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对华关税或降至50%,“关税闹剧”出现转折点?
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-24 00:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive signals from the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and a shift in U.S. policy towards a more favorable stance on tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the current trade conflict with China is unsustainable, suggesting a possible easing of tensions [3]. - The Trump administration is considering a tiered tariff system, imposing 35% tariffs on goods not deemed a national security threat and at least 100% on those considered strategic, with a gradual reduction planned [6][7]. - The financial markets reacted positively to these developments, with U.S. stock indices rising for two consecutive days [9]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - The article notes that the recent tariff discussions have led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. credit [15][18]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply from 3.86% to 4.59% within a short period, reflecting increased selling pressure [18]. - The U.S. dollar index has also declined significantly, dropping below 100 points, which signals weakening confidence in the dollar [21]. Group 3: China's Response and Currency Internationalization - In response to the evolving situation, China has made strides in internationalizing the renminbi, with a new action plan aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [27][28]. - The CIPS system, China's version of SWIFT, is expanding, with coverage now reaching 119 countries and a projected settlement amount of 175.49 trillion yuan for 2024, a 42.6% increase year-on-year [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting the use of the renminbi in international trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and enhance China's financial stability [33][34]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Strategies - The article suggests that the ongoing tariff negotiations will be a protracted process, with U.S. officials indicating that discussions will be challenging [38]. - It highlights the need for China to continue pushing for renminbi internationalization as a strategic response to potential financial conflicts with the U.S. [43][49]. - The article concludes that while the path to replacing the dollar as the world's primary currency is fraught with challenges, the current U.S. policies may provide a unique opportunity for China to strengthen its financial position [49][51].
对华关税或降至50%,“关税闹剧”出现转折点?
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-24 00:27
点击图片▲立即收听 " 对美国认为不构成国家安全威胁的商品征收 35% 的关税,而对涉及所谓 ' 美国战略利益 ' 的商品则征收至少 100% 的关税。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) " 我不会对中国采取强硬措施; 145%关税非常高,之后不会那么高了。" "对华关税不会是零,但会大幅下降! " 说这些话的,是中美关税战发起人 : "万税爷"、 美国总统特朗普。 自昨日凌晨到今天一早,大洋彼岸的美国罕见释放出关于关税的多重积极信号。 最初是北京时间 23日0点,美国财长贝森特表示:"当前美中贸易冲突的紧张局势有望缓解,这种关税对峙状态对中美两国而言都不可持续 。 " 一个小时后,白宫新闻秘书莱维特在新闻发布会上表示, 美国与中国就达成一项贸易协议的谈判 "进展非常顺利" 。 最后,特朗普在白宫亲自定调: "中国将对最终的关税税率非常满意 。 " —— 《华尔街日报》 而到了昨夜晚间,《华尔街日报》报道称:特朗普政府还在考虑采取一种所谓"分级征税"的方案——对美国认为不构成国家安全威胁的商品征收 35%的关税,而对涉及所谓"美国战略利益"的商品则征收至少100%的关税,并将在五年内逐步实施,最终 ...
美联储为啥铁了心不降息?或许只有中国人才能真正看透
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 09:12
美联储为啥铁了心不降息?或许只有中国人才能真正看透。因为无论美国内部如何争斗,美联储的目标只有一个,通过维持高利率来熬垮我 们,使美国长期保持充足的现金流收割世界,维持其金融霸主地位! 一开始,很多人还在琢磨:美联储是不是脑子抽了?全世界都在等它松口,它偏偏装聋作哑,5.25%到5.5%的利率就像钉死的钉子,一动不 动。现在明白了吧?这不是随手一丢的骰子,是一套早就摆好的残局,等着别人踩进去。 想得很明白,就是要让美元更值钱。利率一高,钱立马往美国流,欧洲、日本的利率低得像摆设,一看回报差太多,资金像脱缰的马奔着华 尔街去了。资本的鼻子比狗都灵,哪儿有肉哪儿钻。 美国金融市场像打了鸡血,稳得可怕。股市震一震,人家照样趴着不动。华尔街乐得合不拢嘴,这种局面,是他们梦寐以求的地盘清理术。 其他国家呢?就惨咯。尤其是那些债台高筑的,一下被按进水里。 汇率一跌,美元债的成本刷地上去,别说喘气,还钱都难了。不少国家开始自顾不暇,只能一边割肉一边硬撑。这哪是金融政策,分明是金 融战。中国当然知道,美联储这手,不是对我们一个国家用过。历史早写过一遍。 更扎心的,是美联储明摆着不打算救市。市场跌?它只淡定地看着,仿佛一切都在 ...