Core Viewpoint - The recent actions of the United States in the energy market indicate a shift in the global energy landscape, with a focus on controlling key resources as a strategic tool in international competition [1] Group 1: U.S. Actions and Global Energy Dynamics - The U.S. has intervened in Venezuela's oil sector and is now focusing on Iran, suggesting that the true objective may extend beyond these countries [1] - Venezuela exports over 740,000 barrels of oil daily to China, highlighting the importance of this supply chain for both nations [1] - The U.S. aims to exert pressure on this supply chain to influence the global energy supply structure [1] Group 2: Canada’s Position and Market Reactions - Canada, in contrast to the U.S., is seeking to deepen energy cooperation with China, indicating a divergence in strategies among traditional allies [3] - Canada possesses significant oil sands resources that can serve as substitutes for Venezuelan oil, complicating the effectiveness of U.S. supply restrictions [3] Group 3: Middle East and Iran's Resilience - Iran holds a crucial position in the international energy landscape and is expected to face increased pressure from the U.S. following Venezuela [5] - The complexity of the Middle East means that any instability could rapidly affect global energy markets, and Iran has developed resilient trade networks under long-term sanctions [5][6] Group 4: Global Energy Security and Market Dynamics - Energy security has evolved into a complex ecosystem rather than a simple game of blockade and counter-blockade, with countries diversifying their energy imports [8] - The U.S. strategy of controlling key resources faces challenges as other suppliers fill gaps and major consuming countries optimize their supply chains [8][10] - The principle of supply following demand remains fundamental, with the largest energy consumer markets exerting strong attraction for resource countries and traders [10] Group 5: Lessons from Current Energy Geopolitics - The ongoing energy competition illustrates that traditional control and blockade strategies may not be effective in the modern interdependent world [12] - True energy security requires a broad and resilient energy network to withstand fluctuations in any single supply node [12]

据能源咨询机构伍德麦肯兹1月8日透露的敏感数据, 美国墨菲石油在越南九龙盆地海苏旺油田刺穿了地层，探明储量高达 4.3亿桶油当量。 这并不只是一回简单的地质勘探成功, 而是华盛顿向河内扔出的一根带刺的救命绳，在越南原油日产量从2005年的36.5万 桶断崖式降到2025年不到12万桶的崩盘前，这个发现正好卡着越南能源安全最薄弱的地方。 别光盯着那4.3亿桶的数字高兴，得看看背后的控制权，越南国家石油公司的上游勘探能力早就到极限了，现有的老旧油 田含水率迅速上升，开采成本都快靠近布伦特原油的盈亏平衡线，这时候, 墨菲石油出现，其实就是美国资本对越南能源 供应链进行的一回"技术性接管。 这笔账算得特别精明，2045年要实现工业化的越南，它的制造业对能源特别需要，已经使得电力供应常常出问题而熔 断，当三星和富士康的流水线因为没电停工的时候, 河内没有别的办法，只能够接受美国人给出的合同。 一位驻休斯顿的资深能源策略师私下跟我讲道, 「在南海这个棋盘上，墨菲石油所钻的不是井，而是地缘政治的桩，要是 越南的能源命脉掌控在美国公司手里，他们在外交谈判桌上的筹码就会自己变少」 这不只是商业开发，而是在用E&P（勘探与生产） ...

2026年1月10日，全球目睹了一场令人震惊的事件，乌克兰利沃夫市遭到了俄罗斯军队的猛烈打击。此次袭击使用的是著名的"榛树"高超音速中程弹道导 弹。令人意外的是，这枚导弹并未携带爆炸弹头，而是凭借其极高的速度和巨大的动能，对目标造成了毁灭性的伤害。 攻击的目标是位于乌克兰西部、至关重要的斯特雷地下天然气储存基地。这一设施的设计容量为170.5亿立方米，占据乌克兰所有储气库总容量的一半以 上。近年来，随着乌克兰与欧盟国家的紧密合作，该地区储存的大量天然气成为了欧洲能源安全的重要支柱。德国和罗马尼亚等国在此储存了从美国进口的 天然气，以备即将到来的冬季供暖需求。 尽管俄军的这次"精准袭击"未造成明显爆炸，但却对整个储气库造成了不可逆转的损失。报道显示，由于"榛树"导弹的高速撞击，库房内天然气大量泄漏， 为乌克兰及其欧洲邻国带来了巨大的经济冲击和不安。从某种程度来看，这不仅是一次军事行动，更是一场深刻影响国际关系和全球能源市场的政治博弈。 此次袭击的背景愈加复杂。不久前，乌克兰无人机袭击普京官邸的消息引发了俄罗斯的强烈反应。在这样的情况下，利用高超音速武器打击关键基础设施， 显然是一种富有象征性的反击。正如俄罗斯所 ...

