The yellow metal looks to be settling after recent price swings. ...

每经AI快讯，现货黄金失守4970美元/盎司，日内涨幅收窄至0.13%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 ...

2月7日，国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模连续6个月稳定在3.3万 亿美元以上。同时，央行连续15个月增持黄金。 外储规模继续稳定在3.3万亿美元以上 数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升 幅为1.23%。 国家外汇管理局表示，2026年1月，受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下 跌，全球主要金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上 升。我国经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 民生银行(3.880, 0.04, 1.04%)首席经济学家温彬分析称，1月份，受多重因素叠加影响，美元延续弱势： 一是特朗普在委内瑞拉、伊朗、格陵兰岛等多地开展或威胁军事打击加剧了地缘政治风险，美元信用风 险高企。二是特朗普暗示对美元贬值持开放态度，引发市场抛售潮。此外，美联储委员释放鹰派信号， 加之沃什当选美联储主席的预期发酵，美债震荡上行，全球资产价格整体上涨。 "随着跨境投融资便利化政策持续加码，资本市场对外资吸引力将持续增强 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 潜龙悟用 来源：雪球 进入这篇文章之前 ， 我们知道目前现货黄金的价格是5000美元/盎司 。 现在 ， 我要你先花2分钟 ， 仔细思考以下几个问题 ： 1 、 你觉得半年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 2 、 你觉得5年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 3 、 你觉得30年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 一定要 " 仔细思考 " ， 可以把你的想法写在评论区里 …… 下面我们进入正题 。 黄金 ， 首先是一种商品 ， 其次才是一般等价物 。 因此 ， 研究黄金价格变动 ， 先要把黄金作为商品来研究 。 马克思说 ： 商品的价格随供需 变化围绕价值上下波动 ， 而商品的价值量由其生产所需的社会必要劳动时间决定 。 翻译成白话 ， 就是说黄金作为一种商品 ， 其 【 价值 】 由 " 必要生产成本 " 决定 ， 黄金 【 价格 】 的波动虽直接受供需变化影响 ， 但 【 价值 】 才是 【 价格 】 的最终锚定 。 因此 ， 分析金价 波动最关键的就是搞清楚两件事 ： 一个是分析不同期限下黄金的供需动 ...

编辑丨刘雪莹 金价持续剧烈波动，金店坐不住了。 记者丨曾静娇 2月6日深夜，中国黄金集团黄金珠宝股份有限公司（以下简称"中国黄金"）于微信公众号发布 公告称，自2026年2月7日起， 在周六、周日及法定节假日等上海黄金交易所非交易日期间， 公司暂停办理贵金属回购业务。 据央广网报道，知名财税审专家刘志耕分析称， 近期贵金属价格波动加剧，为黄金回购业务 带来了较大的运营风险与定价难题。 中国黄金此次调整回购业务规则，将该业务限定在交易 日办理，核心目的主要有三： 一是匹配市场价格机制，黄金价格以交易所实时报价为基准。非交易日无法获取公允市 价，暂停回购可有效避免定价争议、规避经营被动，保障业务有序运营； 二是控制企业风险敞口，在价格剧烈波动阶段，若在缺乏市价参考的情况下收购实物黄 金，企业可能因次日市场价格跳空产生显著价差损失，面临较大亏损风险，此次调整正是 企业主动做好风险防控的举措； 三是提升服务一致性，统一线上线下回购渠道的规则，不仅有助于规范服务流程、保障运 营有序，减少消费者误解，还能实现资金、库存与结算的统一管理，进一步提升整体运营 效率。 刘志耕表示，此次规则调整并非为了限制消费者权益，而是企业结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of gold buyback rules by Caibai Jewelry is a proactive risk management measure in response to increased transaction volume and market volatility, aiming to control risks associated with gold price fluctuations [6][10]. Group 1: Business Adjustments - Caibai Jewelry has moved its gold buyback operations from the fourth floor to the third floor due to a surge in sellers, indicating a significant increase in gold buyback demand [2]. - The new buyback rules include a suspension of buyback services on weekends and public holidays, as well as limits on daily buyback amounts and individual transaction caps [3][4]. - The daily buyback limit has been set to a maximum of 100 kilograms for gold and 200 kilograms for silver, with a total daily buyback cap of 100 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the announcement of the new buyback rules, Caibai's stock price rose for four consecutive days, reaching a peak of 28.35 yuan per share and a market capitalization exceeding 21.8 billion yuan [3]. - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to increased activity in gold buybacks, with significant daily price movements observed [5]. Group 3: Risk Management - The adjustments in buyback rules are part of a broader trend among financial institutions, including banks, to enhance risk management in response to market conditions [7]. - Caibai employs "T+D" contracts to hedge against gold price volatility, allowing the company to lock in prices while managing delivery timing [8][9]. - The company faces potential risks associated with the "T+D" model, including the need for additional margin payments during price fluctuations and increased operational costs due to deferred compensation fees [9].

