Core Viewpoint - Kingsoft Software's AH shares experienced significant gains on October 13, with Hong Kong shares rising nearly 13% and A-shares increasing over 11% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Software's Hong Kong stock rose nearly 13%, previously peaking at over 15% [1]. - A-shares of Kingsoft Office increased over 11%, with a prior increase exceeding 16% [1]. Group 2: Market Data - As of October 13, the stock price of Kingsoft was 36.260, with a market capitalization of 508 billion [2]. - The trading volume was 22.2 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4 [2].

花旗研究报告指出，国家商务部及海关总署周四公布，扩大对稀土产品及技术的出口管制。花旗认为， 该政策透过更强国内市场保护，有利于持有配额的龙头企业。花旗续表示，金力永磁(06680.HK)昨日公 布其首九个月初步业绩，净利润为5.05亿至5.5亿元人民币，按年上涨157%至179%，占花旗对其全年估 计71%至77%以及市场共识73%至79%。花旗予该股维持"买入"评级，目标价25.3港元。 ...

10月10日，北方稀土、包钢股份两大稀土巨头宣布提价。此次上调后，2025年第四季度稀土精矿交易价 格相较于第三季度价格环比上涨约37%，创下自2023年第二季度以来的最高值。 中金公司指出，中国在稀土领域拥有领先地位，2024年开采份额占全球的61%，但更为重要的是90%以 上的精炼环节都集中在中国。稀土管制作为"先手"在4月就已经出现在"谈判桌"上，然而10月9日的一系 列举措更为严厉，不仅将在11月8日对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、5种中重稀土、锂电池和人造 石墨负极材料实施出口管制，同时也将即日起对境外稀土出口和稀土技术实施管制。 新规要求跨国公司销售的商品中，如果含有中国稀土矿产占产品价值的0.1%或以上，则需要获得中国 政府的许可，这将使得跨国科技公司的关键产业链面临挑战。值得关注的是，商务部新闻发言人表示， 中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，只要是用于民用用途的、合规的出口申请，都可以获得批准，相关企业 无须担心。 东方财富指出，中国对稀土产业全方位管控后，全球稀土供给增长预期或下调，利好国内稀土产业高质 量发展。稀土永磁材料与人形机器人等产业密切相关，板块未来或受益于新兴产业的需求预期增长。 盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies and items to safeguard national security and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations [1][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce has issued announcements regarding the export control of rare earth technologies, including mining, smelting, metal refining, and recycling technologies, which require permission for export [1][3]. - The export control is a response to the illegal acquisition of rare earth technologies by foreign entities, which poses significant risks to China's national security and international stability [3]. Group 2: International Cooperation and Compliance - China emphasizes its commitment to maintaining global peace and regional stability through responsible export control measures and is open to dialogue with other countries to promote compliant trade [2]. - The scope of the controlled items is limited, and various facilitation measures will be implemented, including exemptions for humanitarian aid and a reasonable transition period for existing commercial contracts [2].

