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油脂油料早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:04
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending August 7 was 518,066 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 500,000 tons [1]. - As of August 10, the U.S. soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations, with a decline from the previous week [1]. - Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with a 27% increase in daily average export volume compared to August last year [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.3% (ITS data) and 23.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [1]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached the highest in nearly two years, with a 4.02% month - on - month increase to 2.11 million tons due to strong production [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending August 7 was 518,066 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 500,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 628,110 tons [1]. - As of August 10, the U.S. soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [1]. - Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with a daily average export volume of 462,408.88 tons, a 27% increase compared to August last year [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.3% (ITS data) and 23.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [1]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached 2.11 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase, with production increasing by 7.09% to 1.81 million tons and exports increasing by 3.82% to 1.31 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 5 - 11 are provided [2]. Protein Meal Basis - The report mentions protein meal basis but does not provide specific content [3]. Fat Basis - The report mentions fat basis but does not provide specific content [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread - The report mentions fat and oil futures spread but does not provide specific content [8]
“中国龙眼之乡”广东茂名今年首批龙眼出口加拿大
Core Insights - The article highlights the commencement of longan exports from Maoming, Guangdong, with an initial shipment of 18 tons heading to Canada, marking the start of the 2025 export season for Maoming longan [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Maoming is recognized as the "Hometown of Longan" in China, with a long history of over 2000 years in longan cultivation, primarily focusing on the Shuliang and Shixia varieties [1] - The total area dedicated to longan cultivation in Maoming has reached 780,000 acres, with Shuliang longan being a national geographical indication product known for its small seeds, thick flesh, and sweet flavor [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Maoming longan is exported to various countries, including the United States, Canada, and Japan, and is well-received by consumers both domestically and internationally [1] - To facilitate the export of longan, which has a short shelf life and is difficult to store and transport, Maoming Customs has established a fast track for fresh agricultural products, implementing a "one-on-one" special connection for expedited processing [1]
美豆产区天气良好,油脂震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The weather in the US soybean production areas is favorable, with a decreasing drought rate and good growth. As the weather window gradually closes, there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to an oscillatory adjustment [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.22% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,406 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan or 0.69% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + -10 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 104 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 114 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - **US Drought**: As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [2] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year, the smallest increase since the 2006/07 season. The estimated production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons. Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year [2] - **US Soybean Exports**: The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 468,000 tons, up from 349,000 tons the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 545,000 tons, up from 429,000 tons the previous week [2] - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazilian soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.74 million tons, compared to 2.1 million tons last year; corn exports are expected to be 7.58 million tons, compared to 6.42 million tons last year [2] - **Import Prices**: Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price is $561/ton, down $7/ton; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price is $551/ton, down $7/ton. Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) C&F price is $1,141/ton, down $12/ton; Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price is $1,120/ton, down $21/ton [2]
智利开辟鲜柠檬印尼市场
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-01 04:52
Core Insights - Chile's Agriculture Ministry has signed a plant quarantine agreement with Indonesia, officially opening the fresh lemon export market to Indonesia, which is the world's fourth most populous country and the largest Muslim nation [1] - This development presents new opportunities for Chilean agricultural exports, particularly in the lemon sector, which has seen significant growth [1] Export Growth - Chile's lemon export industry is experiencing robust growth, with export value projected to increase from $65 million in 2023 to $87 million in 2024, representing a 34% year-on-year growth [1] - Current export markets include the United States, parts of Europe, and South Korea, with the addition of Indonesia expected to benefit regions such as Coquimbo, Valparaíso, and the capital area [1] Bilateral Relations - The achievement is attributed to the collaboration between public and private sectors in Chile [1] - President Boric plans to visit Indonesia during the 2025 APEC summit to further deepen bilateral economic and trade relations [1]
豆粕周报:多重利多因素作用,连粕或震荡偏强-20250721
