Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian oil company (NIS), which is under U.S. sanctions, are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the support of the Serbian government [1] Group 1: Sanctions and Control Transfer - The Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy, Hadanovic, announced the willingness of Russian shareholders to transfer control of NIS to a third party [1] - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions during negotiations with a third party [1] - The Serbian government supports the request for postponement of sanctions [1] Group 2: Background on Sanctions - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies [1] - The U.S. has postponed the effective date of sanctions on NIS eight times to date [1] - The ownership structure of NIS has changed multiple times during the postponement period [1]

Core Viewpoint - India and Japan continue to import Russian energy despite pressure from the U.S., highlighting a shift in global dynamics where national interests take precedence over alliances [1][22]. Group 1: India's Energy Imports - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, benefiting from discounts of $8-10 per barrel compared to international prices [5]. - In the first nine months of 2025, India is expected to import 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for 35%-40% of its total imports, saving $8.5 billion in the first half of the year alone [5][7]. - A halt in Russian oil imports could increase India's annual energy costs by $17 billion, exacerbating trade deficits and potentially triggering inflation, which poses a risk to its economic growth [7][20]. Group 2: Japan's Energy Dependence - Japan's reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is profound, with nearly 9% of its total imports coming from Russia and 29% of its electricity generation relying on Russian LNG [7][9]. - Japanese companies hold stakes in the Sakhalin-2 project, which will continue supplying gas until at least 2028, complicating any potential shift away from Russian energy [9]. - The Japanese government, under Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, is cautious about increasing domestic energy prices, which could destabilize its political standing [9][20]. Group 3: Diplomatic Strategies - Both India and Japan employ a strategy of "soft compliance and hard lines," skillfully navigating U.S. pressures while maintaining their energy imports [11][16]. - India's approach includes avoiding direct discussions with U.S. officials regarding Russian oil, while Japan's strategy involves appeasing the U.S. through defense spending and cooperation in various sectors [12][16]. - The U.S. sanctions are losing effectiveness as countries prioritize their national interests over compliance with U.S. demands, reflecting a broader trend in international relations [18][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Core Points - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian crude oil following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [1][2] - Reliance was a major buyer of Russian crude, importing approximately 630,000 barrels per day in September, which constituted about one-third of India's total crude imports [1] - Other Indian refiners, including state-owned companies, are also reviewing their Russian oil trade to comply with U.S. sanctions, indicating a potential significant reduction in imports [2] Group 1 - Reliance Industries will adjust refinery operations to meet compliance requirements while maintaining supplier relationships [1] - The share of Russian crude in India's total imports has increased from less than 3% to approximately one-third [1] - The combined supply from Russian oil companies accounted for about 60% of India's Russian oil purchases [2] Group 2 - The shift away from Russian oil may lead to increased crude import costs for India, despite the possibility of sourcing from the Middle East and other regions [2] - Analysts suggest that while technical adjustments in refineries are feasible, the primary concern is the pressure on refining profit margins [2] - The cessation of Russian oil purchases may enhance the likelihood of India reaching a trade agreement with the U.S., which has been a critical point in trade negotiations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sanctions imposed by the United States on Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting the escalating tensions between these countries and the U.S. regarding drug trafficking and military presence in the Caribbean region [3][4][6][9]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Responses - The U.S. announced sanctions against President Petro and his family, citing anti-drug laws, which will freeze their assets and financial services in the U.S. [6] - President Petro condemned the sanctions as a "paradox," emphasizing Colombia's efforts in combating drug trafficking and expressing his determination to defend the rights of the Colombian people against U.S. actions [5][6]. - The Colombian Foreign Ministry strongly criticized the sanctions as "unfounded," noting the deterioration of U.S.-Colombia relations, which were once characterized by strong alliance [7]. Group 2: Venezuelan Stance - President Maduro accused the U.S. of "manufacturing a new war" and stated that Venezuela would strive to prevent such conflicts, advocating for peace and harmony in the region [9]. - Maduro highlighted that the U.S. is using military threats and fabricated stories to undermine Venezuela, despite reports indicating that Venezuela is not a major source of drugs entering the U.S. [9]. - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Caribbean under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, which Maduro claims is a tactic for regime change in Venezuela [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against Colombian President Petro and his family, as well as Interior Minister Armando Benedetti [1] - Following the sanctions, Colombian banks began freezing the bank accounts of President Petro and others involved [1] - President Petro condemned the U.S. actions and stated that he would never yield to such measures [1]

