2025 年 08 月 25 日 江波龙 (301308) ——25Q2 营收 59 亿元创历史新高，毛利率 14.8%环比 显著提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,464 | 10,196 | 20,311 | 23,440 | 25,025 | | 同比增长率（%） | 72.5 | 12.8 | 16.3 | 15.4 | 6.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 499 | 15 | 615 | 785 | 1,120 | | 同比增长率（%） | - | -97.5 | 23.4 | 27.6 | 42.8 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.04 | 1.47 | 1.87 | 2.67 | | 毛利率（%） | 19.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.8 | | ROE（%） | 7.7 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 1 ...

Group 1: DDR Market Insights - The DDR4 market is expected to face a structural shortage and significant price increases in the second half of 2025 due to strong demand from server orders, which are squeezing supply for PC and consumer markets [2] - Price increases for DDR4 and LPDDR4X are projected, with consumer DDR4 prices expected to rise by 85-90% in Q3 2025, marking a substantial increase [3] Group 2: Electronic Industry Trends - The global electronic industry is anticipated to show a divergence in growth, with AI server demand driving growth in 2025, while smartphones, laptops, and other consumer electronics face growth challenges due to inflation and lack of innovation [3] - A slowdown in overall electronic industry growth is expected in 2026, entering a low-growth adjustment period [3] Group 3: OLED Display Market - Strong demand from the esports sector is projected to drive an 86% year-on-year increase in OLED display shipments in 2025, with a shift in market share from North America to Europe and China [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The niche DRAM market is undergoing a supply-demand reshaping, driven by AI and domestic substitution opportunities, indicating a sustained market outlook [3][22] - The niche DRAM market is not only a stock market but also a growth market, with the market size expected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2024 to $12.2 billion in 2026 [8][18] - The supply gap for DDR4 and LPDDR4 is expected to persist, benefiting Tier 2 suppliers like Zhaoyi Innovation [21][22] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies to focus on include Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Fudan Microelectronics, and others [3][22] Market Dynamics - The demand for DDR4 and LPDDR4 remains stable across various sectors, including consumer electronics, industrial, and automotive markets [8][12] - The contract prices for DDR4 are expected to continue rising, with projected increases of 38%-43% in the PC market and 40%-45% in the consumer market for Q3 [12][15] - NAND product prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with increases of 17.4% and 15.6% for specific NAND Flash products since June [9][12] Supply Chain Insights - Major manufacturers are exiting the DDR4 and LPDDR4 markets, leading to a supply shortage that is expected to drive prices up [21][22] - The ongoing production cuts by Micron are anticipated to exacerbate the LPDDR4 shortage, with price increases expected [12][17] Market Growth Projections - The niche DRAM market is projected to grow significantly, with AI applications driving demand for higher data processing and storage capabilities [18][19] - The overall market for niche DRAM is expected to see a substantial increase in demand due to advancements in technology and new application scenarios [18][19]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing a significant shift from oversupply to a supply-demand imbalance, with prices rising sharply, including a 53% increase in DDR4 prices in May, the largest since 2017 [1] - The overall DRAM market price index has increased by 47.7% since early 2025, with a 19.5% rise in June alone, driven by both traditional DRAM and high-value server DRAM [1][7] - The transition to DDR5 is becoming a trend as major DRAM manufacturers shift capacity towards higher-end products, leading to increased demand for older generation products [2] Group 2: Company Positioning - Jiangbolong has developed a comprehensive range of enterprise storage products, including SATA eSSD, PCIe eSSD, RDIMM, and MRDIMM, and reported a revenue increase of over 200% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end consumer and enterprise-level DDR5 product mass production to meet the growing demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth, and low-power memory products in gaming, servers, and industrial automation [2][3] - Jiangbolong has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Sandisk to integrate resources and enhance its position in the embedded storage market, aiming to increase market share in high-end storage solutions [4] Group 3: Innovation and Business Model - Jiangbolong has introduced innovative business models such as PTM (Product Technology Manufacturing) and TCM (Technology Contract Manufacturing), which provide new commercial strategies for the storage industry [5][6] - The TCM model has received positive feedback from storage wafer manufacturers and key clients, facilitating collaboration with Tier 1 clients like Transsion and ZTE [6] - The company is leveraging its self-developed core technologies to enhance product differentiation and improve visibility in supply and demand, thereby mitigating price volatility [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The storage sector is expected to see continued price increases, with general DRAM prices projected to rise by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, and overall DRAM prices, including HBM, expected to increase by 15% to 20% [7] - The domestic storage market is anticipated to grow further, with an increasing localization rate for high-difficulty and high-speed products, presenting opportunities for industry players [7]

