Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in aluminum prices has led to significant gains in the stock prices of major aluminum companies, with many reaching new highs this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, 2023, 16 out of 32 listed aluminum companies have seen stock price increases exceeding 50% this year, with Hong Chuang Holdings, Zhongfu Industrial, and Yian Technology leading with increases of 156%, 149%, and 127% respectively [1]. - Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. have also reached their highest stock prices since listing [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Aluminum futures and spot prices have remained strong, with London spot aluminum prices up 13.1% year-to-date, reaching $2,885 per ton, and COMEX aluminum futures up 11.73% at $2,845 per ton [2]. - The main futures contract in Shanghai has also seen a rise of over 10%, reaching 21,880 yuan per ton [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 26.325 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 8.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.772 billion yuan, up 8.09% [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the same period was 22.321 billion yuan, a 7.34% increase, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% [3]. - China Aluminum's profit for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 20.775 billion yuan, an 18.47% increase, with a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a rigid supply structure [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization is high, generally around 97%-98%, with some areas exceeding 100% [6]. - Analysts predict that the demand for aluminum in sectors like power transmission, photovoltaics, and energy storage will continue to grow, supporting future aluminum prices [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global aluminum market may enter a replenishment cycle due to historically low inventories, with supply constraints likely to support high aluminum prices [6]. - The long-term outlook for aluminum prices remains positive, driven by consumption, although short-term supply disruptions may create volatility [7].

Group 1 - Multiple aluminum companies experienced significant stock price increases, with China Aluminum's market value surpassing 180 billion yuan after hitting the daily limit [1] - Aluminum futures prices have been on the rise since the second half of the year, with LME aluminum futures increasing by 23.7% from a low of 2,300 USD/ton in April to 2,845.5 USD/ton as of November 5 [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have also seen a 5.20% increase over the past three months, reaching 21,630 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Institutions are optimistic about future aluminum prices, citing stable domestic supply and demand fundamentals, along with production cuts from overseas due to equipment failures [3] - The aluminum water ratio has reached a historical high of 77%, indicating strong consumption growth, with expectations for a real consumption peak in November and December [4] - The stock market has outperformed commodity prices recently, driven by ongoing supply constraints, with a potential for significant price increases if demand assumptions improve [4] Group 3 - Downstream processing enterprises are showing positive trends, with average operating rates increasing for five consecutive weeks, while domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains tight [4] - The alumina supply is relatively loose, with an annual production capacity of approximately 88.5 million tons, leading to profit transfers towards the electrolytic aluminum sector [4] - Continued favorable policies and sustained demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and electricity are expected to support aluminum prices, with a positive outlook for 2025 [4]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao's stock price increased by over 10%, reaching a new high of 32.64 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.166 billion HKD [1] - The rise in aluminum prices is driven by ongoing supply disruptions overseas, including a production cut at Century Aluminum's Grundartangi smelter affecting 200,000 tons of capacity [1] - South32's Mozal aluminum plant may suspend operations after March 2026 if new power contracts are not secured, and Rio Tinto is considering stopping operations at its Tomago smelter after 2028 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao and raises the target price from 25.2 HKD to 36 HKD, considering it a preferred stock [2] - Despite strong stock performance year-to-date, the forecasted dividend yield for 2026 remains attractive at 6.7% [2] - Earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been increased by 2%, 5%, and 7% respectively, reflecting higher aluminum and alumina sales and prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 based on strong revenue and profit growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of CNY 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit of CNY 19.37 billion, up 23.13% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, net profit reached CNY 6.9 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations; the gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry in China is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid, with aluminum prices slightly strengthening [2] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above CNY 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the range of CNY 2,800–2,900 per ton, with aluminum profit margins expanding to over CNY 5,000 per ton [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America has adjusted its aluminum price forecasts, raising the 2025 expectation to CNY 20,600 per ton (+CNY 100 per ton) and the 2026 long-term forecast to CNY 21,000 per ton [2] - The bank has increased its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 5%-23%, projecting a net profit of CNY 26 billion for 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and CNY 30 billion for 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Group 4: Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining the "Buy" rating include a constructive outlook on aluminum prices, attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio), and the expected contribution from the Ximangdu project, which is anticipated to start production by the end of 2025 [3] - The ongoing share buyback program is expected to support the stock price, with the current target price corresponding to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [3]

