出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：光心 2025年12月30日，长鑫科技申报科创板IPO获交易所受理，这家国产DRAM技术链主的上市之路备受市场关注，其在资本市场的制度创新、融资规模、标的 性质等方面具备多项划时代意义。 一是长鑫科技成为科创板第一家采用IPO预先审阅机制申报上市的公司。这一制度由证监会于2025年6月推出，核心作用是减少上市"曝光"时间，以免过早暴 露敏感信息引发竞争风险。在此制度护航下，上交所在招股书受理同一日，便同步披露两轮预先审阅问询与回复，极大缩短了正式受理后的审核周期。 二是长鑫科技此次拟融资额度高，计划募集资金额在科创板历史上位列第一。据招股说明书披露，长鑫科技此次上市拟募资295亿元（扣除发行费用后）， 其中75亿元用于晶圆产线改造升级、130亿元用于DRAM技术升级、90亿元用于前瞻技术的研发。 而科创板此前计划募资金额最高的为中芯国际，为207.15亿元（包含发行费用），远低于长鑫科技的此次拟募资总额。 值得注意的是，中芯国际上市时曾实现巨额超募，最终实际募资金额为532.30亿元，而该案例在科创板较为罕见。科创板IPO融资额TOP10企业中有7家半导 体企业，其中华虹公 ...

东方证券研报指出，兆易创新持续受益存储涨价，推进端侧AI布局。在价格方面，兆易创新预计未来2 年左右利基型DRAM市场仍将处于供应相对紧张的环境，价格有望在明年维持相对较好的水平。在产品 方面，兆易创新持续推动DRAM新产品布局，LPDDR4预计在26年上半年推出产品，在下半年实现量 产，并着手规划LPDDR5小容量产品的研发；基于新产线的DDR4产品预计在26年下半年推出样品。在 产能方面，兆易创新与核心供应商积极协商，争取得到产能和价格上的支持，有望充分受益存储涨价周 期。公司推进端侧AI领域布局，定制化存储解决方案进展顺利。NORFlash受益端侧AI需求，公司继续 推动市场份额提升。根据可比公司26年平均65倍PE估值，给予257.40元目标价，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected trend of rising smartphone prices, which contradicts Moore's Law that suggests prices should decrease as technology improves. This price increase is attributed to significant cost hikes in memory components, driven by supply shortages and increased demand from AI servers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases in Smartphones - Xiaomi's new model, the Xiaomi 17 Ultra, has a starting price of 6,999 yuan, which is an increase of 500 yuan from the previous model. The price hike is attributed to substantial increases in the costs of key components such as processors, cameras, and memory [2]. - Other major smartphone manufacturers like OPPO and vivo have also raised prices for their flagship models compared to previous generations, indicating a broader trend in the industry [2]. Group 2: Memory Supply Shortages - The supply of LPDDR4X memory has seen a shortage of approximately 15%-20% due to a shift in production lines, particularly affecting low-capacity products [4]. - The demand for LPDDR5X memory has surpassed 50% penetration in global smartphones, while LPDDR4X is primarily used in mid-range devices. The tightening supply of LPDDR4X is expected to drive prices up and accelerate the transition to LPDDR5X in the smartphone industry [4]. Group 3: Impact of AI on Memory Supply - AI servers are increasingly consuming memory production capacity that was previously allocated to smartphones and computers, leading to supply constraints in the non-server market [6][7]. - OpenAI's partnership with Samsung and SK Hynix for AI data centers is expected to significantly increase memory demand, with projections of up to 900,000 DRAM wafers needed monthly [7]. Group 4: Domestic Manufacturers' Opportunities - The shift of major manufacturers towards high-margin AI storage has created opportunities for domestic DRAM manufacturers, with the storage index rising over 70% this year [9][11]. - Domestic firms are positioned to fill the supply gap in standard DDR5/RDDR5, with expectations of a 15%-20% supply shortfall by 2026. They can leverage lower technical barriers and cost advantages to provide competitive solutions in the PC and server markets [11][12].

兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

近日，《中国经营报》记者从企查查数据了解到，截至12月17日，2025年我国已注册1.15万家存储芯片 相关企业，不仅刷新近五年注册量峰值，相比2024年同期更是实现了41.4%的增长。今年新注册的1.15 万家存储芯片企业中，超三成企业位于华南地区，其次是华东地区占比29.1%。企业存量方面，截至12 月17日，我国现存4.5万家存储芯片相关企业，成立于近三年的企业合计占比超56%。 记者留意到，国内存储企业注册热潮背后，是AI算力浪潮下，强劲的需求增长与有限的供应扩张之间 形成供需错配，存储芯片行业正迎来"超级周期"。今年以来，云端AI算力狂飙突进，SK海力士、美 光、三星三大存储企业将主要资源投入到了HBM（高带宽内存）与DDR5中，导致传统存储产品如 DDR4、LPDDR4、DDR3以及SLC NAND Flash的供应缺口急剧扩大，价格出现显著上涨。 据第三方调研机构数据，存储芯片领域两大主要产品类别DRAM与NAND Flash现货价格9月至今均已累 计上涨超过300%。 日前，在一场存储行业峰会期间，不少存储模组厂商人士直接向记者表示："目前都没有现货。" 12月17日，美光科技发布2026财年 ...

来源：市场资讯 来源：半导体前线 机构认为，南亚科第3季以来受惠客户需求急速升温，DDR4价格一路飙涨，尤其三大原厂纷纷将产能 转为生产DDR5、HBM4等，不易回头生产DDR4，如今DDR4仍占有整体DRAM市场约20%，在庞大供 需缺口带动下，DDR4呈现每月报价调涨态势，助攻南亚科营运。 机构指出，AI服务器需求急速飙升，加上三星、SK海力士、美光三大原厂积极调整产能配置，优先支 持DDR5与HBM（HBM3E/HBM4）生产，使传统DDR4供给快速收敛、供需更形紧俏。 各大内存原厂在2025~2026年主力皆投向新世代产品，导致DDR4产能缩减幅度超过预期。 根据南亚科公告，10月营收79.08亿元新台币，较去年同期成长262.37%；税前净利25.02亿元新台币、 年增781.74%；归属母公司业主净利20.39亿元新台币，年增幅更达1006.38%。 全球DRAM价格自8~9月急速拉升，带动南亚科第三季营收187.79亿元新台币，年增130.9%；税前净利 20.23亿元新台币，较去年同期大幅成长210.67%；归属母公司净利15.63亿元新台币，年增205.16%，营 运已明显脱离谷底、迈入回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by strong demand from AI applications, leading to a structural shift in the market dynamics [1][5][10]. Price Increases - SK Hynix announced a contract price increase of up to 30% for DRAM and NAND in Q4 [1]. - SanDisk raised NAND flash contract prices by approximately 50%, marking the largest single price increase in this round [1]. - The price of LPDDR4 is expected to rise significantly due to supply shortages, with projections indicating that its market share will drop to 26% by 2026, while LPDDR5 will increase to 73% [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The surge in storage prices is attributed to the booming demand for AI servers, which has led manufacturers to shift production capacity towards high-end products like HBM and DDR5, resulting in a shortage of traditional storage chips [1][5][6]. - The demand for DRAM in AI servers is eight times that of regular servers, and the demand for NAND is three times higher, further straining supply [5]. Impact on Consumer Electronics - The ongoing price increases are expected to affect consumer electronics, with smartphone prices likely to rise as manufacturers adjust to increased component costs [1][5]. - Retail prices for smartphones and laptops are already being adjusted in response to rising storage costs, with expected declines in shipment growth for these devices in 2026 [7][9]. Future Projections - By 2026, the DRAM market is projected to grow by 20% in supply volume, with revenue reaching $300.6 billion, an 85% increase year-over-year [9]. - NAND Flash market supply is expected to grow by 21%, with revenue reaching $110.5 billion, a 58% increase [9]. - Capital expenditures for major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are anticipated to increase significantly, with growth rates of 17%, 25%, and 40% respectively by 2026 [10][11]. Supply Chain Challenges - New production capacities being built by major manufacturers will have limited impact on supply in 2026, leading to continued tightness in the market [11]. - Smaller manufacturers may face increased pressure and need to adopt flexible strategies to secure storage components [11].