最近国际能源圈被一条消息刷屏了：因为美国的海上封锁导致运输成本飙升，委内瑞拉想把卖给中国的原油价格悄悄提一点，每桶的优惠从原来的15美元缩 水到13美元。 说白了，就是想让我们多掏2美元来帮它分担风险。 结果你猜怎么着？ 中国的买家们非常干脆，直接回复：太贵了，不买了。 这一下，可把很多等着看戏的西方观察家给整不会了。 在他们过去的剧本里，中 国为了地缘政治和能源安全，肯定会咬牙接下这个"烫手山芋"。 但现实是，中国用最市场化的方式，把美国的算盘摔了个粉碎。 需求减弱了，供应商却还想涨价，这生意就没法做了。 更重要的是，在美国的严厉封锁下，从委内瑞拉运油的风险急剧升高。 油轮可能要绕远路，运费涨 了；船只还有被扣押的风险，保险费也涨了。 中国买家敢这么硬气地说"不"，第一个底气，就来自家里实实在在的"余粮"。 根据国际权威数据公司克普勒的监测，目前在中国南海和马来西亚附近的海 域，停泊着大量装满原油的超级油轮，它们就像一个个漂浮在海上的巨型移动仓库。 这些"海上浮仓"里装的原油，总量高达8200万桶。 8200万桶是个什么概念？ 这差不多是全球一天多的原油消费量，也相当于一个中型产油国好几个月的总产量。 这还 ...

本文结合了权威资料和个人观点，探讨了印度与美国的贸易关系，尤其是美国加征关税对印度的影响。从中国的立场来看，印度在此过程中终于领悟到西方 规则从来就不可能对伙伴友好。 2025年8月，美国决定对印度的多种出口商品加征25%的关税。这一举措并非临时决策，而是已经通过了正式的程序。实际上，印度面临的关税税率已经飙 升至50%。对印度来说，这一措施虽然来得较晚，但却是一次沉重的现实打击。美国对印度加征关税的表面理由是贸易失衡和市场准入问题，然而印度的官 员私下里心知肚明，这背后其实反映了美印战略关系的变化。印度并未完全按照美国的期望行事，尤其在能源政策和与俄罗斯的关系上，已经触及了美国的 底线。 自从俄乌冲突爆发后，全球能源格局发生了剧变。欧洲优先保障了传统能源供应，而亚洲则不得不寻找其他途径。此时，印度开始大量进口俄罗斯石油，主 要原因是其价格较低且供应稳定，有助于缓解国内的通货膨胀。印度政府一再强调，进口俄罗斯石油只是经济决策，而非政治立场的体现。印度能源部公开 声明，能源安全关系到数亿民众的基本生活，不能因外界的政治压力而影响国内稳定。印度一直认为，外界对其提供战争援助的指责毫无依据。 然而到了2025年，美 ...

不准7个主要买家再去买俄罗斯的油，美方还打算，要 用立法的方式约束这七个国家，特朗普十分直白，要加大对俄罗斯的制裁力度，尤其是重点强调了， 不能再买俄罗斯石油。 这些订单要重新排队， 优先权当然在美国手里，全球能源大客户里，中方稳坐前排，这笔总账怎么算，绝对不是特朗普一句制裁威胁能解决的事，这七个 被美国提醒不准买油的国家有哪些？ 特朗普新禁令，全球能源要美国说了算？ 在这场没有硝烟的全球能源暗战中，特朗普的攻势来得格外迅猛，也格外露骨，不再满足于过去的行政令或口头威胁， 白宫这次直接拿出了"立法"这一重 型武器，意图构建一道铁幕。 目光所及之处，并非克里姆林宫的高墙，而是那些正在为俄罗斯经济输血的"生命线"，包括 中国、印度、巴西在内的七个主要原油进口国。 这就好比两国交战，一方突然发现对手粮草不绝，索性不再纠结于正面战场的冲杀，转而要去要 把给对手送饭的人全部打断腿。 美国这次的逻辑非常简单粗暴，只要掐断了终端买家，俄罗斯地下的黑金就会变成无人问津的废土，数据明晃晃地摆在那里，仅仅是 中国和印度两家，就 吞吐了俄罗斯出口原油近九成的体量。 前言 对于特朗普而言，与其费劲去封锁漫长的俄罗斯边境线，不如直接拿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is undergoing a systematic upgrade driven by both policy and market forces, focusing on clean, efficient, and intelligent utilization in alignment with national "dual carbon" goals and energy security [1][10]. Policy and Regulatory Framework - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released the "Benchmark Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)," which aims to guide enterprises in upgrading coal utilization and eliminating outdated capacities [1][4]. - The policy emphasizes the need for a transition from quantity growth to quality improvement, promoting the development of coal as a clean and high-value product [1][2]. Industry Transformation Directions - The coal industry's transformation is centered around three core directions: clean utilization, intelligent technology, and high efficiency [1][10]. - The approach of "replacing advanced capacity with outdated capacity" signifies a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement through technological and institutional innovation [2][3]. Regional Strategies - Different coal-producing provinces are implementing tailored strategies for transformation. Shanxi aims to transition from a coal province to an "energy strong province," while Shaanxi focuses on high-end coal chemical and circular economy development [5][8]. - Shanxi has successfully reduced the number of coal mines and stabilized its coal production capacity at 1.465 billion tons per year, while Shaanxi is categorizing and addressing low-efficiency capacities [7][8]. Clean and Efficient Utilization - The clean and efficient utilization of coal is seen as essential for the industry's survival and development, with policies being implemented to ensure compliance with environmental standards [10][14]. - The integration of coal with renewable energy sources is highlighted as a complementary strategy to enhance energy security and stability [13][14]. Technological Advancements - The industry is increasingly adopting intelligent technologies to improve operational efficiency and safety, with provinces like Shanxi and Shaanxi leading in smart coal mining initiatives [11][12]. - The establishment of industrial internet platforms and the promotion of digital transformation are key components of the industry's modernization efforts [11]. Economic Role of Coal - Coal is expected to transition from a mere energy supplier to a stabilizer and regulator in the national economy, supporting the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources [14]. - The value of coal in a green economic growth model will be realized through its foundational role in low-carbon industrial chains, such as coal chemical and new materials [14].