Core Insights - Aluminum is gaining market attention, with prices nearing $2,900 per ton, marking a three-year high and within the top 5% of the price range from 1990 to 2025, indicating a potential structural shortage in the coming years [1][3] - The global aluminum supply surplus is expected to narrow by 2026, leading to a projected supply deficit of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027, driven by increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][6] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, is approaching its production capacity limit of 45 million tons, which could impact global supply dynamics [3][5] Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by electric vehicles, which use about 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles, and by the solar power sector, where aluminum is the second-largest metal input after steel [4] - Global aluminum production is facing challenges, particularly in Europe, where smelters are closing due to the expiration of long-term cheap electricity contracts, contributing to a tightening supply situation [6] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player in the aluminum market, with potential plans for new smelting facilities that could increase its production fivefold by 2030, positioning it as the fourth-largest producer globally [7][8] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a dual outcome for the aluminum market: either prices will rise significantly, impacting the global economy, or the supply chain will become increasingly reliant on Chinese companies operating overseas [3][9] - The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase alongside a gradual rise in overseas production from countries like Indonesia, leading to a market adjustment to higher prices and deeper reliance on Chinese supply chains [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [8] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% year-on-year [5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 was 20,740 yuan per ton, an increase of 5.96% year-on-year and 2.64% quarter-on-quarter, driven by overseas production cuts and domestic inventory reduction [6] - The company is progressing well with its 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project, expected to energize the first batch of electrolytic cells by the end of November 2025 [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 6.994 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year and a 5.53% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while net profit reached 1.256 billion yuan, up 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.867 billion, 5.633 billion, and 6.672 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.19, 11.40, and 9.62 [8][10] Market Context - The domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum reached 21,176.67 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, benefiting the company's revenue and profit [6] - The company is also advancing its alumina project in Indonesia, which has completed environmental assessments and is currently working on port and terminal engineering designs [7]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for Q3 2025, driven by rising domestic aluminum prices, despite facing challenges from tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.995 billion, up from $2.904 billion year-over-year [2]. - Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $232 million, compared to $90 million in the same period last year, marking a nearly 158% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted net loss was $6 million, down from a profit of $135 million in the previous year [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, a decrease from $455 million year-over-year [1][2]. Production and Operations - Alumina production increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter to 2.5 million tons, attributed to reduced maintenance at Australian refineries [2]. - Aluminum segment production rose by 1% to 579,000 tons, mainly due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain [2]. - Total alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons, while aluminum shipments decreased by 3% due to trade volume adjustments [2]. Major Developments - The net income of $232 million included gains from the sale of Ma'aden joint venture interests, offset by restructuring costs [3]. - The company announced a long-term energy contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million in the Massena smelter [3]. - Alcoa received support from the U.S. and Australian governments for the joint development of a gallium plant at the Wagerup refinery [3]. Market Context - U.S. aluminum prices have outpaced international markets, with Midwest premiums soaring 113% since early June, influenced by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. - The company anticipates an additional $50 million increase in tariff costs for Q4 2025, indicating ongoing trade impacts [3]. Future Outlook - Alcoa expects total alumina production to remain between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons for 2025, with aluminum production projected at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons [4]. - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million, while the aluminum segment may face a $20 million adverse impact due to operational inefficiencies [4].

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) has remained stable, with a mild increase of 0.5% from September to October, indicating a rising trend in aluminum prices supported by various factors [1] - Following a significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which produces about 40% of the aluminum sheets for the automotive industry, the overall outlook for U.S. aluminum prices has changed, with Midwest premiums reaching a historical high of $0.77 per pound as of October 6 [2][3] - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 2.61% last month, reaching its highest level since March, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices among other base metals [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - The fire at Novelis has severely weakened U.S. aluminum production capacity, with the plant expected to remain offline until early next year, impacting the automotive supply chain significantly [2] - U.S. aluminum imports have been declining, with a 3.69% decrease in aluminum sheet imports from February to August compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to domestic supply tightness [4] - Overall, aluminum product imports have decreased by 10.17%, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer of aluminum, necessitating overseas supply to meet demand [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has intensified the impact of supply disruptions on the market, leading buyers to increasingly seek domestic producers for raw materials [5] - Despite the current upward trend in aluminum prices, ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening demand environment may challenge the sustainability of this trend in the coming months [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]