全球大宗商品贸易格局，正经历一场深刻的结构性重塑。 必和必拓的股价，在10月1日遭遇重挫，单日跌幅高达6%，这绝非寻常的市场噪音。当日，新加坡铁矿石期货市场也随之下探4%。此番震荡的源头，在于 中国方面采取的果断行动：9月30日，中国矿产资源集团向国内钢铁企业发出明确指令，暂停采购所有以美元计价的必和必拓铁矿石，即便是已装船在途的 货物，也一概叫停。 此举的深层逻辑，在于中国正积极推动结算货币的多元化与安全化。一个关键信号是，中方推动并促成了与巴西淡水河谷签署的长期供货协议，新订单规模 直接增添了5000万吨，且人民币结算比例显著提升至28%。这意味着，在全球铁矿石贸易中长期占据主导地位的美元结算体系，正被撕开一道实质性的裂 口。 对于必和必拓而言，处境无疑颇为尴尬。这家巨头在美国拥有多处重要的矿山和加工基地，美元结算根植于其商业惯例，且对华出口额占据其总营收的六成 以上。今年，在面临涨价15%的谈判诉求，以及澳大利亚老矿品位下降、导致成本与供应稳定性双双承压的背景下，中方选择以调整采购渠道和结算方式的 方式予以回应。 美国的反应迅速而紧张。美国财政部随即向巴西政府"表达关切"，但收效甚微。其担忧显而易见：铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how China, as the largest consumer of iron ore, is seeking to gain more bargaining power against Australian suppliers, particularly BHP and Rio Tinto, who dominate the market and have significant pricing power [1][4][5]. Group 1: China's Iron Ore Consumption and Import Dependency - China consumes approximately 75% of the global seaborne iron ore imports, with an import volume of 1.237 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 60.2% of the global total [2]. - The import dependency on Australia is high, with 720 million tons imported from BHP and Rio Tinto, representing 85% of Australia's iron ore exports [2]. Group 2: Bargaining Power Dynamics - Australia's significant control over pricing is evident, as China's reliance on Australian iron ore limits its negotiating power [4]. - In the 2019-2020 fiscal year, Australia's iron ore export revenue was $102 billion, with $84.9 billion (approximately 548.5 billion RMB) coming from China, highlighting China's limited influence on pricing [5]. Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China has initiated a halt in purchasing iron ore from BHP, demanding a shift from annual pricing to a quarterly pricing mechanism linked to the spot market, aiming to save approximately $20 billion annually [8][9]. - The move is also intended to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in trade settlements, as BHP insists on dollar transactions while other suppliers have begun accepting RMB [9]. Group 4: Alternative Supply Sources - Brazil has increased its iron ore exports to China, with a 20.7% year-on-year increase in the first two months of 2024, providing a reliable alternative supply [10]. - China has also secured mining rights in Guinea and has access to high-grade iron ore from Russia, which further strengthens its position [11][15]. Group 5: Implications for Australia - The Australian Prime Minister expressed concern over the potential impact of China's purchasing halt, emphasizing the importance of iron ore exports to both economies [16].

市场可不会等它慢慢想。中国的铁矿石供应早就不是非澳洲不可了。几内亚的西芒杜铁矿，储量超过50亿吨，明年就要投产，一年就是几千万吨的产量。巴 西的淡水河谷也在拼命增产，跟中国的合作越来越紧密。全球铁矿石市场已经从卖方市场变成了买方市场，供大于求的局面下，谁手里有订单谁就是爷。必 和必拓要是再这么固执下去，市场分分钟就会被别人抢走。 更关键的是，定价权正在悄悄转移。以前铁矿石价格谁说了算？现在，大连商品交易所的铁矿石期货交易量已经是新加坡的八倍，一个新的定价中心已经在 中国形成。等人民币计价的现货、期货和指数彻底打通，中国钢厂在谈判桌上腰杆会更硬。这个趋势，已经不是一两家公司能挡得住的了。 这场围绕人民币的较量，才刚刚开始。有人顺势而为，有人逆流而上。市场最终会记住的，是那些看清了方向的人。 一纸通知，让整个铁矿石贸易圈炸开了锅。中国买家突然叫停接收必和必拓的美元货，连已经在路上的船都不例外。想继续做生意？可以，唯一的条件就是 用人民币来结算。这消息一出，澳大利亚总理都坐不住了，公开表示"失望"。可有意思的是，同样坐在谈判桌上的两家澳洲矿企，力拓二话不说就答应了， 必和必拓却成了那个硬扛着的"孤勇者"。 这事儿看 ...

