Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand situation in the commercial real estate sector does not determine individual operational results, with the ability to outperform peers being crucial for success [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased external uncertainties are expected to boost the value of shopping centers as domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic foundation for new development [1] - Shopping centers are vital physical spaces for consumer activities, and recent government initiatives aim to enhance consumption infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Major brand shopping centers are outperforming retail sales and rental growth, with projected average sales growth of 16.4% and rental income growth of 16.6% for three leading companies in 2024 [2] - The same companies are expected to see same-store sales growth of 6.2% and same-store rental growth of 3.1%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Expansion and Management - The three leading companies plan to open a total of 47 new shopping centers in 2024, with significant investments in both light and heavy asset models [3] - The average same-store sales growth for these companies exceeds the industry average by 6.2 percentage points, showcasing the effectiveness of quality management [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - There are over 6,000 shopping centers in China, but only about 25% are managed by high-quality management companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage for these firms [4] - Established brands have geographical advantages in tenant selection and consumer behavior, which helps them maintain higher rental growth compared to the overall retail sector [4] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The development of various financial instruments like public and private REITs is driving the revaluation of commercial real estate assets, with a focus on stable cash flow properties [5] - The recognition of quality management platforms is expected to expand beyond first-tier cities by 2025, enhancing their market presence [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (01209.HK) with a target price of HKD 39.04 [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of approximately HKD 17.043 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.629 billion, up 23.9% year-on-year, while the core net profit attributable to shareholders was about HKD 3.507 billion, increasing by 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 32.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 17.043 billion, with expected growth rates of 15% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027 [4] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 3.629 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 24% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 15% in 2027 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be HKD 1.59 in 2024, increasing to HKD 1.82 in 2025, HKD 2.08 in 2026, and HKD 2.39 in 2027 [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 20 in 2024, decreasing to 14 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at 4 for 2024 and 2025, and drops to 3 in 2026 and 2027 [4] Business Segment Performance - **Shopping Centers**: Revenue from shopping centers reached HKD 4.209 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a gross margin of 72.6%. The retail sales in managed shopping centers grew by 18.7% year-on-year [8] - **Property Management**: The property management segment generated revenue of HKD 10.715 billion, up 11.6% year-on-year, although the overall gross margin slightly decreased to 17.0% [8] - **Office Buildings**: Revenue from office buildings was HKD 2.065 billion, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 34.9% [8] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a 100% payout ratio for core net profit attributable to shareholders for two consecutive years, with total dividends per share reaching HKD 1.536, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on the closing price on March 27 [8]