杰富瑞：即使中国收紧稀土出口管制，导致紧张局势升级，中美贸易协议仍有可能达成。最新的限制措施可能旨在增强中国在与华盛顿的贸易谈判中的筹码。如果两国关系进一步升级，中国将占据上风。“中国由于其社会主义制度，能够比美国承受更多痛苦，并且持续更长时间”。“特朗普是一位交易撮合者，而非理想主义者，这意味着他愿意接受妥协，（尤其是在）痛苦过大或成本/收益不利于他的情况下。” ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On October 12, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 26,302, 14,217, 14,916, and 19,721 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IM increased by 1,506, 2,170, and 3,851 lots respectively, while the total positions of IC decreased by 8,282 lots [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2510, IF2511, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4,613.8, 4,600.4, 4,592.2, and 4,571.8 respectively, with declines of 2.08%, 2.19%, 2.18%, and 2.16%. The trading volumes were 43,832, 5,422, 96,227, and 16,669 lots respectively, with increases of 3,683, 734, 17,523, and 4,362 lots. The positions were 51,030, 9,132, 162,971, and 55,448 lots respectively, with changes of -3,181, +1,427, -329, and +3,589 lots [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2510, IH2511, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2,976, 2,973.6, 2,975.8, and 2,974 respectively, with declines of 1.55%, 1.61%, 1.60%, and 1.65%. The trading volumes were 20,378, 3,053, 43,708, and 6,794 lots respectively, with increases of 3,496, 1,276, 7,696, and 1,749 lots. The positions were 21,085, 3,090, 67,688, and 13,880 lots respectively, with changes of +13, +793, +840, and +524 lots [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2510, IC2511, IC2512, and IC2603 were 7,382, 7,311.2, 7,266, and 7,100.6 respectively, with declines of 1.98%, 2.15%, 2.24%, and 2.36%. The trading volumes were 39,765, 10,064, 99,771, and 20,790 lots respectively, with increases of 1,945, 861, 10,965, and 1,145 lots. The positions were 50,530, 18,841, 140,200, and 50,503 lots respectively, with changes of -6,184, +3,029, -3,614, and -1,513 lots [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2510, IM2511, IM2512, and IM2603 were 7,514.2, 7,421.8, 7,340.4, and 7,120 respectively, with declines of 1.37%, 1.56%, 1.71%, and 1.78%. The trading volumes were 53,416, 15,411, 140,881, and 23,742 lots respectively, with changes of +5,073, +5,979, +9,445, and -776 lots. The positions were 70,956, 22,199, 183,267, and 80,505 lots respectively, with changes of -2,937, +6,387, +1,106, and -498 lots [1]. 2. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2510, long positions decreased by 1,609 lots and short positions decreased by 2,104 lots. For IF2511, the net change in long positions was +920 lots and the net change in short positions was -1,346 lots. For IF2512, long positions decreased by 275 lots and short positions decreased by 2,363 lots. For IF2603, long positions increased by 2,804 lots and short positions increased by 3,121 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2510, long positions increased by 1,058 lots and short positions increased by 68 lots. For IH2512, the net change in long positions was +806 lots and the net change in short positions was +1,227 lots [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2510, long positions decreased by 4,223 lots and short positions decreased by 5,437 lots. For IC2511, long positions increased by 2,334 lots and short positions increased by 2,608 lots. For IC2512, the net change in long positions was -4,290 lots and the net change in short positions was -8,424 lots. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 996 lots and short positions decreased by 1,266 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2510, long positions decreased by 1,446 lots and short positions decreased by 2,579 lots. For IM2511, the net change in long positions was +4,551 lots and the net change in short positions was +2,509 lots [5]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 4. Important Drivers - US stock futures opened higher by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 index futures rising 1.1% and the Nasdaq futures rising 1.4%. Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and market concerns about trade issues eased [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on China's rare - earth exports. China is not afraid of a tariff war and urges the US to correct its wrong actions [6]. 5. Market Performance - Affected by factors such as the intensification of the trade war and the continuous US government shutdown, US and European stock markets closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 2%, the S&P 500 index fell more than 2.5%, the Nasdaq fell more than 3.5%, and the German DAX index and the French CAC40 index fell about 1.5%. Crude oil and copper prices dropped, while the US dollar index fell more than 0.5%. US Treasury bonds and gold prices rose [7]. - The A - share market opened low and closed low. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3,897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.7%, the ChiNext Index fell 4.55%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 1.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 5.61%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.64%, the Wind A500 Index fell 2.08%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 2.29%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 2.53 trillion yuan, compared with 2.67 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

