Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the current egg market is dominated by oversupply, leading to weaker-than-expected price performance during the traditional peak season [4][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the average seasonal price increase for eggs from June to September is 1.8 yuan/kg, with a median of 1.6 yuan/kg, but this year the price increase has been significantly lower due to persistent oversupply [4][5] - As of the end of July, the number of laying hens reached 1.356 billion, the highest for this period historically, contributing to the current oversupply situation [5][12] Group 2 - The supply side is expected to continue dominating price fluctuations in the future, with the current market conditions characterized by excess supply and low inventory strategies from downstream players [8][12] - The overlap of high supply and peak demand has led to suppressed short-term demand, with potential for a sudden increase in demand as seasonal factors like school openings and the Mid-Autumn Festival approach [11][12] - The market is experiencing significant trading volume, with total positions reaching a historical high of 710,000 contracts, indicating a potential for a rebound in demand that could exceed expectations [11][12]

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined, with the 2509 contract dropping 3.02%, the 2510 contract falling 2.69%, and the 2511 contract decreasing 1.62% [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.18 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core View - The egg price dropped significantly last week, and the supply pressure this year is large. The spot price in August is expected to have a second wave of increase, but the upper limit has been lowered [8] - The futures market has factored in the expectation of a second - wave increase in the peak season. The 09 contract still has a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price [8] Operation Suggestions - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week, the futures may be slightly stronger, and the basis may be narrowed by the way of spot price rising and futures price stabilizing [8] - Long - position investors can appropriately participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts, but should operate in stages and not be overly greedy [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - In July, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024 [9] - The chicken culling volume has been gradually decreasing since June, and the current average age of culled chickens is 506 days [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [14][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Ih2509 contract for live pigs is in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline later. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase in the second half of 2025, the impact of economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences may limit the boost. Therefore, the rebound space for pig prices is limited, and they will remain under pressure overall. However, due to policy disturbances, strong market sentiment, and the approaching peak season, short - term pig prices may be strong, but the upside space is limited under sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging to lock in sales prices, and food enterprises can purchase as needed and buy call options to control procurement costs while selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [3]. - The jd2509 contract for eggs is also in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and supply pressure continues to weigh. Demand has seasonal changes within the year, but limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the expected fluctuation range is limited. Considering cost and profit, the price of eggs is expected to remain at a low level. The demand for the 09 contract is in the declining phase after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging when egg prices are under pressure, and food enterprises can control procurement costs by buying call options and selling out - of - the - money put options [3]. Summary by Sections Live Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million, indicating persistent over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [14]. - The average slaughter weight has slightly decreased but remains high. With the approaching of the autumn and winter peak season, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may gradually increase, and farmers are expected to slow down the slaughter rhythm, so the weight is unlikely to decline significantly [15]. - **Demand Analysis** - Currently, demand is in the off - season, and the slaughter volume remains low. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage create short - term demand and provide support at low prices. Recently, most secondary fattening pigs are being sold, and attention should be paid to future changes in the secondary fattening rhythm [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of August 7, the breeding cost of large - scale farms using the self - breeding and self - raising model is 13.09 yuan/kg, and that of the purchased piglet model is 14.44 yuan/kg. Breeding enterprise profits are shrinking [35]. - The breeding capacity is relatively stable. Farmers are still cautious about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement by large - scale farms, and the enthusiasm for purchasing piglets is average [36]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state's reserve purchase and release of pork regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the live pig market. In the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, the National Development and Reform Commission will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year [45]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for live pigs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [8]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since the second half of 2024, the enthusiasm for replenishment has been high, so the number of newly - laid hens will be high until the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens is relatively limited, so the inventory of laying hens will remain at a relatively high level until the third quarter [64]. - In the short term, the laying rate is seasonally low, and the number of culled old hens has increased recently, but the overall supply is still abundant [65]. - Due to the weakening of feed prices, the breeding cost of eggs has decreased, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population structure, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend in recent years. In the medium - and short - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with short - term peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, demand is seasonally rebounding, and food factories are starting to stock up [76]. - Although the improvement in supply and the rebound in demand support the stability of spot prices, the overall supply remains high, and the price of the JD2509 contract is expected to be under pressure as it is in the post - festival period [77]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Data on the inventory days of fresh eggs in the production and circulation links are provided, showing their changes over time [84]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for eggs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [85].