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 27.5 to close at 1035 cents per bushel, a 2.73% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 80 to close at 3056 yuan per ton, a 2.69% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 30 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 1.06% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 89 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 3.38% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 3.59% increase [4][7]. - The U.S. soybeans closed higher in a volatile market. Firstly, the U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and driven by the boost of the biodiesel policy, the strength of U.S. soybean oil led to the increase. Secondly, the export sales progress of new - crop soybeans accelerated, and the agricultural product procurement agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia was conducive to increasing the export demand for U.S. agricultural products. Thirdly, precipitation in the production areas during the critical growth period in August might decrease compared with the previous period, and the temperature would rise, with the possibility of drought still existing. The Brazilian premium fluctuated within a limited range, and combined with the strength of the external market, there was support from the import cost. There was an expectation of tight soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and there was still no news of soybean procurement. The Dalian soybean meal rose in a volatile market. In the near - term, soybean meal was in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, the supply was relatively loose, and the rebound strength of the spot price was limited [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the production areas will be slightly higher than the average, but the precipitation forecast at the end of July has decreased compared with the previous period, and the temperature is relatively high, so there are still concerns about drought. Attention should be paid to the U.S. tariff trade negotiations, as an agricultural product agreement may be reached, which is conducive to boosting the export expectations of U.S. agricultural products. Under the effect of the U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil has risen significantly, supporting the increase in U.S. soybeans. The near - term crushing capacity utilization rate is at a high level, the spot supply is sufficient, and the rebound strength is limited. Attention should be paid to further Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations. If the relationship improves, it may be conducive to starting the procurement of U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian premium is stable, and the increase in the external market has raised the import cost. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may run in a slightly stronger and volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 18 | July 11 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1035.00 | 1007.50 | 27.50 | 2.73% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 472.00 | 467.00 | 5.00 | 1.07% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 458.00 | 452.00 | 6.00 | 1.33% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 17.41 | - 32.57 | 15.16 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3056.00 | 2976.00 | 80.00 | 2.69% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2722.00 | 2633.00 | 89.00 | 3.38% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 334.00 | 343.00 | - 9.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2900.00 | 2830.00 | 70.00 | 2.47% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2850.00 | 2820.00 | 30.00 | 1.06% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 206.00 | - 156.00 | - 50.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean market: The U.S. soybean crushing volume in June was higher than the average expectation of market analysts, and the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought. The export sales of U.S. soybeans showed different trends in different periods. The 2024/2025 annual cumulative export sales volume was 5065 tons, with a sales progress of 99.8%. The 2025/2026 annual weekly export net sales were 53 tons, and the cumulative sales volume of this year was 237 tons [7][8][9]. - Brazilian soybean market: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in July was expected to be 1219 tons. The 2025 soybean production forecast in Brazil reached a record 1.697 billion tons, and the processing volume and export volume forecasts were also adjusted upwards [10][15]. - Inventory situation: As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 88.62 tons, the unexecuted contracts were 548.8 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 tons. As of the week ending July 18, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the weekly average daily pick - up volume was 185,240 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.26 days [10][11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean export in the first two weeks of July was 4,331,243.97 tons, with an average daily export volume of 481,249.33 tons, a 1.61% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in July last year [12]. - As of the week ending July 2, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan, Canada was 58.97%. As of the week ending July 8, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 63.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed was at different growth stages [12]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 7 to July 11 was 443.58 reais per ton [13]. - As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed import volumes were all lower than the same period last year [13]. - The 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production was expected to remain at 3.25 million tons, and the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans [14]. - The U.S. renewable fuel blending credit limit in June increased compared with May. The ethanol (D6) blending credit limit was about 1.25 billion gallons, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credit limit increased from 602 million gallons last month to 629 million gallons in June [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 49.5 million tons [15]. Relevant Charts The report includes 28 charts, covering the trends of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rates, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][29][31][35][38][39][41][43][48][49]
【期货盯盘神器专属文章】CBOT农产品晚间分析:美豆出口量好于市场预期,交易员信心大增,价格还要涨多少?
