21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着华尔街担忧关税政策的不确定性和经济冲击，美股在跌跌撞撞中再度走弱。 过去一周，道指累计下跌2.66%，纳指跌2.62%，标普500指数跌1.50%。自美国总统特朗普4月初宣 布"对等关税"以来，标普500指数、道指和纳指全线大跌，美股一度坠入熊市。 嘉盛集团资深分析师Fawad Razaqzada对记者表示，美国三大股指过去一周均收跌，而欧洲股市上涨。 这种差异表明，资金流向显示出偏好欧洲股市的迹象，视其为避险资产。 与此呼应的是，美国银行发布的4月全球基金经理调查显示，4月份基金经理净减配美国股票的比例为 36%，为2023年5月以来的最低水平。在过去两个月的时间里，投资者对美国股票的配置下降了53个百 分点，为有记录以来的最大降幅。 目前华尔街仍处在观望状态，如果关税政策的不确定性持续，美股仍有开启新一轮下行周期的风险。 美联储暂无"紧急救市"打算 据央视新闻报道，4月16日，美联储主席鲍威尔就特朗普贸易政策的通胀效应发出了强烈警告。鲍威尔 表示，特朗普的关税政策"极有可能"刺激通胀暂时上升，警告称这些影响可能会持续很长时间，同时明 确表示不会因市场波动而采取紧急救 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent 2025 GPU Technology Conference (GTC) was seen as a bullish catalyst for Nvidia, but the market reaction was lukewarm despite exciting technological developments and partnerships announced by the semiconductor giant [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Revenue Projections - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the top four cloud hyperscalers have ordered 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs, valued at $140 billion, with overall demand expected to be even higher [5]. - If the demand for Blackwell GPUs is as strong as management suggests, Nvidia's expected revenue for 2025 could significantly exceed the forecast of $204.39 billion [5]. - The company is modeling a normalized compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for sales growth post-2025, driven by a projected $1 trillion total addressable market (TAM) for data centers by 2028 [5]. Group 2: Profit Margins and Financial Metrics - Nvidia's gross margin fell to just above 70% in the last quarter, with expectations of continued decline into the first half of 2025, but management is confident of a rebound to mid-70% levels in the second half of 2025 [6]. - Analysts are closely monitoring this margin trend, while the company maintains a free cash flow (FCF) margin assumption of 40% [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Stock Performance - Despite aggressive revenue forecasts for 2025, the fair value estimate for Nvidia is $94.71 per share, indicating a potential decline of about 21% from current levels [8]. - The long-term risk/reward profile for Nvidia has improved significantly due to a recent 10% drop in stock price, but the valuation still does not meet the 15% investment hurdle rate [8]. - The projected stock price in 2030, based on a 25x P/FCF exit multiple, is approximately $200.56 per share, suggesting a 5.75-year CAGR of about 9.35% [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - A "death cross" has been observed, indicating bearish momentum as the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, suggesting weakening technical momentum [9]. - The stock has been consolidating for over a year, and recent technical indicators suggest a potential drop back to the $100 range or even lower if momentum does not recover [11]. - Despite strong short-term business prospects presented at GTC, Nvidia's stock has failed to gain bullish momentum, and the technical "death cross" signals further weakening [11].