中航创新(03931)涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.1%，报26.22港元，成交额1702.23万港元。 申万宏源表示，随着下游新能源汽车市场持续扩容，1-3Q25，中国新能源车销量达1120万辆，新能源 渗透率攀升至46%，商用车电动化成为重要增量，叠加单车带电量提升，有力支撑动力电池需求。储能 市场高景气延续，国内招标与中标规模稳步增长，投资主体多元，该行预计全球储能电池出货量从2025 年530GWh跃升至2028年1343GWh。锂电行业竞争呈现头部集中与二线崛起态势，公司市占率稳步提 升，叠加锂电行业进入供需改善周期，为企业盈利改善打开新空间。 消息面上，国泰海通研报指出，11月国内动力电池装车量93.5GWh，同比增长39.2%，环比增长 11.2%；其中，三元电池装车量18.2GWh，占总装车量19.4%，同比增长33.7%，环比增长9.9%，磷酸铁 锂电池装车量75.3GWh，占总装车量80.5%，同比增长40.7%，环比增长11.6%。该行认为，随着锂电行 业下游需求快速增长，动力电池及相关关键材料企业有望受益。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on December 16, most domestic futures main contracts declined Palladium rose over 4%, platinum and PVC rose over 2%, and polysilicon, LPG, coke, and soda ash rose over 1% On the downside, Shanghai tin fell over 3%, Shanghai nickel, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and stainless steel, sugar, Shanghai zinc, and SC crude oil fell over 1% [6][7] 2. Core Views - The overall supply of the commodities market is complex, with different factors affecting each commodity The market is generally cautious, and the price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and seasonal factors [9][11][12] 3. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper prices fell from high levels The implementation of Document 770 may increase scrap copper supply SMM expects December electrolytic copper production to increase by 6 57 million tons month-on-month The copper foil sector remains highly prosperous, while copper rod and tube sectors are under pressure Copper prices are supported by new energy vehicle demand and are unlikely to fall significantly [9] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing strength within the day Although production growth is slowing, December production is expected to increase by about 3% There is a supply-demand gap, and downstream demand supports prices However, caution is needed as the peak season nears its end and purchase tax policies change [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026 The demand peak season has ended, and the market is in a supply surplus situation with geopolitical uncertainties affecting prices Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the December production forecast to decline The downstream demand is weakening due to factors such as funds and weather The price is expected to fluctuate [14] PP - The PP downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in the same period, and the supply is increasing with new capacity The demand is weakening at the end of the peak season The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening with the exit of the agricultural film peak season The supply is increasing with new capacity The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [17] PVC - The PVC开工率 is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is poor The export is increasing at the cost of price reduction, and the inventory pressure is high The upward space is limited in the traditional demand off-season [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low but rose within the day The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak However, with the end of the year approaching, there may be winter storage demand The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [20] Urea - The urea futures price fluctuated slightly The supply is affected by gas restrictions, and the demand is in the off-season but has some resilience The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21][22]

碳酸锂：非经一番寒彻骨 哪得梅花扑鼻香 碳酸锂市场 2026 年年报 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年上半年上游锂矿石到下游正极材料、电芯价格整体延续此前两年的下 跌趋势，碳酸锂价格于6月份跌破6万元大关；下半年市场供需好转预期改善，动力电 池和储能电池对碳酸锂的需求携手放量带动碳酸锂连续四个月库存去化，价格于四季 度回升至10万元关口附近。由于钴资源供应受到非洲主要产地地缘因素影响价格年内 显著走强，三元材料价格较磷酸铁锂系列表现相对坚挺。 ——2025 年碳酸锂市场回顾与 2026 年展望 据供需平衡表测算，2026年锂盐供需两旺同时年度级别看库存累积的态势仍 将延续，储能端对锂资源需求超预期向好，能一定程度对冲新能源汽车需求增速下滑 的担忧。锂盐价格仍处于向历史低位区间（6万元下方）回归的进程中。2026年上半 年平衡表的主要矛盾是新能源汽车需求阶段性回落；2026年下半年平衡表的主要矛盾 是国内外锂盐新增产能的集中释放。与此前的宽幅波动相比，即便将来锂价新的周期 到来，随着低成本盐湖及回收提锂（生产环节成本较低）占比提升，锂盐长期稳定运 行的基础 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The production of primary lead remains stable overall, but the shortage of raw material supply restricts further significant production growth. The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The production of recycled lead shows signs of recovery, but the growth is less than expected. The supply of waste batteries is tight, which restricts the release of recycled lead production capacity. If environmental control remains stable and waste battery supply stays at the current level, recycled lead production is expected to maintain a stable growth trend. On the demand side, orders in the leading energy storage battery sector are relatively stable, supporting the demand for lead. However, due to the "trade - in" policy, the traditional replacement market is dull. Downstream battery enterprises face inventory pressure and are cautious in purchasing high - priced lead sources. Overall, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,115 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,976.5 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars. The spread between the 01 - 02 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,017 lots, down 1,395 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 238 lots, an increase of 1,158 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,735 tons, down 3,064 tons; the LME lead inventory is 236,925 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,150 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 49.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.81 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,771 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by WBMS is 22,000 tons, an increase of 45,500 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 43.14%, an increase of 7.58%. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 68.49%, a decrease of 13.32%. The weekly output of primary lead is 38,600 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 100 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by ILZSG is - 2,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons. The monthly global lead ore production by ILZSG is 383,300 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 98,300 tons, a decrease of 52,300 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 3,812.24 tons, an increase of 2,304.32 tons. The average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,098.42 tons, an increase of 612.28 tons. The average daily price of waste batteries is 9,851.