2025 年 10 月 9 日 金融工程 市场网下打新参与度仍在上升 ——打新市场跟踪月报 20251009 要点 新股发行概况： 新股发行规模环比增长。2025 年 9 月，共 11 只新股上市，主板 3 只、创业板 5 只、科创板 0 只、北交所 3 只，募集金额共计 116.89 亿元，环比 +185.58%。 其中，参与网下发行的个股共计 8 只，主板 3 只、创业板 5 只，募集金额合计 106.28 亿元，环比+314.65%。 2025 年以来，共 76 只新股上市，主板 25 只、创业板 29 只、科创板 7 只、北 交所 15 只，募集金额共计 760.25 亿元。参与网下发行的个股共计 55 只，主 板 24 只、创业板 24 只、科创板 7 只，募集金额合计 677.32 亿元。 询价账户数量稳步上升。2025 年 9 月，主板采用网下打新的新股 3 只，上市首 日平均涨幅为 131.33%，环比-9.35pct，初步询价配售对象为 9194 家，报价 入围率为 95.18%，环比-1.94pct；网下中签率分别为 A 类：0.11‰、C 类： 0.11‰。 双创板块（本文统计范围为创业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is currently exhibiting characteristics of profit and valuation resonance, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity in the A-share market [1]. Valuation Summary - The rare earth industry chain in China demonstrates strategic value amid international trade conflicts, with domestic rare earth prices expected to rise, anchored by the U.S. Department of Defense's announced purchase price of $110/kg for praseodymium and neodymium oxide [1]. - Current domestic prices range from 500,000 to 600,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant potential for price appreciation [1]. Profitability Summary - The second quarter of 2025 saw impressive earnings forecasts from major companies in the rare earth sector: - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71 million RMB [4]. - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 to 176 million RMB, marking a return to profitability [4]. - Shenghe Resources forecasts a net profit turnaround with a growth of 545.1% to 661.9% [4]. - Ningbo Yunsheng expects a net profit increase of 133.6% to 250.3% [4]. - Jieli Permanent Magnet anticipates a net profit increase of 151% to 180% [4]. Industry Growth Potential - The long-term growth logic of the rare earth industry is being validated, with significant demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, industrial motors, industrial robots, and home appliances [1]. - The increasing sophistication and precision of industrial products drive higher demand for rare earth materials [1]. Index and ETF Insights - The CSI Rare Earth Industry Index selects companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with a high concentration of leading firms [7]. - The top ten constituents of the index account for nearly 60% of its weight, with state-owned enterprises dominating the upper segments of the industry [7]. - The E Fund CSI Rare Earth ETF (159715) offers a low fee structure and has outperformed its benchmark index, achieving a cumulative return of 42.40% since the beginning of 2023 [12]. Performance Metrics - The CSI Rare Earth Industry Index has shown strong long-term performance, with a cumulative return of 168% since 2019 and a year-to-date return of 45.57% in 2025 [11]. - The index has a Sharpe ratio of 0.66, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, while consumer electronics stocks showed resilience, and agriculture and gaming stocks were active [1] - Agricultural-related ETFs saw an increase of nearly 3% [1] ETF Performance - The following agricultural ETFs reported significant gains: - Agricultural ETF by E Fund: 2.94% increase [2] - Online Consumption ETF: 2.92% increase [2] - Other agricultural ETFs also showed positive performance, with increases ranging from 2.58% to 2.9% [2] Industry Insights - Analysts recommend focusing on the pig farming industry for both defensive and offensive investment opportunities, noting that most listed companies in this sector are currently at historical low market valuations, indicating substantial upside potential [4] - In contrast, several rare earth and artificial intelligence-related ETFs experienced declines exceeding 3% [4] Future Trends - The demand for high-end magnetic materials is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing policies promoting "carbon neutrality," alongside a recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robots [7] - The technology sector's investment focus is projected to remain on AI, with advancements in large models and exploration by Chinese tech companies leading to broader applications and productivity improvements across various industries, including advertising, gaming, management software, and smart vehicles [7]

Group 1 - The overall performance of ETFs on the 26th showed mixed results, with some gaining while others declined [2] - The leading performer was the agricultural ETF from Yifangda (562900), which increased by 2.94% [2] - The online consumption ETF (159728) and another agricultural ETF (159825) also saw significant gains of 2.92% and 2.90% respectively [2] Group 2 - The worst performer was the CSI A500 Enhanced ETF (561090), which fell by 5.08% [2] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF Index (588920) and the Rare Earth ETF from Yifangda (159715) experienced declines of 4.18% and 3.39% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market on August 26 showed mixed performance, with agricultural ETFs leading gains while others, particularly in technology and rare earth sectors, experienced declines [2] Group 1: ETF Performance - Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) led the gains with an increase of 3.59% [2] - E Fund Agricultural ETF (562900) rose by 3.55% [2] - Agricultural ETF (159825) increased by 3.53% [2] - Zhongzheng A500 Enhanced ETF (561090) was the biggest loser, declining by 5.0% [2] - Sci-Tech Chip ETF Index (588920) fell by 3.32% [2] - Rare Earth ETF E Fund (159715) decreased by 2.96% [2]