11:56 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 謂 表 截至2月5日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1077.95吨，较前一个交易日再度减少4吨，本周累计减持幅度超过9吨。 2月5日，现货黄金又遭遇抛售，盘中更是惊现大幅跳水一幕，最低触及4760.28美元/盎司，收于4775.28美元，跌190.46美元/3.84%。相较于黄金，白银的跌 势更为猛烈，狂跌近20%，最低触及70美元关口附近。 当前总持仓 1077.95 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-02-( 1,090 1.080 1,070 1,060 1,050 1.040 1.030 2025-11-24 2025-12-11 2026-01-06 2026-01-27 黄金ETF每日持仓变化一览 l을 图表 基本面消息，受到美国软件股持续暴跌，引发更广泛的抛售潮影响，现货黄金遭遇显著的抛售压力，再加上美元指数升至接近两周高位，使以美元计价的黄 金对其他货币持有者而言变得更昂贵。这也是金价当天走低的一个推动因素。 有分析人士指出，市场将处在一个较历史水平更高的波动率环境中， ...

Core Conclusion - As of February 5, 2026, the spot price of gold in London is reported at $4934.51 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.53%. Domestic gold T+D prices are at 1109.5 yuan per gram, down 1.76%. The short-term price drop is attributed to technical corrections and market sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, gold prices are expected to show a "high-level oscillation upward" pattern, with a core range of $4800-$5400 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank gold purchases and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but caution is advised regarding inflation rebound and diminishing safe-haven sentiment [1]. Short-term Price Decline Reasons - The primary drivers of the recent gold price decline are technical corrections and short-term capital withdrawals. After a cumulative increase of over 60% in 2025, the RSI indicator reached an overbought zone at 85, leading to concentrated profit-taking. Additionally, market adjustments to the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have caused a temporary rebound in the dollar index, which has pressured gold prices [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy changes have an indirect impact on the price decline, primarily due to marginal adjustments in rate cut expectations. If economic data improves beyond expectations, the anticipated rate cuts may be delayed, leading to a short-term rise in the actual yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, increasing the holding costs of gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchasing trends have shown structural differentiation, which has not altered long-term support but has led to short-term adjustments. Monthly gold purchases are expected to remain high at 60-70 tons in 2026, with the People's Bank of China increasing holdings for 14 consecutive months, while some countries like Poland have paused purchases due to reserve limits [2]. Future Price Trends - The overall trend for gold prices in 2026 is expected to exhibit "high-level oscillation upward" characteristics, categorized into three scenarios: - Baseline scenario (50% probability) with a core range of $4800-$5400 per ounce, targeting $5000-$5100 by year-end, assuming a 75-100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a soft economic landing. - Optimistic scenario (30% probability) reaching $5400-$6000, potentially up to $6200-$6500, contingent on economic recession, rate cuts exceeding 150 basis points, and escalated geopolitical risks. - Pessimistic scenario (20% probability) retreating to $4150-$4800, with extreme lows of $4000, driven by inflation rebound or renewed rate hikes [3]. - The core logic supporting long-term gold price increases includes accelerated de-dollarization, an expanding supply-demand gap, and weakened U.S. dollar credibility due to rising national debt [3]. Quarterly Price Trends - Quarterly price movements are expected to follow a clear path: - Q1 (January-March) oscillating up to $5100-$5400, supported by initial rate cuts and seasonal demand. - Q2 (April-June) steadily rising to $5300-$5600, benefiting from further rate cuts and supply shortages. - Q3 (July-September) potentially breaking through $5600-$6000, reliant on rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and ETF dynamics. - Q4 (October-December) stabilizing at $5800-$6000, supported by year-end allocation demands and central bank purchasing [5]. Investment Practical Advice - Ordinary investors are advised to allocate 5%-15% of their total assets to gold. A phased investment approach is recommended as prices dip to the $4800-$5100 per ounce range, focusing on central bank purchases and U.S. dollar credit logic while ignoring short-term fluctuations [6]. - For different gold investment tools, low-premium options are preferred, with investment bars being the first choice. ETFs are suitable for liquidity and low cost, while futures are recommended for professional investors with caution regarding leverage risks [6].

格隆汇2月5日｜现货黄金亚盘持续回落，今日国内黄金饰品价格对比显示，多家金饰价格较昨日普遍出 现回落，其中，周生生足金饰品报1558元/克，较前一日1600元/克跌42元。 ...

| 当日价 | 1570 | | --- | --- | | 日涨幅 | 4.81% | | 最高价 | 1570 | | 最低价 | 1484 | | 顶位差 | 0 | | 底位差 | 86 | | 平均值 | 1517 | 周生生黄金价格月度统计（2月2日-2月4日，单位：元/克） 2月4日，周生生黄金价格报1570元/克，与昨日（1498元/克）相比，上涨了72元/克，涨幅4.81%，与本 月初（1484元/克）相比，上涨了86元/克，涨幅5.80%。较本月最高价相差0元/克，较本月最低价相差86 元/克，均价1517元/克。 周生生 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 14.12 0.17 1.22% 3.37% 2.22% 1.15% 0.00% 1.15% 2.22% 3.37% 13.48 13.64 13.79 13.95 14.11 14.26 14.42 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 3万 5万 8万 摘要2月4日，周生生黄金价格报1570元/克，与昨日（1498元/克）相比，上涨了72元/克，涨幅4.81%， 与本月初（1484元/克）相比，上 ...