Report Information - Report Date: January 8, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Huang Liunan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0015892 - Email: huangliunan@gtht.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Reduce and take profit on short positions in crude oil, and pay attention to upside risks such as the Iran issue [1] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra: Closed, price -$3.92/Bbl, affected by sulfur content adjustment and WTI MEH demand fluctuations [2] - Arab Light: Closed, price -$4.47/Bbl, due to narrowing refining margins in the US Gulf and increased Middle Eastern light crude supply [2] - Nemba: Closed, price -$3.7/Bbl, influenced by seasonal fluctuations in Brazilian crude exports and US Gulf refinery maintenance [2] - Agbami: Closed, price -$5.78/Bbl, due to unstable Nigerian crude quality and domestic US production suppressing import demand [2] - Forties: Closed, price -$8.03/Bbl, affected by North Sea oilfield production cuts and narrowing trans - Atlantic arbitrage windows [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban: Open, price $1.84/Bbl, driven by strong demand for UAE light crude and OPEC+ production cuts [3] - Bonny Light: Closed, price -$24.13/Bbl, affected by Nigeria's domestic situation impacting export stability [3] - WTI MEH: Open, price $1.01/Bbl, due to narrowing price differences between the US Gulf and Europe and closing of the trans - Atlantic arbitrage window [3] 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Closed, price -$8.03/Bbl, due to Russian sanctions limiting North Sea crude supply and European refineries turning to the Middle East for procurement [4] - Dubai: Closed, price -$/, due to narrowing price differences between Middle Eastern benchmark crude and Brent, reducing cross - regional arbitrage opportunities [4] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Urals vs. Saharan Blend: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$23.86/Bbl, due to the deep discount of Urals crude making other crude imports uneconomical [5] - Urals vs. Azeri Light: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.22/Bbl, due to the high premium of Azeri crude [5] - Urals vs. Bonny Light: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.38/Bbl, due to light crude premiums and freight costs [5] - Urals vs. Ekofisk: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$26.56/Bbl, due to unfavorable North Sea crude price structure [5] - Urals vs. Eagle Ford: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.54/Bbl, due to high long - distance transportation costs of US crude [5] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Tapis: Affected by Asian demand recovery driving light crude premiums and tightening Middle Eastern supply [6] - ESPO: Due to Europe turning to Asia for procurement after the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a structural increase in ESPO crude demand [6] 6. Key Market News - PDVSA is negotiating with the US to sell crude oil [7] - The US is selectively lifting sanctions on Venezuela [8] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending January 2 was 728,000 barrels, up from 543,000 barrels [9] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 2 was - 3.832 million barrels, against an expected 447,000 barrels [10] - US Secretary of State Rubio outlined a three - stage process in Venezuela [10] - The US will continue to seize sanctioned oil tankers, and Trump is not afraid of escalating tensions with Russia [10] 7. Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, weakly bearish, neutral, weakly bullish, and strong [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to upside risks such as the Iran issue. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish view [1][12]. Core View - The report analyzes the crude oil arbitrage situation in multiple regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia, and also provides key market news related to the crude oil market. Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage status of various alternative crude oils in refinery configurations is mostly closed, with negative spreads. For example, Arab Extra Light in cracking configuration has a spread of -3.49, and Agbami in cracking configuration has a spread of -6.13 [1]. 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a slight positive incentive with a spread of 0.48, and Arab Extra Light has a medium spread of 2.26 driven by the increase in refinery value. Cabinda's arbitrage window is closed with a spread of -2.79, and Urals is affected by geopolitics [2]. 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - In the NWE region, the arbitrage between Forties and Azeri Light is closed with a negative price difference of -1.02, while the arbitrage between Forties and Bonny Light is open with a slight positive incentive of 0.6. In the Mediterranean, the arbitrage between Urals and Azeri Light and Bonny Light is closed due to negative freight and structure factors [4]. 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage of various crude oil varieties such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk is closed, with deep negative spreads, indicating difficult arbitrage opportunities [5]. 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - In Singapore, the arbitrage between Tapis and Dubai is closed with a spread of -0.99, while the arbitrage between Tapis and Bonny Light is open with a spread of 0.57. In Japan, the arbitrage between ESPO and Bonny Light is closed with a spread of -11.36, and the arbitrage between Dubai and Maya is open with a spread of 0.81. In China, the arbitrage between Dubai and Mars is open with a spread of 0.64 [5]. 6. Key Market News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu conveyed through Putin that Israel currently has no intention to further deteriorate the situation or attack Iran, but also stated that any Iranian attack will bring "serious consequences" [6][7]. - The US plans to intercept an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, and Rodriguez became the acting president of Venezuela. Maduro's son expressed "unconditional support" for Rodriguez [8]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in February at a premium of $0.3 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average [8]. - US Energy Secretary Wright plans to meet with oil industry leaders this week to discuss the "restart" of the Venezuelan energy sector [8]. - A Chevron-chartered oil tanker loaded with Venezuelan crude has left Venezuelan waters and is heading to the US Gulf Coast [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is to hold short positions and add short positions on rallies as appropriate. The crude oil trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][7]. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the arbitrage opportunities of different crude oil varieties in various regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia. It also provides key market news related to the crude oil industry, such as geopolitical events and statements from policymakers [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for all listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc.) are closed, with negative arbitrage incentives. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage incentive of -4.57, and the situation has improved slightly in December but remained negative throughout the year [1]. 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have open arbitrage windows. Saharan Blend has the most attractive arbitrage opportunity with an incentive of 1.91, while Cabinda's arbitrage window is closed with an incentive of -2.72 [2]. 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage windows with slight positive arbitrage incentives, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light have closed windows [4]. 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk are all closed, with deep negative arbitrage incentives. Ekofisk has the least favorable situation with an incentive of -26.13 [4]. 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, WTI MEH, and Eagle Ford have open arbitrage windows. Eagle Ford is the most attractive with an arbitrage incentive of 1.55, while Dubai's window is closed [5]. 6. Key Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister called for strengthening cooperation with Azerbaijan. The US claimed to have captured Venezuela's leader Maduro, and the Venezuelan state - owned oil company said the US attack did not damage oil facilities but the port was severely damaged. Brazil recognized Venezuela's Vice President Rodriguez as the leader. The US Fed's Paulson said further interest - rate cuts might be possible if inflation cools. Trump made various statements about Venezuela's oil supply, management, and US oil sales [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1] 2. Core View - The report provides an analysis of crude oil futures prices, various regional crude oil arbitrage opportunities, and key market news, indicating that the short - term crude oil market is volatile [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Price - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 1.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% increase, at 436.90 yuan/barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Among different crude oil varieties, Napo vs Mars has a significant arbitrage opportunity of 5.22 (Dec - 25), while most other pairs have negative or near - balance arbitrage windows [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Urals vs Bonny Light has an arbitrage window of 23.68 (Dec - 25), showing a relatively large difference [3] - **North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Saharan Blend vs Forties has a stable arbitrage space of 1.63 (Dec - 25), while some other varieties have weak or negative arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against Urals have deeply closed arbitrage windows, with large value differences and cost factors playing important roles [5] - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against ESPO have closed arbitrage windows, with price differences and high costs as main factors, and Eagle Ford has the relatively smallest loss [6] 3.3 Key Market News - President Trump said he heard that Iran was trying to rebuild its military power [6] - As of the week ending December 19, the total US natural gas inventory was 341.3 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 16.6 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 12.9 billion cubic feet less than the same period last year (a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%), and 2.4 billion cubic feet lower than the 5 - year average (a decrease of 0.7%) [7] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to suspend receiving crude oil on Monday evening [8] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) postponed the release of the weekly petroleum status report for the week ending December 19 [8] - Kazakhstan's oil production in December so far has dropped 6% from the November average to 1.93 million barrels per day [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report recommends holding short positions in crude oil and adding short positions as appropriate [1] 2. Core View - The prices of major crude oil contracts have declined, with WTI 02 down $1.61/barrel (2.76%) to $56.74/barrel, Brent 02 down $1.60/barrel (2.57%) to $60.64/barrel, and SC2602 down 10.80 yuan/barrel (2.44%) to 432.60 yuan/barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for different crude oil varieties and device types are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$0.52/barrel to -$8.06/barrel. Key negative factors include refinery value differences, crude oil price differences, high freight and structural costs, and lack of competitiveness [2] 3.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some crude oil varieties such as Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals show arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces ranging from +$0.3/barrel to +$2.46/barrel. However, Cabinda lacks competitiveness with a negative arbitrage space of -$2.66/barrel [4] 3.3 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some varieties like Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces ranging from +$0.06/barrel to +$1.35/barrel. WTI MEH is close to full balance, and Azeri Light lacks competitiveness with a negative space of -$0.92/barrel [5] 3.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for the listed crude oil varieties are deeply closed, with negative spaces ranging from -$23.41/barrel to -$26.3/barrel, indicating a lack of competitiveness [6] 3.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of +$0.34/barrel, +$5.71/barrel, and +$0.89/barrel respectively. Basrah Heavy and Maya are close to the break - even point [7] 3.6 Key Market News - Tensions in the Middle East: Iranian President Pezeshkian warns the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, and Israel may strike Iranian facilities again [8] - Russia extends its gasoline export ban until the end of February [8] - Iran seizes foreign oil tankers suspected of smuggling fuel to combat fuel smuggling [9] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak expects oil consumption to increase by over 1 million barrels per day annually and potentially reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - In the Asian session, international spot gold hits a new record high, and spot silver breaks through $75/ounce for the first time [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "lightly shorting" crude oil [4]. 2. Core View - The report provides an overview of international crude oil market conditions, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news, with a bearish view on the crude oil trend as indicated by a trend - strength of - 1 [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Crude Oil Price - WTI and Brent were closed without quotes. SC2602 crude oil futures rose 1.