Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Old memory super cycle unlikely to reverse in near future November 20, 2025 05:46 AM GMT What's new? According to a report in Digitimes today, CXMT (private) will increase capacity for DDR4/LPDDR4, and will "accelerate" DDR5/LPDDR5 supply to alleviate shortages in 2-3 months. The company has not commented. Our take: We were surprised by this newsflow, as we think it is unlikely for CXMT to switch back to DDR4/LPDDR4 given the changes ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant impact of chip shortages on memory prices, predicting a further increase of approximately 50% by Q2 2026, particularly affecting traditional LPDDR4 [4][5] - Counterpoint Research highlights that memory prices have already risen by 50% this year, with expectations of an additional 30% increase by Q4 2025 and around 20% early next year [5] - The shift in demand towards advanced memory solutions, particularly due to Nvidia's increased need for LPDDR, poses broader risks to the consumer electronics market [5][6] Memory Price Trends - The current market shows a price inversion where DDR5 is trading at approximately $1.50 per Gb, while older DDR4 is priced at $2.10 per Gb, exceeding the $1.70 for advanced HBM3e [5] - Counterpoint forecasts a more than 20% increase in DRAM production from major chip manufacturers by 2026 [6] Advanced Memory Risks - The article emphasizes that the real risk lies in advanced memory, as Nvidia's transition to LPDDR has created a demand comparable to that of large smartphone manufacturers, straining the supply chain [6] - The expected price increase for DDR5 64GB RDIMM DRAM modules is projected to double between Q1 2025 and the end of 2026 due to supply constraints [6] Impact on Smartphone Market - The shortage primarily affects mid to low-end smartphone markets, with potential ripple effects across the entire smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem [9] - The bill of materials (BOM) costs for smartphones are expected to rise significantly, with some models seeing increases of up to 15%, which could compress profit margins and hinder growth [10] Macro Risks - The industry faces dual pressures from limited capacity and soaring prices, compounded by macro risks such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and employment trends, leading to increased uncertainty [10]

据智通财经主题库显示，相关上市公司中： Counterpoint咨询发布研究报告，受关键芯片短缺影响，内存价格预计将在2026年第二季度之前，在当 前基础上再上涨约50%。目前，传统LPDDR4面临的涨价风险最大。同时，随着英伟达在服务器端大幅 提升对LPDDR的需求，围绕先进芯片出现了更广泛、更长期的风险因素，从而向整个消费电子市场外 溢。 招商证券认为，进入2025年三季度以来存储行业全面进入加速上行周期，不同于此前供给侧减产或退出 带来的价格短暂上行，本轮存储行业上行周期主要系AI时代下存储需求爆发推动，同时供给侧产能开 出有限，因此行业供需缺口持续扩大，价格加速上涨。在此背景下，海外存储原厂盈利能力持续提升， 国内部分存储模组公司快速扭亏为盈，2025年下半年利润预计将加速释放，利基存储芯片和存储产业链 配套公司亦将持续受益于存储涨价浪潮。 东芯股份在目前已有的DDR3(L)、LPDDR1、LPDDR2产品基础上，持续推进新产品的研发工作。公司 设计研发的LPDDR4x已进行客户送样及市场推广。 北京君正在互动平台表示，LPDDR4目前25nm、20nm和18nm、16nm的产品都有。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，11月19日，Counterpoint咨询发布研究报告，受关键芯片短缺影响，内存价格预 计将在2026年第二季度之前，在当前基础上再上涨约50%。目前，传统LPDDR4面临的涨价风险最大。 同时，随着英伟达在服务器端大幅提升对LPDDR的需求，围绕先进芯片出现了更广泛、更长期的风险 因素，从而向整个消费电子市场外溢。 （原标题：Counterpoint：在2026年第二季度之前 内存价格预计将再上涨约50%） ...

