证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 中央城市工作会议快评 城市发展迈入新阶段 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 解读： 城市工作会议由来已久，本次是第五次。第一次是 1962 年在北戴河举行的第一次全国城市工作会议，主 要讨论城市基本定位与问题，背景是大规模工业化带来的城市人口迅速扩张带来生活等用品供给不足，会 议的主要指示是集中力量组织生产。 表1：历次城市工作会议梳理 | 年份 | 会议 | 简介 | 背景 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 《关于当前城市工作若干问题的指示》：已经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference held on July 14-15 has indicated a new direction for urban development and domestic demand in China, shifting focus from population migration to the quality enhancement of urban functions [1][3][7] Group 1: Urbanization and Economic Impact - China's urbanization rate reached 67% in 2024, a significant increase from less than 20% at the beginning of the reform era, leading to a substantial rise in labor productivity and GDP growth [2][3] - The average labor productivity of agricultural workers transitioning to non-agricultural industries has increased by 3 to 5 times, contributing approximately 12% to GDP growth from 2015 to 2023 [2] - The consumption demand from newly urbanized populations is expanding, with per capita consumption expenditure 1.8 times higher than that of rural residents, translating to an annual increase in consumption demand of about 300 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Changes in Demand Dynamics - The marginal effect of urbanization on GDP growth has decreased, with the contribution of a 1% increase in urbanization rate dropping from 0.8 percentage points in 2015 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023 [3] - There is a significant gap between the registered urbanization rate and the actual urbanization rate, with about 140 million people yet to achieve urban citizenship, leading to a disparity in public service access and consumption potential [3][4] - Addressing the public service gap could release an additional 1.2 trillion yuan in annual consumption from the unurbanized population [3] Group 3: Transition to Modern Urban Development - The shift from urbanization to building modern people-oriented cities emphasizes "innovation + service" over traditional "population + land" inputs, aiming to enhance overall productivity [4][5] - The current urban demand growth is driven by consumption and innovation, with 72% of urban demand growth now coming from these sources, compared to 65% from investment during the urbanization phase [4][5] - The focus is now on quality indicators such as energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of high-tech industries, reflecting a transition from quantity to quality in domestic demand [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Future Directions - Collaborative development of urban clusters and metropolitan areas is expected to unleash strong investment momentum, with significant projects planned in regions like the Chengdu metropolitan area [5] - The green transition of cities, which account for 85% of national energy consumption, represents a substantial domestic market, with the value of green low-carbon industries projected to reach 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [6] - The emphasis on enhancing urban infrastructure safety and resilience is expected to generate substantial investment opportunities, with projected investments of 1.2 trillion yuan for old pipeline renovations and 500 billion yuan annually for flood control upgrades [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant moment in China's urbanization strategy, reflecting both continuity and change compared to the 2015 conference, particularly in urbanization rates and real estate policies [1][4][5]. Comparison with 2015: Two Constants - High-level attendance remains consistent, with all seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee present, indicating the central government's strong coordination on urban issues [3][12]. - The timing of the conference aligns with the initiation of new five-year plans for both national and urbanization strategies, serving as a critical starting point for future urban development [4][14]. Comparison with 2015: Four Changes - **Shift in Urbanization Assessment**: The assessment of urbanization has shifted from rapid growth to stable development, with the current urbanization rate at 67% and a target of nearly 70% by 2029, suggesting a potential slowdown in growth as per international trends [5][20]. - **Focus on High-Quality Urban Renewal**: The emphasis has shifted to "high-quality urban renewal" rather than the aggressive "shelter improvement" plans of 2015, indicating a long-term approach to urban development with a focus on existing infrastructure rather than expansion [6][17]. - **Increased Attention to Urban Safety**: The conference introduced a new focus on urban safety, emphasizing the need to maintain safety standards and enhance urban resilience through infrastructure improvements and social stability measures [7][23]. - **Identification of New Industrial Opportunities**: The conference highlighted new opportunities in urban renewal, service industries, and pollution reduction initiatives, indicating a shift towards sustainable urban development practices [8][25][26]. Future Tracking - Key follow-up actions include monitoring the implementation documents that will detail the conference's resolutions, tracking high-level government activities related to urbanization, and observing how urban issues are integrated into subsequent central meetings and documents [9][27].