全球能源大客户里，中方稳坐前排，这笔总账怎么算，绝对不是特朗普一句制裁威胁能解决的事。 这七个被美国提醒不准买油的国家有哪些？为什么特朗普突然在这个时候加大了对俄罗斯的制裁呢？ 不准7个主要买家再去买俄罗斯的油，美方还打算，要用立法的方式约束这七个国家。 特朗普十分直白，要加大对俄罗斯的制裁力度，尤其是重点强调了，不能再买俄罗斯石油。 这些订单要重新排队，优先权当然在美国手里。 日前，特朗普在对俄政策上狠狠踩了一脚油门。以前是各种行政命令、金融制裁，现在直接走立法路线，把针对俄罗斯的新一轮打压写进法案里。 这一次，目标并不局限在莫斯科，而是直指那些还大规模买俄石油的国家，其中就包括中国、印度、巴西在内的7个关键买家。 这一招的狠，首先体现在打的是"终端市场"。俄罗斯的外汇命脉很清楚，石油和天然气出口撑起了很大一块。 战后的制裁一轮一轮打下来，欧洲市场被切得差不多了，俄罗斯转头把重心放在亚洲和全球南方国家身上。 中国吸收了接近一半的俄出口石油，印度吃掉了大约四成，再加上几家中东、拉美和亚洲买家，构成了目前俄罗斯石油出口的主要支撑面。 特朗普认为，如果能逼这7国减少甚至转向，那俄罗斯的现金流就会遭遇真正的"断血" ...

Core Insights - The World Economic Forum's "2026 Global Cooperation Index" indicates a shift towards trade and technology cooperation among like-minded countries, while peace and security cooperation has significantly declined [1] Trade and Capital - Overall cooperation in trade and capital remains above the 2019 baseline, but structural changes are profound; global goods trade continues to grow, yet at a slower pace than global economic development [3] - Trade flows are increasingly concentrating among like-minded partners, with many countries forming smaller alliances due to rising barriers in the multilateral trade system [3] Innovation and Technology - Cooperation in innovation and technology is strengthening despite tightening technology controls, leading to new development momentum [3] - There has been a significant increase in information technology services and talent mobility, with international bandwidth capacity expanding fourfold compared to pre-pandemic levels [3] - Restrictions on the flow of key resources, technologies, and knowledge are increasing, while new cooperation models are emerging, particularly in cutting-edge technologies like AI and 5G infrastructure among aligned nations [3] Climate and Natural Capital - Progress in climate and natural capital cooperation has been made, but it still falls short of global expectations [3] - The deployment of clean technologies reached a historical high in 2025, driven by expanded financing and global supply chain collaboration [3] - China contributed two-thirds of the new capacity in solar, wind, and electric vehicles, with other developing economies accelerating their efforts [3] Health and Wellness - Cooperation in health and wellness remains stable, showing resilience, but the global health assistance system faces significant pressure [4] - The overall level of health cooperation has not declined, partly due to ongoing improvements in health indicators post-pandemic [4] - However, the pressure on multilateral institutions has led to a blockage in health support funding, significantly reducing development aid, which poses severe challenges for low- and middle-income countries [4] Peace and Security - Cooperation in peace and security is continuously shrinking, with all monitored indicators below pre-pandemic levels [4] - Escalating conflict situations and rising military expenditures are evident, while global multilateral mediation mechanisms struggle to alleviate crises [4] - By the end of 2024, the number of forcibly displaced persons is projected to reach 123 million, a historical high, prompting new cooperation dynamics through regional peacekeeping mechanisms [4]

焦煤焦炭年报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 双焦供需趋稳 政策约束下的区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 ⚫ 焦煤端：预计2026年国内产量将趋于平稳。在"反 内卷、查超产"政策及能源安全约束下，行业产 能有序释放，预计总产量与2025年持平。 ⚫ 焦炭端：2026年焦化行业产能过剩格局预计难以 根本扭转，供应弹性依然较大，行业利润将继续 窄幅波动，缺乏大幅改善空间。焦炭产量将主要 跟随下游铁水需求及焦煤成本节奏变动，预计全 年产量与2025年持平。 ⚫ 钢厂端：钢铁终端需求预计2026年整体持平，缺 乏显著增量。房地产用钢需求继续 ...