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美豆产量上调,豆粕偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the current port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient, the market is still worried about the soybean arrival in the first quarter. Coupled with the recent general rise in commodities, the soybean meal price has been running strongly recently. However, the supply pressure brought by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the future is the most important influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the growth of Brazilian soybeans and USDA reports [3] - For the corn market, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently mainly purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, there will still be certain stocking needs in the future. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2761 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2314 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil exported 646,000 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,000 tons, a 121% increase from the daily average in January last year. As of last Thursday, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.6%, exceeding 0.3% in the same period last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.53 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1.275 million tons. The US soybean inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] Market Analysis - The current high port inventory and sufficient supply, along with concerns about the first - quarter soybean arrival and the general rise in commodities, have led to a recent strong performance in soybean meal prices. However, the future supply pressure from the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans is the key factor [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2561 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Market Information: Brazil exported 1.674 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 279,000 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average in January last year. The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.49 million tons, within the market expectation of 900,000 - 1.575 million tons. The US corn inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 13.282 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the same period in 2024 [4] Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching Spring Festival, there will be stocking needs, and attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]
油脂油料早报-20260113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data and trends in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed. There are changes in production, inventory, and export data of major countries, which will have an impact on the market supply and demand situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual US Soybean Information - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 is 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [1]. - The estimated planted area is 81.2 million acres, and the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, both slightly increased compared to December [1]. - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, the same as in December [1]. - The estimated production is 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion bushels in December [1]. - The estimated export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, down from 1.635 billion bushels in December [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production in 2025/26 is 178 million tons, up from 175 million tons in December, and the estimated export volume is 114 million tons, up from 112.5 million tons in December [1]. - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from December [1]. - China's estimated soybean import volume is 112 million tons, unchanged from December [1]. - The global estimated soybean production is 425.68 million tons, up from 422.54 million tons in December, and the estimated ending inventory is 124.41 million tons, up from 122.37 million tons in December [1]. 3.3 US Soybean Inventory on December 1, 2025 - The total soybean inventory in the US on December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 3.1 billion bushels on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The on - farm inventory was 1.576 billion bushels, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the off - farm inventory was 1.714 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the previous year [1]. - The apparent consumption of soybeans from September to November 2025 was 1.3 billion bushels, a 20% decrease from the previous year [1]. 3.4 US Soybean Export Inspection Volume - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1,275,000 tons [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.91% of the total [1]. - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 17,934,546 tons, compared with 31,324,934 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. 3.5 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.6%, better than 0.3% in the same period of the previous year [1]. - Brazil exported 645,737.53 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 107,622.92 tons, a 121% increase from the average daily export volume in January of the previous year [1]. 3.6 Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous month, while the production decreased by 20.49% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December 2025 soared to a nearly seven - year high, reaching 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month [1]. - The palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, but it was still the highest output in December in eight years [1]. - The palm oil export in December increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons, reversing the decline of the previous month [1]. 3.7 Global Rapeseed Situation - The estimated global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 95.172 million tons, an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 12.184 million tons, an increase of 2.384 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed oil production is 35.65 million tons, an increase of 1.482 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 3.299 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed meal production is 50.912 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 1.561 million tons, an increase of 0.125 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume in 2025/26 is 7.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.131 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.035 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed meal export volume is 5.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.199 million tons year - on - year [1]. 3.8 Spot Prices - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2][3].
油脂油料早报-20260112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 01:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - There are multiple updates on the soybean and palm oil markets, including export sales, harvest progress, and inventory levels [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - A private exporter reported the sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans for the 2025/2026 market year to an unknown destination [1]. - Brazilian farmers have harvested 0.53% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, compared to 0.05% last year and a five - year average of 0.39% [1]. - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the 2025/26 soybean harvest started slightly earlier, with 1.98% of the total area harvested as of Friday, up 1.28 percentage points from 2025 and ahead of the historical average of 1.09% [1]. - On January 13, 2026, the National Grain and Material Reserves Bureau's Grain Trading Coordination Center will organize a competitive trading of imported soybeans, with a quantity of 1.1396 million tons at 13:30 [1]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from the same period last month [1]. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 2.97 million tons, the highest since January 2019. December production is expected to decline 8.7% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, while exports are expected to increase 2.9% month - on - month to 1.245 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 5 - 9, 2026 are provided [6].