Core Insights - China's urbanization is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency in existing urban areas [1][2] - The recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for future urban development [1][2] Urban Development Strategy - The conference outlined a vision for modern urban development, aiming to create innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart cities [2] - Key themes include optimizing urban structure, transitioning to high-quality urban development, and ensuring urban safety [2][3] Historical Context - Since the last Central Urban Work Conference in 2015, there has been a significant shift in urban development focus from expansion to enhancement of existing urban areas [2][3] - Urbanization levels have increased by approximately 1.1 percentage points annually since 1978, with an expected urbanization rate of 67% by the end of 2024 [3] Challenges and Responses - The conference acknowledged ongoing urban issues, such as high-rise buildings and the need for green transformation, and proposed measures to address these challenges [3][4] - Emphasis was placed on improving public services and addressing urban "diseases" through effective governance and planning [3][5] Future Directions - The conference highlighted the need for a new real estate development model and the importance of urban renewal in enhancing urban living conditions [3][5] - Future urban work will focus on integrating population, industry, and transportation planning to create more comfortable and convenient living environments [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend during the week of July 7-11, 2025, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 1.50 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 550 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2][14] - Major broad-based indices rose, with the All A Index increasing by 1.71%, and small-cap stocks outperforming, as evidenced by the 2.36% gains in both the CSI 1000 and the ChiNext Index [14] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains, with increases of 6.12%, 4.41%, and 3.96% respectively, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors experienced declines [14] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" theme has gained traction since the Central Economic Committee meeting at the end of April, with a focus on "stabilizing employment" and other livelihood issues, which may constrain the implementation of capacity reduction policies [3][14] - The domestic GPU market is witnessing a surge with two major domestic GPU manufacturers receiving IPO approvals, filling the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [15] - The upcoming earnings disclosure period is expected to provide significant incremental information for the market, with sectors showing strong mid-year performance likely to attract investor attention [16] Group 3 - On July 11, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced revisions to the compilation scheme of the ChiNext Composite Index, including the introduction of a monthly removal mechanism for risk warning stocks and an ESG negative removal mechanism [17] - Seven fund companies have applied for ETFs related to the ChiNext Composite Index, indicating growing interest in this segment [17] Group 4 - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.90% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 12.029% since inception [4] - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.83%, with a cumulative excess return of -5.62% since inception [5] - The Balanced Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.61%, with a cumulative excess return of 4.41% since inception [6] - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.83%, with a cumulative excess return of 16.24% since inception [7] - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.06%, with a cumulative excess return of 21.16% since inception [8] - The Consumer Equity Fund Selection Index decreased by 0.27%, with a cumulative excess return of 14.92% since inception [9] - The Technology Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 1.24%, with a cumulative excess return of 14.84% since inception [10] - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.94%, with a cumulative excess return of -3.36% since inception [11] - The Cyclical Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.72%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.12% since inception [12]

Group 1 - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, but further efforts and policy measures are needed to accelerate this process [1] - The fundamental issue in the real estate market is the lack of market confidence among consumers, driven by weakened expectations regarding employment and income [3][5] - The imbalance in supply and demand is critical, as the market relies heavily on first-time buyers, whose participation is essential for the sales of higher-end properties [5] Group 2 - Suggestions have been made to issue more government bonds, potentially up to 40%-50% of GDP, to facilitate urbanization and convert unsold housing into affordable housing [6] - The current urbanization process is still incomplete, and there is a significant demand for housing among those who can only rent [8] - It is proposed that a targeted investment of several hundred billion could revitalize key real estate companies, addressing the funding issues that hinder timely project delivery [8][10] Group 3 - The approach to addressing the challenges in the real estate sector should not solely focus on legal aspects, as neglecting to assist struggling companies could have broader negative economic implications [10] - The government has indicated a preference for supporting projects rather than directly bailing out real estate companies, as reflected in the publicized white list [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "private handmade dumplings" as a business model among middle-aged women and full-time mothers in urban areas reflects a shift towards low-cost entrepreneurship, driven by the need for income while managing family responsibilities [7][9][10]. Group 1: Business Model and Characteristics - The handmade dumpling business is primarily operated by women, often full-time mothers or unemployed/retired individuals, who face limitations in capital and time [3][4][9]. - This model allows for low-cost production, requiring minimal investment in equipment and space, making it accessible for those with limited resources [9][10]. - The products are characterized by their handmade quality, which offers a unique appeal compared to mass-produced items, emphasizing craftsmanship and personal touch [13][14]. Group 2: Economic Context and Trends - The concept of "courtyard economy" has been recognized in national policy, highlighting small-scale production within residential spaces as a viable economic model [10]. - Urban family workshops differ from rural courtyard economies, focusing on non-agricultural, purely manual production methods [11][12]. - The interaction between family workshops and urbanization has led to a transformation in industrial structure, with handmade products emerging as a response to the limitations of urban living [19][27]. Group 3: Social Dynamics and Gender Roles - The shift towards female-led family workshops indicates a change in traditional gender roles, with women taking on primary responsibility for these businesses [33][36]. - Despite the economic independence gained through these ventures, women still navigate complex social dynamics, including the maintenance of family stability and traditional roles [37][40]. - The success of these businesses often relies on local community support and word-of-mouth rather than broader marketing strategies, reflecting a grassroots approach to entrepreneurship [30][31].

