截止收盘，伦铜报11870.5美元涨143.5美元，涨幅1.22%；伦铝报2955.5美元涨38.5美元，涨幅1.32%； 伦锌报3078美元涨20美元，涨幅0.65%；伦铅报1984.5美元涨24.5美元，涨幅1.25%；伦锡报42975美元 涨55美元，涨幅0.13%；伦镍报14900美元涨270美元，涨幅1.85%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月20日早讯：周五晚间LME金属期货全线上涨，伦铜创下记录新高；伦镍领涨；其它金 属不同程度上涨。 ...

摘要： 年报 2025 年 12 月 年报 2025-12 2026 铝价走势可能主要受到以下因素影响： 1. 美联储货币政策：2026 年下半年美联储可能再次迎来降息周期，可能 带动有色金属新一轮上涨，具体降息时点值得重点关注。 2. 关税影响：美国对铜征收关税导致大量囤积现货铜，是铜价大涨的刺 激因素之一。而目前美国对铝关税政策与铜类似，如果后续关税政策改变导致 大量囤积现货铝，可能导致全球范围内铝现货供需出现失衡，极大影响铝价。 3. 俄乌谈判情况：如果俄乌谈判能够很快迎来关键性进展的话，可能导 致全球能源价格进一步下降和电解铝流通成本降低，利空铝价。 4. 中美等主要国家经济数据：国内房地产行业暂未看到复苏迹象，汽车 行业增量有限，制造业面临一定压力，而欧美经济已经到达衰退边缘，中长期 铝现货消费可能延续弱势。 5. 现货供需：受到国内房地产行业不景气、美欧经济增速下滑等因素影 响，真实的铝消费水平可能已经开始下降，目前铝价主要受到能源（电力）价 格和未来 AI 硬件增长预期的支撑。 受到美联储降息刺激，金属价格全线上涨，带动铝价同步大涨。当前铝价 处于历史高位，但下游现货需求并不理想。后续如果投机性 ...

截止收盘，伦铜报11619美元跌67美元，跌幅0.57%；伦铝报2882.5美元涨7.5美元，涨幅0.26%；伦锌报 3035美元跌60美元，跌幅1.94%；伦铅报1942美元跌4.5美元，跌幅0.23%；伦锡报40955美元跌140美 元，跌幅0.34%；伦镍报14255美元跌40美元，跌幅0.28%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月17日早讯：周二晚间LME金属期货普遍收跌，伦镍伦铅进一步走低；伦锌跌近2%。 ...

截止收盘，伦铜报11742.5美元涨123.5美元，涨幅1.06%；伦铝报2906美元涨23.5美元，涨幅0.82%；伦 锌报3071.5美元涨36.5美元，涨幅1.20%；伦铅报1961美元涨19美元，涨幅0.98%；伦锡报42275美元涨 1320美元，涨幅3.22%；伦镍报14365美元涨110美元，涨幅0.77%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月18日早讯：周三晚间LME金属期货全线上涨，伦锡飙升报自2022年4月底以来最高位； 伦铝连涨二日收于六周新高。 ...

