Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather. The current situation has both positive and negative factors, with positive factors including the tight supply of US soybeans with a low inventory-to-sales ratio, and negative factors such as the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous accumulation of domestic oil inventories, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease as it enters the减产 season [2] - **Basis**: The basis is 412, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is a negative factor [2] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is a positive factor [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [3] - **Basis**: The basis is 6, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is a positive factor [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a positive factor [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [4] - **Basis**: The basis is 596, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is a negative factor [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a negative factor [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025 - 12 - 22 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are in a volatile consolidation phase, with a loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply - Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports - Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 - The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% increase month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8124, with a basis of 412, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, and an 11.7% increase year - on - year. It is bearish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract increased. It is bullish - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 7900 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil's fundamental situation. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, so the supply will increase. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8330, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. It is bullish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The short positions of palm oil's main contract decreased. It is bullish - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to the above two oils. Rapeseed oil will enter the production - increase season, so the supply will increase. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9381, with a basis of 637, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. It is bearish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The long positions of rapeseed oil's main contract decreased. It is bearish - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Charts - Supply - related charts include: import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing volume, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand - related charts include: soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Directory Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,240, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 52, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,670, with a basis of 725, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,700 - 9,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Soybean oil inventory [6] - Soybean meal inventory [8] - Oil mill soybean crushing [10] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 78, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,681, with a basis of 731, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positives**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely Negatives**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Entering the subsequent production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 328, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,440, with a basis of 30, indicating a slight premium of the spot price over the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,700, with a basis of 637, indicating a significant premium of the spot price over the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather [5] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - reduction season later, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 360, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous 1.16 million tons, and a 11.7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 48, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9800, with a basis of 604, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have turned to short positions [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - month inventory decreased 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less than expected production cuts. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month, and the subsequent supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, and the basis is 366, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons compared with the previous 1.16 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract are decreasing, which is bullish. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200. [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8600, and the basis is 48, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is neutral. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous 570,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract are increasing, which is bearish. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700. [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two in terms of the MPOB report, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increasing season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9960, and the basis is 613, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous 550,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [4] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the rapeseed oil main contract are increasing, which is bullish. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500. [4] 4. Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View of Different Oils - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price is 8408, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price is 8646, with a basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bullish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price is 9955, with a basis of 649, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-11投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8300，基差300，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-10投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8300，基差316，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 菜籽油 ...