10月9日，商务部发布2025年第61号公告。对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制。除 管制规则外，附件采用WPS格式，要求相关申请文件须以中文提交两大细节引发热议。据悉，WPS是 由金山办公自主研发的办公软件。 金山软件早盘高开逾9%，截至发稿，股价上涨9.09%，现报35.04港元，成交额5.02亿港元。 金山办公2024年财报显示，WPS Office全球月度活跃设备数（MAD）已超6.32亿，创历史新高，同比增 长6.22%。其中，WPS Office PC版国内日活跃设备数突破1亿。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships of different commodities. Sino - US trade issues, especially Trump's tariff threats and China's rare - earth export control, have significantly impacted the global financial market, including stocks and futures [6][14][16]. - For different commodities, their prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the agricultural products market, new product supply and demand consumption situations affect prices; in the energy - chemical market, production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play key roles; in the industrial metals market, factors like inventory changes, production capacity, and trade policies are crucial [9][11][13]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is expected to be affected by short - term external shocks but will be supported by domestic policies in the medium - term. The market's core contradiction lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. China firmly opposes the US's tariff threats and will take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [6]. - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [6]. - Issues such as the Dutch government's intervention in Anshi Semiconductor, Binance's technical glitches during cryptocurrency price drops, the rise of international gold prices, and Australia's plan for a key - minerals agreement have attracted market attention [6][7]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 10, the peanut futures closed at 7786 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. With sufficient supply and weak demand, short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at the 7850 - 7950 pressure area [9]. - Sugar: On October 10, the sugar futures closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. With increasing supply from Brazil and the new northern hemisphere harvest season, and some domestic factors, it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton range [9]. - Corn: On October 10, the corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. With new grain coming onto the market and weak demand, the price is expected to decline, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs continued to decline, and the market is under pressure due to concentrated supply and weak consumption after the holiday [9]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is stable, but with slow inventory digestion and weak demand, short - selling futures and month - spread reverse arbitrage are recommended [9][11]. - Cotton: On October 10, the cotton futures closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. With increasing supply and weak demand, it is expected to maintain bottom - range trading [11]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea spot price is weakly stable. With sufficient supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price in Shandong is stable, but the futures contract is under pressure due to inventory increases during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level [11]. - Coking Coal: Supply is generally stable, but downstream procurement is cautious. The double - coking futures are under short - term pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Due to Sino - US trade frictions and other factors, the prices of copper and aluminum fell on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Alumina: The supply is in surplus, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand is average after the holiday, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13]. - Ferroalloys: The overall black - series rebounded after the holiday, but the double - silicon trend is weak. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro and Sino - US tariff issues [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support area of 70000 - 72000 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On October 10, the three major A - share indexes declined. The market is affected by Sino - US trade issues and other factors. For trend investors, they can consider buying bullish call spreads when the market drops significantly; volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles after the volatility drops [14]. - Stock Indexes: The short - term volatility of the A - share market has increased. The market is expected to open lower on Monday, and the technology sector will be under pressure. In the long - term, the core contradiction of the A - share market lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [14][15][16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths and Tourism in China Key Highlights 1. **Rare Earths Export Controls**: - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of China tightened export controls on rare earths, requiring an export license for items containing 0.1% or more of Chinese rare earths value. This includes processing and refining technologies and auxiliary materials. - Strict enforcement could disrupt global manufacturing supply chains. - President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response, indicating escalating trade tensions. - MOFCOM stated that the new policy was a reaction to US restrictions, not a proactive measure, suggesting a strategic move for negotiation leverage ahead of APEC talks [1][1][1]. 2. **Tourism and Consumer Spending**: - During the National Day Golden Week (October 1-8), domestic inter-regional passenger trips rose by 6.2% year-over-year, but retail sales from key retailers and catering companies only increased by 2.7% year-over-year. - Domestic tourism revenue per head was 2.6% below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing weakness in consumption momentum in China. - Historical data suggests that changing household savings behavior is challenging, with income growth being the primary driver of consumption [1][1][1]. 3. **Economic Data Forecast**: - Upcoming data for September is expected to show robust growth in imports and exports, with forecasts of 8.0% year-over-year growth in exports and 4.0% in imports, which are above consensus estimates. - CPI inflation is anticipated to remain muted at -0.2% year-over-year, while PPI inflation is expected to improve from -2.8% to -2.3% year-over-year due to a favorable base effect. - New net bank loans and total social financing (TSF) for September are likely to be below last year's figures, reflecting sluggish private demand and a lack of urgency from the government to increase public spending [1][1][1]. Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: The persistent weakness in consumption suggests that income growth remains crucial for driving consumer spending in China, rather than changes in savings behavior [1][1][1]. - **Trade Relations**: The recent developments in trade relations between the US and China highlight the potential for further negotiations and the impact of tariffs on both economies [1][1][1].

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