截止收盘，伦铜报11727美元跌15.5美元，跌幅0.13%；伦铝报2917美元涨11美元，涨幅0.38%；伦锌报 3058美元跌13.5美元，跌幅0.44%；伦铅报1960美元跌1美元，跌幅0.05%；伦锡报42920美元涨645美 元，涨幅1.53%；伦镍报14630美元涨265美元，涨幅1.84%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月19日早讯：周四晚间LME金属期货涨跌不一，伦铝连涨三日收盘创下自2022年5月底以 来新高；伦锡进一步上涨。 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 沪铜持续增仓上行 核心观点 铜：铜价增仓上行，突破历史高位，上行动能较强 上周，沪铜主力合约价格突破 9 万元/吨，伦铜价格也站上 1.1 万 美元/吨，两者均创下历史新高。这轮强劲上涨是供给紧缩、宏观预 期与金融资金共同驱动的结果。本轮行情最根本的驱动来自上游"矿 荒"。今年全球多个主要铜矿因事故、停产等因素大幅减产，导致铜 精矿供应紧张。在此背景下，宏观政策催化推动了铜价向上突破。 11 月下旬以来，市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期升温，营 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have shown rapid rotation, with technology growth remaining the market's main theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips. In the bond market, the supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter, and it is expected to oscillate and recover. For various commodities, strategies vary based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [4][8]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: News includes diplomatic statements, potential mergers in the securities industry, changes in semiconductor intervention, and expected memory price increases. The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [2][3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology growth as the main theme. The policy supports the capital market, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Wednesday's futures contract prices showed declines. There are upcoming treasury cash management deposit tenders, and the Japanese 10 - year bond yield reached a high. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection [5]. - **Strategy View**: The 10 - month economic data is weak, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, considering the supply - demand pattern, inflation expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Prices of gold and silver in domestic and overseas markets rose. The US 10 - year bond yield and the US dollar index are given. Fed officials' statements and meeting minutes influenced market expectations [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic warehouse inventory changes, price differentials, and import losses are presented [12]. - **Strategy View**: Despite geopolitical headwinds, copper prices are supported by tight raw material supply and improved spot conditions. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are given [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rose. Changes in inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [14]. - **Strategy View**: With relatively low overseas inventory and potential domestic inventory reduction, aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillation. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum are given [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices showed changes. Inventory, positions, and price differentials at home and abroad are presented [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the refinery's winter stockpiling. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices changed slightly. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: Lead raw materials are in short supply, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, cost, and inventory changes are presented [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are under pressure from fundamentals. Short - term decline space may be limited, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by mine shortages, and demand has long - term support from emerging sectors [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Reference operating ranges are given [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Futures contract prices and spot price changes are presented [22]. - **Strategy View**: The market is dominated by bulls. Attention should be paid to potential price fluctuations, and a reference operating range is given [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas mine prices may decline, and alumina has a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and a reference operating range is given [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. Spot prices, positions, and inventory changes are presented [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and prices are expected to continue to decline [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [31]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [33]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is increasing, and demand has a marginal increase. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. Inventory, positions, and spot price changes are presented [35][37]. - **Strategy View**: Glass supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [39]. - **Strategy View**: For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have different fundamentals and trading suggestions [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon may have a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. Supply and demand factors, inventory, and spot prices are presented [48][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: A short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and a hedging suggestion is provided [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and related refined oil prices changed. Inventory changes are presented [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is suggested [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [55]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventory and supply - demand imbalance put pressure on prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [56]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors are presented [58]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene supply is under pressure, and styrene prices may stop falling [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [60]. - **Strategy View**: Supply exceeds demand, and export expectations are weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [62]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate. A short - selling strategy is recommended [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [64]. - **Strategy View**: Supply may accumulate, and demand has limited improvement. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [66]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene inventory may accumulate slightly in November. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [69]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [71]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [75]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and an anti - arbitrage strategy is preferred [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [77]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [79]. - **Strategy View**: Import costs have a bottom, and meal prices are expected to oscillate [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [83]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate, and a long - biased strategy can be considered if production declines [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [85]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices are expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [88]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high supply [90].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Due to macro - negative factors and insufficient demand, the upward movement of Shanghai Aluminum faces obstacles. Although it may continue its short - term volatile upward trend, it may face pressure in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Related Content Market Environment - The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to drop below 50%, leading to rising risk aversion and weakening of risk assets. The market is generally weak, with the US dollar rising and the RMB falling, and non - ferrous metals mostly declining [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725, and the spot price was 21,630, with a spot - to - futures premium of - 95 points. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose and then fell, with the spot premium remaining at - 20 yuan. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was stable, alumina inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly. LME inventory increased, and the LME spot premium widened to - 28 US dollars [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil tumbled, and LME Aluminum declined slightly, trading around 2,850 US dollars. Shanghai Aluminum fell, closing at 21,725, with a weakening technical pattern. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased, indicating significant market divergence [4] Market Sentiment and Outlook - After the hype of anti - involution subsided, alumina oscillated at a low level. With the easing of trade disputes, unclear situation in Russia - Ukraine, and rising energy prices, market sentiment was relatively strong. After the hype of gold and copper decreased, small metals were favored by funds. The short - term volatile upward trend of Shanghai Aluminum will continue, but it may face pressure in the medium term due to insufficient spot demand. The future focus is on whether Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate with copper prices and the spot demand situation [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | - 20 | - 16 | 7.54 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | - 10 | - 24 | 7.56 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 10 | - 28 | 7.58 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | - 20 | - 26 | 7.60 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | - 20 | - 28 | 7.65 | [5]

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that London aluminum prices have decreased by 2.00% on the day, currently reported at $2847.68 per ton [1]