距离美国联邦政府资金彻底耗尽已不足24小时。 眼下，尽管共和党控制着国会和白宫，但根据参议院规则，他们至少需要60票才能通过支出法案。共和党在参议院有53个席位，也就是说想要美国政府 不"关门"，他们必须说服至少7位民主党人"倒戈"。 一旦临时拨款法案在9月30日午夜前仍无法通过，美国联邦政府"关门"将造成什么影响？ 据了解，上世纪70年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有20多次。上一次、也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在特朗普 首个总统任期内。当时大约四分之一的联邦政府机构"关门"持续五周，殃及80多万名政府雇员，经济损失估计超过100亿美元。 市场方面，美股三大股指小幅低开，截至发稿，道指跌0.01%，纳指跌0.16%，标普500指数跌0.11%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨近1%。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，一旦美联邦政府"关门"，可能导致大量联邦雇员被裁。他还表示，若不满意军方将领，将"当 场解职"。 为避免联邦政府停摆，在9月29日晚间，特朗普在白宫会见国会两党领袖，讨论临时拨款法案。这次会谈被视为在10月1日凌晨美国联邦政府停摆大限到来 之前， ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储柯林斯：在美国政府停摆期间美联储将照常操作。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to a budget impasse between the two major political parties, with a deadline approaching on October 1 [1][5][6] - The budget process is complicated by the U.S. fiscal year running from October 1 to September 30, leading to annual conflicts over budget approvals [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's operations are not directly affected by a government shutdown, as it operates independently and does not rely on congressional appropriations [10][13] Group 1: Budget Impasse - The Democratic Party is advocating for extended subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, while the Republican Party is focused on budget cuts to healthcare [5] - A vote is scheduled for September 30, and failure to pass the budget will result in a government shutdown starting that evening [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Operations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next meeting on October 28-29, during a potential government shutdown period [8] - Despite a government shutdown, the Federal Reserve staff will continue to work, as it is not a subordinate department of the government [10][13] Group 3: Impact on Economic Data - A government shutdown may delay the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payroll and CPI data, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [15][16] - The inability to access timely economic data could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates instead of proceeding with anticipated cuts [15][17]

智通财经APP了解到，美国政府近日面临停摆风险，如果真的停摆，美元将面临明确风险。历史表明， 在2013年、2018年初以及2018年底至2019年初这三次最近停摆事件中，彭博美元现货指数在僵局持续期 间及刚结束后均出现下行走势。 其中，2018年12月至次年1月长达35天的停摆，令美元下跌最为严重，这一案例也凸显出：停摆持续时 间越长，对美元的负面影响越大。 在那次停摆期间，美元累计下跌约2%。而当前(可能面临停摆前)，美元已连续第三个交易日下跌，期间 累计跌幅达0.6%。 从汇率波动率来看，欧元兑美元期权的隐含波动率往往在停摆前上升，这表明交易员会迅速将动荡风险 纳入定价。但实际波动率的表现却有所不同： 在此背景下，未来一个月的期权市场对美元的情绪已回落至中性，上周微弱的看涨倾向已完全消失，这 一变化并不意外。 - 2018年1月停摆时，预期与实际相符，实际波动率与隐含波动率几乎完全同步; - 与之形成对比的是，2018-2019年那次长期停摆期间，期权定价已反映出动荡预期，但这一预期从未完 全兑现——因为在僵局持续的大部分时间里，实际波动率始终处于低位。 美国副总统JD·万斯(JD Vance)表示，他 ...

经济观察网 据央视新闻，美国联邦政府资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜耗尽，政府再次陷入停摆危机。 当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普在白宫会见了参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默、参议院共和党领袖约翰·图 恩、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊及众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯，讨论防止联邦政府停摆的措施。据 美国媒体报道，国会两党领导人在会见特朗普后纷纷对媒体表示，双方存在巨大分歧，谈判进展甚微。 对美国公众而言，政府"关门"，几乎成了美国财政年度更迭时的"惯常戏码"。 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders aims to discuss measures to prevent a government shutdown, with both parties currently at an impasse [1][2] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the possibility of a government shutdown, attributing the responsibility to the Democrats, while the Vice President stated that the decision lies with them [1] - Senate Minority Leader Schumer insists on including the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act in the agreement to avoid a shutdown, blaming Republicans for not engaging in serious negotiations [1] Group 2 - Senate Majority Leader Thune accused Democrats of "playing with fire" and holding the government and the American people hostage [2] - House Speaker Johnson plans to urge Democrats to abandon partisan demands that could lead to a government shutdown during the meeting with Trump [2] - A deadline of September 30 at 11:59 PM is set for Congress to reach an agreement to ensure government operations continue, requiring at least seven Democratic votes in the Senate to pass the temporary funding bill [2]

Core Points - The US government is facing a potential shutdown due to disagreements among lawmakers regarding federal spending priorities [1] - Democrats are advocating for the restoration of Medicaid funding and the extension of ACA subsidies [1] - Republicans are insisting on a clean resolution that does not include the aforementioned provisions [1] Summary by Category Government Spending - Lawmakers are clashing over federal spending priorities as the September 30 deadline approaches [1] - The conflict centers around the inclusion of Medicaid funding and ACA subsidies in the spending resolution [1] Political Dynamics - Democrats are pushing for specific healthcare funding measures, while Republicans are focused on a straightforward resolution [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, which could impact the upcoming non-farm payroll report and subsequently affect economic assessments and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2] - Investors are awaiting key economic data, including job vacancies, private employment figures, and the ISM manufacturing PMI, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy before the non-farm payroll report [1] - There is a significant expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again in October, with a probability of about 80%, contingent on the labor market showing further weakness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials exhibit differing views on monetary policy, with some calling for substantial rate cuts to address a potentially divided labor market [2] - Analysts suggest that if the labor market remains weak, the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and a weak economic outlook may hinder any meaningful recovery of the dollar [3]

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On the 29th, international spot gold prices peaked at $3,819.81 per ounce, marking a significant milestone [1]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, reported an increase in holdings from 996.85 tons to 1,005.72 tons, a rise of 0.89% [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 45%, influenced by central bank demand and the Fed's renewed interest rate cuts [6]. Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The softening of the dollar is attributed to ongoing discussions between U.S. Congress leaders and President Trump regarding government funding [3]. - A potential government shutdown could delay key employment data, complicating the Fed's monetary policy outlook [4]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December [4]. Group 3: Broader Precious Metals Market - Silver prices reached their highest level since 2011 on the 29th, reflecting broader trends in precious metals [6]. - Analysts from Barclays suggest that gold prices appear reasonable compared to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating gold's role as a value hedge [6]. - Predictions from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank suggest that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices have steadily risen, reaching approximately $3,750, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - On September 29, gold prices broke historical records, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, with a monthly increase of about $350 and a daily rise of over 1% [1] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, rising over $1.00 to $47.1 per ounce, reflecting a 2.2% increase, supported by tight supply and inflows into precious metal ETFs [1] Group 2 - The market's expectation of moderate inflation has reinforced bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [2] - The potential partial shutdown of the U.S. government due to unpassed funding bills has increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver [2] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar around 98.00 has made gold and silver more attractive to overseas buyers, further supporting their price increases [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold maintains a bullish outlook, with key resistance levels between $3,800 and $3,810, while initial support is at $3,722 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold shows overbought conditions, suggesting potential for technical consolidation or a pullback before a new upward trend [3] - Silver has shown a strong short-term trend, with support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance at $47.00 and $48.00, indicating a potential for further testing of historical highs [4]