2025年12月的全球大宗商品市场，现货白银价格一举突破了每盎司60美元的历史关口，年内涨幅超过 110%。 这个曾经安静待在黄金阴影下的金属，如今正上演着资本市场最疯狂的行情。 但如果你认为这只是一场普通的资本投机狂欢，那就大错特错了。 这场席卷全球的"白银风暴"，核心的旋风眼正来自中国的一项将于2026年1月正式实施的出口管制新 政。 中国为何此时选择收紧白银出口呢？而西方世界又将如何接招？ 根据商务部2025年10月发布的公告，2026到2027年度的白银出口要实行国营贸易企业申报制度。 生产企业想申报出口资质，要么之前连续三年有出口实绩，要么新申请的企业年产量得达到一定标准， 西部地区的企业虽然标准稍微放宽，但也有明确要求。 而且不管是生产企业还是流通企业，都得通过质量体系和环境管理体系认证，按时缴纳各项社会保险， 没有违法违规记录才能申报。 以前白银出口是配额加许可证的双轨制，企业拿到配额基本就能出口，现在改成了严格的出口许可证管 理。 也就是说，就算有资质的企业，出口时也得提交用途说明、下游客户资质证明，商务部还要联合相关部 门审核合同的真实性和合规性。 这重点限制那些无序出口和低附加值的加工品外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to be imminent, which will bring positive impacts such as strengthening China's commodity pricing power, promoting the healthy development of the industry, helping enterprises manage price risks, and enhancing market transparency [3][4] - In the short - term, the global supply of platinum and palladium is tight. In the long - term, platinum's supply - demand fundamentals will gradually improve, while palladium will gradually become looser [5] - In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward in the medium - to - long term, and for palladium, attention should be paid to the price decline risk caused by the relaxation of supply - demand. Suggested price ranges are 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 7, 2025, the CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and the listing time is expected to be approaching [3] - Positive impacts of the listing: strengthening China's commodity pricing power as China is a major consumer but lacks pricing influence; promoting industrial development and supply - chain stability by providing standardized contracts and price - discovery functions; helping enterprises manage price risks in the context of large price fluctuations; enhancing market transparency as derivatives are information - aggregation platforms [3][4] Fundamental Situation - Short - term: Supply is tight due to tariffs and sanctions on Russia. As of November 5, the 1 - month lease rate of platinum is around 2.7%, and that of palladium is around 1.0% [5] - Long - term: Supply from South Africa is restricted by power shortages, labor issues, etc. In Q2 2025, global platinum mine and refined production decreased by 7.8% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively; in the first half of 2025, global palladium mine and refined production decreased by 10.1% and 6.6% year - on - year respectively. Platinum demand is growing steadily, while palladium supply - demand is becoming looser [5] Summary and Strategy - Recently, precious metal prices have adjusted. Platinum remains firm due to trade restrictions, and palladium prices are supported by supply tightness in other regions. In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward, and for palladium, attention should be paid to price decline risks [6] - Suggested price ranges: 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6]

Core Insights - The shift from USD to RMB for iron ore transactions signifies a broader change in pricing power and settlement mechanisms in the global commodities market, particularly affecting the steel, construction, and manufacturing sectors [1][5][12] Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - Historically, iron ore has been priced in USD, with oligopolistic supply leading to a buyer's disadvantage; however, concentrated purchasing power is shifting the negotiation dynamics [3][9] - The profit margins for the Chinese steel industry are under pressure, with projected profit margins below 1% in 2024, highlighting the impact of pricing power on industry profitability [3] Currency Transition and Trade Finance - The transition to RMB settlement is expected to alter the entire trade finance ecosystem, including trade credit and hedging instruments, thereby reducing the influence of USD fluctuations on raw material costs [5][7] - The acceptance of RMB for spot transactions indicates a significant shift in supply-demand expectations, as suppliers recognize the risk of being replaced [5][9] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - The stability of raw material pricing will allow steel mills to reset inventory strategies and improve cash flow forecasting, leading to gradual cost improvements rather than abrupt price drops [7][8] - The global supply structure is adjusting, with high-grade iron ore from regions like Simandou gaining value, which may alter the pricing dynamics and reduce the sharpness of price peaks [8][10] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The historical context of China's steel demand and pricing dynamics illustrates the evolution of market power, with past experiences shaping current negotiation strategies [9][10] - The move towards multi-currency transactions in commodities is not a complete replacement of USD but rather a parallel system, with iron ore being a key indicator of this transition due to its high demand and clear alternative supply paths [12]

