文字早评 2025/09/18 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、财政部数据显示，1—8 月，全国一般公共预算收入 148198 亿元，同比增长 0.3%。其中，全国税收 收入 121085 亿元，同比微增 0.02%；非税收入 27113 亿元，同比增长 1.5%。分中央和地方看，中央一 般公共预算收入 64268 亿元，同比下降 1.7%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 83930 亿元，同比增长 1.8%； 2、工信部就智能网联汽车组合驾驶辅助相关标准公开征求意见，标准要求系统具备手部脱离检测以及 视线脱离检测能力; 3、宁德时代：钠新电池具备超 500 公里的纯电续航能力 明年将批量供货； 4、东山精密：当前光芯片市场供应紧张格局短期难以缓解 索尔思将重点锁定 2027 年全球顶级科技客 户的 1.6T 光模块需求； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.05%/-0.20%/-0.72%/-1.28%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.11%/-0.87%/-2.47%/-4.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.10%/-0.99%/-2.95%/-5.67%； IH 当月 ...

【伦敦金属期货实时报价：多品种上涨】截至20:30，伦敦金属期货市场呈现涨势。其中，伦镍涨1.14%， 伦铜涨0.35%，伦铅涨0.50%，伦锌涨1.06%，伦铝涨0.88%，伦锡涨0.47%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, the capital market is supported by policies, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term oscillations are likely. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Message**: Two departments clarify tax policies for state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich social security funds; Musk says Optimus robots may be widely used in the next few years; Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4; US and UK bond yields rise [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy is supportive of the capital market. After recent continuous rises, short - term market fluctuations may intensify, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined. There are news about visa - free policies for Russia and high UK bond yields. The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Although the manufacturing PMI improved in August but remained below the boom - bust line, and exports may face pressure. With loose funds and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline, but the bond market may oscillate in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The weak US economic data and potential Fed policy changes supported precious metal prices. - **Outlook**: The Fed may enter an unexpected interest - rate cut cycle, which will be beneficial to precious metals. Silver may outperform gold, and the strategy is to go long on silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply pressure was relieved by factors such as tight scrap supply and smelting maintenance. - **Outlook**: With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and strong price support, copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, and demand was marginally improving. - **Outlook**: With a dovish Fed signal, aluminum prices are supported. Attention should be paid to inventory changes, and prices may rise if the inventory turns [11]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a low - level oscillation. Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and social inventory of zinc ingots continued to rise. - **Outlook**: Despite high Fed rate - cut expectations, the industry is in an oversupply situation, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices were expected to strengthen. Lead concentrate inventory decreased, and supply was marginally reduced. - **Outlook**: With high Fed rate - cut expectations, lead prices are expected to run strongly [13][14]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were weakly oscillating. Nickel iron prices were expected to be stable and strong, and the supply of intermediate products was tight. - **Outlook**: With positive macro - atmosphere and potential policy support, nickel prices have limited downside space. The strategy is to go long on dips [15]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly due to slow mine复产 and planned smelter maintenance, while demand was in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. There was a lack of positive drivers, and the market was in a weak adjustment. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The price reference range for the 2511 contract is 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Ore supply was disturbed, and futures inventory increased. - **Outlook**: After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited. The strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices were strong. Concerns about nickel supply and approaching traditional consumption seasons supported prices. - **Outlook**: With the approaching of the consumption season, demand is expected to increase, and prices may rise [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The market was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and costs were supportive. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices declined slightly. Production was high, demand was weak, and inventory was accumulating. - **Outlook**: If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and production restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments increased, and steel production decreased. - **Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mill restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices were stable. Production was high, inventory decreased, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and may rise if policies are favorable [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices were stable. Production increased, inventory decreased, and demand was average. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon prices were weakly oscillating, and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. - **Outlook**: With the weakening of "anti - involution" sentiment, prices are expected to move towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak before mid - October, and the strategy is to wait and see [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, and the market was in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate highly, and may rise if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU oscillated. Weather in Thailand may push prices up, and there are different views on supply and demand. - **Strategy**: A long - term bullish view. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is suggested [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. Geo - political premiums disappeared, but prices were undervalued. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view, but avoid chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and the market was in a weak state. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [42][43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply decreased, demand was mainly from exports, and inventory was high. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices is recommended [44]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis strengthened. Supply was increasing, demand was improving seasonally, and inventory was high. - **Outlook**: Prices may rebound after inventory decreases [45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices declined. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and exports were expected to decline. - **Strategy**: A short - position is recommended [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was recovering from the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: Prices may decline in the medium - term [48][49]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply was undergoing de - stocking, demand was improving, and processing fees were affected. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following PX is recommended [50]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices declined. Supply was high, downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance, and inventory was expected to be low. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following crude oil is recommended [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices declined. Cost support exists, supply is limited, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate upwards [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure is high, demand is rebounding seasonally, and inventory pressure is high. - **Strategy**: A long - position on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices is recommended [53]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Supply may be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support prices. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, pay attention to low - level rebounds, and consider a far - month reverse spread [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was high, demand was average, and market sentiment was pessimistic. - **Strategy**: A short - position on the near - month contract on rebounds and a reverse spread are recommended [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. Inventory is high, and de - stocking depends on the inflection point of processing volume and arrivals. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices within the cost range is recommended [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils rebounded. Indian palm oil imports were large, and there are multiple factors supporting prices. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may rise in Q4 due to the B50 policy. An oscillating and strengthening view is taken before inventory accumulates and demand feedback is negative [59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar gap is expected to narrow, and domestic supply may increase. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is maintained. The downward space depends on the performance of the external market [61][62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline, and domestic inventory is low. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term [63].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as good July sales of Chinese cars and new - energy vehicles, possible Fed rate cuts, and the confirmed meeting time between US and Russian presidents, leading to most non - ferrous metals rising. However, the People's Bank of China's significant net currency withdrawal and the decline in the month - on - month auto production and sales in July have added some market complexity. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a large impact on the aluminum market, and the short - term may see fluctuations with increased volatility [1]. - Currently in the off - season, there is insufficient spot demand. The hype around anti - involution in the alumina market has significantly subsided, and this round of speculation may end [2]. 3) Summary by Related Information Market Performance - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE) closed at 20,700 today, and the spot price was 20,630, with a spot discount of - 70 points. The spot discount this week remained flat at - 40 yuan, and spot trading improved. London Aluminum (LME) declined, and domestic spot aluminum also fell. The LME spot inventory decreased this week, with a spot discount of - 2 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio dropped to 7.93, indicating the domestic market's weaker performance compared to the overseas market [1]. - Technically, crude oil tumbled today, LME aluminum oscillated and slightly declined, trading around 2,614 dollars. SHFE aluminum rose slightly, closing at 20,700, with improved technical patterns. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE aluminum increased, and market sentiment improved slightly [2]. Inventory Situation - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose, while the LME spot inventory decreased [1]. Other Information - The month - on - month auto production and sales in July decreased, but the year - on - year growth continued to be above 13%. The RMB appreciated and the US dollar depreciated during the day, and the market sentiment was strong, leading to all non - ferrous metals rising [1].

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London nickel increased by 1.44% [1] - London copper decreased by 0.49% [1] - London lead fell by 0.20% [1] - London zinc dropped by 0.68% [1] - London aluminum declined by 0.84% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic aluminum inventory has slightly increased, leading to a relatively stable aluminum price despite a decrease in short positions as the delivery month approaches [1] - As of the latest data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory reached 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, while aluminum rod inventory also rose by 5,000 tons to 148,000 tons [1] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,590 yuan/ton, with a trading range expected between 20,300 and 20,800 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai lead index rose by 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 82,400 contracts [1] - LME lead inventory stands at 273,400 tons, with a cancellation stock of 70,700 tons, indicating a strong market for lead despite weak domestic consumption [1] - The overall supply of primary lead remains high while recycled lead supply is tight, leading to a recovery in lead-acid battery prices and improved purchasing from downstream sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen nearly 2% within the day, surpassing $2,500 per ton, marking the highest level since April 1 [1] Group 1 - The increase in aluminum prices indicates a strong market demand and potential bullish trends in the aluminum industry [1]