Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also points out that each commodity has its own supply - demand characteristics and market influencing factors, and investors should make decisions based on these factors and market signals. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold rebounded at night on Tuesday, with London gold back above $4000. The US employment data was weak, and domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [4]. - Silver's tight situation is gradually easing, and it is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [4]. Base Metals - Copper prices oscillated weakly. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic weekly start - up data improved. It is advisable to wait for clearer macro signals [3]. - Aluminum prices may continue to decline in the short term. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [3]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Some alumina plants carried out early maintenance or reduced loads, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to change [5]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. The supply decreased slightly, and the organic silicon industry planned to cut production by 30% [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices have support in the short term but face weak long - term expectations. The demand was strong in November - December, but the long - term demand was expected to decline [5]. - Polysilicon prices are affected by news. The supply decreased slightly, and the market was disturbed by news, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Tin prices oscillated strongly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the market was concerned about the continued low exports from Indonesia [5]. Black Industry - Rebar futures are undervalued, and hot - rolled coil futures are overvalued. The supply and demand of steel were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [7]. - Iron ore prices may decline. The supply and demand of iron ore were weak, and the futures were in a forward - discount structure [7]. - Coking coal prices may decline. The steel mills continued to lose money, and the coking coal futures were in a forward - premium structure [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: US soybeans are short - term strong, but the bullish factors have basically emerged. The domestic market may be weak in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [8]. - Corn: As the supply of corn in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is expected to be oscillating and strong. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [9]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. The international sugar market may decline in the long term, and the domestic market will follow [9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see. The international cotton harvest rate was lower than in previous years, and the domestic commercial inventory was higher [9]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply pressure decreased, but the demand was weak [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply was abundant, and the demand increased seasonally [9]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see. The high - quality apple production decreased, and the inventory decreased [10]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand declined [10]. - PVC: It is recommended to short or conduct a reverse spread. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [10]. - PTA: It is recommended to short the processing margin in the far - month contracts. The supply pressure was large in the long term [10]. - Rubber: It is recommended to operate in a band - trading manner. The raw material prices were strong, and the inventory increased [10][11]. - Glass: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was high [11]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak [11]. - MEG: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the demand entered the off - season [11]. - Crude oil: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply was affected by sanctions and geopolitical risks, and the demand was in the off - season [11][12]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate. The supply and demand improved marginally, but the overall contradiction was still large [12]. - Soda ash: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand were balanced [12]. - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was in the off - season, but the export news had a certain impact [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that tariffs will lead to a slowdown in the global economy and global demand [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to negatively impact global economic growth [1] - The slowdown in global demand is a significant concern for various industries [1] - The implications of tariffs may affect trade relationships and economic stability worldwide [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].