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, with DRAM and NAND prices expected to rise substantially in the coming year, driven by increased demand from AI applications and a shift in production focus by major manufacturers [1][3][5]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - SK Hynix announced a contract price increase of up to 30% for DRAM and NAND in Q4, while SanDisk raised NAND flash contract prices by approximately 50%, marking the largest single price hike in this round [1][3]. - The price of DRAM is projected to increase by 171.8% year-on-year by Q3 2025, significantly outpacing the price increases of precious metals like silver and gold [1][3]. - The rapid price changes have led to a volatile market environment, particularly in Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei electronics market, where prices fluctuate daily [4][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Shifts - Major manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are reallocating production capacity from traditional DRAM products like LPDDR4 to higher-value products such as HBM and DDR5, resulting in a tightening supply of LPDDR4 [5][9]. - By 2026, the supply share of LPDDR4 is expected to drop to 26%, while LPDDR5's share will rise to 73%, indicating a significant shift in the product mix [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Consumer Electronics - The rising costs of storage chips are expected to lead to higher prices for consumer electronics, including smartphones and PCs, with some brands already adjusting retail prices in response to increased component costs [6][7]. - The anticipated increase in smartphone costs and the competition for LPDDR5 supply between mobile and AI demands will further exacerbate cost pressures in the consumer electronics sector [6][7]. Group 4: Future Demand Projections - Demand for DRAM and NAND Flash in general and AI servers is projected to grow significantly, with DRAM demand for general servers expected to increase by 20% and NAND Flash by 19% in 2026 [7][8]. - The overall revenue for the DRAM market is forecasted to reach $300.6 billion in 2026, reflecting an 85% year-on-year increase, while the NAND Flash market is expected to reach $110.5 billion, a 58% increase [7][8]. Group 5: Capital Expenditure and Production Capacity - In response to rising prices, major storage manufacturers are increasing capital expenditures, with projections of over 80% growth in 2025 driven by AI and HBM demands [8][9]. - Despite the increase in capital spending, the effective supply output from new facilities is expected to be limited until 2027, indicating ongoing supply constraints in the market [9].

21世纪经济报道记者吴佳楠深圳报道 今年四季度以来，存储行业迎来史诗级涨价浪潮。 10月23日，SK海力士官宣四季度DRAM、NAND合同价最高上调30%。 11月9日，闪迪大幅上调NAND闪存合约价约50%，是本轮NAND涨幅最大的单次调价。 上游存储芯片的持续上涨，进一步影响下游消费电子产品。"还没有买手机的朋友要尽快买，明年价格 大概率上涨。"集邦咨询资深研究副总经理吴雅婷告诉21世纪经济报道记者，预计本轮存储芯片价格持 续上涨的周期比上一轮八个季度的周期更长，整体智能手机价格也会往上调。 本轮存储芯片涨价，归因是人工智能浪潮带来的AI服务器旺盛需求，推动原厂将更多产能转向AI系统 所需的高端产品，包括HBM、DDR5，导致普通型存储芯片LPDDR4产品供应不足。 吴雅婷表示，随着原厂的逐步停产，到2026年，LPDDR4在总的LPDDR供应中占比降至26%，LPDDR5 的供应占比将快速提升至73%。由于手机需求叠加AI需求，LPDDR5的供给也会持续紧张，预计明年都 会面临供应紧缺和涨价问题，进一步促进智能终端的成本压力上升。 消费电子涨价 在深圳华强北电子市场，现货供应紧张，"一天一个价"自10月 ...

记者丨 吴佳楠 编辑丨倪雨晴 "还没有买手机的朋友要尽快买，明年价格大概率上涨。" 今年四季度以来，存储行业迎来史诗级涨价浪潮。 10月23日，SK海力士官宣四季度DRAM、NAND合同价最高上调30%。11月9日，闪迪大幅上调NAND闪存合约价约50%，是本轮 NAND涨幅最大的单次调价。集邦咨询数据显示 ， 2025年第三季度DRAM价格较去年同期大幅上涨171.8%。社交媒体上不少网友 感叹,"内存条涨得比黄金还快。" 上游存储芯片的持续上涨，进一步影响下游消费电子产品。集邦咨询资深研究副总经理吴雅婷告诉21世纪经济报道记者， 预计本轮 存储芯片价格持续上涨的周期比上一轮八个季度的周期更长，整体智能手机价格也会往上调。 本轮存储芯片涨价，归因是人工智能浪潮带来的AI服务器旺盛需求， 推动原厂将更多产能转向AI系统所需的高端产品，包括 HBM、DDR5，导致普通型存储芯片LPDDR4产品供应不足。 吴雅婷表示，随着原厂的逐步停产，到2026年，LPDDR4在总的LPDDR供应中占比降至26%，LPDDR5的供应占比将快速提升至 73%。由于手机需求叠加AI需求，LPDDR5的供给也会持续紧张，预计明年都会 ...