Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8492，基差190，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8500附近区间震荡 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-13投资咨询部 1.基本面：MP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,250, with a basis of 110, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of -78, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,200, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,900 - 10,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] -利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5] Supply - The report mentions the inventory of soybean oil [6], palm oil [17], rapeseed oil [19], and domestic total edible oil [23], as well as the inventory of soybeans [10], rapeseeds [21], and the inventory of soybean meal [8] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and soybean meal [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The supply of beans and oils has increased due to Argentina's tariff policy, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of - 86, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400 [4]. 4. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. - **Demand**: Includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8160，基差96，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。 中美及中 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,450, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,372, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,273, with a basis of 130, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,408, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,318, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,203, with a basis of 135, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. The trading ranges for different oils are as follows: soybean oil Y2601 between 8100 - 8500, palm oil P2601 between 9100 - 9500, and rapeseed oil OI2601 between 9700 - 10100 [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Entering the production season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8408, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9354, with a basis of 24, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short, which is a bearish signal [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9100 - 9500 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10020, with a basis of 127, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate between 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]. Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No specific data or analysis provided, only the topic is mentioned [6]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on August 22 shows a certain trend, and historical inventory data charts are provided [2][7]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [9][10]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Historical data charts are provided [11][12]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [19][20]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [23][24]. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption data charts are provided [13][14]. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption data charts are provided [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,538, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,986, with a basis of 165, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]