Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a shift aimed at breaking the "deflation spiral," with a focus on the long-term coal price benchmark of 675 RMB/ton as a critical point [1][5] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration has initiated a verification of coal mine production in eight key provinces to ensure stable coal supply [2] - The verification will assess whether coal production in 2024 exceeds announced capacity and if production plans for 2025 are reasonable [2] - A timeline has been set for the verification process, with reports due by August 15, and the National Energy Administration will conduct random checks [2] Group 2: Inventory and Demand-Supply Dynamics - Total coal inventory is projected to increase by approximately 28.34 million tons in 2024, excluding unreported inventories [3] - A different calculation method indicates a total inventory increase of about 92.69 million tons, reflecting a more comprehensive view of supply and demand [3] - By June 2025, domestic coal inventory is expected to decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with prices having rebounded after hitting a low in mid-June [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Adjustments - There is limited room for overproduction at the national level, with a target of approximately 4.8 billion tons of coal production for 2025 [4] - Some regions, particularly Xinjiang and Shaanxi, may face overproduction issues due to high capacity utilization [4] - The policy toolbox is available for temporary capacity adjustments to ensure supply, similar to measures taken in late 2021 [4] Group 4: Price Projections - The coal industry is expected to see a price range of 700-750 RMB/ton for power coal by the end of the year, influenced by policy measures [1][5] - The long-term coal price benchmark of 675 RMB/ton remains a significant focus for market participants [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The target price range for thermal coal at ports is expected to reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year [4][24] - The report emphasizes the need to break the coal-electricity deflation spiral, with a focus on controlling production rates to avoid excessive competition [13][16][25] - The coal supply situation is being closely monitored, with a national coal production target of approximately 4.8 billion tons for 2025 [4][21] Summary by Sections Coal Mine Overproduction Inspection - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal production in eight key provinces to ensure that production does not exceed announced capacities [2][11] - The inspections will assess whether the coal mines' production plans for 2025 exceed the announced capacities by more than 10% [11][12] Inventory Changes - In 2024, the inventory of thermal coal is projected to increase by approximately 28.34 million tons based on major port, pit, and power plant inventories [3][22] - An alternative calculation method suggests that the total inventory increase could be around 92.69 million tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [3][21] Policy Toolbox and Adjustability - The report discusses the potential for policy adjustments to manage coal production and supply, highlighting the importance of maintaining a balance between production and market prices [4][25] - The report notes that while there may not be nationwide overproduction, certain regions may still face issues due to high capacity utilization [21][23] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market has begun to self-correct, with thermal coal prices rebounding after hitting a low in mid-June 2025 [21] - The coal industry's current dynamics suggest that controlling production rates is crucial to avoid a deflationary spiral in coal prices [16][25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal prices has led to regulatory intervention by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, implementing trading limits to curb speculation, resulting in a significant price correction for both coking coal and coke futures [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures experienced a dramatic increase, rising by 333 points or 36% in a week, with trading limits imposed on July 29 to control excessive speculation [2][3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has set daily opening limits for non-futures company members at 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts [2]. - The market sentiment shifted rapidly as speculative trading turned, leading to a strong reaction against previous bullish trends [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Coking coal and coke production data indicate a mixed supply situation, with coking coal inventories at 536 million tons, down 13%, and premium coal inventories at 278.4 million tons, down 18%, marking a nine-month low [3][4]. - Steel mills are maintaining high production levels, with iron water output at over 242 million tons, contributing to increased demand for coking coal despite high prices [2][4]. - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains strong, with downstream purchasing activity increasing, although the pace of procurement for high-priced coal has slowed [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts expect short-term volatility in the market, with the potential for price adjustments following the recent rapid increases [5][6]. - The focus is shifting from speculative trading to fundamental supply and demand dynamics, as the market adjusts to regulatory measures and the impact of production checks on coal mines [6]. - The current trading environment is characterized by intense competition, with expectations of price corrections in the near term as market participants await new driving factors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy from the National Energy Administration aims to regulate coal production, with expectations of reduced output in the future, impacting coal prices and production levels in the industry [2][3][6]. Production Regulation - The policy focuses on coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, with a specific emphasis on monitoring production against announced capacities for 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2]. - The notification is a reiteration of previous standards established in 2021, indicating a long-term regulatory approach rather than a new initiative [2]. - Current data shows that there has not been widespread overproduction at the provincial level, although individual companies may still exhibit imbalances [2][4]. - The enforcement of this policy will be closely monitored, particularly as it relates to the responsibilities of safety supervision agencies [5]. Production Impact - Current estimates suggest that overproduction in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang could reach approximately 200 million tons, with a significant portion attributed to Xinjiang [6]. - The coal production growth rate from July 2024 to June 2025 is projected at 4.8%, indicating a high production level even without considering overproduction management [6]. Price Trends - Since June, there has been a recovery in coal prices, with thermal coal and coking coal prices increasing by approximately 6% and 17%, respectively [7]. - Factors contributing to the price increase include seasonal demand, inventory replenishment in the steel sector, a significant drop in imports, and a slowdown in production growth [8]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to shift from a loose state to a tighter one in the second half of the year [9]. Industry Outlook - The coal sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery due to changing expectations, with a focus on companies that exhibit high elasticity and low valuations [10]. - The current regulatory approach differs from past supply-side reforms, suggesting a more measured strategy that allows for gradual adjustments in the coal industry [10]. Key Companies - Relevant companies in the coal industry include China Coal Energy (601898), Yancoal Australia (03668), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), China Shenhua Energy (601088), and China Qinfa (00866) [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the coal sector following a favorable policy announcement aimed at stabilizing coal supply [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 22, a favorable policy was announced, leading to a surge in the coal sector, with many stocks hitting the daily limit [3]. - The market experienced fluctuations but ultimately closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.84%, and the ChiNext by 0.61% [9]. - A total of 2,540 stocks rose, with 112 stocks hitting the daily limit, while 2,724 stocks declined [10][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate coal production, mandating that annual coal output does not exceed announced capacity and monthly output does not exceed 10% of the announced capacity [3]. - This policy is likened to previous supply-side reforms, which significantly influenced coal prices and market performance [7]. - Historical data shows that coal prices have dropped from a peak of 1,202 CNY/ton in 2021 to 658 CNY/ton, a decrease of 45.3% [7]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts from Zheshang Securities suggest that the "anti-involution" policy could reverse the coal industry's challenges, similar to past supply-side reforms that led to significant price recoveries [7]. - Long-term coal price improvements are anticipated if demand-side improvements follow, particularly with potential interest rate cuts and domestic stimulus [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to rise due to high steel mill profits, which are correlated with increased production and operational rates [8].