Report Overview - Report Date: July 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8414, with a basis of 254, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7950 - 8350 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9048, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9250 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report data is the same as above, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9691, with a basis of 105, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data on July 4 shows a commercial inventory of 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [15][16]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The expected production in South America in the 24/25 USDA report is high. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces the available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and the demand is weak. The additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8304, with a basis of 232, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 will fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8894, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 will fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9581, with a basis of 141, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 will fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]

证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8254，基差260，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝上。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观 层面影响市场。豆油Y2509：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 油脂早报 2025-07-15投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-07-14投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8250，基差264，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysia's palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the production season begins, palm oil supply will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,214, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the future [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,836, with a basis of 198, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,850 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,585, with a basis of 117, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-07-08投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8100，基差206，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝上。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-07-03投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8224，基差252，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-30投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8200，基差198，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-26投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8200，基差216，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8200，基差250，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...