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Storage's submission for IPO guidance marks a significant milestone for China's semiconductor industry, indicating its ambition to enter the A-share market and enhance its position in the DRAM sector [2][3] Company Overview - Changxin Storage has a registered capital of 60.19 billion yuan and was valued at 150.8 billion yuan in its latest financing round in March 2024 [2] - The company has no actual controlling shareholder and boasts a strong lineup of investors, including major players like Tencent, Alibaba, and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [2] - As the largest and most advanced DRAM chip manufacturer in China, Changxin Storage has successfully mass-produced various DRAM products, including DDR4, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5, with plans to produce HBM3 high-bandwidth memory by 2025-2026 [2] Market Position - The global DRAM market is currently dominated by South Korean and American companies, with SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron holding 36%, 34%, and 25% market shares respectively, totaling 95% [3] - Changxin Storage has achieved a 6% market share in DRAM shipments as of Q1 2025, with expectations to increase this to 8% by the end of the year [3] - The company is accelerating its technological advancements to close the 3-4 year gap with leading global competitors [3] Industry Impact - The IPO of Changxin Storage is anticipated to have a positive ripple effect on the entire domestic storage industry chain, promoting the localization of equipment and benefiting related sectors such as packaging, testing, and IC substrates [3] - The successful listing of Changxin Storage is expected to position it as the "first stock of storage chips" in the A-share market, further solidifying China's semiconductor industry on the global stage [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - Changxin Storage has initiated its IPO process, with expectations of a 50% year-on-year increase in DRAM shipments, raising its market share from 6% to 8% by Q4 [5]. - Domestic advanced process expansion is exceeding expectations, benefiting local equipment manufacturers, with new project launches anticipated in the upcoming technology iteration cycle [5]. - The report highlights the activation of the third phase of the National Big Fund, which aims to focus on critical technology breakthroughs and industry consolidation [5]. - The report recommends key players in various segments, including platform equipment manufacturers and packaging testing equipment providers, indicating a diversified investment approach [5]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a significant increase in domestic DRAM production, with Changxin Storage's market share in DDR5 expected to rise from less than 1% to 7% by year-end [5]. - The report notes ongoing advancements in mature processes, with technology iterations in nodes such as 90nm, 65nm, and 40nm driving new equipment demand [5]. - The IPO applications from domestic GPU companies signal a growing interest and investment in the semiconductor space, with substantial fundraising goals set [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant milestone of Changxin Technology Group's (Changxin Storage) submission for an IPO in the A-share market, marking a pivotal moment for China's semiconductor industry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Changxin Storage has a registered capital of 60.19 billion yuan and was valued at 150.8 billion yuan in its latest financing round in March 2024 [3]. - The company has no actual controlling shareholder and boasts a strong lineup of investors, including major players like Tencent, Alibaba, and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [3]. Market Position - Currently, Changxin Storage is the largest and most advanced DRAM chip manufacturer in China, having successfully mass-produced various DRAM products such as DDR4, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 [3]. - The company plans to start mass production of HBM3 high bandwidth memory between the end of 2025 and 2026 [3]. Competitive Landscape - The global DRAM market is dominated by South Korean and American companies, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology holding 36%, 34%, and 25% market shares respectively, totaling 95% [4]. - Experts estimate that Changxin Storage may still have a technology gap of 3-4 years compared to these leading firms, but its technology is rapidly advancing [4]. Growth Potential - Changxin Storage's DRAM shipment market share reached 6% in Q1 2025, with expectations to increase to 8% by the end of the year [4]. - The demand for storage chips is expected to grow significantly due to emerging fields like new computing and smart vehicles, providing substantial room for domestic replacement in China [4]. Industry Impact - The IPO of Changxin Storage is anticipated to have a positive ripple effect on the entire domestic storage industry chain, promoting the localization of equipment and benefiting related sectors such as packaging, testing, and IC substrates [4]. - If successful, Changxin Storage will become the first storage chip stock in A-shares, representing a significant event for the capital market and a strategic move in China's tech competition [4].

