s 加蒙期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/11 | | 指标 | 5/12 | 6/3 | 6/6 | 6/9 | 6/10 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3481 | 3482 | 3200 | 3488 | 3483 | -5 | | | | BU06 | 3481 | 3479 | 3200 | 3516 | 3522 | 6 | 43 | | | BU09 | 3416 | 3456 | 3478 | 3488 | 3483 | -5 | 27 | | | BU12 | 3246 | 3291 | 3312 | 3320 | 3317 | -3 | 26 | | HETET | BU03 | 3226 | 3260 | 3247 | 3267 | 3255 | -12 | -5 | | | 成交量 | 325098 | 406179 | 269123 | 463328 | 365488 | -97840 | -40691 | | | 持仓量 | 38 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/6/9 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1134.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 982.0 | 963.0 | 997.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1043.0 | 1018.0 | 1054.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1121.0 | 8.0 ...

美国市场正处于一个罕见的"叠加时刻"：特朗普既像典型的共和党那样大力减税，又延续民主党级别的 超高支出，美股则重现80年代去监管与90年代科技牛市的合体盛宴。 近日，美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新报告中犀利指出，美国政府正在以7万亿美元的支出 对抗5万亿美元的收入，2万亿美元的赤字缺口让美元在5%国债收益率下依然暴跌。市场欢乐的背后， 是美元崩跌、债务激增与AI驱动下的不确定性。 "减税+撒钱"下的危局，美元失色，债务无底 美银的数据显示，自大选以来，代表权贵科技与金融的"bro billionaire"股票篮子暴涨45%，而代表特 朗普票仓的小盘股罗素2000指数却下跌7%。关税、减税、制造业回流、去监管——所有利好政策一应 俱全，但小投资者却无人问津。 这种分化正在重塑市场格局。Z世代和千禧一代面对高不可攀的房价选择了退却，转而通过股票和加密 货币为未来储蓄并对冲AI风险。经纪交易商与房屋建筑商的比值已达16年高点，而20-24岁大学毕业生 的失业率在过去三个月飙升至6%，远高于2023年12月的4%。 特朗普"既要减税，也要豪掷"，7万亿美元的财政支出，配合每年5万亿美元的收入 ...

