天津市副市长李文海介绍，论坛期间，天津将承办两场平行论坛活动，举办"投资中国·跨国企业领袖交 流会"和"遇天津·见未来"民企沙龙，聚焦前沿领域、新兴热点，同与会嘉宾进行交流探讨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 为何将"剧变中的产业"作为主题之一？对这一环节的讨论有何期待？世界经济论坛执行董事梁锦慧在新 闻发布会现场接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，对企业领导者而言，关键在于如何利用技术推动 传统产业变革以及如何在技术驱动的转型中建立竞争优势。许多企业家都希望了解如何投资技术、技术 融合的潜在影响以及其中存在的机遇。同时，他们也关心如何为新的工作岗位储备员工，提升员工的技 能水平。在"剧变中的产业"主题下，这些话题都会涉及，既关注机遇，也审视发展中的风险。 国家发展改革委国际合作司副司长陈帅在发布会上表示："截至目前，已有来自90多个国家和地区的近 1800位嘉宾注册参会，人数为近年之最。参会规模的逐渐扩大显示出年会日益提升的影响力和中国超大 规模市场的吸引力。年会筹备期间，国家发展改革委和世界经济论坛围绕议题议程的设置积极沟通，将 在年会期间共同举办共建'一带一路'、新质生产力两场主题分论坛。" 每经北京6月 ...

Group 1 - The 16th Summer Davos Forum will take place in Tianjin from June 24 to 26, with approximately 1,800 guests from over 90 countries and regions attending [1] - The theme of this year's forum is "Entrepreneurship in the New Era," focusing on five main topics: "Interpreting the Global Economy," "China Outlook," "Industries in Transformation," "Investing in Humanity and the Earth," and "New Energy and Materials" [1] - The forum aims to showcase China's achievements in high-quality economic development and its commitment to high-level opening-up, sharing opportunities and benefits of the Chinese development model with the world [1] Group 2 - Asia is driving 60% of global economic growth, with China contributing half of that, and is at the forefront of innovation, technological advancement, and industrial transformation [2] - The Summer Davos Forum will provide a platform for constructive dialogue and meaningful collaboration, allowing participants to deepen their understanding of trends and opportunities in China and Asia [2]

欧佩克月报：预计2025年下半年全球经济将表现良好，此前全球经济在表现优于预期。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the inflationary impact caused by rising oil prices [1] - The pulse-like increase in crude oil prices is likely to exceed expectations, and the surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [1][2] - Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver are performing strongly, and the escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - Global large institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A-share market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Israel launched a strike on Iran on the early morning of June 13th local time, and the military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities will continue for several days [1] - Iran is seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1] - In the worst-case scenario of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Iranian oil exports may decrease by 2.1 million barrels per day, and oil prices could soar to the range of $120 - $130 [1] - The US will not change the current level of tariffs on Chinese goods even if the trade agreement between the two countries is not finalized [1] - European pension funds have started to increase foreign exchange hedging, leading to a large amount of US dollar selling [1] - Trump's tariffs will cause the US inflation rate to rise by at least 3% year-on-year and cost ordinary households $1000 in income [1] - US President Trump must hand over the command of the California National Guard to Governor Newsom [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated, but the global economic outlook has been stabilized by the China-US phased framework agreement [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI final value was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion [1] - The spot price of 40 - foot containers on the Shanghai - US West Line has exceeded $5000 [1] - China is addressing cut - throat competition, and the European Central Bank's 8th interest rate cut and Germany's 30% expansion of military scale have promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Global Asset Allocation - The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel will likely cause a more intense and extensive pulse - like increase in crude oil prices [1] - Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, are performing strongly, and silver is expected to start a trending upward movement [2] - The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - The surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [2] - Global large institutional investors are shifting from US assets to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A - share market [2] - The global market has entered an inflation shock mode, and the A - share market has entered a defensive state [2]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the global economy, according to Tim Rocks, Chief Investment Officer at Evans and Partners [1] Oil Market Analysis - Although oil prices may experience a short-term spike, Iran accounts for only 3% of global oil production, which limits the potential impact on the market [1] - OPEC currently has sufficient spare capacity to mitigate risks associated with potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply [1] Investment Strategy - The company is looking for opportunities to increase positions amid market volatility [1] Risk Factors - A significant risk remains regarding the potential blockade or attack in the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran and is a critical transit route for approximately 20% of the world's crude oil [1] - Any disruption in this area could lead to major shocks in the energy market [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran may have a lasting impact on oil prices, potentially affecting inflation data if oil prices do not decline in the short term [1] - The current situation is highly tense, but the stock market is assessing whether this will have a lasting impact [1] - Geopolitical events often get absorbed within days or weeks if their impact on the global economy is not significant or enduring [1]

欧洲央行有能力应对未来的冲击。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：全球经济经历了巨大的冲击。 关税威胁为经济带来了极大的不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon discussed global economy and free trade in light of the high tariff policies of the US government, agreeing to deepen bilateral relations including in security [1] Group 1 - The conversation focused on the implications of US high tariff policies on global trade [1] - Both leaders emphasized the importance of a rules-based international order and identified New Zealand as a key partner in promoting a free and open system [1] - There was a consensus on further enhancing bilateral relations, particularly in the area of security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained below 50% for three consecutive months, indicating a low point in the global economy [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - In May, the global manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical threshold of 50% for three months in a row [1] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI stood at 48.4% in May, unchanged from the previous month, and has been below 49% for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in the region's manufacturing sector [1] Group 2: Country-Specific Data - The manufacturing PMI for the United States in May was 48.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a decline for four consecutive months [1] - The data suggests that the imposition of tariffs in the U.S. has contributed to the continued weakening of the manufacturing sector [1]

澳洲联储助理主席亨特：较高的美国关税将对全球经济产生拖累。 ...