【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It points out that most commodities are in a state of price fluctuation and supply - demand adjustment, with many facing uncertain factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal demand variations. Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fluctuated last week. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported prices, but the Russian port's resumption of loading reduced the impact. There is a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of Russian oil sanctions and the release of Venezuelan risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by short - term export decline but may face a more relaxed supply pattern in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved due to factors such as unstable overseas refinery operations and strong demand in the fourth - quarter shipping season [20]. - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume has falsified the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - year rush - work demand expectation, and the demand is weaker than last year. The inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and the fundamentals are bearish in the long - term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Import supply is tight. The improvement of butane dehydrogenation device profitability and cold weather have increased demand, leading to a decline in refinery and port storage rates. LPG is expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the end of the US government shutdown, the market is waiting for economic data. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation platform, waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose on the night of last Friday. The market trading theme is unclear, waiting for US economic indicators and domestic demand. Short - term high - position short orders can be traded near 88,000 yuan, and copper prices are in a state of oscillation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices dropped on Friday. The long - term supply - demand situation has potential, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The oscillation - upward trend has not been broken, and attention should be paid to capital movements [5]. - **Zinc**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the equity market and a large - scale exit of long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc inventory is rising slightly, and domestic refinery profits are under pressure. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices have weakened downstream procurement, and refineries are resuming production. Although there are short - term factors to stimulate consumption, the support for high prices is insufficient. Considering cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: The amplitude of Shanghai tin increased on the night of last Friday. The inventory of tin has increased. The market is waiting for the inventory data. Long - term high - position short orders can be held near 295,000 yuan [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill is stable. Iron - water production has rebounded, and the output of manganese silicon has slightly decreased. The price has strong bottom support [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill has increased slightly. Demand has resilience, and supply is at a high level. Due to the increase in cost, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [18]. - **Other Metals - Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. It continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly in a weak operation with limited rebound space [7]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: Photovoltaic terminal demand is weak. Both upstream and downstream reduced production in November, and the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited. The price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is significantly reduced during the dry season, but the expected production reduction of organic silicon monomer enterprises may drag down demand. The price is under pressure at a high level and will continue to oscillate [12]. - **Benzene and Its Derivatives** - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the price has rebounded, but the downstream profit is weak, and the sustainability of overseas demand is uncertain [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with only a small expected increase in domestic supply and a weakened import increase expectation. The demand is stable [26]. - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is loose, and the demand is supported to some extent. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is slightly increasing, and the market price is difficult to rise continuously [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda** - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. The cost has some support, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to oscillate narrowly [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream cost has increased, and the price has weakened. The inventory pressure is still large, and the demand is insufficient, so it is in a weak operation [28]. - **PX and PTA**: Affected by the tight overseas aromatics market, the prices of PX and PTA have rebounded. There is still an expectation of industry production reduction, and the overseas demand sustainability needs to be observed [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has slightly increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. The demand for bottle - chip has decreased with the cooling weather, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The USDA report has a limited impact on the market. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Niña. The domestic soybean meal will follow the short - term decline of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The USDA report has led to a decline in US soybean prices. The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has changed, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand of palm oil [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The USDA report is bearish for domestic rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the production and export of Canadian rapeseed [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the difference with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market [38]. - **Corn**: The USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic corn imports are expected to continue, and the new - grain supply peak in the Northeast has not passed. The futures price is expected to decline [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The spot price has slightly decreased. In the long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the high - supply and low - demand situation, and short positions can be held [41]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for US cotton. The domestic cotton purchase is almost over, and the new - cotton listing brings pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi is relatively good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the long - term [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price has risen continuously, and the inventory has increased. The valuation is low, and there is an expectation of improvement in the long - term. The short - term upward space may be limited, and long positions should be held carefully [46]. Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract is expected to reflect the pre - Spring Festival freight peak. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month fixed - cargo situation and supply - side changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated, and the futures index has declined. The economic data has slowed down, and the overseas situation has increased market uncertainty. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are still the mid - term focus, and attention should be paid to the style rotation of consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price of treasury bonds is in a narrow - range oscillation. The market's reaction to economic data is flat. The structural differentiation continues, and changes in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48].

Group 1: US-China Soybean Trade - The Chinese government has agreed to purchase approximately 12 million tons of US soybeans in November and December, with a commitment to buy at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of soybeans from the US fell to 12 million tons, a 58% decrease compared to the same period last year [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of US-China agricultural trade and expressed hope for a favorable atmosphere for practical cooperation in agriculture [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Supply Chain - The Chinese government has engaged in multiple rounds of discussions with the Netherlands regarding the semiconductor supply chain, expressing a responsible attitude towards global supply chain stability [4] - The root cause of the semiconductor supply chain issues is attributed to inappropriate interventions by the Dutch government, which has led to disruptions [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has called for constructive actions from the Dutch side to restore the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report primarily discusses the commodities market, with a specific focus on oil and soybean markets, amidst rising geopolitical risks [5][16]. Core Insights and Arguments Macroeconomic Context - **China's 14th Five-Year Plan**: The recent discussions highlighted advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in the real estate sector, and significant geopolitical changes. The new plan emphasizes the importance of technology, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing openness [3]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. WEI index shows signs of recovery, suggesting a potential GDP growth rate of over 3% in Q3. However, employment levels remain low due to structural changes in hiring needs [4]. Oil Market Dynamics - **Sanctions on Russian Oil**: The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russian oil companies, significantly impacting oil supply dynamics. The U.S. has sanctioned 75% of Russian oil supplies, with a notable impact on Asian markets, particularly India [5]. - **Price Movements**: Following the sanctions, Brent crude oil prices surged approximately 7% to around $65 per barrel. The market is still cautious about fully pricing in the risks associated with Russian oil supply disruptions [9]. - **Supply Outlook**: The report anticipates a global oil supply surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, with Brent prices expected to remain in the range of $65-$70 per barrel unless significant supply shocks occur [10]. Soybean Market Insights - **Price Volatility**: The soybean market is experiencing increased price fluctuations due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade policies. Recent data indicates strong domestic demand for U.S. soybeans, alleviating concerns over export demand [6][16]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to influence soybean pricing significantly, with current expectations of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Commodity Price Movements - **Recent Price Changes**: Over the past two weeks, various commodities have shown significant price changes, with domestic thermal coal increasing by 9.3% and iron ore decreasing by 1.5% [7][20]. - **Black Metal Sector**: The black metal sector is facing mixed signals, with steel inventory levels shifting from accumulation to depletion, indicating potential demand recovery [11][12]. Geopolitical Risks - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The report emphasizes the rising geopolitical risks affecting commodity markets, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors, which could lead to increased volatility and price adjustments [5][9]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with traders awaiting clearer signals from geopolitical developments and trade negotiations [9][18]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report suggests that while immediate price movements are influenced by geopolitical events, long-term trends will depend on structural changes in supply and demand dynamics across various commodities [12][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the commodities market, particularly focusing on oil and soybeans amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Hot News - The Ministry of Finance released the report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025. It will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy, compact the budget execution responsibility chain, combine improving the efficiency of fund use with ensuring fund safety, and promote the implementation of funds and policies [2] - The National Energy Administration issued the guiding opinions on promoting the integrated development of coal and new energy. By the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan, significant achievements are expected in the integrated development of coal and new energy, with a basically mature development model for the photovoltaic and wind power industries in coal mining areas, a substantial increase in electricity substitution and new energy penetration, and the construction of a number of clean and low - carbon mining areas [2] - On November 7 local time, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the motion to advance the Specific Federal