s 加蒙期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/4 | | 指标 | 4/30 | 5/26 | 5/30 | 5/30 | 6/3 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3408 | 3526 | 3457 | 3457 | 3482 | ટર | -44 | | | BU06 | 3408 | 3539 | 3452 | 3452 | 3479 | 27 | -60 | | | BU09 | 3351 | 3478 | 3414 | 3414 | 3456 | 42 | -22 | | | BU12 | 3215 | 3297 | 3237 | 3237 | 3291 | 54 | -6 | | HET | BU03 | 3246 | 3258 | 3201 | 3201 | 3260 | ਦੇਰੇ | 2 | | | 成交量 | 280344 | 392268 | 579926 | 579926 | 406179 | -173747 | 13911 | | | 持仓 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on May 29 were 3514, 3507, 3483, 3308, and 3266 respectively, with daily changes of 33, 18, 40, 42, and 39, and weekly changes of -5, -30, 8, 18, and 17 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on May 29 was 510,411, with a daily increase of 102,426 and a weekly increase of 170,744. The open interest was 419,343, with a daily increase of 12,843 and a weekly increase of 18,164 [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on May 29 were 3480, 3520, 3280, 3640, and 3780 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -100, 10, and 30, and the weekly changes were 30, 0, -100, 70, and 80 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The Shandong basis was -34, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 35. The East China basis was 6, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 5. The South China basis was -234, with a daily change of -133 and a weekly change of -95 [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread was -241, with a daily change of 21 and a weekly change of 47. The 06 - 09 spread was 24, with a daily change of -22 and a weekly change of -38. The 09 - 12 spread was 175, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -10 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 69, with a daily change of -45 and a weekly change of 7. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 475, with a daily change of -23 and a weekly change of 3. The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 106, with a daily change of -29 and a weekly change of 7 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -107, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -1101, with a daily change of -91 and a weekly change of -87 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on May 29 was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.8 and a weekly change of 0.5. The gasoline market price in Shandong was 7482, with a daily change of 16 and a weekly change of 77. The diesel market price in Shandong was 6581, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of 62. The residue oil market price in Shandong was 3795, with no daily or weekly change [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 contracts showed varying degrees of change. For example, the BU06 contract decreased by 35 - 34 points on a daily basis and 60 - 52 points on a weekly basis [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 407,985 on May 28, a daily decrease of 50,689 and a weekly increase of 87,988. The open interest was 406,500, a daily increase of 26,024 and a weekly increase of 1,891 [4]. Spot Market - **Low - end Prices**: The low - end prices in different regions had different trends. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market increased by 30 points both daily and weekly to 3,480, while the price in the East China market remained unchanged at 3,520 [4]. - **Specific Brands**: The price of Jingbo (Haiyun) increased by 20 points daily and 40 points weekly to 3,610 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The basis in different regions changed. For example, the Shandong basis increased by 90 points weekly to - 1, and the East China basis increased by 60 points weekly to 39 [4]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 03 - 06 spread increased by 27 points daily and 47 points weekly to - 262 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 58 points daily and 83 points weekly to 112 [4]. - **Profits**: The asphalt Marrow profit increased by 52 points daily and 75 points weekly to 35. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit increased by 22 points daily and 89 points weekly to 497 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on asphalt - related market indicators, including prices, volumes, spreads, and profits. 3. Summary by Categories Futures Contracts - BU主力合约 price on 5/22 was 3539, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 18 [4]. - BU06 price on 5/22 was 3555, with a daily change of 15 and a weekly change of 31 [4]. - BU09 price on 5/22 was 3481, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 34 [4]. - BU12 price on 5/22 was 3301, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 34 [4]. - BU03 price on 5/22 was 3250, with a daily change of T and a weekly change of - 6 [4]. - Futures trading volume on 5/22 was 381836, with a daily change of 42169 and a weekly change of 93530 [4]. - Futures open interest on 5/22 was 419968, with a daily change of 18789 and a weekly change of 53795 [4]. Spot Market - Shandong market low - end price remained at 3450 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - East China market low - end price was 3520 on 5/22, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 [4]. - South China market low - end price remained at 3380 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - North China market low - end price was 3570 on 5/22, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 [4]. - Northeast market low - end price remained at 3700 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - Shandong basis on 5/22 was - 89, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 18 [4]. - East China basis on 5/22 was - 19, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of 2 [4]. - South China basis on 5/22 was - 159, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 18 [4]. - 03 - 06 spread on 5/22 was - 302, with a daily change of - 14 and a weekly change of - 37 [4]. - 06 - 09 spread on 5/22 was 71, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of - 3 [4]. - 09 - 12 spread on 5/22 was 180, with a daily change of - 5 and no weekly change [4]. - 12 - 03 spread on 5/22 was 51, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 40 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - Asphalt Brent crack spread on 5/22 was 37, with a daily change of ટર and a weekly change of - 20 [4]. - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 5/22 was 457, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of - 2 [4]. - Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit on 5/22 was 81, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of - 3 [4]. - Import profit (South Korea - East China) on 5/22 was - 108, with no daily change and a weekly change of 18 [4]. - Import profit (Singapore - South China) on 5/22 was - 1015, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil price on 5/22 was 64.9, with a daily change of - 0.5 and a weekly change of 0.4 [4]. - Gasoline Shandong market price on 5/22 was 7415, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 49 [4]. - Diesel Shandong market price on 5/22 was 6431, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 8 [4]. - Residue oil Shandong market price on 5/22 was 3795, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 5 [4].

立期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】12925 2025年5月16日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月15日 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2593.8 | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2760.0 | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4880.0 | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | | SH2505 | 2535.0 | | SH2509 | 2567.0 | | SH基差 | 58.8 | | CHOCAL SEDO | 000 | | SH星差 | 58.8 | 224.8 | -166.0 | -73.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH2505-2509 | -32.0 | -161.0 | 129.0 | 80.1% | | V2505 | 4899.0 | 4860.0 | 39.0 | 0.8% | | V2509 | 5041.0 | 4986.0 | 55.0 | 1.1% | | V基差 | -19.0 | -80.0 | 61. ...

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].