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Storage Technology Co., Ltd. has officially initiated its listing process by signing a listing guidance agreement with Guotai Junan Securities, marking a significant step for this domestic storage chip leader valued at over 100 billion RMB [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Changxin Storage, along with Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd., forms the dual engines of China's storage chip industry, challenging the dominance of global giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron [1] - As the only large-scale DRAM producer in China, Changxin Storage focuses on an integrated model of design, research and development, and production (IDM), with its headquarters in Hefei, Anhui [1] - The company has launched multiple commercial DRAM products based on 19nm process technology, covering mainstream applications such as DDR4 and LPDDR4, widely used in mobile devices, PCs, servers, VR/AR, and IoT [1] Group 2: Financial and Market Position - By the end of 2023, Changxin Storage had completed five rounds of financing, raising over 20 billion RMB, with investors including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, Jian Guang Asset, and Huaden International [2] - The strategic intent behind the listing guidance is to leverage capital market support for accelerated development, aiming for greater market share in the global storage chip market [2] - A successful listing would enhance the autonomy and market influence of domestic storage chip supply chains and significantly impact the competitive landscape of the global storage chip industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Storage has initiated its listing guidance with the support of China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Construction Investment, indicating a significant step towards becoming a publicly traded company [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (Changxin Storage) was established on June 13, 2016, with a registered capital of approximately 6.02 billion yuan [3]. - The company specializes in the design, research and development, production, and sales of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips [4][5]. - The CEO, Dr. Cao Kanyu, has over 20 years of experience in the semiconductor industry and has played a crucial role in the development of Changxin Storage's DRAM products [5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Projections - According to Counterpoint, Changxin Storage's DRAM shipment volume is expected to increase by 50% year-on-year, with its market share rising from 6% in Q1 to 8% by Q4 [3]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in both traditional DDR4 and LPDDR4 products, as well as in the newer DDR5 and LPDDR5 segments, with market shares projected to rise from less than 1% to 7% and from 0.5% to 9%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Shareholding Structure - Changxin Storage has 49 shareholders, with the largest being Hefei Qinghui Collective Investment Management Partnership, holding 21.67% of the shares [3][6]. - Notable shareholders include Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhaoyi Innovation Technology Group Co., Ltd., which recently increased its stake to approximately 1.88% after a 1.5 billion yuan investment [6][8]. Group 4: Recent Financing - The latest round of strategic financing for Changxin Storage occurred in March 2024, raising 10.8 billion yuan, with a company valuation of around 140 billion yuan [6].

Core Insights - Changxin Storage is projected to increase its DRAM shipment volume by 50% year-on-year in 2023, with its market share expected to rise from 6% in Q1 to 8% by Q4 [1] - The company is enhancing production not only in traditional DDR4 and LPDDR4 products but also achieving significant growth in DDR5 and LPDDR5, with market shares expected to increase from less than 1% to 7% and from 0.5% to 9% respectively [1][2] Company Overview - Changxin Storage, established on June 13, 2016, is a comprehensive memory chip manufacturer focusing on DRAM design, research, production, and sales [2] - The company is headquartered in Hefei, Anhui, and has multiple R&D centers and branches both domestically and internationally [2] - The CEO, Dr. Cao Kanyu, has over 20 years of experience in the semiconductor industry and has played a significant role in the development of China's DRAM sector [3] Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Hefei Qinghui Jidian Enterprise Management Partnership, holding 21.67% of the shares, with no controlling shareholder [1][3] - The top five shareholders include state-owned and private entities, with notable investors such as Alibaba and Zhaoyi Innovation Technology Group [3][4] Recent Financing - In March 2024, Changxin Storage completed a strategic financing round of 10.8 billion RMB, valuing the company at approximately 140 billion RMB [5] - Zhaoyi Innovation Technology Group increased its stake in Changxin Storage to about 1.88% following a 1.5 billion RMB investment [5]