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.38%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking and coking units had a closed arbitrage state, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -0.52 to -8.06 USD/barrel [3]. - **Atlantic**: Some crude oil varieties like Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals in cracking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.3 to 2.46 USD/barrel, while Cabinda lacked competitiveness [5]. - **North - Western Europe**: Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light in cracking units showed arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.06 to 1.35 USD/barrel, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light lacked competitiveness [6]. - **Mediterranean**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking units had a closed arbitrage state, with large negative arbitrage spaces from -23.41 to -26.3 USD/barrel [7]. - **Asia**: Duri, Napo, and Mars in coking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.34 to 5.71 USD/barrel, while Basrah Heavy and Maya were close to the break - even point [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - The US launched a strike against ISIS terrorists in north - western Nigeria [9]. - Iraq's total crude oil exports in November were 106.5 million barrels [10]. - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [10]. - A Hamas delegation visited Baghdad and discussed the Gaza cease - fire agreement [10]. - The US escalated sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about fuel oil supply. Russian refinery attacks continued, and the market situation was affected by various factors such as seasonal demand changes and quota adjustments [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term continued observation of crude oil and recommends shorting at high prices when the opportunity arises [1] 2. Core View - The report provides price changes of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations of different crude oil varieties in multiple regions [1] 3. Content Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose $0.51 per barrel, a 0.91% increase, to $56.66 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose $0.65 per barrel, a 1.09% increase, to $60.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures rose 4.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.05% increase, to 431.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc., were closed, with negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness or no cost - advantage [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils presented arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces of +0.55, +0.27, +2.72, and +26.47 USD/Bbl respectively; Cabinda crude oil had insufficient competitiveness [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils had arbitrage opportunities, while Azeri Light crude oil's arbitrage window was closed [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils were all closed, showing weak competitiveness [7][8] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford crude oil was the only one presenting an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +1.04 USD/Bbl; Murban, Dubai, Bonny Light, and WTI MEH crude oils' arbitrage windows were closed [8] Key Market News - Trump mentioned stances on Venezuela; China's refined oil exports in November 2025 increased; Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals increased; the exchange will waive delivery commodity registration fees from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [9][10] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to continue watching [1] Core Views - The prices of major crude oil futures have increased, and there are various situations in crude oil arbitrage opportunities in different regions, along with some significant market news affecting the crude oil market [1][2][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures Price Movements - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.67 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%, reaching $55.94 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures 02 contract rose by $0.76 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%, reaching $59.68 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by 3.10 yuan per barrel, a gain of 0.73%, at 427.40 yuan per barrel [1] 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties, Arab Heavy, and Vasconia crude oils are closed, while Castilla and Napo crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Maya crude oil is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage window for Forties is closed, while Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Cabinda crude oil has insufficient competitiveness [4] 4. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils all present arbitrage opportunities in the Northwest Europe market [6] 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils are all closed when using Urals as the benchmark [7][8] 6. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 7. Key Market News - The Trump administration is inquiring if US oil companies are interested in returning to Venezuela, but the industry shows little interest due to low oil prices and other factors; several Venezuelan oil - by - product ships sailed out under naval escort; the Amuay refinery in Venezuela has restarted; US EIA crude oil inventory data shows changes; PDVSA declares normal export operations [12] 8. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to reduce and take profit on short positions and conduct short - term observation [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.62, a 1.08% decline, to $56.82 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.56, a 0.92% decline, to $60.56 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed down 5.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.26% decline, to 431.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties' arbitrage windows are closed, such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc. Only Ecuador's Napo crude oil presents significant arbitrage opportunities with an arbitrage space of $5.25 per barrel [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, especially Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $24.95 per barrel due to sanctions [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light all present arbitrage opportunities, with Eagle Ford having a relatively competitive advantage [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of most crude oil varieties against Urals are closed, such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, etc. [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya have their arbitrage windows closed or lack competitiveness [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Regarding the Fed, there are speculations about the candidate for the Fed chair; API crude oil inventory data shows a significant decrease; Bostic suggests maintaining interest rates in 2026; the US November non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high of 4.6% [12]