Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the currency market for the first time in 2023 to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar, which triggered the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" at 7.85 HKD per USD [1] Currency Mechanism - The Hong Kong dollar operates under a linked exchange rate system established in 1983, with a normal fluctuation range between 7.75 (strong-side guarantee) and 7.85 (weak-side guarantee) [1] - When the exchange rate hits the "strong-side guarantee," the HKMA buys USD and sells HKD to stabilize the rate at or below 7.75 [1] - Conversely, when the "weak-side guarantee" is triggered, the HKMA sells USD and buys HKD to maintain the rate at or above 7.85 [1] Market Intervention - On June 26, the HKMA bought a total of 9.42 billion HKD to stabilize the currency, resulting in a reduction of the banking system's aggregate balance to 164.098 billion HKD by June 27 [1] - In early May, the Hong Kong dollar was strong, triggering the "strong-side guarantee" four times, leading the HKMA to inject approximately 129 billion HKD into the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is actively intervening in the foreign exchange market to defend the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) against depreciation, as it has reached the weak end of its peg against the US dollar. Group 1: HKMA Interventions - On August 6, the HKMA bought HKD 84.39 billion and sold USD to maintain the HKD's value, marking the fourth intervention in seven days [1] - Cumulatively, the HKMA has withdrawn HKD 223.26 billion from the market since July 31 to keep the HKD within the range of 7.75 to 7.85 against the USD [1] Group 2: Currency Peg Mechanism - The HKD operates under a linked exchange rate system since 1983, with a normal fluctuation range between 7.75 (strong-side convertibility) and 7.85 (weak-side convertibility) [1] - If the HKD hits the strong-side, the HKMA buys USD and sells HKD; conversely, if it hits the weak-side, the HKMA sells USD and buys HKD to stabilize the currency [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Influences - The HKD has faced downward pressure due to a persistent interest rate differential between HKD and USD, leading to increased carry trade activities [2] - Since June, the HKMA has bought HKD 1,095.29 billion in response to the weakening of the HKD, which was initially strong in May [2] - The HKMA noted that reduced demand for HKD has led to carry trades, triggering multiple instances of the weak-side convertibility [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - An independent analyst predicts that the HKD's weakness may continue until the HKD interbank rates rise above 2%, indicating that the current "currency defense battle" may persist [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the foreign exchange market on August 6, buying HKD 8.439 billion to defend the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar as it approached the weak end of the trading band at 7.85 [1] - Since the beginning of June, the HKMA has intervened 10 times, buying a total of HKD 109.529 billion to stabilize the currency after it shifted from a strong to a weak position [2] - The HKMA's actions are part of a long-standing currency peg system established in 1983, which allows the Hong Kong dollar to fluctuate between 7.75 and 7.85 against the US dollar [1][2] Group 2 - The recent weakness of the Hong Kong dollar is attributed to two main pressures: low interbank rates encouraging carry trades and a rising US dollar index since early July [2] - The HKMA noted that while liquidity has decreased, leading to a mild rise in interbank rates, they remain significantly lower than US rates, which continues to exert pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [2] - Analyst Lu Churen predicts that the weakness of the Hong Kong dollar may persist until the interbank rates rise above 2%, indicating that the current "currency defense battle" may continue until then [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the currency market by selling US dollars and buying Hong Kong dollars, as the HKD exchange rate triggered the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD during the New York trading session [1] Group 1: Currency Intervention - The HKMA sold approximately 8.439 billion HKD to buy HKD, which will reduce the banking system's aggregate balance to 64.062 billion HKD by August 8 [1] - Since June 26, the HKMA has intervened in the market to buy HKD a total of 10 times [1] Group 2: Currency Peg Mechanism - The currency peg system, implemented since 1983, allows the HKD to fluctuate within a normal range of 7.75 (strong end) to 7.85 (weak end) against the USD [1] - If the HKD triggers the strong end of the peg, the HKMA will buy USD and sell HKD; conversely, if it triggers the weak end, the HKMA will sell USD and buy HKD [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market for the third time in a week due to the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) hitting the weak end of its peg at 7.85 against the US dollar, buying HKD 64.29 billion and selling USD [1] - The HKMA's actions are aimed at maintaining the HKD within the 7.75-7.85 range, with the banking system's liquidity expected to drop to HKD 72.461 billion following the intervention [1][7] - The continuous pressure on the HKD is attributed to a combination of low interest rates and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [2][4] Group 2 - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US has created an environment where investors are shorting the HKD to capitalize on the interest rate spread, leading to further depreciation of the currency [2] - Recent data indicates significant capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market, with a notable increase in selling activity, particularly in healthcare, consumer, and real estate sectors [3][4] - The ongoing capital outflows exacerbate the demand for HKD, contributing to the depreciation pressure [4] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the duration of the HKMA's intervention will depend on the Federal Reserve's actions and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [6] - If the US Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts due to weak employment data, the pressure on the HKD may ease as the interest rate differential narrows [6] - The situation reflects broader trends in emerging markets, with other currencies like the Indian Rupee also facing depreciation pressures due to external factors [6] Group 4 - The HKMA's interventions aim to stabilize HKD assets for ordinary citizens, but long-term attention is needed on interest rate differentials and capital flows [7] - While interventions may tighten liquidity and theoretically increase interest rates, the fragile state of the Hong Kong economy suggests that rates will remain low for the time being [8] - Investors in HKD assets should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policies and capital flows in the Hong Kong stock market, as ongoing high interest rate differentials and capital outflows may lead to continued volatility [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by purchasing HKD 64.29 billion (approximately USD 8.19 billion) to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, following previous interventions in late July and early August [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The HKMA's recent market intervention is part of a series of actions since June aimed at curbing the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, which has been pressured by significant interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and the US [4][5]. - In total, the HKMA has withdrawn HKD 138.9 billion from the market through currency purchases over the past week to keep the exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital