停火条件的清单。 俄外长：俄乌新一轮谈判安排将于近期公布 俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫在5月28日的第十三届安全事务高级代表国际会议开幕式上表示，俄方再次感 谢特朗普、土耳其总统埃尔多安，帮助俄乌重启直接谈判。俄方将继续与乌开展和平谈判。俄乌新一轮 谈判安排将于近期公布。 当地时间5月16日下午，在土耳其方面主持下，俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行关于和 平解决乌克兰危机的会谈。这也是俄乌双方自2022年3月以来、时隔3年多时间的首次直接对话。会谈达 成协议，各自交换1000名战俘，这是自俄乌冲突爆发以来最大规模的战俘交换。5月23日，换俘工作第 一阶段启动，25日完成千人换俘。 佩斯科夫：俄乌冲突调解备忘录将"很快揭晓" 当地时间5月28日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在例行媒体会上表示，就普京与泽连斯基的直接会晤 或俄乌美三方领导人会面问题，俄方的原则性立场没有 ...

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia will submit a memorandum regarding its views on a ceasefire and the conditions for a leaders' meeting [1] - Zelensky expressed willingness to meet with Russian President Putin for bilateral talks or a trilateral meeting with US President Trump to discuss immediate ceasefire [1] - Ukraine is in discussions with the US and EU regarding new sanctions against Russia, with details of the 18th round of sanctions already discussed with the EU [1] Group 2 - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov reiterated that the Russian position on a direct meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky remains unchanged, emphasizing that any meeting should be based on specific agreements reached by the Russian and Ukrainian delegations [2] - Peskov indicated that the content of the memorandums drafted by both sides regarding conflict resolution will be revealed soon, which will lead to discussions on the next phase of negotiations [2] - Reports suggest that Russia's conditions for halting the conflict include a written guarantee from NATO not to expand eastward and to exclude Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other former Soviet states from NATO membership [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of new sanctions against Russia by President Trump in the coming days could significantly impact U.S.-Russia relations and various sectors affected by these sanctions [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering new sanctions against Russia, indicating a shift in foreign policy [1] - The timing of these sanctions suggests an urgent response to recent geopolitical events involving Russia [1] - The sanctions may target specific industries or individuals, which could lead to market volatility [1]

Group 1 - Mitsui O.S.K. Lines is seeking assistance from the Japanese government after the EU unexpectedly sanctioned three of its LNG carriers involved in Russian projects [1] - The three vessels, "North Moon," "North Light," and "North Ocean," were included in the EU's latest sanctions list as part of efforts to promote peace between Russia and Ukraine [1] - The CEO expressed dissatisfaction with the sanctions, noting that the vessels had recently transported cargo from the Yamal LNG project, which was previously considered unsanctioned [1] Group 2 - The company experienced a surge in demand for transporting various goods, including automobiles, prior to the tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, followed by a decline in April, but demand has been strong since May due to easing trade tensions [1] - The CEO anticipates continued strong demand in May and June, but expects a gradual decline in Japan's automotive exports to North America in the medium to long term, suggesting a shift towards local production in the U.S. [2] - The company recognizes the need to change its business distribution model away from being Japan-centric [2]

法国总统马克龙：希望特朗普对普京的愤怒能够促使其采取新的制裁措施，从而遏制普京的行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran's President asserts that the country will continue to survive even in the face of harsher sanctions and without dialogue with the United States [1] Group 1 - Iran remains committed to its survival strategy despite potential increased sanctions [1] - The Iranian government is not seeking dialogue with the United States, indicating a firm stance on its policies [1]

Core Points - The fifth round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. has concluded with limited progress, according to Omani mediators [1] - Iran's Foreign Minister described the talks as the most professional to date, indicating a reasonable path forward despite no agreement reached [1] - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about potential positive outcomes from the negotiations [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The fifth round of talks in Rome resulted in some progress, but no definitive conclusions were reached [1] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the discussions were professional and indicated a reasonable path forward [1] - The next round of talks will be scheduled based on the proposals and solutions reviewed [1] Group 2: Uranium Enrichment Issues - Iran has increased its uranium enrichment level to approximately 60%, which exceeds civilian needs but is below the 90% required for weaponization [2] - The U.S. insists on no uranium enrichment, which Iran's Supreme Leader has deemed excessive and unreasonable [2] - The U.S. Secretary of State acknowledged the difficulty in reaching an agreement that allows Iran to maintain a civilian nuclear program without uranium enrichment [2] Group 3: Sanctions and Military Threats - The U.S. announced new sanctions on Iran's construction sector, which Iran's Foreign Minister criticized as malicious and illegal [3] - The U.S. aims to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities, which could lead to a regional arms race, while Iran maintains its nuclear ambitions are purely civilian [3][4] - Trump has threatened military action if negotiations fail, with Israel opposing any agreement that allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons [5] Group 4: Regional Tensions - Iran has promised to retaliate against any attacks and has significantly increased its uranium enrichment beyond the limits set in the 2015 agreement [4] - The threat of Israeli military action is viewed as a means to pressure Iran into negotiations, although experts believe such threats are not credible [6] - The potential for a broader conflict is a concern for the U.S., which does not wish to be drawn into a prolonged war in the region [6]

电话.1 LJY0 / / 70 香港恒生指数 35% 65% 标普500指数 20% 80% 纳斯达克指数 74% 26% 道琼斯指数 49% 51% 日经225指数 70% 30% 德国DAX40指 42% 58% 数 外汇 T 多头 |空头 欧元/美元 20% 80% 欧元/英镑 84% 16% 欧元/日元 27% 73% 欧元/澳元 63% 37% 英镑/美元 82% 18% 英镑/日元 60% 40% 美元/日元 52% 48% 美元/加元 18% 82% 美元/瑞郎 11% 89% 澳元/美元 49% 51% 澳元/日元 37% 63% 加元/日元 78% 22% 纽元/美元 47% 53% 纽元/日元 36% 64% 美元/离岸人 25% 75% 民币 特朗普反复无常，在欧盟"服软"下愿意恢复关税谈判期，现货黄金周一闻声跳空低开，当前多空争夺胶着；俄乌局势再度不明 朗，特朗普公开谴责普京，欧盟酝酿对俄新制裁，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分 钟更新1次） 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 ...