Core Points - Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić rejected the suggestion to nationalize the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS) to evade U.S. sanctions, calling the idea "unacceptable" [4][6] - The Serbian government holds a minority stake in NIS, while the majority is owned by a Russian company [6] - U.S. sanctions against NIS came into full effect earlier this month, which Vučić stated would have severe impacts on the country [6] Group 1 - Vučić stated that he was approached by the U.S. to nationalize NIS as a means to circumvent sanctions [6] - The President emphasized that Serbia does not support the appropriation of others' funds and property [6] - Vučić described the U.S. sanctions as "bad news" for Serbia, indicating significant negative consequences for the nation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for fuel oil shows mixed performance, with a downward trend observed in fuel oil prices, influenced by international oil price fluctuations and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Fuel oil futures opened at 2765.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a high of 2770.00 CNY and a low of 2712.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of 2.58% [1] - The overall market performance for fuel oil is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its supply forecast for the year, indicating that the increase in supply outpaces demand, leading to a greater market surplus [1] - Concerns regarding the supply side are highlighted, with a focus on high sulfur fuel oil, despite a decrease in Russian exports, as Singapore's inventory reaches record highs [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Companies are advised to adopt strategies combining high-position short selling and out-of-the-money call options due to limited rebound potential in the market [1] - Continuous monitoring of geopolitical conflicts and U.S. sanctions is recommended, as these factors could influence fuel oil prices [1] - The market remains attentive to the ample supply of fuel oil, with strategies suggested to exploit the price differential between high and low sulfur fuel oil [1]

Core Viewpoint - India is not only continuing to purchase Russian oil but plans to increase imports by 10% to 20% in September compared to August, despite U.S. sanctions [1][3]. Group 1: India's Oil Import Strategy - The increase in oil imports translates to an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day [3]. - India's largest buyers of Russian oil have remained silent on the decision to increase purchases, but recent attitudes suggest a strong likelihood of continued imports [5]. - The decision to increase imports is driven by economic benefits, as Russian oil offers significant price advantages during Western sanctions [8]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Political Dynamics - The U.S. recently imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff on Indian imports of Russian oil to 50% [3][10]. - Trump's strategy aimed to pressure India into compliance regarding Russian oil imports, but India has chosen to defy this pressure [6][10]. - The U.S. intervention is viewed as a form of domestic interference, highlighting a display of hegemonic behavior [12]. Group 3: Market Implications - The EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting September 2, which is 15% below market price, further complicating the dynamics of oil imports [8]. - India's actions may undermine U.S. influence and demonstrate a rejection of external pressures, potentially impacting future geopolitical relations [10][12].

Group 1 - Wang Yi's visit to India signifies a potential strengthening of Sino-Indian relations, which could have a profound impact on the global landscape given the combined population of nearly three billion [1][4] - The timing of Wang Yi's visit aligns with Modi's upcoming visit to China, indicating a thaw in the historically tense relations between the two nations [4][11] - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Indian imports, particularly targeting products related to India's dealings with Russia, which could severely impact India's manufacturing sector [7][11] Group 2 - India's GDP growth rate fell to 4.2% in the second quarter, the lowest in three years, prompting the Modi government to seek closer ties with China as a potential solution [11][22] - A series of ten agreements were reached during Wang Yi's visit, including the establishment of expert groups for border management, indicating a shift towards regular communication and conflict resolution [14][20] - Practical measures to build trust were introduced, such as reopening traditional trade markets and sharing hydrological information, which will benefit local communities on both sides of the border [17][20] Group 3 - The strategic positioning of the Sino-Indian border issue was clarified, emphasizing that it should not hinder overall bilateral relations, with a focus on a comprehensive solution based on the 2005 political guidelines [20][24] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent highlighted a fundamental difference in the U.S. stance towards India's and China's oil purchases from Russia, suggesting that India's actions are viewed as more opportunistic [24][31] - India's oil imports from Russia surged from 1% to 42% in recent years, with significant profits being made from refining and reselling this oil to Europe, raising concerns in the U.S. [31][33]