最近，中国宣布暂停采购澳大利亚的铁矿石，这一消息一出，澳大利亚瞬间陷入了巨大的震动中。表面上看，只是暂停了一项贸易协议，但背后却隐藏着深 刻的全球经济博弈。这个决定不仅关系到澳洲的经济命脉，也可能会引发全球大宗商品市场的深刻变化。 澳大利亚媒体迅速作出反应，纷纷报道这一事件 的严重性。ABC News认为，这标志着中国在争夺全球定价权方面的一次升级。而《澳大利亚人报》则直接称其为"商务对峙"，并警告如果问题不尽快解 决，后果可能不堪设想。财经媒体《AFR》也批评澳洲政府反应迟缓，强调铁矿石对中国出口的畅通无阻至关重要。 那么，为什么澳大利亚媒体如此紧 张？原因就在于铁矿石对澳大利亚经济的重要性。2023年，澳大利亚的铁矿石出口总量达到了9亿吨，其中85%销往中国。铁矿石不仅贡献了澳大利亚GDP 的5%，还占据了西澳财政收入的四分之一。对于澳大利亚而言，铁矿石就像石油对中东一样，至关重要。 而中国这次暂停的正是与美元结算的部分交易，尤其是必和必拓的海运铁矿石。即使货船已经启程，中国也拒绝收货和付款，这无疑给澳大利亚经济带来了 巨大的冲击。 许多人会问，为什么中国现在突然敢采取这么强硬的立场？其实，这一切并非突如 ...

Core Insights - Rio Tinto has adopted a new settlement scheme using the Chinese yuan, while BHP Billiton has chosen to maintain its existing settlement model, highlighting a stark contrast in strategic approaches between the two Australian mining giants [1][3] - The choice of settlement currency has become a significant indicator of a company's strategic flexibility, especially in the context of the deepening demand for stable mineral resource supply from the Chinese market [1][3] Group 1: Company Strategies - Rio Tinto's decision is based on a thorough consideration of real interests, having established a long-term investment presence across multiple sectors in the Chinese market [1] - The company has set up a dedicated yuan account in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, indicating a forward-looking strategy with a 36-month implementation period [1] - BHP Billiton's decision reflects a tighter connection to international capital markets, with a significant dollar-denominated debt structure that could be adversely affected by a shift in settlement currency [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The iron ore trade transcends mere commercial transactions, involving complex international relations, particularly between Australia and China [1] - The ongoing fluctuations in exchange rates pose a risk to profitability, with annual iron ore trade volumes exceeding hundreds of millions of tons [3] - The strategic decisions of both companies will be tested over time, with upcoming financial data serving as a critical observation point for market expectations [1]

中国一纸禁令，让澳大利亚价值1160亿澳元的铁矿石贸易陷入停滞。 2025年9月30日，中国矿产资源集团向国内钢铁企业发出通知，要求暂停采购所有以美 元计价的必和必拓海运铁矿石。 这一决定直接击中了澳大利亚的经济命脉，该国总理阿尔巴尼斯在24小时内紧急表态，称对中国的决定"感到失望"，并强 调铁矿石贸易对两国经济的重要性，希望问题能"迅速解决"。 然而，这一次中方的行动并非临时起意，而是经过长期战略布局的精准反击。 全球铁矿石市场的定价权博弈首次迎来实质性转折。 必和必拓作为澳大利亚三大矿业巨头之一，在与中国进行的长期采购协议谈判中坚持两个条件：继续 使用美元结算，并在现有基础上加价15%。 这一要求与当前每吨约80美元的现货价格形成巨大反差。 而中方则明确要求采用人民币结算，并以现货市场价 格为基准签订长期合同。 9月28日举行的第七轮经贸磋商中，双方因立场悬殊不欢而散。 中国市场对必和必拓而言意味着每年超过5000亿人民币的贸易额。 暂停采购令发布后，必和必拓股价应声下跌约3.4%，市值蒸发超过120亿澳元。 澳大利 亚国库部长吉姆·查默斯被迫紧急会见必和必拓首席执行官迈克·亨利商讨对策。 铁矿石出口收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australian mining companies, including BHP, are maintaining a long-term contract price of $109.5 per ton for iron ore until 2025, while refusing to accept payments in RMB despite falling spot prices [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - Domestic steel companies require iron ore prices to drop below $100 to use RMB for transactions, which would result in an additional annual cost of over $20 billion for these companies if prices remain high [3]. - Steel companies are currently at a breakeven point with iron ore prices around $80, and most are profitable when prices fall to $70, indicating that prices above $100 significantly squeeze their margins [3]. Group 2: Market Response - China Mineral Resources Group plans to halt purchases of BHP's dollar-denominated iron ore by September 2025, shifting to other Australian suppliers that accept RMB payments [3]. - Brazil has also begun accepting RMB for transactions with China, indicating a shift in trade dynamics that could pressure Australian miners to either lower prices or accept RMB payments to maintain market access [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The strong interdependence in iron ore trade between China and Australia suggests that Australian companies risk losing market share and facing economic downturns if they do not address pricing and payment method disputes with China [3][4]. - The current rigid stance of Australian mining companies may lead to a loss of business opportunities in the large Chinese market, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and adaptation to new trading rules for long-term cooperation [4].