outflows reached approximately HKD 181 billion on Monday, marking the largest single-day net outflow since May 12, which has intensified downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [1][4]. - Seasonal demand reduction and the outflow of southbound funds are contributing to the prevailing selling pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, as noted by DBS Bank's strategist Carie Li [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent US employment data has led to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could alleviate some pressure on the HKMA if the interest rate differential narrows [5]. - The ongoing arbitrage trading driven by the interest rate gap is expected to remain active, with further interventions from the HKMA likely in the future [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has activated the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" at 7.85, indicating a significant shift in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate dynamics due to various market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The HKMA bought 39.25 billion HKD on July 31, reducing the banking system's balance to 82.55 billion HKD on August 1 [1]. - The last activation of the 7.85 weak-side guarantee occurred on July 16, involving 14.83 billion HKD [1]. - Since June, the HKMA has intervened in the market seven times, absorbing a total of 911.08 billion HKD, which is 70% of the hot money inflow in May [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Market Conditions - The HKMA's president, Yu Weiwen, indicated that multiple factors have contributed to the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, including ample liquidity in the market leading to lower local interest rates and an expanded interest rate differential with the U.S. [1][2]. - There is a potential for the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" to be triggered again, as the banking system's balance decreases and local interest rates may rise, aligning with the design of the linked exchange rate system [2]. Group 3: Market Demand for HKD - The peak period for dividend payouts by listed companies is nearing its end, which may reduce demand for HKD [3]. - Non-local companies are expected to convert HKD raised from IPOs or bond issuances back to their home currencies [3]. - The demand for HKD related to half-year settlements has largely been met, leading to a decrease in market demand for the currency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is actively managing liquidity to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) under the linked exchange rate system, with recent fluctuations in demand for HKD leading to interventions to uphold the currency's value [1][4]. Group 1: HKD Demand and Supply Dynamics - In May and June, there was a strong demand for HKD, but this demand decreased by late June and early July due to several factors, including the end of the dividend season for listed companies and the repatriation of funds by non-local companies from IPOs or bond issuances [2][4]. - The HKMA has intervened multiple times to withdraw liquidity, with a total of at least 590.72 billion HKD being bought back since late June [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Sensitivity - The overnight interbank lending rates are becoming more sensitive to changes in market liquidity, with expectations that these rates may rise in the future [1][8]. - The interest rate spread between HKD and USD has widened significantly, with the overnight HKD rate dropping to 0.03% by the end of May, while the USD rate remained around 4.35%, resulting in a spread of 4.32 percentage points [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The HKMA warns that the potential for HKD interest rates to rise should be anticipated, especially as liquidity conditions change and external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and global financial market trends evolve [9]. - The HKMA will continue to monitor financial market changes closely and maintain the effectiveness of the linked exchange rate system to ensure monetary and financial stability in Hong Kong [9].

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity changes in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) are a response to market dynamics and have significant implications for the Hong Kong stock market, with the fundamental economic conditions being a more critical factor than liquidity itself [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Changes - On June 26, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold US dollars and bought HKD to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate hitting the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD [1]. - On July 2, HKMA further withdrew 20.018 billion HKD from the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [1]. - The HKD is pegged to the USD, and the HKMA's actions are part of a system that maintains the exchange rate within a specified range, responding to market demand for HKD [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent liquidity withdrawal is a dynamic balance following excessive HKD liquidity injected in early May, which led to a significant increase in interbank liquidity from 44.6 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD [2]. - The overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) remained low at around 0.5% for two months, indicating a misjudgment in the demand for HKD by the banking system [2]. - The rapid expansion of the USD-HKD interest rate differential has led to increased carry trade activities, causing the HKD to touch the weak end of the peg within a month [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HKD liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals rather than liquidity levels [3]. - The current high interest rate differential of 3%-4% between USD and HKD is unlikely to persist, suggesting a gradual recovery of HKD liquidity and a rise in Hibor rates [3]. - The demand for HKD is expected to increase due to a weaker USD, inflows from the southbound trading, and a surge in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a positive outlook for the HKD liquidity situation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market due to the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) reaching the weak end of its peg against the US dollar, leading to significant market reactions and liquidity changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - On July 4, 2025, HKMA bought HKD 29.634 billion in a single day, marking the largest intervention since 2017, as the HKD hit the weak end of the peg at 7.85 [1][2]. - Over two weeks, HKMA's total purchases reached HKD 590.72 billion, reducing the banking system's aggregate balance to HKD 1,145.41 billion [1][2]. - The rapid switch from strong to weak peg within two months is attributed to multiple factors, including widening interest rate differentials and seasonal liquidity demands [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The interest rate differential between HKD and USD has widened significantly, with the overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) at 0.02982% compared to the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) at 4.4%, creating a 4.37 percentage point gap [5]. - The demand for HKD has decreased due to the end of the dividend season and reduced funding needs, contributing to the currency's weakness [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the HKD may continue to face pressure towards the weak end of the peg, especially if the interest rate differential remains large and arbitrage trading persists [8][10]. - However, there are expectations that the HKD's volatility will have a diminishing impact on the Hong Kong stock market in the medium to long term, as liquidity conditions stabilize and investor sentiment improves [12].