Core Viewpoint - BHP, an Australian iron ore giant, has announced that starting from Q4 this year, 30% of its iron ore spot transactions with China will be settled in RMB, marking a significant breakthrough for China in global commodity pricing and a challenge to the dominance of the US dollar [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - For over two decades, China's steel industry has struggled at the iron ore negotiation table, facing a strong seller's monopoly dominated by BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale [1][3]. - The profit margins for foreign miners have consistently exceeded 100%, while Chinese steel companies have faced margins as low as 0.71%, leading to the closure of many domestic steel mills [3]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group aimed to consolidate purchasing power and end the fragmented approach of domestic steel mills, allowing China to leverage its position as the largest iron ore buyer [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - China is diversifying its supply channels, with the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea becoming a critical alternative source, boasting higher reserves than the combined output of the three major Australian miners [5]. - The shift to RMB settlement is a strategic move that reduces reliance on the US dollar, which has historically dominated iron ore trade, with about 80% of transactions conducted in USD [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on International Relations - The transition to RMB settlement has led to significant changes in the international iron ore market, shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market [8]. - BHP's reliance on China is evident, with 80% of its global iron ore sales (approximately 230 million tons) directed to China, prompting Australian officials to seek to restore trade relations [8].

Core Insights - China's recent strategy to pause iron ore purchases from BHP has led to significant outcomes, including the agreement to settle transactions in RMB, marking a pivotal step in the internationalization of the currency and a shift in pricing power in iron ore trade [1][3]. Group 1: Pricing Power Shift - China, as the largest buyer, historically lacked bargaining power in iron ore pricing, but recent actions have enabled it to gain pricing authority [3]. - The Chinese Mineral Resources Group's decision to halt purchases of BHP's iron ore priced in USD, including goods already at port, forced BHP to reconsider its stance on RMB settlement [3][5]. - BHP's previous firm position included rejecting RMB transactions and demanding price increases based on current market rates, but China's strategic moves led to a breakthrough [3]. Group 2: Strategic Moves and Market Dynamics - China's diversification of supply sources, such as the upcoming production from Guinea's Mandi iron ore mine, which is expected to yield 120 million tons annually by 2025, is crucial in reducing reliance on Australian iron ore [3][5]. - The introduction of the RMB-denominated "North Iron Index" by China, leveraging domestic futures trading, aims to diminish the influence of the Platts index and enhance local pricing mechanisms [3][7]. - The consolidation of purchasing power through the establishment of the Chinese Mineral Resources Group, which integrates procurement from 600 steel companies, has effectively countered suppliers' pricing advantages [5]. Group 3: Implications for Currency and Future Strategies - The acceptance of RMB for settlements not only facilitates trade but also challenges the dominance of the USD in commodity transactions [7]. - Since 2020, major mining companies have been experimenting with RMB cross-border settlements, indicating a broader trend towards currency diversification in trade [7]. - China's future plans include expanding the RMB settlement framework to other commodities like oil and agricultural products, drawing on experiences from partnerships with Saudi Arabia and ASEAN [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has halted all dollar-denominated iron ore purchases from BHP, signaling a significant shift in China's bargaining power in the global iron ore market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - CMRG's decision to stop purchasing from BHP indicates a departure from past practices where Chinese steel mills had little negotiating power against international mining giants [3][5]. - Historically, Chinese steel mills faced rising iron ore prices with minimal profit margins, as evidenced by the steel industry's profit of only 50 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 compared to BHP's net profit of 10.2 billion USD during the same period [3][5]. Group 2: Changes in Demand and Supply - The demand for steel in China is shifting due to a transition in development models, with crude steel production decreasing by 2.8% from January to August this year, allowing for more negotiation space [5][8]. - CMRG's establishment in 2022 has unified the purchasing power of various steel mills, enhancing their negotiating position against suppliers like BHP [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - CMRG's actions reflect a strategic move to diversify supply sources, particularly with the development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 120 million tons of high-quality iron ore annually [8][10]. - This diversification strategy aims to reduce reliance on Australian iron ore and compel BHP to offer fair pricing, indicating a shift from being a passive price taker to an active participant in shaping international trade rules [10][12]. Group 4: Implications for the Industry - The halt in purchases is not a political statement but a calculated business strategy to leverage China's market size for better pricing [10][12]. - Lower upstream raw material prices are expected to benefit downstream industries, including automotive and home appliances, by controlling production costs [12].