这对澳洲矿商来说，的确是个不小的打击，但问题远不止这些。中国不仅在购买矿石，还开始在基础设施建设方面进行合作。例如，俄罗斯的铁路、巴西的 港口都在建设中，未来这些资源的运输将变得像开车上高速一样顺畅。有人形容，以前的运输是小土路，现在直接铺上了宽阔的高速路。 如果这种趋势持续下去，预计会有更多的国家开始使用人民币结算资源交易。如果真成了常态，美元在大宗商品市场中的主导地位将受到威胁。澳洲政府虽 然天天强调价值观的重要性，但矿商们却不得不依赖中国的订单来维持生计。最终，资源安全和交易的便利性才是决定因素，实际利益无疑会占上风。 对于澳洲矿商来说，这绝对是坏消息。铁矿石的价格已经下跌了18%，原本是一年签一次的合同，现在变成了三年签一次，定价权也逐渐流失。尽管澳洲矿 商仍然占据了中国铁矿石进口市场的六成份额，但市场的风向已经发生变化。最近，一位澳洲矿企的总裁来中国谈合作时，中国钢厂的人竟然直接问："能 不能用人民币结算？"这一问题让在场的所有人都愣住了。 变化已经悄然发生。如今，中国钢厂不仅从澳洲采购矿石保障供应量，从巴西采购矿石确保质量，还从俄罗斯采购矿石压低价格。如果矿商不配合，钢厂就 换一家。大连商品交易所 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended imports of iron ore from BHP, aiming to regain pricing power and reduce reliance on the US dollar, which has caused panic in Australia [1][5][10]. Group 1: China's Iron Ore Import Strategy - In 2024, China imported approximately 1.237 billion tons of iron ore, with 720 million tons from Australia, accounting for about 58.2% of total imports [3]. - China has historically been the largest iron ore importer, yet it has not secured favorable pricing due to the oligopolistic control of major suppliers like BHP, Vale, and Rio Tinto [5][8]. - The recent negotiations between China and BHP have failed, with China rejecting BHP's annual pricing model in favor of quarterly adjustments based on current market prices [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Pricing Power - China has faced significant challenges in negotiating iron ore prices, often being forced to accept high prices due to the dominance of major mining companies [8][9]. - Past negotiations have seen China accept price increases of 80% to 96% during critical periods, highlighting the power imbalance in the market [8][9]. - The historical context of China's struggles in securing better pricing has led to a strategic shift towards gaining more control over iron ore pricing [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Moves by China - China is investing in domestic mining projects, such as the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, to increase its own supply and reduce dependence on foreign imports [9][10]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group aims to consolidate purchasing power among domestic steel producers, enhancing negotiation leverage against suppliers [9][10]. - The introduction of a domestic iron ore price index and the push for transactions in RMB are part of China's strategy to create a more favorable pricing environment [10][12]. Group 4: Implications for Global Trade - The suspension of imports from BHP signals a potential shift in global iron ore trade dynamics, as China seeks to assert its influence over pricing mechanisms [1][10]. - The situation mirrors past trade conflicts, such as the soybean trade war with the US, indicating a broader strategy by China to protect its economic interests [1][10][23]. - Australia's response, including calls for China to resume imports, reflects the immediate economic impact of China's decision on its trading partners [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic maneuvering in the iron ore market, particularly its efforts to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global trade by proposing alternative settlement methods for iron ore transactions with Australia [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Moves - China has suggested to domestic buyers to pause purchasing iron ore from BHP Billiton in US dollars, targeting the company's dollar-based trading system [1]. - This move is seen as a strategic shift to divert attention from the heavily defended oil market to the relatively less scrutinized iron ore sector, creating a tactical advantage for China [2]. - The strategy reflects China's broader goal of reducing reliance on the US dollar and establishing a more diversified currency settlement system in international trade [6]. Group 2: Resource Control - China has prepared for potential disruptions in iron ore supply by securing significant stakes in iron ore projects in Africa and South America, such as the Simandou project in Guinea, which holds over 10 billion tons of high-quality iron ore [3]. - The collaboration with Brazil's Vale further strengthens China's position in the global iron ore market, allowing it to negotiate better terms with Australian suppliers [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - China offers two options to Australia: continue using the US dollar for transactions or switch to renminbi, which could enhance profits by avoiding dollar conversion fees [5]. - This approach tests the resilience of the US-led alliance system, particularly as Australia is a key ally in the Asia-Pacific region [5][8]. - If Australia opts for renminbi settlements, it could set a precedent that influences other US allies, potentially destabilizing the existing dollar-centric trade framework [5][8]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the current international monetary system is undergoing significant transformation, with China's push for renminbi settlements aiming to create a dual-currency supply-demand cycle [6]. - This shift could gradually reduce the dominance of the US dollar in global trade, as more countries engage in direct trade with China using renminbi [6]. - The strategic positioning of Australia in this context is critical, as any shift in its trade practices could have far-reaching implications for the US's network of allies [8][9].