FICC日报 | 2025-04-29 股指震荡调整，银行板块再度走强 市场分析 国内政策稳步推进。宏观方面，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。 央行副行长表示，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕；将发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增 量政策。国家发改委副主任表示，将加力推动既定政策落地见效，包括提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万 亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等，这些政策大部分将在二季度落地。商务部副部长表示，将设 立大型成套设备出口专项信贷等支持工具，让外贸企业更有底气接单。人社部副部长表示，我国就业政策工具箱 充足，将根据形势变化及时推出。海外方面，美国财长贝森特表示，正与18个交易伙伴进行定制化协议，首笔贸 易协议可能最早在本周或下周达成。 策略 总的来看，关税政策仍给市场带来压力，同时市场等待科技股财报，美股三大指数涨跌不一。中国再度否认同美 国进行关税问题磋商，彰显坚定立场。国内政策工具箱储备丰富，各项政策稳步推进，有助于托底经济。A股财报 披露进入尾声，当前仍建议重点关注IH机会。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地 ...

Group 1 - The Jinan Municipal Development and Reform Commission held a training session to accelerate the implementation of national financial support policies, focusing on industry policies, financial policies, venture capital fund policies, project approval, and credit support [1] - The government emphasizes financing support for small and micro enterprises, establishing a four-level financing coordination mechanism to extend loan renewals to all small and micro enterprises with genuine financing needs [1] - Financial regulatory authorities will address the pain points and challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in loan renewals by coordinating with relevant banks [1] Group 2 - There is a strong demand for technological transformation and upgrades among enterprises, with expectations for significant adjustments in re-loan policies for technological innovation and upgrades by 2025 [2] - Local governments and enterprises are encouraged to prepare projects in various sectors, particularly focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green equipment applications to leverage policy benefits [2] - Commercial banks face pressures from narrowing interest margins and local debt risks, which may constrain credit issuance [2] Group 3 - Equity financing support is crucial, especially for technology and emerging industry enterprises, with the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund aimed at strengthening innovative enterprises [3] - The national venture capital guidance fund is expected to focus on cutting-edge strategic emerging industries such as AI, hydrogen energy storage, embodied intelligence, 6G, and quantum technology [3] - Local governments, outstanding enterprises, and venture capital fund managers are advised to seize opportunities for early action and positive engagement with relevant departments to achieve a win-win situation for fund implementation and enterprise financing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ample policy reserves of the central government and the establishment of a National Venture Capital Guiding Fund to support innovation and technology development in key areas [1][8]. Group 1: Central Government Policy Reserves - The Ministry of Finance has reserved sufficient policy tools and space to address potential uncertainties, including consumer subsidies such as childcare allowances, which could benefit approximately 15.5 million children, leading to an annual subsidy scale of around 150 billion [3]. - Another consumer subsidy involves expanding the "trade-in" program, which has a multiplier effect of approximately 2.2 times. The government has allocated 300 billion in special bonds for this program, which could significantly boost consumption in various sectors [4]. - Investment-driven policies may include issuing special bonds for major projects, with the possibility of increasing bond issuance to support the construction of significant projects in response to rising uncertainties [5][6]. Group 2: National Venture Capital Guiding Fund - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a National Venture Capital Guiding Fund, focusing on investment in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, future energy, and biomedicine [8][9]. - This fund aims to support seed and early-stage enterprises, similar to the DARPA model in the U.S., which has successfully driven technological breakthroughs through market-oriented funding and support mechanisms [9][10]. - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to leverage the advantages of a new type of national system to enhance key technology research and development [10].

Economic Policy - The fiscal policy will be more proactive this year, with a deficit rate set at around 4% and a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year, marking the highest levels in recent years [5] - The People's Bank of China plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.6%, indicating room for reduction [7] Technology Development - A National Venture Capital Guiding Fund will be established to support the growth of innovative enterprises, aiming to attract nearly 1 trillion yuan in local and social capital, focusing on hard technology [9] - The introduction of a "Technology Board" in the bond market is planned to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and tech companies [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will enhance support mechanisms for tech companies, including a "green channel" for unprofitable companies to go public [10] Education Development - The government aims to expand quality education resources, with a target to increase undergraduate enrollment in "Double First-Class" universities by 20,000 this year [12] - Financial support will be provided for early childhood education and student assistance programs, benefiting over 34 million students [13] Consumer Expansion - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance consumer spending through initiatives like trade-in programs and expanding the range of eligible products for subsidies [15] - New loan interest subsidy policies will be implemented to stimulate consumer spending in key sectors, including dining, health, and childcare [16] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising nearly 700 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by nearly 5% [23] - A notable shift in capital flows is observed, with approximately $3 billion flowing into Chinese theme funds since early February, reversing a previous trend of outflows [24] Global Market Trends - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with major indices falling, and Nvidia's market value dropping by approximately 164.2 billion USD [27] - The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut, with revised GDP growth forecasts indicating challenges in the Eurozone economy [30][34]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a special action plan to boost consumption and support private enterprises in emerging and future industries, alongside significant infrastructure projects [2]. Group 1: Economic Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will soon release a special action plan aimed at boosting consumption [2]. - In the previous year, over 8,000 major projects were introduced to private capital, with plans to support investments in emerging and future industries this year [2]. - The NDRC aims to combine the cultivation of new momentum with the upgrading of traditional momentum, focusing on fostering emerging industries and future industries [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Investment - The government plans to launch attractive major projects in sectors such as railways, water conservancy, and nuclear power [2]. - A National Venture Capital Guidance Fund will be established to enhance and strengthen innovative enterprises [2]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The NDRC will issue specific plans to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, promoting the exit of outdated and inefficient production capacities [2]. - The initiative aims to expand the supply of mid-to-high-end production capacities to better meet market demand changes [2].