Employees Appropriations Act, with 53 votes in favor and 43 against, falling short of the 60 - vote threshold. The government shutdown is difficult to lift for the time being [2] - The General Administration of Customs decided to revoke the 2025 No. 30 announcement on suspending the soybean export qualifications of three U.S. enterprises including CHS Inc., and resume their soybean export qualifications to China from November 10, 2025 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of platinum, palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and will supervise the exchange to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of these products [2] Plate Performance - Key focus: Pulp, crude oil, coking coal, Shanghai copper, Shanghai gold [3] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 3.13%, precious metals 28.56%, oilseeds 9.61%, non - ferrous metals 23.20%, soft commodities 2.77%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.36%, energy 2.90%, chemicals 11.33%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.93% [3] Big Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.25 | 1.08 | 19.27 | | Equity | SSE 50 | - 0.21 | 0.89 | 13.17 | | Equity | CSI 300 | - 0.31 | 0.82 | 18.90 | | Equity | CSI 500 | - 0.24 | - 0.04 | 27.98 | | Equity | S&P 500 | 0.13 | - 1.63 | 14.40 | | Equity | Hang Seng Index | - 0.92 | 1.29 | 30.82 | | Equity | German DAX | - 0.69 | - 1.62 | 18.39 | | Equity | Nikkei 225 | - 1.19 | - 4.07 | 26.02 | | Equity | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.55 | - 0.36 | 18.47 | | Fixed Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.09 | - 0.22 | - 0.44 | | Fixed Income | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.05 | - 0.15 | - 0.59 | | Fixed Income | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | - 0.07 | - 0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.01 | - 0.54 | 1.41 | | Commodity | WTI Crude Oil | 0.66 | - 1.72 | - 16.82 | | Commodity | London Spot Gold | 0.59 | - 0.06 | 52.44 | | Commodity | LME Copper | 0.12 | - 1.80 | 21.79 | | Commodity | Wind Commodity Index | 0.20 | - 1.90 | 28.15 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.15 | - 0.18 | - 8.24 | | Other | CBOE Volatility Index | - 2.15 | 9.40 | 9.97 | [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting that despite aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S., China has not shown signs of backing down and has retaliated in kind [1][2] - The U.S. government's attempts to leverage advanced semiconductor technology against China have not succeeded, as major U.S. chip companies like NVIDIA have exited the Chinese market, allowing local Chinese firms to fill the gap [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean export market heavily relies on China, with the American Soybean Export Association acknowledging that China is an irreplaceable market for U.S. soybeans [3][5] - Despite the cessation of soybean imports from the U.S. by China, the American Soybean Export Association continues to engage with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong agricultural ties [5][6] Group 3 - China has diversified its sources for liquefied natural gas and soybeans, turning to countries like Russia, Qatar, and Brazil, which has now become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, capturing 71.6% of the market share [6][7] - Brazilian soybeans are not only comparable in quality to U.S. soybeans but are also cheaper by 15%, making them a more attractive option for China [7][9] Group 4 - The oversupply of soybeans in the U.S. has led to significant storage issues, with reports indicating that 70% of soybean warehouses in North Dakota are full, and farmers are facing financial distress due to unsold crops [9][11] - The U.S. soybean farmers are heavily impacted by the loss of the Chinese market, which previously accounted for over half of U.S. soybean exports, leading to potential bankruptcies among farmers [11]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Agreements - The US announced the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods starting November 10, 2025, and extended the 24% "reciprocal tariff" exemption for one year, marking a significant easing of trade tensions between the US and China [2] - The US also suspended the 301 investigation measures against Chinese maritime transport, international logistics, and shipbuilding industries, while China reciprocated by halting countermeasures against US fentanyl tariffs and suspending the 24% tariff for one year [2] - The market reacted positively to these developments, with Asian stock markets and crude oil futures rising, reflecting international expectations for improved US-China trade relations [2] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - China announced an expansion of rare earth export controls, adding five new elements to the list, bringing the total to 12 restricted types, which underscores China's dominance in the rare earth sector [3][5] - China holds 37% of global rare earth reserves and over 60% of production, controlling more than 90% of the global rare earth separation and purification capacity, which is critical for high-tech industries [5] - New regulations require that products containing trace amounts of Chinese-origin rare earths must obtain Chinese approval for export, indicating that even if Western countries find rare earth mines, they cannot bypass China's processing capabilities [5] Group 3: Agricultural Commodities - China is the world's largest soybean consumer and importer, with annual consumption exceeding 120 million tons, while domestic production is only about 20 million tons, leading to over 80% reliance on imports [7] - Following a halt in soybean purchases from the US, the US soybean market faced difficulties, prompting calls for negotiations to restore trade [7] - Brazil has replaced the US as China's largest soybean supplier, with China purchasing at least 2.4 million tons from Brazil, which is nearly one-third of its usual monthly import volume [7] Group 4: Fentanyl and Drug Policy - The fentanyl issue plays a unique role in US-China trade negotiations, with the US previously imposing tariffs on Chinese goods citing fentanyl concerns, despite China's early actions to regulate fentanyl substances [9][10] - The agreement in 2025 included the US canceling the 10% fentanyl tariff, reflecting progress in cooperation on this issue [9] - China has maintained a strict anti-drug policy and has cooperated with the US on drug control since 1985, establishing frameworks for functional cooperation despite political tensions [9][14] Group 5: Strategic Implications - The coordinated use of rare earths, soybeans, and fentanyl in trade negotiations has allowed China to gain the upper hand in the US-China trade conflict, with the US making significant