2025年越南胡椒出口额达16.6亿美元
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-01-09 15:12
就出口结构来看,黑胡椒占据主导地位,出口额13.7亿美元,白胡椒出口额2.888亿美元。 (原标题:2025年越南胡椒出口额达16.6亿美元) 《税务、海关在线》1月8日报道,根据越南胡椒香料协会(VPSA)统计,2025年越南胡椒出口量 为247,482吨,同比下降1.2%,出口总值为16.6亿美元,同比增长26%,创越南胡椒出口额历史新高。与 2024年相比,平均出口价格大幅上涨,其中黑胡椒价格每吨6607美元,上涨36.2%;白胡椒价格每吨 8629美元,上涨33.6%。 就市场来看,美国仍是越南胡椒最大出口市场,出口量为 50,577 吨,占出口总量的 22.3%(同比 下降23.8%)。其他几个出口市场均呈正增长,其中:出口至阿联酋为22,232吨,同比增长35.6%,占出 口总量的9%;出口至中国为19,923吨,同比增长88%,占出口总量的8.1%;出口至印度为12,499吨,同 比增长17.7%。 ...
油脂油料早报-20260109
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export sales and shipments data show fluctuations, and the market has expectations for the US soybean production. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - For the week ending January 1, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased 87.79 tons, down 25% from the previous week and 42% from the four - week average, in line with the market estimate of 75 - 130 tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net increased 47.01 tons. US soybean exports shipped were 111.26 tons, down 9% from the previous week but up 17% from the four - week average, with 39.71 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. The current - market - year new sales were 101.25 tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1]. - For the week ending January 1, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased 16.47 tons, in line with the market estimate of 10 - 30 tons. Exports shipped were 50.13 tons, up 92% from the previous week and 56% from the four - week average. Current - market - year new sales were 17.26 tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0.66 tons [1]. - Before the supply - demand report, analysts expected the 2025 US soybean production to be 4.229 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.7 bushels per acre and a harvested area of 80.28 million acres [1]. - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in January would be 2.4 million tons, higher than the 1.12 million tons in the same period last year and matching the 2024 record. Brazil's soybean meal exports in January are expected to be 1.64 million tons, the same as last year. Anec also expects Brazil's soybean exports to further increase in 2026, reaching 112 million tons, up from 108.68 million tons in 2025 [1]. - An Indonesian official said that due to financial constraints, Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support the biodiesel program. Currently, the monthly export tax for crude palm oil is 10%, and for refined palm oil products, it is between 4.75 - 9.5%. The country plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, possibly starting from the second half [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [4]. Protein Meal Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content. Oil Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content. Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads - Not elaborated in the provided content.
成都柠檬香飘二十国
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 20:03
转自:成都日报锦观 柠檬"身价"涨了,当地农户和集体经济也尝到了甜头。如今雷家镇2000多户农户靠种柠檬年均增收2万元;黑水寺村以60万元资金和土地入股 基地,不仅每年有3万元保底收益,还能按出口柜数分红,2025年预计能分红6万元。 小镇建起出口总部基地 成都日报锦观新闻记者 陈泳 受访单位供图 "今年行情好,订单也比往年多很多,我们得抓住这个机会!"简阳格林兰农业开发有限公司总经理李迁一大早便忙个不停,"这批是发到泰国 的,那边正在包装的是俄罗斯的订单。" 基地外的果园里,雷家镇的柠檬果实累累,喜获丰收。金黄的果实不仅远销俄罗斯、泰国等20多个国家,更卖出了往年不敢想的高价。据悉, 作为全球很多国家的"刚需"产品,柠檬在国际市场需求一直很稳定,可2025年全球主要柠檬出口国土耳其果园大面积减产,国际市场出现巨大 供应缺口,价格节节走高,目前已翻了一倍多。 "幸亏我们建成了这个出口总部基地,才能抓住这波机遇!"李迁告诉记者,雷家镇地处北纬30度附近,温度适宜、土壤肥沃,特别适合尤力克 品种柠檬的生长。为了让简阳柠檬真正"走出去",简阳市和雷家镇引导数千亩柠檬园成功通过海关出口基地备案,帮助格林兰农业公司取得 ...
