Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital through ETFs is reshaping the pricing system of Hong Kong stocks, with significant net inflows and a shift in pricing power from foreign to domestic capital [1][7][9]. Group 1: Capital Inflows and ETF Performance - Southbound capital net bought HK stocks worth 358.76 billion HKD on August 15, marking a record high since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism, with total net purchases reaching 938.9 billion HKD this year [1]. - Nine stock ETFs have received over 10 billion HKD in net inflows this year, with six being Hong Kong-themed ETFs, indicating a strong preference for these products [4]. - The performance of Hong Kong-themed ETFs has been robust, with significant increases in assets under management, such as the 177.03 billion HKD increase in the Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF over the past month [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The internet, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading themes attracting capital, with ETFs in these sectors showing substantial growth [2][3]. - The Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF has achieved a year-to-date return of 37.14%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. - Non-bank financial ETFs have also shown impressive returns, with the E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment ETF yielding 64.89% this year, benefiting from increased market activity [3]. Group 3: Impact on Pricing Dynamics - The growing influence of ETFs is evident in the performance of H-shares of brokerage firms, which have outperformed their A-share counterparts, driven by increased ETF investments [6][8]. - The shift in pricing power is attributed to the significant net inflows from domestic capital, particularly through ETFs, which are beginning to dominate the pricing mechanism of Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. - The overall market is experiencing a valuation recovery, particularly in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as the influence of foreign capital diminishes [8][9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the current valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market is just beginning, with ETFs seen as a key vehicle for investors to engage in this transformation [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market is positioned as a major offshore RMB market, benefiting from both southbound capital inflows and foreign investment interest, suggesting a more favorable long-term investment landscape [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of over 910 billion HKD this year, indicating strong interest in the Hong Kong stock market, which has outperformed major global indices [2][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflow - As of August 12, 2023, the cumulative net inflow of southbound capital reached 910.29 billion HKD, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, with over 80% of trading days showing net inflows [4]. - The financial, information technology, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and communication services sectors have the highest market value holdings from southbound capital [4]. - Major holdings include Tencent Holdings at nearly 560 billion HKD, with other significant positions in China Construction Bank, China Mobile, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, each exceeding 200 billion HKD [4]. Group 2: ETF Inflows - The top ten cross-border ETFs by net inflow this year are all Hong Kong products, with the Huaxia Hong Kong Internet ETF leading at 33.37 billion HKD [4]. - Other notable ETFs include the Southern Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF and the E Fund Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF, each attracting over 10 billion HKD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The pricing power of southbound capital in the Hong Kong market varies by sector, with significant influence in dividend stocks, while growth stocks remain contested between domestic and international investors [5]. - The southbound trading volume has risen to over 40% of the total trading amount for interconnect stocks, with expectations of cumulative net inflows exceeding 1 trillion HKD by 2025 [5]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as being in a mid-stage of value recovery, with key sectors like internet and innovative pharmaceuticals still undervalued [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity, reduced external risks, and potential policy support, leading to a narrowing of the A/H premium [7]. - The internet sector is anticipated to begin a valuation recovery from the second half of 2024, with significant growth potential for technology stocks as the market sentiment shifts from pessimism to neutrality [7].

Core Insights - Since the second quarter, southbound capital has continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 292.5 billion in Q2, leading to a historical high in the market value share of southbound holdings in Hong Kong stocks [3][6] - The proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings increased from 19.0% at the end of Q1 to 20.7% at the end of Q2, while the foreign capital share decreased from 62.8% to 60.4% [3][6] - From a stock perspective, foreign capital still dominates most sub-sectors in Hong Kong stocks, but with the inflow of southbound capital, the marginal pricing power of southbound investors is significantly increasing in sectors such as consumer services, household products, automotive, commercial services, durable consumption, biopharmaceuticals, medical device services, energy, and banking [3][6] Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the southbound capital's marginal pricing power is notably rising in various sectors, including consumer services, household products, automotive, commercial services, durable consumption, biopharmaceuticals, medical device services, energy, and banking [3][6][13] - The data indicates that foreign capital still holds a dominant position in most sub-sectors of Hong Kong stocks, but the increasing southbound capital is changing the dynamics of pricing power in these industries [3][6][12]

如果要给今天的A股港股的韧性打个分的话， 满分100分，至少能得95分，强的让人感到陌生了。 理论上来讲，昨晚美股的中概股走成那样了，今天应该拉一坨大的才对，但恒生科技开盘跌了4%多，结果盘中拉红，最后也就只跌了1.5%而 已，而A股这边，则全天都比较亢奋，即使尾盘跳水，主要股指的跌幅也都在1%附近，远远好于隔夜美股的中概表现。 昨天，我们提到不可低估America First Investment Policy的影响，结果 美股开盘后，中概股血崩 ，因为昨晚相当于政策发布后，美股的第一个交 易日，所以不管怎么说，在外资看来，确实兹事体大。 昨晚纳斯达克中国金龙指数，跌超5%，其中阿里跌超10%，拼多多跌近9%，京东和腾讯都是跌7%以上，历史上看，都是极其惨烈的一天。 我们往大了看，今天市场没崩的主要原因，我觉得是在于强大的、看起来似乎无穷无尽的 南向买入资金 ——今天，南向净买入超过220亿，这相 当于过往三个交易日净买入之和，也是2021年初以后，南向净买入第二大的交易日，仅次于一周之前，2月18日的224亿，而算上今天的220亿， 南下今年2个月不到就累计买入港股突破2000亿了 ，很残暴。 这里，22 ...