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices dropped significantly. The peak - season spot price started to rise around July 10th this year, later than usual. Market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - stored eggs' release hit the market. The current correction in egg prices is about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, greater than the usual range of 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin, indicating high supply pressure [8] - Most产区 prices stabilized on Thursday and Friday this week. As it is still the summer peak season and there is an expectation of pre - holiday stockpiling in September, the spot price is expected to have a second wave of increase in August, but the upper limit has been adjusted downwards [8] - In the futures market, due to the sharp drop in the spot price last weekend, futures were notably weak in the first few trading days of this week. The near - month 09 contract hit a record low. The market has factored in the expectation of a second peak - season increase. The 09 contract is still at a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price. Considering packaging costs for delivery, it will face significant pressure when the spot price reaches around 3.6 yuan/jin [8] - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Subsequently, the basis may be narrowed through the spot price rising while the futures price remains stable. The fourth - quarter contracts are also at historical lows, corresponding to a weak fundamental situation. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the spot's second increase but should avoid over - staying in the market due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3376, the opening price was 3393, the highest price was 3393, the lowest price was 3357, the closing price was 3362, down 14 points or 0.41%. The trading volume was 153,259, the open interest was 203,664, and the open interest increased by 862 [7] - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3288, the opening price was 3292, the highest price was 3304, the lowest price was 3253, the closing price was 3257, down 31 points or 0.94%. The trading volume was 98,643, the open interest was 205,141, and the open interest increased by 16,335 [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3336, the opening price was 3340, the highest price was 3343, the lowest price was 3316, the closing price was 3326, down 10 points or 0.30%. The trading volume was 26,452, the open interest was 96,200, and the open interest increased by 917 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract declined by 0.41% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts but should operate in a phased manner due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and in the same period of 2024 (41.68 million). It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past eight years. Due to low breeding profits in the past two months, farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production has wavered, and this was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume in July [9][10] - The culling volume of laying hens in the first three weeks as of August 7th was 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline greater than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average culling age was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to fall over the weekend. The adjustment in the peak season this year was greater than expected. The short - term market downturn may continue, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there will be at least one wave of price increases in August according to historical patterns, the expected target is lowered to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. The fourth - quarter contracts are currently at a historically low valuation, but it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing, and it is advisable to conduct band operations [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3394, the opening price was 3359, the highest price was 3372, the lowest price was 3323, the closing price was 3330, down 64 or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 253,161 and an open interest of 227,835, a decrease of 4144. - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3258, the opening price was 3245, the highest price was 3266, the lowest price was 3242, the closing price was 3252, down 6 or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 94,484 and an open interest of 194,539, a decrease of 879. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3335, the opening price was 3323, the highest price was 3352, the lowest price was 3318, the closing price was 3349, up 14 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 30,860 and an open interest of 91,845, an increase of 3208. - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, it is advisable to conduct band operations and pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. This was the first year - on - year decrease in the monthly replenishment volume this year [9]. - From the first to the third week of July 31, the national chicken culling volumes were 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the decline rate is higher than the seasonal average. As of July 31, the average age of culled chickens was 507 days, one day later than the previous week and one day earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and egg 09 seasonal trends, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and others [16][14][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly opened laying hens from previous replenishments is significant, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. The spot market price has been consistently lower than expected, rising from the previous low and then falling again recently. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the start of school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, the near - month contracts have fallen significantly due to weak spot prices and high inventory, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3360 yuan/500 kilograms, down 124 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34911 lots, up 2099 lots. - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 260 yuan/500 kilograms, down 125 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 231979 lots, up 5939 lots. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 25 lots, up 3 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 369 yuan/500 kilograms, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, down 0.03 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.16 yuan/hen, down 0.1 yuan. - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.49 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, down 0.04 days. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8032 tons, up 146 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.91 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.68 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.00 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan [2].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. In the spot market, August is still the peak season, and there should be at least one more price increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan. For the futures market, if the spot price fails to resume its upward trend in the next week, the 09 contract may continue to squeeze out the premium. If the spot price rises again, its sustainability needs to be monitored. The 4.0 - 4.2 yuan level in the spot market will still have strong pressure, corresponding to around 3800 in the futures market. The contracts for the fourth quarter are currently at historically low valuations, and long positions can be considered after the current spot price decline, but band operations are recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of eggs in the national market were weak. The average price in the main production areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 09 contract fell 1.28%. The 2508 contract closed at 3191, down 45 or 1.39%; the 2509 contract closed at 3484, down 45 or 1.28%; the 2510 contract closed at 3295, down 17 or 0.51% [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Observe the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan in the spot market. For the 09 contract, pay attention to the spot price trend. For the fourth - quarter contracts, consider band operations and long - position layouts after the spot price decline [8]. 2. Industry News - Laying Hen Inventory: The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, it was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - Chick Hatchling Volume: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. It was the first year - on - year decrease in the past two months [9]. - Hen Culling: As of July 31, the culling volume in the previous three weeks was 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the average culling age was 507 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, egg main production area average price, and egg 09 seasonal trend, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the text [11][14][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg spot market has rebounded significantly but is approaching historical涨幅, showing hesitation. The futures market, though rising less, remains in a premium structure. Near the delivery month, the near - month 08 contract will face selling pressure. It is recommended to buy the far - month 09 contract on dips and look for reverse spread opportunities [3]. - The supply side has high - level capacity, with recent new replenishment slowing down, previous replenishment starting to lay eggs, and the elimination of backward capacity slowing. The demand side has improved, but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand [3]. - The cost of feed and comprehensive breeding has slightly declined. Egg prices have returned above the feed cost, and profits have improved [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Egg futures ended their rebound last week and returned to a weak oscillation. The large increase in spot prices needs to be digested, and the premium structure of the futures is being repaired. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Last week, new egg products maintained a high - level oscillation, with the upward momentum slowing down and starting to correct. The current spot rebound is mainly driven by the sales areas. After the bad weather, stocking will provide some support, but the increase is limited. The market has risen from 2.4 yuan/jin to 3.2 yuan/jin, close to the average seasonal increase, and further upward movement requires new event drivers [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - New capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, remaining at a high level and higher than the historical average [19]. - Elimination capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, with a relatively neutral available elimination volume [19]. - Laying - hen inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. New capacity is increasing steadily, new replenishment is slowing down, and the available elimination volume is decreasing steadily. The backward capacity is entering the active elimination stage, but the overall supply pressure still exists [19]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of culled chickens is 5.76 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.24 yuan/jin. The elimination volume has decreased significantly, and the increase in price restricts the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining stable, and the overall age has returned to the normal range, with the "start - up rate" increasing steadily [22]. 3.5 Demand Side - Seasonally, it is the peak season for tourism and deep - processing demand. The inventory pressure in the production areas is not high, but high temperatures are reducing the laying rate and increasing costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the tourism peak season has arrived, and overall demand has improved [24]. - Vegetable prices are rising due to high - temperature weather, supporting egg prices. Pork prices are oscillating at a high level, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened recently [26]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Cost: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices are falling steadily. The overall cost is oscillating, with the current feed cost at about 2.5 yuan/jin and the comprehensive breeding cost at about 2.8 yuan/jin [29]. - Profit: Egg prices have recently returned above the feed cost, but the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, showing a seasonal bottom - bouncing [30]. 3.7 Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the high - level capacity, seasonal suppression, and the premium of the futures over the spot indicate further downward space. Bulls believe that the valuation is low and the seasonal trend is about to turn positive, making it a good time to buy. Currently, near the delivery month, the bears are winning [33]. 3.8 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures is at a premium. The basis is currently running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen during the peak season [35]. - Spread: In the future, as the cycle capacity declines, reverse spreads should be the main strategy [38].