塑料产业日报 2026-01-05 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6449 | -23 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6240 | -30 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6449 | -23 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6496 | -13 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 397441 | 72633 持仓量(日,手) | 508923 | 7498 | | | 1-5价差 | -209 | -7 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hol [201] 1295号 2025年 | | | | 纪元菲 | 20013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ate | ರಿನಲ್ಲಿ | -35 | -3.68% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | રેક | 600 | -35 | -5.83% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1265 | 1300 | -35 | -2.69% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound. For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to stay in a low - level震荡 state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,050 yuan/ton and closed at 117,870 yuan/ton, a change of 0.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 112,448 (+23,926) lots, and the open interest was 118,618 (-3,306) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued a slight rebound, supported by the improved liquidity expectation as the probability of a 25 - bp Fed rate cut in December approached 90%. However, fundamentals suppressed the price, resulting in limited rebound strength with an amplitude of about 1.12%. In November, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a 14.85% month - on - month decrease, narrowing the surplus situation [1] - The nickel ore market was quiet with a wait - and - see attitude. Nickel ore prices were under pressure due to recent lower transactions and weak downstream ferronickel prices. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and northern mines had not started new tenders. Downstream iron plants, facing losses, tried to lower raw - material prices, and some planned production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium was +25 [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands were generally stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 50 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 32,595 (+244) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 80,361 (-14,747) lots, and the open interest was 96,947 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel continued to be led by the Shanghai nickel price and showed a slight rebound, but the amplitude was only 65 yuan/ton, the smallest in recent times. Fundamentals changed little recently, and the continuous rebound trend might continue due to the increased Fed rate - cut expectation, but the rebound strength was expected to be limited [3] - Market confidence had increased recently, and transactions improved to some extent. However, due to fundamental constraints, spot trading cooled today compared with yesterday, and quotes were basically flat. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now[3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern persists. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is recommended to wait and see[4]. - For urea, the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom. With cost and export policy support, the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips[6]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term strategy is currently recommended, with fast - in and fast - out operations. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. - For PVC, the industry has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With low enterprise profits and high inventory, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[11][12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the benzene - to - styrene price difference is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily[15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - side impact has shifted, and seasonal demand has started to pick up[18]. - For polypropylene, the market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to continuously decline. There is a risk of valuation correction[22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 2.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.54%, at 445.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories at the Fujairah port all increased[2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now[3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price increased by 30, the Lunan price increased by 30, the Inner Mongolia price increased by 2.5, the 01 contract on the futures market increased by 27 yuan to 2094 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread was + 14, at - 107[3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to rapid short - term rise and high near - term inventory[4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong remained stable, the price in Henan decreased by 10, and the price in Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 34. The 1 - 5 spread was + 7, at - 64[6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom[6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: The rubber price rebounded. The main rubber - producing areas in Thailand were affected by floods, and the exchange's RU inventory and warehouse receipts were low. The spot prices of some rubber products increased. The tire factory operating rates were weak, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased[9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish short - term strategy with fast - in and fast - out operations, and partially establish a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4489 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 293 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased, the demand - side operating rate decreased, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased[10]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term due to strong supply and weak demand[11][12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased[14]. - **Strategy**: The benzene - to - styrene price difference has room for upward repair, and the styrene price may stop falling temporarily[15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 103 yuan/ton, strengthening by 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[17]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost - side impact shifting and seasonal demand picking up[18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 165 yuan/ton, strengthening by 32 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[19][20]. - **Strategy**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 56 yuan to 6774 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 3 dollars to 829 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 34), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 38 yuan (- 8). The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some devices restarted, the PTA load decreased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased[21]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of valuation correction due to high PX load and low downstream PTA load[22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 28 yuan to 4684 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4635 yuan. The basis was - 31 yuan (+ 12), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+ 6). The PTA load decreased, some devices were under maintenance, the downstream load increased, the inventory decreased, and the processing fees decreased[23]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 23 yuan to 3896 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 16 yuan to 3904 yuan. The basis was 18 yuan (- 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 yuan (+ 15). The supply - side load decreased, some devices were under maintenance or restarted, the downstream load increased, the import volume was expected to be 9.5 tons, the East China outbound volume was 0.4 tons on November 25, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the production profits were negative[26]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives a medium - term outlook for each variety, including "Oscillation", "Oscillation with an upward bias", etc. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December, overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and positive signals from the China - US presidential call. However, as the off - season deepens, the fundamentals have limited highlights, and the rebound momentum of the futures market weakens. Iron ore prices are strong due to expected restocking demand, and coking coal fundamentals are not significantly weakened, with support for far - month contracts. Glass prices are suppressed by high inventory, and soda ash prices are restricted by oversupply despite cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and port inventory decreased slightly. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. The contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to run strongly [4][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased and demand was stable. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio recovered, and the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate [4][10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After profit repair and environmental protection relaxation, supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand supported inventory depletion, but cost support weakened, and there are expectations of price cuts. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [4][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply remained low, and fundamentals were not significantly weakened. There are restocking expectations for winter storage. Near - month contracts are affected by delivery, expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4][13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support remains, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and price pressure is high. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [4][16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: High costs support the price bottom, but supply - demand is loose, suppressing the upside. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [7][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][16]. 4. Market Data Steel - Spot market transactions were average. Steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm was high, and output increased slightly. Demand was resilient, and inventory continued to decline, but it was still higher than the same period last year [9]. Iron Ore - Port transactions decreased. Spot prices mostly rose. Off - season hot metal may decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and restocking demand has not been released. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Scrap Steel - Arrivals increased this week, and EAF profits improved. Supply increased, demand was stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. Coke - Futures followed coking coal to oscillate under pressure. Spot prices were stable. Supply increased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory in coking enterprises increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - Futures oscillated under pressure. Spot prices declined. Domestic supply recovery was slow, imports were high, demand weakened, and inventory in mines increased slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Glass - Spot prices were stable. Supply may be disrupted, and mid - and downstream inventory was high. If there is no more cold - repair, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Soda Ash - Spot prices declined. Supply was flat, demand was weak, and inventory decreased. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [14][16]. Manganese Silicon - Futures prices first rose and then fell. Spot prices were stable. Cost support was strong, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16][17]. Silicon Iron - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. High costs supported the price bottom, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [18]. 5. Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased on November 25, 2025 [100]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on November 25, 2025, with a 0.08% increase in the past 5 days, a - 1.93% decrease in the past month, and a - 5.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [101].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].

路透：法国雷诺已终止与法雷奥合作开发无稀土电动车马达的项目，并正寻求成本更低的中国供应商。消息人士指出，此举主要是为了降低成本，中国供应商在价格上具备明显优势。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].