Summary of Beijing Junzheng's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beijing Junzheng - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on storage chips, computing chips, and analog/interconnect chips Key Points Financial Performance - **Q3 Revenue**: Slight decline in total revenue, but storage chip business showed strong performance with a year-on-year growth exceeding 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 3% [2][3] - **Total Revenue for First Three Quarters**: Reached 2.1 billion RMB, primarily benefiting from the upward cycle in the storage market and acceptance of DRAM price increases by industry clients [2] - **Gross Margin and Net Profit**: Decreased due to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar and intensified competition in the computing chip market. An improvement in gross margin is expected with the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar and a favorable storage cycle [2][8][9] Market Dynamics - **Storage Chip Applications**: Dominated by automotive and industrial sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of applications, with a recovery trend observed in both markets [2][6] - **Price Trends**: Industry-level storage product prices remain higher than consumer-level products, similar to the market conditions in 2021. Recent price increases are primarily driven by DRAM due to capacity issues [7][5] - **NOR Flash Pricing**: Significant upward trend in prices due to increased demand and tight supply, expected to continue for some time [2][17] Product Development - **DRAM Product Planning**: New products in 18nm, 16nm, and 20nm processes for DDR4 and LPDDR4 are expected to begin mass production next year, with a significant increase in their proportion of sales [2][16] - **Analog and Interconnect Chips**: The business is expected to grow, particularly in the automotive sector, with multiple new models being introduced annually [22] Future Outlook - **Performance Expectations**: The company anticipates Q4 2024 to be a turning point, with revenue expected to improve quarterly starting in 2025, driven by the storage cycle, new DRAM products, and AI-driven growth in the computing chip market [4][20][29] - **Market Recovery**: The overseas market, including Europe and the US, is showing signs of recovery compared to last year, with overall demand improving [14] Strategic Initiatives - **IPO Plans**: The company is in the process of applying for a Hong Kong IPO, which has led to some restrictions on information disclosure [9] - **Inventory Management**: The company has been increasing inventory since last year, focusing on DRAM, NOR Flash, and SRAM, to ensure supply stability [12] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: The computing chip market is experiencing intense competition, which has affected margins. However, the company is preparing for potential price adjustments in response to market trends [20][21] - **AI Integration**: The company is optimistic about the future, particularly in AI applications, and is developing AI MCU products to meet growing demands [24][26] Additional Insights - **Impact of Price Increases on Demand**: Historically, price increases have not suppressed demand; instead, they have sometimes stimulated it, as seen in the 2021 price surge [21] - **Robotics Applications**: The company’s chips are being utilized in various robotics applications, indicating a significant market direction [27] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, product developments, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip sector is experiencing significant activity driven by increased demand from AI, data centers, and end-user storage, leading to price hikes from major manufacturers [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Storage chip concept stocks surged on the 16th, with notable gains including Yunhan Chip City up 20%, Shannon Chip Innovation rising over 15%, and other companies like Demingli and Ruineng Technology hitting their price limits [1] - Biwei Storage saw an increase of nearly 8%, reaching a new high during the trading session [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - SanDisk has raised NAND flash prices by approximately 10%, affecting both consumer and enterprise products, continuing the upward trend since April [1] - Samsung Electronics notified major clients of planned price increases for DRAM by 15%-30% and NAND flash by 5%-10% for the fourth quarter [1] - Micron Technology temporarily suspended pricing for all DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 storage products, with prices generally increasing by about 20% upon resumption [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - East China Securities indicated that the current price increases reflect a surge in demand for storage chips in key areas such as AI technology and data centers, suggesting ongoing monitoring of storage chip price trends [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Jiangsu Jinkai and Industry Insights Company Overview - Jiangsu Jinkai reported a revenue of 91.2015 million yuan and a net profit of 13.549 million yuan for 2024, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 52.1149 million yuan. For the first four months of 2025, revenue was 16.5418 million yuan, with a net loss of 3.72 million yuan due to seasonal impacts, and a net cash flow of 5.9641 million yuan [2][5][6]. Key Financial Metrics - Performance commitments for Jiangsu Jinkai from 2025 to 2028 include net profits of no less than 1 million yuan, 35 million yuan, 48 million yuan, and 61 million yuan respectively, with an average commitment of no less than 48 million yuan per year for the last three years [2][5]. - The acquisition price for 100% equity of Jiangsu Jinkai is valued at 480 million yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 10 times the average committed net profit for 2026-2028, which is below the average valuation level of peer companies [2][5]. Industry Dynamics - The acquisition aims to capitalize on opportunities in the storage industry during the AI computing era, enhancing integrated cost quality control and customer responsiveness [2][5]. - Jiangsu Jinkai's main clients include Yingmeng Holdings (approximately 70% market share), Zhaoyi Innovation, and Chengdu Xingtai, with expected production capacity reaching approximately 3.5KK to 4KK per month in the coming years [2][6]. Technological Advantages - Jiangsu Jinkai employs a "secondary classification" technology that enhances yield rates and overall production efficiency, which is currently unique in the domestic market [3][7]. - The company focuses on DRAM products, which have a higher detection difficulty compared to NAND Flash, and plans to launch Mobile HBM and CXL module products in 2026 [4][16][20]. Competitive Positioning - Jiangsu Jinkai's gross margin averages between 20% and 25%, which is higher than its peers by several percentage points [4][9]. - The merger with Yingmeng Holdings will allow for a comprehensive business model covering product application design, packaging, and finished product testing, providing a competitive edge in wafer sorting testing and SOC binding [4][11]. Future Projections - Jiangsu Jinkai anticipates a business scale of approximately 1 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2026, reaching 2 to 3 billion yuan in 2027, with a goal of achieving 3 to 5 billion yuan within three years [4][13]. - The company aims to maintain a higher gross margin compared to similar testing and packaging companies, leveraging customized testing solutions and equipment [14][15]. Market Challenges - The storage industry is capital and technology-intensive, requiring substantial funding to become a significant player. Direct procurement relationships with major manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi limit Jiangsu Jinkai's growth potential [12]. Client Relationships - Current major clients include Zhaoyi Innovation and Chengdu Electric Investment Chip, with a focus on fulfilling Yingmeng Holdings' needs before expanding to other potential clients like Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage [10]. Conclusion - Jiangsu Jinkai is positioned to leverage its technological advantages and strategic partnerships to enhance its market presence and profitability in the rapidly evolving storage industry driven by AI computing demands.

