Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a significant rebound amid easing trade war tensions, but Goldman Sachs warns of substantial uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, driven by rising policy uncertainty and declining business confidence [2][3]. - Key indicators show that the proportion of respondents expecting economic activity to decline is nearing historical highs, alongside potential slowdowns in real income growth and ongoing financial tensions [3]. Market Predictions - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4,600 points, representing a 17.9% decline from recent closing prices, while high-yield credit spreads may widen to 788 basis points [3]. - Traditional hedging tools like long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may fail to effectively mitigate stock market risks [4]. Investment Strategies - Gold is identified as the best hedge against recession, with prices potentially reaching $3,880 per ounce by year-end, driven by increased central bank purchases and shifts in private investor allocations [6]. - The report highlights that global gold ETF holdings are only 1% of the U.S. Treasury market size, indicating significant potential for price increases with even minor reallocations from other assets [6]. Oil Market Insights - Oil put options are recommended as a quality hedge in recession scenarios, with Brent crude oil prices potentially averaging $53 per barrel in a U.S. recession context [7]. - The report suggests that oil prices may experience larger declines in the next recession due to OPEC's current high spare capacity [7]. Structural Trends - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "4D structural trends" that will favor gold and copper in the long term, including de-dollarization, increased defense spending, energy risk mitigation, and insufficient copper mining investments [9][10]. - The report anticipates that European defense spending will rise from 2% to 3% of GDP over the next five years, which will increase demand for copper and other metals [9]. Copper Market Outlook - Insufficient investment in copper mining could lead to price recoveries, with estimates suggesting copper prices may reach $10,600 per ton by December 2026 under non-recession conditions [10]. - In a recession scenario, copper prices could fall below cost support levels, potentially reaching $6,750 per ton [10].

Group 1 - A joint proposal from 36 German companies in China emphasizes the need for Germany to increase investment in China to maintain its economic significance, warning against the "de-risking paradox" [1] - The proposal highlights the importance of R&D collaboration with Chinese partners in future industries such as battery technology, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots, where China shows strong leadership [1] - Many German companies derive over one-third of their revenue from China, with some innovation activities deeply localized, indicating the critical role of the Chinese market in their global competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in China's business environment and market access have increased predictability for German companies, with a projected 25% increase in new investments in China in 2024, amounting to €5.7 billion [2] - A survey indicates that 92% of members of the German Chamber of Commerce wish to remain in the Chinese market, reflecting a rational choice amidst complex geopolitical conditions [2] - The German government’s coalition agreement emphasizes cooperation with China in alignment with German and European interests, particularly in addressing global challenges [2] Group 3 - The shared interests of China and Germany in maintaining a free trade system are becoming more apparent against the backdrop of U.S. tariff policies, with both countries being manufacturing and technology powerhouses [3] - There is significant potential for cooperation in areas such as digital transformation, green energy, and climate governance, which can enhance global economic stability [3] - The current economic dynamics suggest that China's growth potential and market stability are crucial for Germany, advocating for a more confident and pragmatic approach to bilateral relations [3]

特朗普总统（左）在第二任期首次施政方针演讲中强调了高关税政策的合理性(3月4日、华盛顿、REUTERS） 高桥彻：拜登前政府推进了构建排除中国的供应链的"去风险化"。而大肆宣扬"贸易逆差恶性论"、使 关税战争升级的特朗普现政府对世界经济安全来说只能是风险。对于今后的供应链，各国和企业或许正 在产生应该先去除美国这一风险的想法…… 高桥彻 ： "美国梦前所未有地蓬勃发展"，美国总统特朗普在3月4日的施政方针演讲中，夸耀了重新上 台一个半月以来的成果。然而，"特朗普2.0"提出的美国梦对世界来说只是一场噩梦。使自由贸易体制 陷入危机的关税战争就是最显著的例子。 3月4日，特朗普政府对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品启动了原则上为25%的高关税，对中国产品也将 10%的额外关税提高到20%。其他国家也不例外。宣布将从4月2日起，实施对高关税国家征收同等关税 的"对等关税"。 容易成为目标的是存在巨大的对美贸易顺差且关税税率较高的国家和地区。 从2024年美国方面为贸易逆差的对象来看，中国大陆以2954亿美元排在第一，在逆差额最大的前15 个国家和地区中，亚洲占了9个。 其中新兴市场国家较多，关税税率总体较高。 世界贸易 ...