Core Viewpoint - China has successfully gained pricing power over iron ore, marking a significant shift in the global iron ore market dynamics [1][3][18] Group 1: Background and Context - The struggle for iron ore pricing power between China and Australia has been ongoing for four years, with China being the largest iron ore importer globally [3][5] - Historically, Australia has dominated iron ore pricing, leading to perceived unfairness in international trade, especially given the significant dollar-denominated transactions [3][5] Group 2: Recent Developments - In August 2023, a major disagreement arose between Chinese and Australian companies regarding the pricing and currency for iron ore transactions, with China demanding RMB settlement and a price benchmark of $80 per ton [5][12] - Following the breakdown of negotiations, China announced a suspension of all iron ore imports from Australia's BHP, marking a significant escalation in the trade conflict [6][9] Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China's current high inventory levels and reduced domestic demand for iron ore provide it with leverage, allowing it to pause imports without immediate concern [9][11] - Other suppliers, such as Brazil's Vale and Australia's Fortescue Metals Group, are willing to accept RMB for transactions, further strengthening China's position [11][12] Group 4: Outcome and Implications - BHP has since agreed to settle iron ore trades in RMB starting from the fourth quarter, indicating a significant concession [12][14] - This shift means that approximately 70% of global iron ore trade will now be conducted in RMB, effectively granting China greater control over pricing [14][18] - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group has facilitated a unified procurement strategy, allowing China to negotiate from a position of strength [15][17] Group 5: Future Outlook - The successful negotiation is seen as a precursor to China potentially reclaiming pricing power over other commodities, challenging the dominance of the U.S. in global commodity pricing [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended imports of iron ore from BHP, a major Australian mining company, priced in US dollars, signaling a significant shift in the global iron ore market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Context - For the past two decades, China has faced challenges in the global iron ore market, often feeling exploited despite being the largest buyer, accounting for 70% of global iron ore imports [6][12]. - The pricing mechanism, dominated by the Platts index, has led to inflated prices that do not reflect actual market conditions, resulting in significant profits for mining companies at the expense of Chinese steel manufacturers [10][12][13]. - In 2022, Australian iron ore exports to China amounted to nearly 1 billion tons, generating approximately $20 billion in profits for Australia, while Chinese steel producers struggled with an average profit margin of only 0.71% [13][14]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - In August 2023, China initiated negotiations for long-term pricing contracts with BHP, proposing a price reduction to $80 per ton, reflecting a decline in global market prices [17][18]. - BHP countered with a price increase of 15%, citing future demand due to post-conflict reconstruction needs, which led to a stalemate in negotiations [20][21]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - China has strategically positioned itself by diversifying its sources of iron ore, including investments in other mining companies and securing contracts that allow for pricing in RMB rather than USD [28][29]. - The development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is largely controlled by Chinese interests, is expected to produce significant quantities of high-grade iron ore, potentially replacing Australian imports [28][29]. - China's "Cornerstone Plan" aims to increase domestic iron ore production and enhance scrap steel recycling, leveraging cheap renewable energy to support electric arc furnaces [31]. Group 4: Market Implications - The shift in demand dynamics, with a decrease in Chinese demand for iron ore due to changes in the real estate sector, is expected to pressure Australian mining companies, which may lead to a reevaluation of pricing strategies [32][34]. - The broader implications of this shift extend beyond iron ore, as China seeks to redefine its position in global trade and establish a new order in international commodity pricing [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - China has taken a significant