南方财经全媒体记者 吴霜 上海报道 6月3日，A股银行板块涨幅居前，多数成份股飘红，沪农商行、渝农商行、青岛银行、兴业银行、上海 银行等银行涨幅较大。其中，沪农商行早盘股价触及涨停，截至发稿，报9.86元每股，涨幅10.04%，股 价创3年多以来的新高，总市值逼近千亿大关。 随着银行个股股价的上涨，银行转债开始频频发出预警，提示着触发转股的可能。实际上，对于银行来 说，转债转股是一件喜闻乐见的事情。一方面，可以降低银行的融资成本；另一方面，可以补充银行的 核心一级资本充足率。 上海银行就在一季度的业绩发布会指出，推进可转债转股，是该行补充核心一级资本的有效方式，公司 和管理层高度重视市场对公司的关注和评价，持续提升内在价值，推进估值修复。 但是对于债券投资人来说，银行转债的持续转股也会导致其转债投资的优质资产变得更加稀缺。 6月3日整体大盘微涨，银行股大幅领涨。具体来看，截至收盘，上证综指涨0.43%，报3361.98点；科创 50指数涨0.48%，报981.71点；深证成指涨0.16%，报10057.17点；创业板指涨0.48%，报2002.7点。 其中银行板块，除了沪农商行外，今日渝农商行大涨6.76%， ...

4月30日银行股在震荡市中领跌，当日中证银行指数跌幅达2.13%，37只个股飘绿，仅浦发银行、郑州 银行、民生银行微涨。其中，华夏银行跌8.55%，北京银行、沪农商行跌超4%。国有大行中，工商银 行、建设银行、农业银行跌幅均超过3%，中国银行、邮储银行跌幅也在2%以上，交通银行跌1.32%。 从消息面来看，截至4月29日晚间，A股上市银行2025年一季度经营业绩全部出炉，整体表现低于市场 预期，其中工商银行、建设银行盈利增速创下新低。 今年一季度，42家上市银行营收勉强维持正增长，但营收和盈利增速较去年同期多数下滑，相比刚披露 的2024年年报盈利增速落差更大。42家上市银行归母净利润总额约5640亿元，较去年同期减少68亿元， 其中六大行整体同比少赚73亿元。 具体来看，一季度共有12家银行盈利呈负增长，六大行中有4家在列。其中，建设银行、工商银行归母 净利润分别同比减少3.99%；中国银行、邮储银行归母净利润增速分别为2.9%、2.62%；农业银行、交 通银行归母净利润维持同比正增长。同期，厦门银行、华夏银行归母净利润降幅超过14%，贵阳银行、 平安银行、民生银行归母净利润降幅也在5%以上。 随着一季报披 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - The banking sector's revenue is supported by traditional interest margin business, with provisions bolstering performance [4] - Active funds slightly reduced their holdings in the banking sector, while northbound funds increased their positions [6] - The overall market trend shows a divergence where active funds are pulling back, but certain cyclical stocks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank are seeing increased investment [6] Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, active funds reduced their holdings in the banking sector to 4%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][9] - The low allocation difference for active funds in the banking sector is 8.33%, which has widened by 14 basis points compared to Q4 2024 [12] Passive Fund Holdings - The performance of technology stocks has siphoned off investments from major indices, leading to a decrease in passive funds' holdings in banking stocks [6] - By the end of Q1 2025, passive funds held a total market value of 182.4 billion yuan in banking stocks, down 1.84% from the end of 2024 [6] Northbound Fund Holdings - Northbound funds increased their holdings in the banking sector, with a net inflow of 4.6% compared to the end of Q4 2024 [6] - The total market value held by northbound funds in banking stocks reached 227.57 billion yuan, representing 2.43% of the total circulating market value of listed banks [6] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the dividend attributes of banking stocks, suggesting a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [6] - Two main investment lines are identified: high-dividend large banks (e.g., Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank) and city commercial banks with strong regional advantages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown positive performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, indicating a favorable environment for high dividend yield investments in the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 11, 2025, the HSSCHKY index rose by 0.53%, with notable increases in stocks such as China Resources Land (4.30%) and CITIC Bank (4.04%) [1]. - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) has experienced a 3.49% increase over the past three months, with a current price of 0.89 yuan [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 0.71% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 25.776 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a current scale of 3.582 billion yuan, with recent fund inflows remaining balanced [2]. - Over the past 22 trading days, the ETF has attracted a total of 74.4063 million yuan in capital [2]. - The latest margin trading figures show a financing purchase amount of 1.0941 million yuan and a financing balance of 10.8082 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has achieved an 18.28% net value increase over the past year [3]. - Since its inception, the ETF's highest monthly return was 24.18%, with an average monthly return of 4.95% during rising months [3]. - The ETF's management fee is set at 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3]. Group 4: Index Composition - The HSSCHKY index aims to reflect the performance of high dividend securities listed in Hong Kong that can be traded through the Stock Connect [4]. - As of April 10, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 28.59% of the total index weight, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (3.93%) and Hang Lung Properties (3.38%) [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The cumulative tariff rate of 54% imposed by the US on China is impacting China's economic structure and total output, leading to a contraction in credit demand and pressure on interest margins in the banking sector, although overall asset quality remains stable [1][3]. Economic Impact - Weak external demand is increasing operational pressure on export-related enterprises, resulting in decreased credit demand from these clients, lower loan rates, and challenges to asset quality, with varying impacts across different client segments [1][3]. - The share of exports to the US is expected to drop to 14.7% in 2024, compounded by high tariffs, which may lead to a potential reduction of 213.9 billion yuan in credit growth related to exports by 2025 [3]. Policy Response - Macro-control measures are anticipated to become more accommodative, with policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand likely to boost retail credit demand [1][3]. - The introduction of consumption loans is expected to be a key strategy, with an estimated increase of 1.24 trillion yuan in 2024, representing 6.9% of total credit growth [3]. Investment Outlook - The banking sector's high dividend yield and policy support are expected to enhance investment attractiveness, particularly for large banks, China Merchants Bank, and quality city commercial banks [1][2]. - The report suggests focusing on large banks and city commercial banks with strong regional advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [2]. Credit Quality - The risk exposure related to export sectors is manageable, with the manufacturing and personal business loans directly affected by tariffs, accounting for a maximum exposure of 2.6% [7]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain low at 1.36%, indicating a robust risk management environment [7]. Interest Margin - A decline in credit demand is expected to exert downward pressure on loan rates, with a potential 14 basis points drop in industry interest margins for every 1% decrease in credit growth [4][5]. - The anticipated reduction in deposit rates and the release of low-cost funds through reserve requirement ratio cuts are expected to partially offset the pressure on asset yields [4][5]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a high provision coverage ratio providing a buffer against potential increases in non-performing loans [8]. - The trend of rising non-performing loans in retail lending is likely to reverse due to improved consumer repayment capabilities and supportive policies [8].