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低利率周期
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今年要有牛市思维
表舅是养基大户· 2025-05-21 07:28
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a bull market mindset, urging investors to abandon bearish thinking and recognize the potential opportunities in the current market environment [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - Ningde Times has significantly influenced market performance, with its stock rising approximately 7% in Hong Kong and around 4% in A-shares, highlighting a valuation discrepancy between the two markets [1]. - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%, largely driven by Ningde Times, which contributed 0.84% to the index's gain, indicating that without this stock, the index would have shown no increase [2]. Group 2: Bull Market Thinking - The article outlines characteristics of bearish thinking, including a belief that the stock market lacks long-term investment value and a tendency to project personal negative experiences onto the broader market [6][7]. - It argues that maintaining a bearish mindset can lead to missed opportunities, particularly in the context of the current favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Key factors supporting a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong market include an unprecedented low interest rate environment, relaxed regulations for insurance capital investments, and a shift in supply dynamics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9][10]. - Insurance capital has shown a trend of increasing equity investments, with the proportion of investments in stocks rising from 6.78% in Q1 2024 to 8.43% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase in capital allocation to equities [15]. Group 4: Sector Highlights - The article notes that gold and related stocks have performed well, with gold prices surpassing 3300 USD, driven by geopolitical tensions [24][25]. - It highlights the competitive advantage of Huaxia's gold ETFs, which have the lowest management fees in the market, potentially attracting more investors [26][29].
我买基金投顾的一周年
表舅是养基大户· 2025-04-26 13:28
今晚加更一篇,聊一下基金投顾的事情,明晚也准备再加更一篇,主要是聊下昨天晚上,金融监管总局发布的,关于允许保险公司调整万能险产 品最低保证利率的重磅通知,兹事体大。 聊基金投顾,是因为 从去年4月开始跟投表韭系列组合以来 ,正好满1年了,做个总结和复盘,对个人投资者朋友而言,可以看下跟投思路,对 同业小伙伴而言,也和大家分享一些肤浅的感悟。 不知道从何聊起,就写成一篇流水账了,一条一条往下聊,聊到哪儿算哪儿。 文章最后,有抽奖环节 ,奖品由主理人平台国联证券提供,大家记得看到最后。 ...... 所以,跟投基金投顾这个事情,于我个人而言,肯定不是1年或2年的事情,假设能活到中国人的平均寿命,那毛估估, 至少投个30-40年,应该 没问题 。 所以,这个周年的回顾,打算每年写一篇,到时候写满30年的时候,就能自费出一本书了,《"基"荡三十年》。 2、组合业绩观察。 投资这件事上,大家最关心的,莫过于业绩——虽然,实际上,从长期收益的角度来看,同"资产配置"、"仓位选择"相比,底层具体标的的表现 差异,其实关系没有想象的那么大。 不过,还是帮大家跟踪一下吧,以下数据,均来自于天天基金app,截至今天。 整体来看, ...
中国平安郭晓涛:低利率周期下的投资密钥
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-07 08:57
Core Insights - The key role of asset allocation in investment returns is emphasized, accounting for 80% of the returns, while the remaining 20% pertains to specific investment targets and asset classes [3][6][7] - China Ping An's investment return rate reached 5.8% in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points, with the life and health insurance business achieving a return rate of 6.0%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [7][10] - The company is undergoing an investment system reform in 2024 to enhance asset-liability linkage and maximize the removal of interest rate spreads, rather than pursuing high-risk returns [3][7] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on matching assets and liabilities, considering five core factors: cost, duration, product, economic cycle, and regulation [6][8] - The company aims to strengthen the integration of products and investments to optimize returns while managing risks effectively [3][7] Life Insurance Reform - Since 2019, China Ping An has been reforming its life insurance sector, achieving a new business value of 285.34 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 28.8% [10][11] - The company is transitioning from a large number of agents to a focus on high-quality agents, with a current agent team size of 36.3 thousand, down from a peak of 130 thousand [11][12] AI and Technology Integration - The emergence of AI applications, particularly through models like DeepSeek, is seen as a transformative force in the insurance industry, enhancing efficiency and decision-making [14][15] - China Ping An has made significant strides in integrating AI into its operations, with a focus on improving sales, service, and management processes [15][16] Market Outlook - Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, have upgraded China Ping An's rating to "overweight," citing strong financial performance and sustainable dividend growth [9] - The company is positioned to support the real economy through investments in new production capabilities and high-tech sectors [8][9]
港股买了2000多亿
表舅是养基大户· 2025-02-25 13:30
如果要给今天的A股港股的韧性打个分的话, 满分100分,至少能得95分,强的让人感到陌生了。 理论上来讲,昨晚美股的中概股走成那样了,今天应该拉一坨大的才对,但恒生科技开盘跌了4%多,结果盘中拉红,最后也就只跌了1.5%而 已,而A股这边,则全天都比较亢奋,即使尾盘跳水,主要股指的跌幅也都在1%附近,远远好于隔夜美股的中概表现。 昨天,我们提到不可低估America First Investment Policy的影响,结果 美股开盘后,中概股血崩 ,因为昨晚相当于政策发布后,美股的第一个交 易日,所以不管怎么说,在外资看来,确实兹事体大。 昨晚纳斯达克中国金龙指数,跌超5%,其中阿里跌超10%,拼多多跌近9%,京东和腾讯都是跌7%以上,历史上看,都是极其惨烈的一天。 我们往大了看,今天市场没崩的主要原因,我觉得是在于强大的、看起来似乎无穷无尽的 南向买入资金 ——今天,南向净买入超过220亿,这相 当于过往三个交易日净买入之和,也是2021年初以后,南向净买入第二大的交易日,仅次于一周之前,2月18日的224亿,而算上今天的220亿, 南下今年2个月不到就累计买入港股突破2000亿了 ,很残暴。 这里,22 ...