Core Insights - China's total population has been declining for three consecutive years since peaking in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027, 1.3 billion by 2039, and 1.2 billion by 2047 [2][11] - The number of newborns is expected to drop below 9 million by 2025, fall below 8 million by 2028, and potentially dip below 7 million by 2035, with a slower decline in the subsequent decade [10][11] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, expected to reach an ultra-aging society by 2032, and will match Japan's current aging level by 2048 [14][16] Population Trends - The fertility rate among women aged 15-29 is significantly higher than in Japan and the UK, but the fertility rate for women aged 30-49 is notably low, indicating a need for policies encouraging childbirth among older women [24][25] - The decline in marriage rates is attributed to gender imbalance, with a male-to-female ratio of approximately 115:100 for those born between 2006-2010, which may lead to severe gender disparities in the upcoming decade [33][36] - Educational disparities also contribute to declining marriage rates, as there are more men with lower education levels compared to women with higher education, complicating the marriage prospects for educated women [3][38] Urbanization and Migration - Urbanization rates have slowed, with the average annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to about 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [42][44] - The average age of migrant workers has risen to 43.1 years, with over 30% being over 50, indicating a trend of aging among the workforce and a decrease in population mobility [46][48] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases [62][64] Economic Implications - The industrial workforce has been declining since 2012, with projections indicating a drop from 2.32 billion in 2012 to 2.13 billion by 2024, highlighting a shift towards the service sector [72][79] - The service sector's share of GDP is expected to rise, with the third sector projected to account for 57% of GDP by 2024, compared to 36% for the secondary sector [69][79] - The aging population and rising dependency ratio will increase demand for services, necessitating a focus on developing the service industry to stabilize employment [80][100]

Group 1: Population Changes and Trends - The total population of China has been decreasing since its peak in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and below 1.3 billion by 2039 [2][7] - The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 9.54 million, lower than previous predictions, with further declines anticipated in subsequent years, potentially dropping below 9 million in 2025 and 8 million in 2028 [5][6] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, with expectations to reach super-aged status by 2032, and projections suggest it will match Japan's aging level by 2048 [8][11] Group 2: Fertility Rates and Marriage Trends - Fertility rates among women aged 15-29 are higher than those in Japan and the UK, but rates for women aged 30-49 are significantly lower, indicating a need for policies that encourage childbirth among older women [2][16] - The declining marriage rate is attributed to gender imbalance and educational disparities, with a notable surplus of males in younger age groups and a higher number of educated women than men in higher education [25][30] - The average marriage age in China is lower than in several developed countries, yet the overall fertility rate remains low, suggesting that early marriage does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates [16][17] Group 3: Urbanization and Migration Trends - Urbanization rates are slowing, with the annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to approximately 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [32][36] - The proportion of migrant workers moving across provinces is decreasing, with an increasing average age of migrant workers, indicating a trend towards local employment rather than migration [39][40] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases, reflecting ongoing urbanization trends [46][51] Group 4: Economic Implications of Population Changes - The share of the secondary industry in GDP is declining, while the tertiary sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating that the tertiary sector will account for 63% of GDP by 2024 [57][59] - Employment in the secondary industry has been decreasing since 2012, with a notable drop in industrial employment numbers expected to continue [59][64] - The aging population and rising dependency ratios will increase demand for services, suggesting a need for policies that support the growth of the service sector [65][70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs predicts that China's housing prices have only declined by half compared to the U.S. during the 2006-2012 downturn, and further price drops are expected until 2027 [1][3][6] - The report suggests that the decline in China's housing prices is a natural economic result, driven by factors such as the disparity between housing price increases and income growth, leading to a situation where young people are heavily indebted [8][10] - The article discusses the differences in economic strategies between the U.S. and China in handling real estate bubbles, emphasizing that China aims to maintain stability and prevent systemic risks [12][14] Group 2 - The article highlights that over 70% of Chinese households' assets are tied up in real estate, contrasting with the U.S. where most investments are in the stock market [16] - It notes that urbanization in China is still ongoing, with approximately 150 million people expected to move to urban areas, which may support housing demand in major cities [18][20] - The article concludes that while housing prices are generally on a downward trend, different regions exhibit varying price movements, with first-tier cities likely to see price stability or appreciation, while third and fourth-tier cities may face continuous declines [22][24]