【BOYAR监测】饲料原料市场每日简评【1.4】
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 11:01
Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - CBOT soybean futures declined due to light trading post-holiday and competition from Brazilian soybeans, with March soybean settling at $10.45-3/4 per bushel, the lowest since October 23 [1] - March soybean meal futures fell by $3.40, closing at $296.00 per short ton, while March soybean oil futures increased by $0.74, settling at $0.4930 per pound [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices remained stable, with a USDA announcement of a $12 billion agricultural aid plan, although soybean farmers indicated that the subsidies are insufficient to cover losses from low prices and trade disputes [2] Group 2: Export and Production Insights - U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending December 18 showed a net increase of 987,100 tons, a decrease of 59% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average [2] - Brazil's soybean planting is nearly complete with favorable weather conditions, leading to increased production forecasts from several analysis firms [2] - Argentina's soybean planting is 86% complete, with good growth conditions reported [2] Group 3: Corn Market Dynamics - CBOT corn futures experienced a slight decline amid light trading, with March corn settling at $4.37-1/2 per bushel, supported by strong export momentum [4] - Domestic corn prices showed minor fluctuations, with processing enterprises in Shandong adjusting purchase prices based on supply [5][6] - There are rumors of a corn auction scheduled for January 9, with specific pricing details for different regions [6]
搭乘中欧班列(成都)“巴食巴适”出口欧洲
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2026-01-04 07:05
Group 1 - The core event is the first export of high-quality agricultural products from Bazhong City, utilizing the China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu) to Europe, specifically to Germany and Italy, with a total value exceeding 2.2 million yuan [1] - The exported agricultural products include six types: Tongjiang silver fungus, wood ear mushrooms, Nanjing walnuts, walnut oil, and "Qinba Yunding" green and black tea, representing the quality of the "Bashiba" series [1] - The use of the China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu) is expected to reduce transportation costs for enterprises and has become a common method for exporting agricultural products from various regions [1] Group 2 - The China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu) has operated for over six years, with more than 4,600 trains dispatched, accounting for approximately 25% of the national total, making it the most stable and fastest railway express in the country [2] - This railway service has facilitated over 20 billion USD in import and export trade, highlighting its significant impact on international trade [2] - The Chengdu International Railway Port is enhancing cold chain transportation technology for vegetables, fruits, and flowers to expedite delivery to overseas cities [1]
水库移民后扶项目助力蔡门村鲜食玉米基地建设
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2026-01-03 23:42
近日,句容茅山镇蔡门村首批真空包装鲜食玉米正式出口新加坡。这是江苏省鲜食玉米首次实现出 口,为本地特色农产品走向海外市场迈出了新的一步。在这过程中,蔡门村鲜食玉米基地的建设,离不 开句容市水库移民后扶项目的支持。 该项目负责人介绍,蔡门村玉米基地建设工程为句容市2024年水库移民后扶项目,总投资301.17万 元。项目主要建设内容为鲜食玉米深加工厂房改造1476平方米,新建灌溉泵站1座和配套附属管件,埋 设下田涵10座,新建隔离栅1109米、耕作道路434米,以及排水沟护砌533.3米、大塘护砌63米。 "我们村的鲜食玉米是从2023年开始种植的,起初只有十来亩的规模,加工的话也是通过附近村庄 的一个小作坊进行。"蔡门村党总支副书记王道田告诉记者。2024年村里建了新的厂房,进了先进设 备,提升了加工能力,种植规模也扩大到了100多亩,加工好的鲜食玉米通过电商平台销售,并和附近 各大商场超市合作,走进了杭州盒马鲜生超市,特别令人兴奋的是产品出口到了新加坡。 王道田表示,通过鲜食玉米基地厂房升级改造,提高了玉米基地产品生产效率和品质,扩大了蔡门 村鲜食玉米的对外销售路径,同时通过新建泵站、田间沟渠塘坝护砌、道路 ...
辩证看农产品出口成绩单
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-03 02:46
Core Insights - China has achieved impressive agricultural export results, with nearly 600 billion yuan in exports and 838 product categories exported to 223 countries and regions in the first ten months of the year [1] - The quality and reputation of Chinese agricultural products are improving, indicating a shift from "large quantity, low price" to stronger market competitiveness [1] - High-quality exports contribute to food security, as they involve the export of specialty products while ensuring domestic grain supply [2][3] Group 1 - Agricultural exports have increased in both volume and quality, reflecting the rapid development of new agricultural productivity and facilitating the smooth operation of domestic and international dual circulation [2] - New regulatory models, such as batch inspection for bamboo and wood products and rapid clearance modes at ports, have significantly improved logistics efficiency and reduced product loss during transportation [2] - The export of high-value agricultural products, such as fruits and vegetables, enhances farmers' income and encourages agricultural development, creating a positive cycle that supports rural revitalization [3] Group 2 - China has become the world's second-largest agricultural trading nation, with a balanced approach to agricultural exports and food security [3] - The future of Chinese agriculture lies not only in domestic cultivation but also in engaging with global markets, ensuring stability and security in food supply [3]