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.42 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,661,000, a decrease of 350,000. The average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,400 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The daily Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,934.16 points, down 13.49 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000. The monthly new energy vehicle production is 1.71 million vehicles, an increase of 130,000 [3]. Industry News - Trump may reduce tariffs on some over - priced goods and considers an immediate interest - rate cut as the "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman. Trump starts the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading. Hassett believes the Fed has enough room for a significant interest - rate cut. The US job openings in October reached the highest level in five months, but recruitment remains sluggish. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict continues. Zelensky refuses to "cede territory" and will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the interest rate at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expects the interest - rate cut cycle may end [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract declined on December 9, with a trading volume of 512,215 lots (-87,152) and an open interest of 575,421 lots (-17,708). The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount narrowed [1] - On the cost side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained flat, and the price of lepidolite remained flat. On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased last week, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November; the 3C shipments weakened; the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons (-200 tons). The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories. In summary, the news of lithium mine restart was repeated. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was at a high level. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment remained strong. The spot market trading was light, and the demand growth stagnated. In the short term, the fundamentals showed strong supply and weak demand. Under the position limit, the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with previous days. For example, the near - month contract closed at 92,580 yuan/ton on December 8, down 220 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On December 9, the trading volume of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 512,215 lots, a decrease of 87,152 lots, and the open interest was 575,421 lots, a decrease of 17,708 lots [1] Spot Market - **Lithium - related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,165 - 1,184 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) averaged 1,610 - 1,645 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery - related Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other battery - related materials also changed. For example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 105,000 - 105,750 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased [1] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories [1] News - In November, Chile's copper exports fell to 4.28 billion US dollars, and lithium exports were 167.41 million US dollars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks are experiencing an upward trend, driven by expectations of a supply shortage in the global lithium market by 2027, which may lead to price increases for lithium carbonate [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose by 4.27% to HKD 51.8, while Tianqi Lithium (09696) increased by 3.31% to HKD 48 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract saw a rise of over 3%, peaking at CNY 96,800 per ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Huatai Securities predicts a potential supply shortage in the global lithium market by 2027, which could push prices above CNY 100,000 per ton in the second half of 2026 [1] - If a sustained shortage occurs in 2027, lithium carbonate prices could further increase to CNY 120,000 per ton due to low sensitivity of downstream sectors to price changes [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Three significant changes in the industry have been observed: strong production resilience on the supply side, accelerated inventory reduction driven by demand, and a prolonged capital expenditure bottom for Chinese enterprises over the past three years [1] - Global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 5.4 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%, while energy storage battery shipments are expected to hit 170 GWh, up 98.5% year-on-year [1] - The production rhythm for lithium salt projects is anticipated to slow down from 2026 to 2028, indicating that the lithium cycle's turning point is approaching [1]

Event Overview - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony will be held on December 18-19, 2025, at the Venus Royal Hotel in Shenzhen, with an expected attendance of over 1,200 offline participants and 30,000 online viewers [2]. Company Developments - Recently, Zhongchuang Innovation established a new company, Zhongchuang Innovation Technology (Xinyang) Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 2.8 billion yuan, in partnership with a state-owned enterprise [2]. - Zhongchuang Innovation has formed several joint ventures with state-owned enterprises, including a company in Handan with a registered capital of 4 billion yuan, focusing on battery sales, recycling, and utilization [3]. - The registered capital of Zhongchuang Innovation's Xiamen company has increased from 2.5 billion yuan to 3.9 billion yuan, marking a 56% increase, as the company prepares for the completion of its lithium battery project with a capacity of 30 GWh [3]. Production and Supply Chain - The frequent establishment of new companies indicates an increase in orders for Zhongchuang Innovation, leading to accelerated expansion. For instance, a new supply agreement with Nord Holdings involves a total supply of 373,000 tons of copper foil over three years, valued at approximately 40 billion yuan [4]. - Zhongchuang Innovation's financial report for the first three quarters of 2025 shows revenue of approximately 28.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, and a net profit of approximately 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 280% [5]. Technological Advancements - Zhongchuang Innovation has showcased a complete marine battery energy storage solution, introducing a second-generation 320Ah marine battery cell with a cycle life exceeding 12,000 times [6]. - The company has developed a series of large storage battery cells with significant attention, featuring safety technologies and high energy density, which are expected to reduce component count and failure rates in traditional storage systems [7]. Market Opportunities - The upcoming years are projected to be favorable for Zhongchuang Innovation and related energy storage battery manufacturers, supported by government policies that promote the scale construction of new energy storage systems, with a target of 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027 [7].

Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The market demand for phosphate cathode materials is expected to continue growing due to the resonance of demand from energy storage and power batteries [2] - The energy storage market is entering a rapid development phase driven by multiple factors, including advancements in large cell technology, market reforms, and increased demand from emerging applications like AI data centers [2] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles in both passenger and commercial vehicles is increasing, providing additional support for power battery growth [2] Group 2: New Product Development - The company's new product series, including CN-5 and YN-9, align well with market trends towards larger energy storage cells and enhanced fast-charging capabilities for power batteries, with a rapid increase in shipment proportions this year [2] Group 3: Industry Competition - Despite strong downstream market demand, the phosphate cathode materials industry faces profitability pressures and intense competition [3] - Future competition will largely depend on companies' technological innovation capabilities and overall strength in the supply chain [3] - The company aims to enhance its product cost-performance ratio and core competitiveness through continuous innovation and high-quality, differentiated products [3] Group 4: Capacity Expansion Plans - The company plans to cautiously manage its capacity expansion based on market conditions, leveraging its extensive construction experience and efficient team to enhance expansion efficiency [3]

Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for phosphate cathode materials is expected to continue growing due to the resonance of energy storage and power battery needs [2] - The energy storage market is entering a high-speed development phase driven by multiple factors, including advancements in large cell technology and supportive policies [2] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles is increasing, providing growth support for power batteries [2] Group 2: New Product Development - The company's new product series, including CN-5 and YN-9, align well with market trends towards larger energy storage cells and enhanced fast-charging capabilities [2] - The shipment proportion of new products has rapidly increased this year [2] Group 3: Industry Competition - Despite strong downstream market demand, the phosphate cathode materials industry faces profitability pressures and intense competition [3] - Future competition will depend on companies' technological innovation capabilities and overall industry chain strength [3] - The company aims to enhance its product cost-performance ratio and core competitiveness through continuous innovation and high-quality differentiated products [3] Group 4: Capacity Expansion Plans - The company plans to cautiously manage its capacity layout based on market conditions [3] - Expansion efficiency is expected to be significantly advantageous due to the company's extensive construction experience and efficient team [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of December 4, 2025, the spot main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume increasing by 20,135 to 663,458 lots and the open interest decreasing by 2,207 to 560,629 lots. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite decreased. On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output from salt lakes decreasing and that from other raw materials increasing. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the output of power batteries rebounded last week. For terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipments weakened, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1]. - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts increased by 770 to 10,422 tons, and the social inventory decreased, with smelters and others reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, and there are repeated reports of the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and downstream players still have a wait - and - see attitude. The spot market trading is sluggish, demand growth has stagnated, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On December 4, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate were 90,680 yuan/ton, 92,260 yuan/ton, 92,480 yuan/ton, and 92,480 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 1,520 yuan/ton, + 200 yuan/ton, + 280 yuan/ton, and + 280 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) were 94,000 yuan/ton and 91,550 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,162 US dollars/ton, decreasing by 18 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of different grades of lepidolite decreased, for example, the average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,590 yuan/ton, decreasing by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 172,000 yuan/ton, increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials decreased slightly, for example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 104,950 yuan/ton, decreasing by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. New Energy Vehicle Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 2.11 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 32% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4 million units, with a growth rate of 10%. In October, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 93,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [1]. Company News - Yihu Co., Ltd. is expected to exceed its annual lithium carbonate production plan of 300 tons [1]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated that its 40,000 - ton lithium extraction project is running smoothly, with a daily output of 60 - 70 tons, a purity of over 99.9%, and stable equipment operation [1].