concessions [12][14] - The US's reliance on Chinese rare earth processing and the impact of soybean trade on US agricultural states highlight the interconnectedness of these issues [12][14] - The trade agreement reflects a balance of interests, with both sides making concessions to achieve a more stable trade relationship [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of imported beans has increased, and it is expected that the prices of bean products will bottom out and rebound. Specifically, the price centers of CBOT soybeans, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to move slightly upward in November, while the price of soybean No. 1 is expected to operate within a narrow range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Bean Market Analysis 3.1.1 CBOT Soybean Market - In 2025, the price of CBOT soybeans fluctuated. It was affected by factors such as USDA reports, South American weather, planting area adjustments, and biodiesel policies. In October, the price found strong support at 1000 cents per bushel and then rallied. It is expected to stabilize above 1100 cents per bushel in November and continue to rise slightly [15][16][108]. - The net non - commercial long positions in CBOT soybeans indicate strong bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to remain strong [19]. - There is a risk of La Nina, which is expected to last until December 2025 - February 2026 and may transition to an ENSO neutral state in 2026 [29]. - The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than last year's level, and it is expected that the high - yield estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre will be revised downwards, which will support the price of CBOT soybeans [33]. - The old - crop inventory of US soybeans has decreased, and the new - crop planting area has been reduced. The new - crop supply - demand balance is expected to tighten, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans [40][54]. - The US soybean crushing volume has reached record highs, indicating strong domestic demand [44]. - The US soybean crushing profit has decreased compared to the same period last year, while the soybean crushing profit in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has increased compared to the same period last year. Brazil's soybean crushing profit is good, and the basis is expected to remain firm [49]. 3.1.2 South American Bean Market - Brazil's soybean planting progress is in line with the same period last year, and the harvest area is expected to increase. Brazil's soybean production has been increasing in recent years, which competes with US soybeans. The export potential of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be more relaxed [62][66][70]. - Argentina's soybean supply - demand balance has tightened slightly this year, and the government's tariff policy has an impact on the international bean market [77]. - The basis of South American soybeans is expected to remain firm due to factors such as reduced export potential in Brazil and good domestic crushing profits [81]. 3.1.3 Global Bean and Oilseed Market - Global oilseed production has been increasing, mainly driven by the continuous increase in South American soybean production [85]. - The US biodiesel policy has uncertainties, and there is a risk that the policy may not be fully implemented, which may affect the demand for US soybeans [97]. - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased in the 2025/26 season due to the expected decline in US soybean production and strong demand, which is bullish for global bean prices [101]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Market Analysis 3.2.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange Bean Futures Market - The price of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal has fluctuated. In 2025, it was affected by factors such as US soybean production, South American supply, and biodiesel policies. Currently, the price is supported by increased import costs, but the upward momentum is weak. It is expected to trade in a narrow range around 3000 - 3100 yuan per ton in November [114][219]. - The price of DCE soybean oil has also fluctuated. Although the current inventory is at a historical high, the expected reduction in oilseed imports in the fourth quarter and the slowdown in palm oil inventory accumulation are expected to support the price, and it is expected to stop falling and rise after recent adjustments [8][120]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 1 has been affected by factors such as domestic production, purchase sentiment, and Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected to operate in a narrow range in November [8][201]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 2 is expected to rise slightly in November due to increased import costs, while the commercial import of US soybeans is not very active due to negative crushing margins [8][209]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bean Supply and Demand - The profit of domestic soybean crushing has narrowed, which may reduce the enthusiasm of oil mills for importing soybeans and limit the downward space of downstream oil and meal prices [129]. - In the third quarter, the arrival of South American soybeans increased, and the inventory of coastal soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil has accumulated. Currently, the export potential of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and the basis is high. The willingness of oil mills to actively import US soybeans is weak due to poor crushing margins [132]. - As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, the domestic main oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory was 125.03 million tons [137][141][149]. - The import volume of domestic soybean oil has decreased due to high inventory, and the impact on domestic prices is limited. The import volume of domestic soybean meal is very small and has little impact on domestic prices [152][154]. 3.2.3 Domestic Feed and Livestock Market - The profit of pig farming is poor, the growth rate of the sow inventory has slowed down, the inventory of laying hens has stopped increasing and adjusted, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed industry is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [164][171][175]. 3.3 Bean Operation Opportunity Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.4 Seasonal Analysis and Market Judgment - Each type of bean product has different price trends and influencing factors in different seasons. Overall, the prices of bean products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and policies. In November, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as US soybean exports, biodiesel policies, and the progress of South American soybean planting [8].