招银国际发布研报称，由于华润万象生活(01209)估值更高的零售板块业务表现优预期，将贡献更高的 盈利占比，故上调目标市盈率倍数至23倍，对应年份滚动至2026年。因此，相应上调目标价18%，由 43.86港元升至51.84港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告表示，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，持续展现远超同业的运营能力。该行预 计，该板块利润贡献占比将于今年全年度，提升至60%，收入及毛利润增速分别达18%及27%。另外， 集团自2023年起至今维持100%派息，该行预计今年将持续此派息趋势，对应4.4%的股息率，在央企中 具较高吸引力。 ...

Core Insights - The core argument is that traditional retail spaces are losing their appeal as consumer attention shifts towards content-driven platforms, necessitating a transformation in how physical commercial spaces operate and engage customers [1][2][3] Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumer interest is increasingly driven by content rather than brand recognition, with users more likely to visit a location based on engaging content seen online [3][5] - The decision-making process for consumers has shifted from "I want to shop → find a place" to "I saw something interesting → I want to check it out" [3][5] - The effectiveness of brands in attracting customers is diminishing as users now perceive the world through content streams rather than brand lists [5][6] Group 2: The Role of Content in Retail - Content is becoming the primary mechanism for attracting visitors to physical spaces, with the need for continuous content updates to maintain consumer interest [6][11] - Retail spaces must evolve from being mere "containers" for brands to becoming "content generation platforms" that actively engage consumers [12][13] - Successful commercial spaces are those that can create a narrative and rhythm through content, making the experience dynamic and engaging for visitors [11][21] Group 3: New Operational Strategies - The traditional model of retail management, focused on brand acquisition and event planning, is being replaced by a model that emphasizes content creation and curation [12][21] - Teams managing retail spaces need to adopt a "director" mindset, orchestrating content and experiences rather than simply managing physical space [12][21] - Examples like AREA15 and BOXPARK demonstrate the effectiveness of treating retail spaces as experiential content platforms, where the focus is on creating engaging, shareable experiences [13][15][16] Group 4: Future of Retail Spaces - The future of retail lies in creating a cycle of space, content, and social interaction, where the physical environment fosters relationships and ongoing engagement [23] - Retail spaces should aim to be narrative-driven, focusing on sustained consumer interest rather than one-time events or brand showcases [23] - The ultimate goal is to transform commercial spaces into generators of relationships and experiences, rather than just places to sell products [23]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 7.4%, indicating strong operational performance and growth potential in its shopping center business [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 8.5 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, with the commercial segment contributing 3.27 billion, a 14.6% increase, and the property segment generating 5.16 billion, a 1.1% increase [1]. - Gross profit amounted to 3.17 billion, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 37.1%, up 3.1 percentage points [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.03 billion, representing a 7.4% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Shopping Center Operations - The company operates 120 shopping centers and 27 office buildings, with 4 new shopping centers opened and 6 new high-quality commercial projects signed in H1 2025 [2]. - The retail sales of the shopping centers reached 122 billion, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, while rental income from owners grew by 17.2% to 14.7 billion [2]. - The shopping center business generated 2.26 billion in revenue, up 19.8%, with a gross profit of 1.78 billion, a 30.0% increase, and a gross margin of 78.7%, up 6.2 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Property Management and Value-Added Services - The property management segment's revenue grew by 8.8% to 3.5 billion, despite a decline in value-added services, which saw a 34.6% drop in non-owner income to 220 million [3]. - Owner-related value-added income decreased by 32.7% to 490 million, as the company streamlined operations by divesting less profitable segments [3]. - The total managed area reached 280 million square meters, with a contracted area of 300 million square meters, indicating a significant scale advantage [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Dividends - Operating profit for H1 2025 was 2.63 billion, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, showcasing strong profitability [4]. - The company declared an interim and special dividend totaling 0.881 per share, representing 100% of the core net profit attributable to shareholders, highlighting a generous dividend policy [4]. - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.99 billion, 4.46 billion, and 5.00 billion, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 19, and 17, respectively, indicating attractive investment value [4].

Core Insights - The latest shopping center popularity rankings in Shenzhen reveal stability among established venues while new entrants show strong performance [1] - The overall number of projects on the list remains relatively unchanged since May, but significant shifts in rankings have occurred for certain projects [1] Group 1: Shopping Center Rankings - In the category of super-large malls (≥150,000 m²), the top three are Longhua Yifang Tiandi, Qianhai Yifang City, and MixC, with Wanfeng Coastal City making a return to the list after several months [1] - For large malls (100,000-150,000 m²), KKONE in Futian has claimed the top spot for the first time, while Qianhai Happy Harbor has dropped to second place, and a new shopping center, Luohu Yitian Holiday Plaza, has entered the rankings [1] - In the medium mall category (<100,000 m²), Xinghe WORLD·COCOPark has risen to fifth place, while Raffles Plaza has fallen to eighth, with Xixiang Tianhong Shopping Center and the newly opened iN City Plaza making their debut on the list [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Chain enterprises dominate the rankings, with China Resources MixC leading with four projects, followed by Hongrongyuan Yifang Commercial, Coast Commercial, and others with multiple entries [5] - A total of 94% of the ranked projects are managed by group or large-scale commercial management companies, indicating a strong trend towards consolidation in the market [7] Group 3: District Performance - Futian District leads with 10 projects on the list, while Bao'an follows with 7, together accounting for 57% of the total, highlighting the commercial concentration in these areas [8] - Bao'an District, with a population exceeding 5.3 million, is rapidly becoming a core area for commercial growth, driven by its demographic advantages and urban development strategies [11] Group 4: Commercial Cluster Effects - Shenzhen's long-term planning includes the development of five world-class commercial circles, with the Futian CBD being the densest, featuring multiple popular shopping centers [12] - The Qianhai-Baozhong commercial circle showcases a "multi-point linkage" effect with several shopping centers making the popularity list, enhancing the competitive edge of the western core commercial area [12] Group 5: Operational Insights - The mid-year promotional activities are a key focus for the ranked projects, with top venues employing high-concentration events and targeted customer engagement strategies [15] - New entrants like Luohu Yitian Holiday Plaza and iN City Plaza are leveraging unique cultural events and youth-oriented activities to attract local consumers [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (01209.HK) with a target price of HKD 39.04 [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of approximately HKD 17.043 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.629 billion, up 23.9% year-on-year, while the core net profit attributable to shareholders was about HKD 3.507 billion, increasing by 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 32.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 17.043 billion, with expected growth rates of 15% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027 [4] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 3.629 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 24% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 15% in 2027 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be HKD 1.59 in 2024, increasing to HKD 1.82 in 2025, HKD 2.08 in 2026, and HKD 2.39 in 2027 [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 20 in 2024, decreasing to 14 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at 4 for 2024 and 2025, and drops to 3 in 2026 and 2027 [4] Business Segment Performance - **Shopping Centers**: Revenue from shopping centers reached HKD 4.209 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a gross margin of 72.6%. The retail sales in managed shopping centers grew by 18.7% year-on-year [8] - **Property Management**: The property management segment generated revenue of HKD 10.715 billion, up 11.6% year-on-year, although the overall gross margin slightly decreased to 17.0% [8] - **Office Buildings**: Revenue from office buildings was HKD 2.065 billion, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 34.9% [8] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a 100% payout ratio for core net profit attributable to shareholders for two consecutive years, with total dividends per share reaching HKD 1.536, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on the closing price on March 27 [8]