news flash· 2025-07-18 12:27
Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. soybean export volumes have exceeded market expectations, leading to increased trader confidence and speculation about further price increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. soybean exports are performing better than anticipated, which is a positive indicator for the market [1] - Increased trader confidence is noted as a result of the favorable export data, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The article raises the question of how much further prices may rise, indicating ongoing speculation about future price movements in the soybean market [1]
山东蔬果“飘香”海外,上半年山东农产品出口值超800亿元
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-17 03:00
Core Insights - Shandong Province is a major agricultural exporter in China, leading the nation in agricultural product exports with a total export value of 804.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, reflecting a growth of 3.5% [3][4] - The province has 21 brands included in the National Agricultural Brand Boutique Cultivation Program, the highest in the country, and 171 brands listed under the "Good Products Shandong" brand [3] Export Performance - The main categories of agricultural exports, including vegetables, seafood, and fruits, have shown strong growth, with vegetable and edible fungus exports reaching 206.8 billion yuan (up 1%), seafood at 175.9 billion yuan (up 16%), and dried and fresh fruits and nuts at 50.3 billion yuan (up 20.1%) [3][4] - Ten out of 16 cities in Shandong reported positive growth in agricultural exports, with Zaozhuang and Weihai showing growth rates of 19.2% and 12.1%, respectively [4] Market Expansion - Exports to major markets such as Japan (161.9 billion yuan, up 2.2%), ASEAN (137.7 billion yuan, up 6.6%), and the EU (117 billion yuan, up 4.1%) have all increased [4] - Emerging markets have also seen significant growth, with exports to the Arab League, Africa, Central Asia, and India growing by 28.1%, 33.8%, 38.5%, and 32.6%, respectively [4] Business Dynamics - A total of 6,082 enterprises engaged in agricultural exports were recorded, an increase of 522 from the previous year, with private enterprises accounting for 5,527 of these, contributing 644.6 billion yuan in export value [4][5] - The provincial government is focused on enhancing the agricultural value chain and promoting deep integration of agricultural production and processing, which has led to a continuous increase in agricultural export value for 26 years [5][6] Value Addition - The average export price of dried garlic reached 24.3 yuan per kilogram, significantly higher than the 9 yuan per kilogram for fresh garlic, indicating a successful strategy in increasing the value of agricultural products [5] - The government is implementing measures to facilitate agricultural exports, including promoting AEO certification for food processing enterprises and providing support for companies entering international markets [5][6]
油脂油料早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 13:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean crush volume in June was higher than market expectations, while the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. The crush capacity reached a record level, but was not fully utilized due to the oversupply of soybean meal [1]. - Brazil's estimated soybean and soybean meal exports in July have increased compared to previous forecasts [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 showed a decline according to two different inspection agencies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean crush: In June, NOPA member units crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans, a 3.7% decrease from May and a 5.8% increase from June 2024. The average forecast of eight analysts was 185.195 million bushels. The daily crush volume in June was 6.19 million bushels, down from 6.22 million bushels in May [1]. - US soybean oil inventory: As of June 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% decline from the end of May and a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year. Analysts expected it to rise slightly to 1.374 billion pounds [1]. - US soybean meal and soybean oil production in May: The soybean meal production was 4,417,754 short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.25336 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's export forecast: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons (previously 11.93 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.25 million tons (previously 2.19 million tons) [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports: ITS data showed a 6.2% decline in palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 compared to the same period in June, while AmSpec data showed a 5.29% decrease [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 9 - 15, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis The report mentions protein meal basis but does not provide specific data [3]. Fat Basis The report mentions fat basis but does not provide specific data [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread The report mentions fat and oil futures spread but does not provide specific data [8]
油脂油料早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 08:14
1. Overnight Market Information - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending July 10, 2025 was 147,045 tons, lower than the market forecast of 200,000 - 500,000 tons and the revised figure of 399,600 tons in the previous week [1] - As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [1] - Brazil exported 4,331,243.97 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of July 2025, with an average daily export volume 1.61% lower than that in July last year [1] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 were 4,937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, while the imports of edible vegetable oil decreased by 8.6% [1] - India's palm oil imports in June 2025 jumped 60% to 955,683 tons, reaching an 11 - month high, and the domestic vegetable oil inventory increased to 156.8 million tons as of July 1 [1] 2. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 8 - 14, 2025 are presented in a table [9] 3. Other Information - There are sections about the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, protein meal basis, oil basis, oil futures price spread, and oil import profit, but no specific content is provided [3][10][12][15]
油脂油料早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, was higher than expected, while the planting area was lower than expected, and the good-to-excellent rate was also lower than expected [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports showed varying degrees of increase in June 2025 according to different institutions' data [1]. - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, but the export tax remained unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. 2025 Q2 soybean inventory was 1.007664 billion bushels, higher than the estimated 0.98 billion bushels. Farm - in inventory was 0.4117 billion bushels, and farm - out inventory was 0.595964 billion bushels [1]. - The estimated U.S. 2025 soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the market estimate of 83.655 million acres, and the 2024 actual planting area was 87.05 million acres [1]. - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [1]. - A private exporter reported selling 204,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 224,787 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 45.851787 million tons, compared with 41.554272 million tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated U.S. May 2025 soybean crushing volume was 204.7 million bushels, 1.1% higher than April and 6.8% higher than May 2024. The estimated May 31 soybean oil inventory was 1.871 billion pounds, down 5.3% from the end of April and 14.5% from May 2024 [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's June 2025 palm oil exports increased 4.3% month - on - month; ITS reported a 4.7% increase; SGS reported an 11.74% increase [1]. - Indonesia raised the July reference price of crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton from $856.38 in June, with the export tax remaining at $52 per ton [1]. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided [2]. Futures Price Spreads of Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [5]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 24 - 30, 2025 [3]. Basis of Protein Meal and Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [3][7].