从上个月就开始说，目前商品的运行区间就是围绕前期情绪高点为上限，完全成本为下限做区间震荡，8月是降波行情，大部分商品都是遵循这 个规律运作的，做卖权的这个月吃着高波，基本稳赚20%。 你以为是出了小作文才涨/跌，天天追着问又出了什么小作为，实际上是价格到位了，消息自然就来了。 今天碳酸锂全合约跌停后，我还看到 著名某则研究用当下现货升水吹嘘说8.4的碳酸锂低估，要知道，现在是全合约高位首次跌停+基本面支撑不足+全市场情绪低位，刚开始光脚大 阴线就谈低估，像极了800焦煤第一个光头大阳线就说高估的人。 我认为拿碳酸锂现货价格谈期货价格支撑就好像拿焦煤仓单成本谈焦煤跌不下来一样，没任何意义。 既然信价格法，既然基本面看供需没有明 显短缺（基本面数据前期文章都有写过），那支撑价格的永远是完全成本，前期锂精矿会随着碳酸锂期货上行而上行，现在自然也会随着期货 价格下行而下行，这是个期货带动现货的市场，焦煤同理。 至于传的修改供需平衡的小作文，一看就只是资金要出货了，编个小作文散播出去 罢了，枧下窝停产影响8万吨还是3万吨，宁德的会议都谈过很多，更何况大资金那么多关系网，怎么可能弄错。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a bear market mentality to a bull market mentality in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new market conditions and the potential for sustained growth [4][9][22]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continuous upward trend, with a 0.43% increase on Friday, marking four consecutive weeks of gains and approaching the high point from the "9·24" market [3]. - The 14-day RSI index has recently reached 77.25, breaking through the critical 70-point level, indicating a shift towards a bull market [4][8]. Market Sentiment - Historically, the A-share market has been characterized by a bear market mentality, with the 14-day RSI often remaining below 70, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment [7][12]. - The current market shows signs of a changing sentiment, as investors appear to be overcoming their "fear of heights," which is a sign of emerging bull market thinking [14][16]. Bull Market Characteristics - A true bull market mentality involves not only accepting new highs but also managing pullbacks effectively, with the ideal scenario being a maximum decline of 10-15% [17][19]. - The article highlights that the depth and duration of any upcoming pullbacks will be crucial in determining whether the current market trend is a sustainable bull market or just a temporary spike [21][23]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to gradually adapt to the bull market rhythm, fostering patience and confidence while maintaining a respectful awareness of market dynamics [22]. - The article suggests using observable indicators, such as the RSI and drawdown levels, to objectively assess market strength rather than relying on subjective optimism [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a bull market mindset, urging investors to abandon bearish thinking and recognize the potential opportunities in the current market environment [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - Ningde Times has significantly influenced market performance, with its stock rising approximately 7% in Hong Kong and around 4% in A-shares, highlighting a valuation discrepancy between the two markets [1]. - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%, largely driven by Ningde Times, which contributed 0.84% to the index's gain, indicating that without this stock, the index would have shown no increase [2]. Group 2: Bull Market Thinking - The article outlines characteristics of bearish thinking, including a belief that the stock market lacks long-term investment value and a tendency to project personal negative experiences onto the broader market [6][7]. - It argues that maintaining a bearish mindset can lead to missed opportunities, particularly in the context of the current favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Key factors supporting a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong market include an unprecedented low interest rate environment, relaxed regulations for insurance capital investments, and a shift in supply dynamics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9][10]. - Insurance capital has shown a trend of increasing equity investments, with the proportion of investments in stocks rising from 6.78% in Q1 2024 to 8.43% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase in capital allocation to equities [15]. Group 4: Sector Highlights - The article notes that gold and related stocks have performed well, with gold prices surpassing 3300 USD, driven by geopolitical tensions [24][25]. - It highlights the competitive advantage of Huaxia's gold ETFs, which have the lowest management fees in the market, potentially attracting more investors [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during bull markets, emphasizing that many investors do not believe in the onset of a bull market until it is well underway, leading to missed opportunities and potential losses [4][5]. Group 1: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - Many investors, having experienced bear markets, develop a mindset that every purchase is a mistake and every rebound is a last chance to escape, causing them to remain under-invested in the early stages of a bull market [5]. - As the bull market progresses, investors gradually shift their belief to thinking that every sale is a mistake, leading to overexposure and potential losses when the market corrects [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility - Bull markets are characterized by significant volatility, which can lead to investor losses even when they initially believe they are in a rising market [6][7]. - Investors may experience substantial gains, only to see those gains evaporate during market corrections, leading to emotional distress and poor decision-making [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A sound investment strategy involves proper asset allocation and a focus on stable investments to navigate through market fluctuations [10][11]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio with a significant allocation to fixed-income assets can provide a safety net, reducing overall volatility and helping investors avoid the pitfalls of trying to time the market [12].