1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] - Date: April 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Core View: Maintenance season eases supply pressure, while seasonal demand weakening brews downward risks [5] 2. Market Review - In February, plastics were slightly stronger than PP. In March, the peak season started, downstream开工 increased, and the demand side was strengthened. Mid - to late - March saw high - level maintenance ease supply pressure, and the cost side rebounded. PP05 was supported at 7300, and LLDPE fluctuated around 7700 [11]. - In the spot market, LLDPE monthly average price was 8197 yuan/ton, down 1.35% month - on - month and 0.91% year - on - year. LDPE was 9976 yuan/ton, down 1.60% month - on - month and up 7.80% year - on - year. HDPE prices varied. PP in East China had a drawstring average of 7347.25 yuan/ton, down 0.72% month - on - month and 1.38% year - on - year, and copolymer was 7593.25 yuan/ton, down 0.94% month - on - month and 0.04% year - on - year [12]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Supply - In March 2025, PP production was estimated at 3.2833 million tons, up 11.52% month - on - month and 13.64% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to March was 9.5209 million tons, up 12.13% year - on - year. The PP plant operating rate was estimated at 79.66%, up 0.58 percentage points from February [12]. - PE production in March was estimated at 2.6685 million tons, up 7.06% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The operating rate was estimated at 81.97%, down 1.72 percentage points from last month. There were some PE plant overhauls in March [13]. - New polyolefin production capacities are planned to be put into operation in 2025, with many concentrated in the first half of the year [25][26]. 3.2 Import and Export - In February 2025, PE imports were 1.3252 million tons, up 9.43% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year. PP imports were 307,900 tons, up 15.93% month - on - month. From January to February, PP exports increased significantly, while PE exports decreased [27]. - In March, the import window was difficult to open, and PP exports were expected to remain high [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Currently in the destocking cycle, inventory pressure was prominent in the early stage and eased in the middle and late stages. By the end of March, PP producer inventory decreased by 6.13% month - on - month, and trader inventory decreased by 16.46% month - on - month. PE social sample average inventory decreased by 2.69% month - on - month and 17.53% year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Coal: In the off - season, coal prices were under pressure, but there was support during the spring inspection in April [43]. - Crude oil: OPEC+ supply decreased, and US sanctions tightened supply. Oil prices were expected to bottom out and rebound [43]. - Oil - based production: Losses in oil - based PP decreased, and naphtha - based PE profits increased [44]. - Coal - based production: Profits of coal - based PP and PE increased [44]. - PDH - based production: Losses in PDH - based PP decreased [45]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - In March, downstream开工 continued to increase, but subsequent orders were insufficient. PP downstream开工 increased, but demand support was limited [51][54]. - From January to February 2025, the domestic sales market was good. After the national subsidy policy was extended, consumer sentiment was cautious. In April, the production of air - conditioners increased, while that of refrigerators decreased and that of washing machines slightly increased [62]. 4. Outlook - In the short term, it is a volatile market as maintenance eases supply pressure and cost support exists. In the long term, supply pressure and tariff impacts may drag down prices, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [7][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10, while the current price is HKD 8.66 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 6.246 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.807 billion for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% and 6.3% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 778 million, showing a decrease of 15.2% [2][7]. - The fourth quarter results showed revenue and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.142 billion and USD 228 million respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% and 7.2% [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, which is a 7% increase, resulting in a payout ratio of 103.25% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Budweiser APAC's total sales volume decreased by 8.8%, with a significant decline in the Chinese market, where sales volume and price per ton saw year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 1.4% respectively [6][7]. - The company experienced a mixed performance across regions, with the Asia Pacific West region facing challenges while the Asia Pacific East region showed strong growth, particularly in South Korea [6][7]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 50.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, the company aims to prioritize market share recovery and has implemented significant management changes to drive this strategy. The new leadership is expected to bring renewed energy to the company's operations [6][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and increase marketing expenditures, particularly in key regions such as Fujian and Guangdong [6][7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to USD 815 million, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18 times [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM industry revenue exceeded $28 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 9.9% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by rising contract prices for Server DDR5 and concentrated shipments of HBM products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The average selling prices for most application products have reversed and declined, with the exception of increased procurement of high-capacity Server DDR5 by US CSPs, which supported the continued price increase of Server DRAM [1] - In Q1 2025, a seasonal decline in overall shipments is expected, with DRAM suppliers likely to reduce production capacity for DDR4 and some HBM products, leading to a forecasted drop in contract prices for general DRAM and combined HBM products [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Samsung reported a revenue increase of 5.1% to $11.25 billion in Q4 2024, maintaining its leading market share at 39.3%, despite a slight decline [2] - SK hynix's revenue rose 16.9% to $10.46 billion in Q4 2024, with a market share increase to 36.6%, reflecting strong HBM3e shipment growth [3] - Micron's revenue increased by 10.8% to $6.4 billion, with stable market share, driven by growth in Server DRAM and HBM3e shipments [3] - Other DRAM manufacturers, such as Nanya and Winbond, experienced revenue declines due to weakened consumer demand, with Nanya's revenue down 19.3% to $203 million and Winbond's down 22.4% to $119 million [3]