Market Overview - On August 25, A-share major indices closed higher with a market turnover of approximately 3.18 trillion yuan, and only 25 out of over 1260 ETFs declined, while more than 180 ETFs saw daily gains exceeding 3% [1] - The top ten performing ETFs were predominantly industry ETFs, particularly those focused on rare earth and non-ferrous sectors, with the leading two ETFs targeting the rare earth industry, both gaining over 7% in a single day [2] Rare Earth Sector Performance - The rare earth sector showed remarkable performance on August 25, with four of the top ten ETFs being rare earth-themed products, and two being non-ferrous themed [2] - The E Fund Rare Earth ETF (159715.SZ) led with a gain of 7.89%, while other rare earth ETFs also exceeded 7% in gains [3] - The E Fund Rare Earth ETF (516780) recorded a trading volume of 544 million yuan, marking its highest single-day trading volume since its listing, and its total assets reached 2.654 billion yuan as of August 22 [2] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly announced a temporary regulation on the total quantity control management of rare earth mining and smelting separation, effective immediately [4] - This regulation is expected to impose substantial constraints on the supply side of rare earth smelting and separation, potentially catalyzing further market activity in the rare earth sector [5] Semiconductor Sector Performance - On August 25, seven out of the ten worst-performing ETFs were semiconductor-themed, following a significant rise of over 5% in the previous trading day [6] - The Kweichow Moutai Chip Design ETF (588780) fell by 1.46%, while the Kweichow Moutai 50 ETF (588940) dropped by 2.79%, marking the largest decline in the market [7] Fund Flows - On August 22, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 11 billion yuan, with several products experiencing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, and the China Securities 500 ETF (510500) leading with a net inflow of 5 billion yuan [9][11] - Conversely, many semiconductor and technology-focused ETFs experienced significant net outflows, with the Kweichow Moutai 50 ETF (588000) seeing a net outflow of nearly 5 billion yuan [10] ETF Market Growth - As of August 22, the number of ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan surpassed 100, collectively accounting for over 70% of the total ETF market size, which exceeds 3.7 trillion yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector in the A-share market has become a standout performer, with significant price increases driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [1][4]. Market Performance - On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, closing up 1.51% at 3883.56 points, with the rare earth sector leading the gains [1]. - The China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 6.46%, closing at 2664.94 points, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Jinli Permanent Magnet and Dadi Bear [1]. ETF Performance - Multiple rare earth ETFs experienced substantial gains, with E Fund Rare Earth ETF leading the market with a 7.89% increase on the same day [2]. - Year-to-date, the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index has increased by 68.31%, and all four rare earth-themed ETFs have reported returns exceeding 58% [3]. Fund Inflows - The rare earth-themed ETFs saw over 1 billion yuan in net inflows in the week leading up to August 25, with E Fund Rare Earth ETF attracting the most at 538 million yuan [3]. Policy Impact - The recent surge in the rare earth sector is attributed to the implementation of the "Interim Measures for Total Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation," which establishes stricter regulations on production [4]. - Analysts suggest that the new policy could enhance export prices and create new opportunities for the rare earth industry, which is crucial for high-tech applications [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - The demand for rare earths in sectors like renewable energy and high-end manufacturing is expected to grow, supporting a positive long-term outlook for the industry [6]. - However, the sector's short-term performance may be volatile due to policy changes and market sentiment, necessitating cautious investment strategies [6].

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on the 25th, with the rare earth ETFs leading the gains [2] - Efund's rare earth ETF (159715) surged by 7.89%, while another rare earth ETF (159713) increased by 7.36% [2] - The Cloud 50 ETF (560660) also saw a notable rise of 7.19% [2] Group 2 - On the downside, the Kweichow Moutai 50 ETF (588940) experienced the largest decline, falling by 2.79% [2] - The CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (561590) and the Xinhua A50 ETF (560820) both dropped by 1.79% [2]

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, closing up 1.51% [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed 30 trillion for the second time in history, reaching 31,411 billion, an increase of 5,944 billion from the previous trading day [1] Sector Highlights - The Rare Earth ETF from E Fund (159715) rose nearly 8%, with several other ETFs in the rare earth sector also showing significant gains, exceeding 7% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other regulatory bodies, released interim measures for the total quantity control of rare earth mining and separation, allowing more companies to obtain rare earth quotas [2] - Global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is projected to reach approximately 119,700 tons and 129,000 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 10.7% and 7.8% [2] ETF Performance - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) had the highest trading volume today, reaching 34.282 billion [5] - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) and the Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF (511990), with volumes of 23.213 billion and 21.739 billion, respectively [5] - The turnover rate for the Korea-China Semiconductor ETF (513310) was the highest at 551% [6] New ETF Launch - The Fuguo Satellite ETF (563230) will begin fundraising tomorrow, tracking the China Satellite Industry Index, which focuses on the entire satellite industry chain [7]

Group 1: Leadership Changes - Two major public fund companies have announced changes in leadership, with Xinda Australia Fund's chairman Zhu Ruimin resigning and Shang Jian taking over, while Huabao Fund's chairman Huang Kongwei also stepped down due to age, with Xia Xuesong assuming the role [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Over 40% of stock ETFs in the A-share market have reached new net asset value highs, with some technology-themed ETFs seeing weekly increases exceeding 21% [2] - The market experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.51% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.26%, leading to a total trading volume of 3.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] Group 3: Institutional Investments - Pension funds have entered the top ten shareholders of 29 companies for the first time in Q2, with 11 stocks seeing new holdings exceeding 100 million yuan, including Satellite Chemical, Shengyi Technology, Hongfa Technology, and Yuyue Medical [3] - Feng Mingyuan has increased holdings in Kexin New Energy, with the latest data showing his funds appearing in the top ten shareholders for the first time, holding 2.21 million shares and 963,400 shares respectively [4] Group 4: ETF Market Trends - The release of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" indicates that the government will regulate rare earth production, which may create investment opportunities in related ETFs [8]