step by halting the purchase of iron ore from BHP in Australia priced in USD, indicating a strategic move to reclaim pricing power in the iron ore market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cessation of USD-denominated iron ore purchases is seen as a tactical pause in commercial negotiations, marking the beginning of a long-awaited strategic offensive for pricing power that has been in the making for over two decades [2]. - China, as the world's largest steel producer, has historically been in a vulnerable position due to its heavy reliance on imported iron ore, primarily from Australia and Brazil, despite its dominant steel production capacity [3][4]. Group 2: Profit Disparity - The current pricing mechanism, heavily influenced by the Platts index, has led to a significant imbalance in profit distribution between upstream and downstream players, with Australian mining companies enjoying profit margins exceeding 150%, while Chinese steel producers face an average profit margin of only 0.71% in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - To address the profit disparity, China has initiated a two-step strategy: first, consolidating its domestic steel industry to reduce competition and enhance bargaining power, exemplified by the merger of major steel companies [5][6]. - The second step involves seeking alternative sources of iron ore to break the existing monopoly, with significant investments in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to yield high-quality iron ore and reduce dependency on Australian suppliers [7][8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The Simandou project is projected to produce between 120 million to 150 million tons of iron ore annually, with the first shipments expected as early as November [9][10]. - This strategic pivot not only strengthens China's position in the global iron ore market but also signals a shift in the global resource landscape, potentially diminishing Australia's market share if it continues to resist cooperation [10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent actions by China regarding strategic mineral resource management have garnered significant attention, indicating a potential shift in its pricing strategy in the global commodities market [1][7]. Group 1: China's Actions in Mineral Resource Management - On September 30, 2023, it was reported that China Mineral Resources Group requested domestic buyers to suspend purchases of BHP's iron ore cargo priced in USD, causing a stir in international raw material markets [2][4]. - On October 9, 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies and items, further emphasizing its strategic approach to resource management [5]. Group 2: China's Position in the Global Market - China is the largest consumer of iron ore globally, importing 1.237 billion tons in the previous year, which is nearly five times the amount imported two decades ago, accounting for approximately 75% of global seaborne iron ore imports [8][9]. - Despite being a major buyer, China has historically lacked pricing power, often forced to accept prices set by suppliers, particularly Australian mining giants [9][11]. Group 3: Historical Context of Pricing Power - From 2003 onwards, China has been the largest buyer of Australian iron ore but has been subjected to unfavorable pricing mechanisms, such as the "first-mover-follow" pricing strategy employed by major mining companies [11][12]. - Significant price increases have been imposed on China, with instances of price hikes reaching as high as 96.5% in 2008, reflecting the lack of negotiation power [13][16]. Group 4: Industry Consolidation Efforts - The fragmentation of Chinese enterprises in the commodities market has contributed to its weak pricing power, prompting the establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 to consolidate procurement efforts [21][24]. - The group has initiated centralized procurement for iron ore, representing a significant shift from the previously fragmented purchasing approach of over 600 steel companies [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Global Infrastructure - China's pursuit of global pricing power in commodities is not aimed at economic hegemony but rather to secure fair benefits for its economic development, especially in light of a new global infrastructure cycle [34][40]. - The anticipated infrastructure investments in the Middle East and emerging economies present opportunities for China to leverage its position in the iron ore and rare earth markets, which are critical for construction and new energy projects [35][39].