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 62.5% of Jiangsu Jingkai Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. for 300 million yuan marks a significant step for Dike Co., Ltd. in the storage chip industry, aiming to enhance its integrated capabilities in chip application development, wafer testing, and packaging and testing, seizing opportunities in the AI computing power era [1][6] Group 1: Industry Growth and Market Potential - The global DRAM market is projected to grow from 155.1 billion USD in 2024 to 413.9 billion USD by 2029, driven by demand in smartphones, AI servers, automotive electronics, and data centers [2] - The AI computing demand and the wave of smart terminal devices are creating a "super cycle" of growth in the storage industry, leading to persistent shortages and price surges in storage chips [2] Group 2: Strategic Acquisition and Synergies - Jiangsu Jingkai is one of the few companies in China with a complete storage chip packaging and testing service chain, enhancing Dike's capabilities in wafer testing and packaging [3] - The acquisition will provide "dual empowerment" for Dike's storage industry chain, with Jiangsu Jingkai's testing capabilities supporting Yimeng Holdings and vice versa, creating a collaborative development environment [3] Group 3: Valuation and Performance Assurance - The acquisition price of Jiangsu Jingkai was determined to be 4.8 billion yuan for 100% equity, with a purchase price of 300 million yuan for 62.5% equity, based on professional asset evaluation [4] - Performance commitments from Jiangsu Jingkai's original shareholders include a cumulative net profit of 145 million yuan from 2025 to 2028, with specific compensation mechanisms in place to ensure performance delivery [4] Group 4: Financial Impact and Future Outlook - The acquisition will be funded through the company's own or raised funds, ensuring no significant pressure on daily operations and cash flow [6] - The collaboration between Jiangsu Jingkai and Yimeng Holdings is expected to enhance revenue and profitability in Dike's storage segment, aligning with the long-term interests of shareholders [6]

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology (MU.US) experienced a significant price increase, rising over 4% to reach a historical high of $174.2, driven by a new wave of price surges in the global memory chip market due to supply-demand imbalance, technological advancements, and geopolitical factors [1] Industry Summary - The memory chip market is currently witnessing a price surge, with analysts optimistic about the industry's outlook for the next two years [1] - The first wave of price increases in the memory market began in early April 2025, initiated by SanDisk's price hike notification to customers [1] - In September, a second wave of price increases was confirmed when SanDisk announced a price increase of over 10% for all its products [1] - Recently, Micron Technology notified its channel partners of a price increase of 20%-30% for its memory products, effective from September 12, with all pricing for DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 products halted and agreements with customers suspended [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global memory chip market is experiencing a new wave of price surges driven by supply-demand imbalance, technological advancements, and geopolitical factors, leading to a "super cycle" of rising volume and prices in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 30, the A-share memory chip sector saw significant price increases, with stocks like Jiangbolong rising over 18% to reach a historical high, and several other companies also experiencing gains exceeding 10% [1]. - Major semiconductor stocks in the U.S. also surged, with SanDisk up nearly 17%, Western Digital rising over 9%, and Micron Technology increasing by more than 4% [3]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The first round of price increases in the storage market began in April 2025, initiated by SanDisk's price hike announcement, followed by a second round in September where SanDisk announced a price increase of over 10% for all products [3]. - Micron Technology also notified channel partners of a price increase of 20%-30% for its storage products, indicating a strong price-driven market [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts believe that the memory chip sector is a core area within the technology sector, with both short-term price elasticity and long-term domestic substitution potential [3]. - According to a report from CITIC Securities, the positive outlook for the memory market is expected to continue at least until the second quarter of 2026, driven by increased capital expenditure from North American CSPs and rising HDD demand [5].